Social Groups and Voting: A
Comparative View
Who typically votes in Democratic
societies?
• According to recent research by Jeff Manza &
Ruth Braunstein of New York University
(2008), in many rich democracies national
election turnout is high (80% or more).
• In societies with less turnout (60% or less),
resources make all the difference. Resource
rich groups vote at higher percentages than
disadvantaged groups.
• In the U.S. a large turnout gap exists (25% or
more) between advantaged groups –
professionals v unskilled workers – hispanics v
whites, and disadvantaged groups.
• Not surprisingly, political parties and
candidates have significant incentives to pay
greater attention to groups with high rates of
participation. Resources translate to political
power.
Recent Voting Trends
• There is evidence (despite the 2008 U.S.
election) of declining voter turnout in
established democracies in the world, since
the 1950’s.
• Reasons for the decline:
• (1). The end of compulsory turnout laws in
many countries, or lack of enforcement, ie.;
Argentina (weak enforcement) Australia,
Belgium (Strict enforcement.)
Voting Trends Cont.
• (2). Disillusionment among young voters.
• (3). Lack of choice—the declining influence of
viable left-wing parties, especially in Europe
has been a factor.
• (4). Declining “social capital” (See studies by
Robert Putnam) among various groups:
neighborhood associations, unions,
community/fraternal groups, etc.
Voting Behavior
• Rise of “new politics” (away from religion and
class) focusing on lifestyles (culture wars),
identity, symbolic conflicts (abortion), and
national identity have led to some political
parties that mobilize voters around these
issues: The Green Party in Europe and Right
Wing anti-immigration parties (Front National
(FN) of Jean Marie le Pen in France for
example.
• Research on the “new politics” is mixed. Some
evidence suggests a decline in voting related to
class, although it is not definitive. Social
democratic parties in Europe seem to see a slight
increase in middle class voters.
• Conservative parties are winning votes from nontraditional sources like working class voters (often
in response to nationalist or anti-immigrant
sentiment or anti-tax, anti-government appeals.
Dynamic of Voting Trends.
Increased family wealth and social mobility –
children of working class parents go to college
and change their class identity and increasingly
identify with conservative political alignments.
Disintegration of working class neighborhoods,
weakening of worker solidarity, and economic
instability caused by globalization encourage
some working voters to support conservative
candidates.
• Many middle class voters out of concern of
social issues, may turn to center-left
candidates.
• Virtually every Western European country has
some form of party with religious roots –
Christian Democratic Parties – that possess a
center-right political orientation.
Politics of Gender
• Since the 1980’s, many rich democracies have
seen women leaning increasingly to the left of
men in many Western European countries and
a slight liberal edge in the U.S.
• Contributing factors include changing roles of
women in the family and society, family
instability and exposure to a saturated market
place have turned women to the left.
Demographic Changes
• Declining numbers of unionized, blue collar
workers.
• Rising share of secular voters across the
Western industrial societies.
• Expansion of white-collar, non-manual
workers has been important.
• Aging populations are redefining electoral
politics and the issues associated with them.
• Immigration has likewise created a new
dynamic and will create new electoral
alignments as the children of immigrants
become citizens, just about everywhere.
• 1972 – Hispanics were 3% of the U.S.
population. Today they are over 10% of the
population. By the middle of the century they
will be 25% of the population.
• Result of Hispanic voters – immigration policy,
labor rights, and healthcare reform have been
addresses by both major U.S. parties.
Conclusion
• As electoral coalitions change, party platforms
and campaign strategies will have to change
accordingly.
• Left of center parties will have to solidify their
support of women and ethnic minorities to
replace the loss of blue collar voters.
• Center Right parties will have to make a
concerted effort to increase the numbers of
minorities and women candidates and party
workers. They may also have to develop more
moderate views on immigration and healthcare.
Reference
• Jeff Manza & Ruth Braunstein (2008), Beyond
the Ballet Box: Social Groups and Voting in
Democratic Polities, Harvard International
Review, Spring 2008, 40-43.