Bribe Incidence in Transition Economies: Does Foreign Ownership matter?* Simin Seury†‡ This version, February 2009 Abstract: This paper attempts to trace out empirically the causal relationship between bribing, foreign ownership structure and firm’s ability in corrupt practices for the small and medium sized enterprises in the transition economies. Using a wide range of explanatory variables along with host-specific control variables, this paper finds the following results for the firms in 28 transition economies. A foreign-domestic partnership reduces the probability of being forced to pay bribe. However, given that bribing can not be avoided, the foreign firm’s share fails to create any significant impact on magnitude of bribe payment. Also, higher the amount of time spent in managing the authorities, higher is the realized amount of bribe payment for the firm as a percentage share of earning. The causality is reversed when the firm is confident that administration related to tax management is not a problem and in that case spending more time in dealings with the officials in fact reduces the percentage of bribe payment. Preliminary and incomplete PhD candidate, Department of Economics, York University, CANADA; email: seury@econ.yorku.ca ‡ I am thankful to my supervisors: Prof. Sam Bucovetsky, Prof. Mario Jametti, and Prof. Adam Wilczynski. * † i I. The Issues Surveys related to cost of doing business often record responses that reveals firms are facing corruption as a way of achieving certain advantages in business, either by default or by choice. While much of the literature captures corruption as THE evil and at times lists it among the most important obstacles for business [Schleifer (2002), Kaufmann (2005)], this research starts from the premise that be it good or bad, corruption has an undeniable role in firm’s strategic choice. It is therefore worth noting what determines which firm might have to accept this role of corruption by default and what determines who might gain from it. Does a domestic firm in a FIE receive any differential treatment from the corrupt officials compared to another domestic firm which is not associated with a FIE? Firms often report in business surveys that they “had to pay unofficial gifts” to “secure their contracts”, to get clearance with “health and safety inspection” and so on [World Bank and IRBD (2005)]. Thus bribing appears to be an inevitable part of cost for a group of firm. Surveys also reveal responses that a firm has been engaged in political lobbying or influencing the government with unofficial payments and these practices resulted in value addition to the particular firm in terms of higher sales revenue or lower operating cost. Thus for a group of firm, bribing may appear to be beneficial. With a micro-founded approach to these bribing phenomena [Crocker, K; Slemrod, J (2004), Svenson (2003)], that is modeling firm’s bribe payment as an explained variable of firm’s beneficial motive, bargaining power and cost of managing bribe payment, this paper offers few empirical evidences from the transition economies. The research objective is to address the following set of questions. What determines that a firm would be forced to pay bribes and whether foreign ownership and firm’s ability to influence governmental rules and regulation affects this probability? Among the firms that are reporting participation in bribe payment, whether it is true that the firms with higher ability to influence the government end up in paying lower percentage share of profit as bribe payment. Are their differences 1 in bribing phenomena among the firms who are forced to bribe as opposed to the firms who are not forced to bribe, but are engaged in unofficial dealings? II. Concepts and Place in the literature Bribing phenomena may take place in the form of petty bribing to get access to certain service or transaction as well as it may take place in the form of state capture, which is, to bribe the authorities to influence formulation and implementation of policies. If bribing the officials appears as an obvious way to get things done, and cost of bribing thus becomes an essential concern, “to tax or to pay bribe” often becomes synonymous to choosing among substitute techniques to the investors as highlighted by Kaufman (2000). The observation of possible trade-off among tax and bribe lead the researchers to a number of empirical analyses, mainly to capture the effect of bribing on the amount of management’s time wasted in handling red-tape issues (Wei 99, Kaufman), to identify the factors affecting frequency and magnitude of bribe payment due to tax-purpose (Anderson 2008), whether to tax or to bribe is a better way in doing business (Kaufman 2000) and so on. Some important facts noted in the recent literature regarding the bribing practice are that the incidence of corruption can be explained by the variation in policies or regulations across industries and individual firm’s attribute. These attributes, which are firm’s “ability to pay” bribe and firm’s “refusal power” against participating in bribing activities are shown to explain a large part of the variation in bribes across graft-reporting firms [Svenson, 2003]. In analyzing the relation between time cost of corruption and magnitude of bribe payment, Wei and Kaufman notes that corrupt officials ask a firm to "grease the wheel" (getting access to facilities by paying bribes) according to the firm’s ability to pay, and at times regardless of the other important features such as profitability. Thus firms that pay higher bribes not necessarily end up with lower time cost (red-tape cost) as a whole; they simply pay more because they are forced to do so and they can 2 survive the burden [Wei 99, Kaufmann 2000]4. However, there appears to be no significant difference among foreign firms regarding this practice. The present research considers a wider set of factors in explaining the bribing phenomena. In addition to the standard measures of “ability to bribe” and “refusal power” I wish to include firm-specific “cost of bribing” with “ability to influence” public authority’s decisions, as well as country-specific subjective measures of corruption and other obstacles in doing business, as perceived by individual firms. It is presumed that only the local firms posses the ability to influence5. Moreover the local firm in a FIE is likely to face differential treatment with bribe and extortion. While it might be true that the corrupt officials allow certain benefits to the local firms in exchange of unofficial payment, it might also be true that these officials do not demand bribe from the wholly owned subsidiaries (a hundred percent foreign owned firm). The officers allow those subsidiaries to have the benefits without any bribe, knowing that asking for such payments would not be fruitful at all. In other words, power and ability to refuse to pay bribe are important factors in explaining bribing phenomena. It might be possible that a firm with local-foreign partnership emerges as a stronger entity against a corrupt official’s illegal practices simply because the official opts for squeezing the local firms. On the other hand, starting from the premise that local firm’s ability (to bribe corrupt officials in host country and to create influence) is beneficial to the foreign investor, it might be true that firms with local-foreign partnership get to earn higher post-bribe profit (with a lower percentage of bribe payment from profit-share) with more efficient corrupt practices. If this research reveals graft payment is deep-rooted only because firms are forced to take part in it, the respective policy implication to curb the supply of corruption 4 These findings are also coherent with Svenson’s portrayal of corrupt government officials as price discriminators 5 In a previous reasearch, my finding was that, in a foreign investment relationship, given other things equal, when a local firm have certain ability in bribing the domestic authorities and can manage to have influence from bribing, the local firm obtains a greater share of ownership compared to the situation when the local does not have such ability or influence. Thus the objective of this paper is finding if there is any reverse causality, namely, does having foreign shares make a firm a) a better briber in terms of lower percentage payment and/or b) a better defender against bribing practices. 3 would be “how to increase firm’s refusal power against unofficial dealings”6. On the other hand, if there is evidence that firms who are more influential are appearing to be better gainer in terms of lower percentage of bribe payment, then the policy implication would be “how to curb the incentives that are nurturing supply of these unofficial payments?” III. Framework and Propositions Based on the issues explained above, I wish to trace out whether bribing practice is affected by ownership status and ability to be corrupt (or not to be corrupt) along with other explanatory variables. This is carried on by focusing on the following propositions: a) The probability that a firm would be asked for bribe to initiate or to continue a particular business activity is different among the foreign and the local investors. b) Given that bribing can not be avoided, a firm with joint local and foreign ownership performs as a better briber (lower share of bribe payment) than a firm with hundred-percent foreign ownership. c) Given other things equal, a local firm would have better ability to deal with corruption (stronger influence in state capture and/or lower share of bribe payment) than another local firm which is not engaged in any foreign investment relationship. That is, a local firm appears to be a better briber due to its share in FIEs. To incorporate the idea of bribing as a cost of doing business, it is assume that participating in bribing causes the firm to pay a percentage of profit B. All other relevant costs are summarized as a percentage payment t, which can also be thought 6 A recent guide from World Bank (2008) [provided by a joint effort of The World Bank Institute (WBI), UN Global Compact, The Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), Transparency International (TI), Global Advice Network, Grant Thornton International Ltd and Siemens AG] suggests such strategies useful for firms to form coalition against corruption. 