How to Use Tools to Enable Lean Product Development P2D2 I D E Kevin Otto A TDFQ I2 D O V DFQ C D O V PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 1 Kevin Otto v Product Genesis Inc. (www.productgenesis.com) • Complete outsourced R&D • Vice President, Leveraged Development v Product Development Systems and Solutions Inc. (www.pdssinc.com) • Focus on R&D improvement • Principle Consultant • TDFSS, DFSS Master Black Belt v Massachusetts Institute of Technology • Previously Associate Professor of Mech. Eng. • Center for Innovation in Product Development PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 2 My Perspective… v What does “lean” mean for product development? • Value stream mapping – right data • Flow – flow of correct decisions • No rework – stop undoing made decisions v Great. How do I do it? • All the process mapping, restructuring, teaming • Start enabling your engineers to provide options • Stop your engineers from providing simply single-point designs, requirements, .... PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 3 Part of the Value The cost of fixing a single defect: v $35 during the design phase v $177 before procurement v $368 before production v $17,000 before shipment v $690,000 on customer site Mr. Hiroshi Hamada, President of Ricoh Source: European Community Quarterly Review, Third Quarter 1996 PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 4 R&D - Typical Phase Gate Development (Cooper) But really, there are three distinct activities happening 1. Product Portfolio Definition and Launch Planning 2. Technology Development 3. Product Commercialization PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 5 Screen Printer Industry 288 Cancelled HIGH 3000 HiE GENERAL 3000 265 LOW 2000 Competitor A LOW Portfolio configuration impacts cost, not just product configuration. Medium - High Commonality GENERAL Low - Medium Commonality Competitor B HIGH LOW GENERAL HIGH 3000 UltraFlex Competitor C High Commonality PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 6 Effective Research & Development Product Portfolio Development P2D2 I D E Product Commercialization DFQ C D O V A Product definitions Technology definitions Platform definition Lean fast integration Verification and Validation TDFQ I D O V Technology Development Technology readiness Robustness and scalability PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 7 Tools & Best Practices You generate increased value through a unique set of design & statistical tools… v Tools that are focused on developing… v • the right DATA within each Phase of Product Development! • the right DATA to enable clarity in decision making • the right DATA to reduce risk though identification & management during Gate Reviews PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 8 Working the Systems Vee Overall Customer Satisfaction S S target actual Customer Needs System Simulation Models System Subsystems Components Ytarget Systems requirement flowdown y target nestimated Y = F(y,n,t) Subsystem Technical Models Subsystems requirement flowdown y = f(x,n,t) Component adjustment Component Technical Models xtarget nestimated Component Development PDSS Yactual Subsystem adjustment Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT y actual nactual xdesigned nactual 9 CTF Metrics - Scorecards CTF Output Variability CTF Output (Y) Design For Six Sigma Scorecard Performance Characteristic Voltage Units V Y/N Y Transfer Function Formula (enter below) 2 Specification Target USL 2 2.1 Estimates Based on Mean Condition of x's and n's Listed Below Predicted Performance Capability 6σ Score σ -shift LSL mean: µ s.d.: σ Short/Long Confidence z DPM 1.9 2 0.008654 11.55 0.00 0.0 x's, Input Control Factors No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Variables Characteristic X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 I Units ohms ohms ohms volts ohms ohms amp Range Min Max 20 2 2 1.2 2 500 50 50 30 50 Contribution to Variability Sensitivity % 0 0.00% -0.3108194 32.03% 0.4176437 32.04% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.7444038 32.04% -10.449776 3.89% Control factors (x) PDSS Specification USL LSL