4 as the tax payment. Thus the realized sales revenue of each firm is analyzed in following parts: i) from the total sales revenue, a certain percentage B is paid by the firm as bribe to corrupt officials ii) (1- v) is the percentage of the sales revenue reported for tax purpose and tax t is paid on this portion of sales revenue iii) for rest of the sales revenue, v percent, the firm saves tax-payment. This approach of explaining gains from tax-evasion by paying bribe can be found in the literature as the analysis of costly state falsification framework [Crocker, K; Slemrod, J (2004)]. The current framework, however, does not incorporate any agency cost, compared to Crocker’s research. Let k denote the effort determined from firm-specific character which determines ability to bribe and cost of bribing. It is assumed that every firm has two probable ways to follow. If the firm does not take part in tax-evasion activities, there probability is sg(k) that the firm can pay only t that summarizes all probable resource costs (including cost of unavoidable petty bribing and time costs), and thereby earns profit (1- t)sg(k)Π. The firm may also engage in bribing and tax-evasion with probability of success sm(k), and earns post-tax and post-bribe profit (1- t + Bvt-B)sm(k)Π where Bvt is the part of profit saved due to bribing activities. It is assumed that failure to earn any positive payoff occurs with probability (1 – sj(k)), j = g, m. As an example how failure may occur, one can think about a firm facing an expropriatory tax rate (1 – sg(k)) times, i.e. probability of not being able to avoid such tax rate (parameterized by k). Or one can think about being caught red handed due to bribing (1 – sm(k)) times, again parameterized as a function of k. Thus the firm can be thought of facing the following optimization problem: Max (1 − t )s g (k ) + (1 − t + Bvt − B )s m (k ) k ( ) = (1 − t ) s g + s m + B (v.t − 1)s m (1.1) Solving this yields optimal B as a function of optimal k as: 5 B* = (1 − t ) (s kg* + s km* ) (1 − vt ) s km* s km* γ = g s k * + s km* where, ( = (1 − t ) γ (1 − vt ) ) (1.2) Thus the magnitude of B essentially depends on sign and magnitude of γ, where γ is the change in marginal success in bribing and tax-evasion sm(k)) as a share of summation of marginal successes through both activities (sg(k))+ sm(k))7. The formulation of probabilities for empirical estimation is followed from the control rights hypothesis [Shleifer and Vishny (1994), Svenson (2003)] that the threat point in the negotiation between a public official and a firm is determined by the control rights of the firm. Thus the following framework is presented for empirical estimation: ξij = x ′Wi j (k ) + ei j where, j = g ,m and i = 1, 2 , ... , N firms (1.4) Where ξij is the probability of being engaged in activity sj(k), W(k) is a vector reflecting firm characteristics, x is a coefficient vector, and ei is an unobserved error term. 7 Equivalently with log transformation: ln B * = ln(1 − t ) − ln (1 − vt ) − ln γ (1.2.1) However, this format is not used in the empirical part. 6 The firms that are probable candidate for being engaged in tax-evasion either have a low cost of bribing or high cost of non-participation in bribing activities or both. These costs are determined by firm’s ability to deal with bribe and firm’s refusal power of not participating in bribing. Unlike Svenson (2003) firm’s ability is defined as “ability to deal with bribe” and not as “ability to pay bribe”. “cost of non-participation” in bribing mostly in the same fashion as “refusal power” as depicted by Svenson. That is, low refusal power is synonymous to high cost of non-participation. First, it is plausible to assume that the W(k) vector includes firm’s current and past profitability, based on age, size, and other firm-specific factors, capital mobility and resources spent for unofficial activities. Second it is affected by domestic business environment factors such as corruption index of the country and property right index, which may as well have varying degrees of impact among different sectors. For instance sectors that have low level of capital mobility due to the inherent nature of business activity and asset specificity, may suffer from high cost of non-participation as refusing to pay bribe incurs higher opportunity cost. In a likewise fashion ability to deal with bribe is determined by firm-level ability to influence the policy regulation and implementation as well as country-level index of property rights. Given all other country-level settings on the firms in given country are the same for each firm, the unobserved probability of success can be represented as the following binary dependent variable (Probit) specification: ~ ξ t ,i = β 0 + β 1π t ,i + β 2 . where Π t − Π t −1 + Πt L J ∑ β l ,i A + ∑β l =4 j = L +1 j ,i z + ei ; ei ~ N (0,1). (1.5) Here z summarizes all other firm-characteristics; βs are a set of coefficients to be estimated; the first term with 0 denotes percentage of current profit-margin, and the second term denotes past profitability performance. A proxy of percentage change in 7 earnings is used to reflect the performance of past profitability. A(k) summarizes index for degree of direct influences through lobbying or bribing activities that resulted in considerable changes in increasing the value of business. z represents firm’s size, age, management’s time spent with officials, and foreign ownership status. IV. Data Description and Variable Specification The firm-level data set for this paper is obtained from The Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) - performed by the IBRD and World Bank for the year 2005 for 9665 firms in 28 transition economies. The survey was conducted on the basis of face-to-face interviews. Information from these datasets that are relevant for the present research are: information about individual firm’s perception towards different aspects of petty corruption and bureaucratic corruption, degree to which they are exposed to bribing, degree to which tax administration is a problem, percentage of earning officially reported for tax payment considering the difficulties in reporting and managing tax-related issues, other business or firm specific details such as past increase or decrease in earnings, ownership patterns, capital replacement value as a share of earnings, size of the enterprises, geographic location, and sector specific details. The sector specific information allows to group firms into sub-sectors (for example identifying whether majority of the firms sales come from mining sector or construction sector or retail business etc), as sector specific asset specificity is an important factor in explaining firm’s cost of bribing according to the aforesaid hypothesis. Dependent Variable The questionnaire includes the option for the firms to report what is the usual percentage of earning that is spent for unofficial activities in a typical firm with 8 similar setting as the respondent.8 The response from this question is used as a proxy for percentage of bribe payment, B. Almost 5.7 percent firms (549 out of 9665) do not report this information [Table I]. When a corrupt official is dealing with a firm who is forced to bribe, the official would wish to extort a bribe as high as possible. To screen out the firms who are likely to face such a situation, responses from the following question is used: “How often is the following statement true?: “If a government agent acts against the rules I can usually go to another official or to his superior and get the correct treatment without recourse to unofficial payments/gifts.” From the category of responses [Never = 1; Seldom = 2; Sometimes = 3; Frequently = 4; Usually = 5; Always = 6; Don’t know = 7], the following indicator variable is generated: Indicator D1, i = 1 if never/ seldom can get rid of bribe-extortion (cannot defy illegal-treatment of an official without paying bribe) = 0 otherwise There is also the following question that addresses the issue of approximating the tax evasion: “Recognizing the difficulties that many firms face in fully complying with taxes and regulations”, what is the percentage of total annual sales that a typical firm would reports for tax purposes? 8 The indirect approach of the questionnaire to address what usually happens in a “firm like yours” rather than directly asking “what you do in your firm” is to ensure that the respondent is not shying away from the truth due to the direct confrontation. 9 Indicator D2, i = 1 if the firm reports a percentage below average (88 percent) = 0 otherwise Finally the following interaction dummies are created to approximate whether the firm is participating in tax-evasion while being forced to bribe: Indicator D3, i = 1 if the firm reported tax evasion and was forced to bribe = 0 otherwise Indicator D4, i = 1 if the firm reported tax evasion and could “always” or “almost always” avoid bribe extortion = 0 otherwise Explanatory Variables Age, and Size represents to some extent a firm’s initial position in determining the cost of bribing. While age is likely to reduce cost due to better experience and maturity, affect of size is less obvious because a large firm may be more targeted by the corrupt officials and a growing firm may have lower bargaining power. On the other hand, large size and steady growth may strengthen a firm’s position in bargaining. We include the log of firm-age to capture the affect of age. Firm size in the data is categorized from the number of permanent, full-time employees the firm have. Firms with less than 50 employees belongs to the category of small firm, firms with 50 to less than 250 employees belongs to medium-sized category and firms with employees more than that belongs to the large-size category. A dummy variable is included to indicate small and large size with medium size being the baseline category. 