Sample/Database Statistics mean: µ s.d.: σ Short/Long Confidence 20 0.04899 6.433029 0.015758 4.788771 0.01173 30 0.03873 2 0.004899 2.686714 0.006581 0 0.000163 z -408.25 -408.25 -408.25 -774.60 -408.25 -408.25 0.00 6σ Score σ -shift Control factor Variability Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 10 DPM 1000000.0 1000000.0 1000000.0 1000000.0 1000000.0 1000000.0 933192.8 Start with the Customer’s System Manager Handling of Customers Customers Draw in Credit Phone Approval Customers Approval Customers Advertising Where is the value? Credit Agency Network R e q for payment Incoming Goods Display Stock Goods Clerks Goods Shelf Space Check Out Customers with goods POS Network Goods Clerk Stock Drugs Fill S c r i p s Cash, check Warehouse R e -s u p p l y Pharmacist Bottling Prescription Supervisor Revenue daily totals Transfers Bag transport Cash, check Credit data HQ/Bank and credit Daily Totals Network Added Revenue Intervention Tray transport Network Store Intercom Order Goods Backoffice Items Sold Data N f Clerks Network CNfR (r2 R r2 r1 CNfR (r Reduced Expense = dollars nRt n Number R Labor of failures rate per year R Labor rate t Time to deal with each failure n Number R Labor of failures rate per year t Time to deal with each failure R Labor t Time rate to deal with each failure t Time to deal with each failure Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT r1 ) $9.00 r) Reducedn Expense Number of failures = nRt per year PDSS − C Average N Number customeroftransaction customer transactions per year dollars count $9.00 600,000 C Average customer transaction = 2 − 1 dollars $9.00 N Number f Fraction of customer of customers transactions paying per via yeare-payment count percent 600,000 40% N Number Average customer of customer transaction transactions per year dollars count $9.00 600,000 f Fraction R Prime of customers Rate paying via e-payment percent percent 40% 4% f Fraction Number of customer of customers transactions payingper via year e-payment count percent600,00040% System reliability of bank-to-checkout using R Primer Rate 2 percent percent 4% 99.999% Avaya equipment R Prime Fraction of customers Rate paying via e-payment percent 40% 4% System reliability of bank-to-checkout of bank-to-checkout using percent using r 2 System r 1 reliability percent percent 99.999% 99.919% Avaya reliability equipment non-Avaya of bank-to-checkout equipment using r 2 System Prime Rate percent 99.999% 4% Avaya System reliability of bank-to-checkout using percent r 1 equipment $69 percent 99.919% System System reliability non-Avaya reliability of bank-to-checkout of equipment bank-to-checkout using using r1 percent percent99.999% 99.919% Avayanon-Avaya equipment equipment Reduced Expense = nRt $69 System reliability of bank-to-checkout using percent 99.919% $69 non-Avaya equipment Reduced Expense n Number of = failures nRt per year count 1 Added Revenue C Orders = C Average = customer (r2 − r1 ) Added Revenue CNfR transaction Added Revenue = CNfR (r2 − r1 ) $69 1$60.00 1 $60.00 6 count $/hr $60.00 1 hr 6 $360 $/hr hr $60.00 6 $360 Client Value of Avaya Solution: $429 hr 6$360 count $/hr $/hr hr count Client Value of Avaya Solution: $360 $429 Client Value of Avaya Solution: $429 11 Client Value of Avaya Solution: $429 Identify Critical Customer Requirements PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 12 Develop Quality & Predictability through the Identification & Measurement of Critical Functions… Variation in Energy Flow & Transformations Focus on variation in the context of the Laws of Conservation of Energy & Mass WHAT exactly do we measure? Variation in Mass Flow & Transformations These are leading indicators of reliability & quality Variation in Information Flow & Transformations “Statistical Engineering” PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 13 System Block Diagrams … complete with flows of the physics! Store StoreRadar Radar Radar *AC* Deploy Deploy Radar Radar Radar Sometimes above Surface *AC* Warfighting Human HVAC Surface Air Surface Air Signal Display Display & & Control Control Contacts Contacts E M- S i g n a l Transfer Transfer EM-Signals EM-Signals E