10 Profitability at the level form may affect the scenario in the following way. The likelihood that a firm would not be able to get away with injustice without paying bribes is likely to increase with profitability. Because when any illegal action is taken by a certain official against a firm, if the firm does not participate in bribing to manage the illegal action, the higher the profitability of the firm, the greater would be the opportunity cost of not paying bribe given that there is no other way than bribing. However as I have used the percentage of profit margin to cost of the respective firm (percentage by which sales price of a firms exceeds the operating costs, i.e., the cost of material inputs plus wage costs but not overheads and depreciations) to have a measure of profitability that is not biased with the firm-size9, the reasoning is now partly reversed (contrary to Svenson (2003)). A firm that is already having a high profit margin relative to costs, may as well be strong candidate that can forgo bribe payment and thereby incur the cost of not having the benefit that was ready to be sanctioned by the corrupt official upon paying unofficial gifts. A good number of firms (around 240) did not report this information of profit margin but they reported of having no profit during the previous year. Hence we replace the missing values of these particular firms with zero value for the profit margin (albeit the shortcoming is that profit margin of these firms might as well be negative). Influence is represented as two indices about firm’s ability to influence policy implementation and regulation, created in the following fashion from the categorical responses from the answer to the BEEPS survey responses: - “degree to which the act of lobbying or having information about related policy affected the firm’s business” is used to create type-II influence - “degree to which the act of influencing public policy or decree affected the firm’s business” is used to create type-II influence 9 Instead of considering profit margin, if we included gross profit level or total sales without adjusting for the number of employees, profitability would be highly correlated with the firm size 11 Ability Type-I To reflect the ability about the first quality (which is considered as a legal activity), a category variable is created ranging from 1 to 13 that reflects whether the firm can have access to ministry or executives or legal authorities and to what degree the firm has been benefited due to these activities. Here benefit refers to critical value addition to the business and degrees of effectiveness from information gathering and lobbying are categorized in the survey in chronological order from lowest benefit to highest benefit as: minor impact, moderate impact, major impact and decisive impact. The ability index is rescaled based on firm’s score among the maximum possible points and represented in percentage format. Ability Type-II To reflect the ability about the degree of influencing through bribing (which is rather associated with unofficial payments and activities), a category variable is created in the same fashion as described above. This category variable has a scale range from 1 to 11. The ability index is rescaled based on firm’s score among the maximum possible points and represented in percentage format. Time cost of corruption is approximated in two parts: time cost I represents percentage of management’s time spent in dealing with the officials (equivalent to the idea of time spent for red-tape issues) without dealing with tax-related administrations. Time cost II represents percentage of management’s time spent including the time for managing tax-administration. Corruption is represented by two alternative measures, both of which are country specific. The first one is a subjective index, based on the responses from individual firm. These are the percentage of firms in each country that are “always” or “almost always” engaged in bribing activities for accessing essential goods and services from the government for the business such as i) getting connected to electricity, telephone and other public services ii) accessing government contracts iii) getting certified from 12 Occupational Health & Safety Inspection, Fire and Building Inspection and Environmental Inspection iv) dealing with tax payment and so on. These are termed as administrative corruption (or petty corruption, as mentioned at the beginning of section 4.2) and an index is calculated from firms in each country that reports about paying unofficial payments for the most activities. A higher number indicates more firms are forced to be engaged in corruption and therefore a higher number is an indicator of higher level of corruption. The other index is an objective index and is used from the survey of Heritage Foundation. This index shows the “Freedom from Corruption”, starting from positive number up to hundred. A higher