M- S i g n a l Filter/Process Filter/Process EM EM-Signals -Signals *AC* Inside Pressure Hull E M- S i g n a l Heat E M- S i g n a l Open/Close Open/Close Water Water && Pressure Pressure Seal Seal Cooling Water into Electronics Freshwater Cooling Water fromElectronics Hydraulic Forces Seawater & Acoustic Sig. Forceinto Seawater structure Filter Filter/ / Process Ac. Process Ac. Data Data Ac. Signal Ac. Signal *AC* signal sealed Freshwater Ac. Signal from Active Sonar Trans./Rec. Trans./Rec. Sound Sound Pulses Pulses Filter/Process Filter/Process ECM-Signals ECM-Signals ECM -S i g n a l *AC* Captain Display Display&& Store Store Contacts Contacts WARFIGHTING WARFIGHTING CONTROL CONTROL *AC* Display Display&& Control Control sealed Seawater *AC* ECMData ECM-Data *AC* Transfer Transfer ECM ECM-Signals Signals *AC* Display Display classification classification data data Signal *AC* Store Store Periscope Periscope *AC* Periscope *AC* Air from Airspace Draginto Seawater *AC* Warfighting Human HVAC AC Transmit/ Transmit/ Receive ReceiveECM ECM-Signals Signals ECM - S i g n a l Drop In *AC* Ac. Signal *AC* Filter/Process Filter/Process Acoustic AcousticData Data Ac. Signal Transfer Transfer Data Data sealed Seawater Display Display&& Store Store Contacts Contacts ac. signal Ac. Signal Warfighting Human HVAC Opt. Signal *AC* Hold/Launch Hold/Launch Torpedo Torpedo Torpedo *AC* Transfer TransferTo To Launch Launch Tube Tube *AC* Interface Interface Human/Fire Human/Fire Control Control Signal *AC* Track Track Projectiles Projectiles Trajectory Trajectory Surface Air Periscope *AC* Transfer Transfer ECMECM Signals Signals Opt. Signal Open/Close Open/Close Water Water && Pressure PressureSeal Seal Surface Air Store Store Torpedos Torpedos Torpedo Display Display&& Control -ControlIFF IFF Signals Signals Open Openfor for Loading Loading Warfighting Human sealed Seawater Antenna *AC* sealed Surface Air *AC* Signal Warfighting Human HVAC Deploy DeployIFFIFFAntenna Antenna Antenna *AC* Transfer Transfer IFF-Signals IFF-Signals IFF- S i g n a l *AC* Interpret/ Interpret/ Process -ProcessIFF IFF Signals Signals IFF-S i g n a l Transfer Transfer IFF-Signals IFF-Signals IFF- S i g n a l *AC* Heat Warfighting Human HVAC Open/Close Open/Close Water Water && Pressure PressureSeal Seal Surface Air Antenna IFF- S i g n a l AC Transmit/ Transmit/ Receive ReceiveIFFIFFSignals Signals IFF-S i g n a l *AC* sealed Surface Air Surface Air Signal Torpedo Torpedo Control Control Signal “Deploy Weapon” Interface Interface Human/Fire Human/Fire Control Control(Mod.) (Mod.) Track Track Module Module Weapons Weapons *AC* Sometimes above Surface *AC* “Status” Always under Water Air Tracking Signal Always under Water Distribute Distribute and and Collect CollectSignals Signals (Mod.) (Mod.) Force into structure Transmit Transmit Force Force “Go To” Signal *AC* Module Signals Humans Materials HVAC Provide Provide Bulkhead Bulkhead Opening Opening Seal SealSignal Signal aannddEEEE Sealed Seawater Always under Water Opt. Signal Transmit/ Transmit/ Receive ReceiveOpt. Opt.&& Radio Signal Radio RadioSignals Signals Surface Air Surface Air IFF-S i g n a l Air Increase Increase Air Air pressure pressure AC Signal *AC* Torpedo Store -Store IFF IFF Antenna Antenna Periscope Opt. Signal *AC* Warfighting Human HVAC Torpedo Signal from/to Torpedo Seawater. A i r &T o .r Deploy Deploy Periscope Periscope Heat Warfighting Human HVAC Warfighting Human “Launch Torpedo” Signal Seawater Signal from/to Torpedo *AC* Radio Signals Seawater Seal SealTorpedo Torpedo Antenna ECM - S i g n a l Surface Air Display Display&& Control Surf. Control Surf. Contacts Contacts Radio Radio Control Control Seawater Highpressured air Open/Close Open/Close Water Water && Pressure PressureSeal Seal Ac. Signal from Passive Sonar Heat Torpedo Signal from/to Torpedo ECM - S i g n a l sealed Surface Air HVAC Noise, Vibration Transfer Transfer ECMECM Signals Signals Heat Cool CoolAir Airfor for Electronics Electronics Seal SealSignal Signal aannddEEEE Surface Air Signal ECM - S i g n a l Warfighting Humans Cooling Water fromElectronics *AC* Ac. Signal Surface Air Antenna *AC* Warfighting Human