number indicates more firms are free from corruption and therefore a lower number is an indicator of higher level of corruption. Property Rights is represented using two alternate measures. The first one is an indicator variable taking the value one if the firm is confident that his property right would be protected. This is created from the survey responses. The second one is an objective Property Index used from the survey of Heritage Foundation. Table I: Expected Sign of the Coefficients Coefficient for the variable: Sign Age (log) -ve +ve -ve -ve ? ? ? -ve +ve ? -ve +ve ? size small size large profit margin Ability I Ability II Time cost I GNIP (growth rate) Corruption Index Foreign share Change in Sale Tax evasion ratio Time cost II +ve with Higher asset specificity/ Sector Dummies lower capital mobility 13 To conclude the variable specification, the expected signs for the coefficients are summarize in Table I above. V. Issues in Selection Bias and non-response While estimating the bribe equation (1.2), if we include only the positive values of bribe payment in our analysis, we are ignoring the fact that the existence of the firms in the sample that are not required to pay bribe is not a random phenomenon. The number of firms that are facing the corrupt officials and are being asked to pay bribe is likely to be determined by a good number of factors such as how well the investors’ property rights are secured, how corrupt is the business environment as a whole, how much is the firm’s bribing ability, how weak or strong is the bargaining position of the firm and so on. The issue of selection bias thus becoming non-trivial, we need to include measures to take care of the bias and we proceed with Heckman-Selection Model in this regard. We refer to the equation with the binary dependent variable D1, i , D2, i, D3, i , and D4, i as the selection equation and the equations in which the percentage of bribe payment appears as the dependent variables as the bribe-incidence equation. To satisfy the exclusion restriction, percentage change in earning over last three years is included in the selection equation which does not appear in the bribe-incidence equation. Another important issue that must be mentioned is that while for some of the firms with zero or missing bribe payment it is true that they do not need to pay bribe, some others may choose to hide the information with certain reasons. To deal with this problem, the distribution of the other firm-specific attributes such as profitability, stability in increase or decrease in earning, magnitude of tax evasion and so on are reported for the reporter group and the non-reporter group in Table IX. This comparison may help to reveal where there is any difference between firms for which the report about bribing practice is available as opposed to the firms for which this report is not available. 14 Although the non-reporters have a slightly higher average for the profit margin (higher by 1.75 percent) than that of the reporters, in terms of increase or decreasing in earning, their average is lower by almost 3 percent. However, the maximum percentage difference with costs in way high for the reporters, larger by 300 percent which triggers the suspicion that these non-reporters are a group of firms that were not doing as well financially as the others. The ability index is by and large similar among these two groups. But average percentage of reported earning for tax-payment is again much lower for the non-reporters, 62.35 percent as opposed 90 percent, which is the average of for the rest of the firms. It the estimation for the rest of the firms show that a tax-bribe trade-off is present, the high tax-evasion rate for the nonreporters would hint that the missing bribe-payment was likely to be a significant amount, hidden purposely, rather than being a trivial amount that was not worth mentioning. The issue of non-response is apparent for the influence variables as well. The distribution of the ability parameters is summarized for the entire sample in graph I and graph II. For each country, graph-I presents the distribution of ability categories where the number of categories appears in the horizontal axis and frequency for each category appears in the vertical axis. Further the kernel density for ability type-I and type-II for the FIEs is presented in graph-II. From graphical representation, it is evident that firms in certain countries, such as Slovenia and Estonia were rather reluctant about reporting type-I and type-II ability respectively. Survey interpretation attached to the BEEPS 2005 survey questionnaire (not reported) explains that questions regarding corruption, bribery, “unofficial payments”, gains from unofficial activity and employment levels did not receive enthusiastic response from certain participants as they were afraid that the information they provide could fall into the hands of criminal elements or the “intelligence service”. It was also noted that a good number of managers report verbally the discomfort due to the