HVAC Cooling Water into Electronics *AC* Sense SenseSignal Signal Deploy Deploy ECMECM Antenna Antenna Surface Air E M- S i g n a l E M- S i g n a l Noise, Vibration Deploy DeployTowed Towed Array Array Array Antenna Warfighting Human HVAC Interpret Interpret acoustic acoustic signal signal *AC* Noise, Vibration Array Store StoreECMECMAntenna Antenna Transmit/ Transmit/ Receive -ReceiveEM EM Signals Signals Ac. Signal Freshwater & Ac. Signal Seal Seal Acoustic Acoustic Signal Signal *AC* Warfighting Human HVAC Warfighting Human HVAC AC sealed Surface Air Interpret Interpret acoustic acoustic signal signal ECM -S i g n a l Transfer Transfer Data Data Ac. Signal Heat Store Store Towed Towed Array Array *AC* Heat Seal Seal Acoustic Acoustic Signal Signal Freshwater Always under Water Signal Radar E M -S i g n a l *AC* Heat Display Display classification classification data data Captain Seawater & Acoustic Sig. Transfer Transfer EM-Signals EM-Signals *AC* Warfighting Human HVAC Module Weight and Loads Module/Underwater Materials HVAC Humans Seawater *AC* Module Signals Always under Water Module/Underwater Weld In Modules You have a mapping from top level requirements to these flows Bolt On PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 14 Potential FMEA and RCA SPT indicates vapor? SV2 opens Initialization 4 cylinders for n? seconds SV1 open SV4 closed SV2 closed (delayed) Engine starts SPT indicates no vapor? Ream of Paper Cooling SV1 open SV2 open SV4 closed SV4 closes SV1 opens SV2 closes SV4 opens SV1 closes Ink Level Indication Jetted Ink Display Status Delivered Print Status Indication Jet Ink SV2 open until HP2 says close SV1 closed unless SPT says open (1 sec) SV4 open Ink System Block Diagram Store Ink Heating Vapors SV1 closed SV2 open until HP2 says close SV4 open Engine shuts down SV4 closes SV1 opens Deliver and Store Paper Position Ink Display Ink Level Defrost Engine shuts down SV4 closes SV1 opens Customer Needs Increment and Hold Paper Process Data Input Data SV4 opens SV1 closes SV4 closes SV1 opens SV2 opens Pick Paper Engine shuts down SV2 closes Shutdown SV1 open SV2 closed SV4 closed Load / Store Paper 110/220V AC Customer / Product States Supply Power Remove Heat Heat Capture Vapor Filter Flow Hot Gases Cool air Item Function Potential Failure Mode Potential Effect(s) of Failure S e v C l a s s Potential Cause(s) of Failure O c c u r Current Design Controls D e t e c t R P N Recommended Action(s) 0 Responsibility and Target Completion Date Action Results Actions Taken S e v O c c u r D e R t t P e N c 0 FMEA everything: business plan, requirements, concept, schedule, … This generates requirements to metrics to models to ... PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 15 v These require definition • Fixed standards • Exchange standards v Incorporate robustness at the interface! • Scalable parameters • Robustness parameters Paper Handling x Cartridge Air Handling Air Handling Aligned Paper Paper paper advance position x Jetted Ink x Print Handling Electronics Electronics • Flows at boundary • Attachments Cartridge Each module has Paper Handling v Print Handling Interface Definition Paper Ink advance commands Cool air Cool air Cartridge position Paper position 12 V Cool air x Application Layer Explorer, ftp, telnet Presentation Layer html, jpeg, mpeg Session Layer DNS Transport Layer TCP Network Layer IP Data Link Layer MAC 10BaseT Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT Ink heat x Physical Layer PDSS Ink heat 16 Generate y=f(x) Relationships Ream of Paper Load / Store Paper Pick Paper Increment and Hold Paper Position Ink Deliver and Store Paper Function Insulate air Contain Coffee Contain Coffee Import surface Stabilize Forces Insulate hand Hold Coffee Hold Coffee Insulate air Distribute Force Delivered Print Jetted Ink Process Data Input Data Ink Level Indication Display Status Status Indication Display Ink Level Jet Ink Ink Store Ink Vapors 110/220V AC Supply Power Remove Heat Heat Capture Vapor Filter Flow Hot Gases Cool air y WT Cooling Time 5 % Volume Lost 5 Delta Height 5 Base Width 5 Moment about Base 5 Boundary Temp. 4 Cup Volume 3 Cup Diameter 3 Coffee