discretionary power of tax authorities to impose taxes under patronage of the government and the resulting corruption due to party-politics, but they do not report how their business has been affected by this. 15 Finally few points are noted from comparing the data regarding tax and bribe payment for the firms. Calculating percentage difference between the bribe payment, B and share of revenue not reported to avoid tax payment, v reveals that in a scale range from -100 to +100, the minimum difference for a local is -40 while for a foreign firm this is -20. The mean value is higher for the locals (9.2) than the foreign firms (6.2). For almost 20 percent foreign firms and for almost 18 percent local firms this entry is positive. That is, these firms pay a higher percentage share of revenue as bribe payment than the percentage share they save by not reporting for tax payment. Almost 7 percent firms do not report this information at all. The percentage of nonresponse in the same between the foreign and the local firms (614 local firm among total of 8503 firms and 81 foreign firms among total of 1152 firms). For almost 4 percent firms v=B and again this percentage is the same among the foreign and the local firms. Graph-III summarizes the distribution of firms evading and being forced to bribe using Venn diagram. For each country B represents set of firms that are forced to bribe and H represents set of firms that are not engaged in tax-evasion, with complement set defined accordingly for each group. In each diagram the oval area shows the set of firms that are engaged in tax-evasion while the area of rectangle (excluding the oval area) shows set of firms that are not evading. The left trapezoid shows set of firms that are forced to bribe, while the right one shows if the situation is otherwise. It is apparent from the relative ratio of numbers that countries show notable range of variation in evading and bribing practice. Estonia has only 5 percent of firms engaged in tax-evasion even though almost 25 percent firms are forced to pay bribe, while for Albania the evading firms are more than 50 percent of the sample (almost 42 percent of firms are forced to bribe in Albania). Belarus, Slovak Republic and Slovenia also shows low percentage of evading firms, from 9 to 15 percent, compared to high percentage of firms that are being forced to pay bribe (almost 25 to 40 percent). Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Turkey shows from 30 to 50 percent of firms engaged in tax-evasion although the percentage of forced-bribe payers are almost in the same range with some other low-evading countries such as Belarus. 16 VI. Estimation Results Estimation results from initial OLS specification is summarized in Table II. on average age may reduce from 10 percent to 11 percent of the bribe payment and while large firms are likely to avoid 20 to 22 percent of bribe payment, small firms are more likely to pay a lot more, starting from 20 percent (Eqn B5reg2) to as much as 30 percent (Eqn B5reg8). Ability type-II is strongly significant with an average 2 percent increase in the bribe payment for every percentage increase in the firm’s index. Ability type- I however does not show any effect. Time cost I, which is devoid of tax management issues appear to reduce the bribe payment. While in general, firms who face problematic tax-management issues, higher the time cost II, higher is the percentage share of bribe. The probability of bribe incidence is reported in Table III, IV, V with various groups of firms in terms of which firm is engaged in tax-evasion, who needs to pay bribe as a compulsory procedure and who gets to take part in both activities. As Table V shows, there is weak evidence that foreign firms are unlikely to take part in tax-evasion activities. Given the fact that Table III shows strong enough evidence that being a foreign firm reduces the probability of being asked for bribe for 4 to 6 percentage points, one might suspect that the weak effect of non-participation in tax-evasion may result from the fact that they were not forced to bribe in the first place and hence they did not have the incentive for tax-bribe trade-off. However, table IV (Eqn B5prob7 and B5prob8) shows that the probability of being engaged in tax-evasion from a foreign firm is indeed negative even when these firms are being forced to bribe. Table VI, VII and VIII reports results with correction for the sample selection bias and portrays the picture of bribe payment among several groups of firms. Among the firms who are forced to bribe, a percentage increase in ability type II increases the percentage of bribe payment more than 2.5 percent. Time spent in handling red tape issues without having the problem in tax management may reduce up to 41 17 percentage of bribe payment. This rather surprisingly large effect is also strongly significant. Table VII shows firms that are engaged in tax-evasion, are paying almost 3 percent higher bribe payment with an increase in time cost II, than the ones who are not engaged