Temp 2 Hand Stress 2 Flow (M, E, or I) Heat (E) Coffee (M) Coffee (M) Surface (M) Forces (E) Heat (E) Coffee (M) Coffee (M) Heat (E) Hand (M), Force (E) Y Function y Insulate air Cooling Time flows WT Flow (M, E, or I) 5 Heat (E) x,n A out h out M M M M Y Element (Part) Sidewall, Mouth, Lid Side, Lid Sidewall Base Base Sidewall Sidewall Sidewall Sidewall, Mouth, Lid Sidewall, Mouth A in r out r in k cup h in T coff T air m coff C p,coff M x’s and n’s Now go model or experiment PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 17 Robust Design on Subsystems y Insulate air Cooling Time WT Flow (M, E, or I) 5 Heat (E) x,n A out h out M M M M A in r out r in k cup h in T coff T air m coff C p,coff M L1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Noise Factors FUNCTION NB 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 NC 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 ND 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 NE 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 NF 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 NG 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 NH 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 NI 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 NJ 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 NK 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 Y1 Y2 … Yn Ideal Output 8 Error States Control Factors y=f(x) 3 operating noise (sones) Input NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Wind noise potential (dBA) Function 7 6 2 1 0 5 new new limit limit after KLT after KLT 1,8 Nm random nom. Pnl Posit. worst case 2,8 Nm … only then do reliability tests at the system level PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 18 Cognition Corp’s Six Sigma Cockpit: Linking Critical Relationships Project Level Flow Down Requirements & CP Tree Project Managed via Sub-Team Groups Provides scorecards at all levels - System - Subassembly - Component - Function Cognition Corporation PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 19 Reinforce Data Based Gate Progression Concept Gate 2 Design Gate 1 Gate 3 Optimize Product Concept Design Developed Bus. Strategy, Family Plans. VOC, Platform & Tech. Concepts FMEA, Mod. Design, DOE Modeling, MSA, … Capability Gate 4 Launch Design Optimized Design Capable Robust Design, RSM Sens. & Cap. Analysis, Stress Testing, M-V Critical Critical Parameter Parameter Management Management Scorecards help determine Phase advancement (Rank & Risk Assessment) Gate 1 Item Rank Risk Rank Gate 2 Item Score Risk Gate 3 Item Score Rank Risk Gate 4 Item Score Rank Approved Risk Score Strategy 95 FMEA 95 Noise Char. 95 System Stress Testing 95 Bus. Case 88 DOE & Models 88 Robust Design 88 Reliability Assessment 88 Concept Engineering 91 System Arch 91 Integration Plan 91 Capability Analysis 91 Flexibility 91 Process CPM 91 DFQ Score 91.2 CPM 91 DFQ Score 91.2 6564 PDSS 6564 Analytical & Exp. Sensitivity 91 DFQ Score 91.2 Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 6564 DFQ Score 6564 91.2 20 Areas to become Proficient A B C D Overview & Exercise FMEA & Top-down functional RCA Lean Development Process & Project Mgt. VOC Gathering & KJ Methods DFMA Design for Lean Production Regression Basic DOE Reliability Modeling System Variation Stress Tests PDSS QFD & Reqts Document Methods System Architecting Planning Systems Integration: Design Flexibility and Risk Pugh Process: Concept Evaluation & Selection Model Maturity Assessment Monte Carlo Simulation ANOVA Critical Parameter Mgt. Hypothesis Testing & Confidence Intervals Measurement Advanced DOE Robust Design & Dynamic Methods Tolerance Optimization RSM & Multiple Y Optimization Technology & Process Capability Production & Supply Chain CPM Statistical Process Control DMAIC & Lean Production Methods Overview ALT tests HALT Tests & Warrantee Guarantee System Analysis Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 21 This Generates Results ROI’s conservatively > 10X are typical v Shorter time to market v Improved Gate Decision Making v Quality improvements v Clarity of process v PDSS Center for Innovation in Product Development MIT 22