in tax-evasion. In both cases time cost II increases bribe payment with strong significance. The former also pays almost 20 percentage point higher bribe with every percentage increase in ability type-II. Age effects and size effects that were evident from baseline OLS estimations are largely wiped away after controlling for other characteristics among the particular group of firms. The subjective corruption index however continues to have a strong positive effect, explaining around 6 percent of the increase in bribe payment on average. The objective corruption index and property rights indices returns high degree of correlation with country income and country dummies (not reported) and therefore were excluded from estimation report. Finally current profit margin, foreign ownership status and ability type-I fails to leave any effect on percentage of bribe payment at all. VII. Conclusion and Suggestive Implications Using a wide range of explanatory variable along with host-specific control variables, this paper finds the following: assuming all other country-specific characteristics have been taken care of , for a firm, (i) having a foreign-domestic partnership reduces the probability of being asked to bribe. However, (ii) given that bribing can not be avoided, the local partner’s share fail to create any significant impact on magnitude of bribe payment among the FIEs. Also, (iii) higher the amount of time spent in managing the authorities, higher is the realized amount of bribe payment as a percentage of earning. Interestingly, (iv) the causality is reversed when the firm is confident that administration related to tax management is not a problem and in that case spending more time in dealings with the officials in fact reduces the percentage 18 of bribe payment. There is strong evidence that in the last case, a firm might reduce almost 40 percent of the bribe payment by increasing percentage share of management’s time to deal with the government authorities. Finally, although there is weak evidence that firm’s age may reduce the magnitude of bribe-payment, firm-size and profit margin hardly leave any effect on that payment. There is weak evidence that foreign firms show a lower probability of being engaged in tax-evasion activities compared to a domestic firm, even when they are forced to bribe. These findings shed light on the probable factors that could explain a firm’s refusal power against corruption. Findings from this paper can be utilized in formatting safety-net for business against corruption. Also the strong influence of management’s time related to tax issues and evidence on tax-evasion issues suggest that fiscal reform and reducing red-tape delays in tax-management may largely contribute towards the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures [to be completed]. 19 Table II: Bribe Payment Equation (OLS estimation) Eqn B5reg1 Eqn B5reg2 Eqn B5reg7 Eqn B5reg8 Age (log) -0.107 (0.000) a -0.107 (0.000) b -0.111 (0.000) a -0.114 (0.000) a size small 0.245 (0.001) a 0.297 (0.001) a 0.248 (0.001) a 0.308 (0.001) a size large -0.221 (0.001) b -0.202 (0.001) b -0.211 (0.001) b -0.204 (0.001) c 0.002 (0.000) 0.001 (0.000) 0.002 (0.000) 0.002 (0.000) -0.001 (0.000) -0.002 (0.000) -0.001 (0.000) -0.002 (0.000) 0.021 (0.000) 0.021 (0.000) a b profit margin Ability I 0.022 (0.000) a Time cost I -0.418 (0.001) a GNIP (growth rate) c Ability II a 0.021 (0.000) a -0.426 (0.001) a c -0.024 (0.000) -0.029 (0.000) -0.025 (0.000) -0.029 (0.000) Corruption Index 0.015 (0.000) 0.020 (0.000) 0.016 (0.000) 0.022 (0.000) Foreign share 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) Change in Sale 0.001 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) 0.001 (0.000) 0.000 (0.000) 0.009 (0.000) 0.009 (0.000) a 0.023 (0.000) 0.020 (0.000) a 0.495 (0.004) 0.464 (0.004) -0.103 (0.001) -0.097 (0.001) 0.429 (0.001) 0.431 (0.001) -0.034 -0.041 (0.001) -0.187 -0.193 (0.001) -0.171 -0.157 (0.001) b Tax evasion ratio Time cost II 0.524 (0.004) -0.132 (0.001) 0.414 (0.001) Transport -0.045 (0.001) Retail -0.204 (0.001) Other -0.155 (0.001) Mining Manufacturing Construction a c a a 0.516 (0.004) -0.144 (0.001) 0.393 (0.001) (0.001) -0.063 (0.001) (0.001) -0.223 (0.001) (0.001) -0.146 (0.001) a a c a c Note: Significance labeling: a for 1%, b for 5%, c for 10% level of significance. Standard errors are in parenthesis 20 Table III: Probability of Bribe Payment (Probit Estimation) Independent Variable D1,i = 1 if Firms is Subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise D1,i = 1 if Firms is Subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise Eqn B5prob1 Age (log) -0.0024 D1,i = 1 if Firms is Subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise Eqn B5prob2 (0.008) -0.0064 Eqn B5prob3 (0.008) 0.0070 (0.007) size small 0.0134 (0.014) 0.0096 (0.015) -0.0111 (0.013) size large -0.0151 (0.021) -0.0226 (0.022) 0.0019 (0.019) profit margin -0.0002 (0.000) -0.0004 (0.000) -0.0011 (0.000) Ability I -0.0006 (0.000) c -0.0008 (0.000) b -0.0002 (0.000) Ability II 0.0011 (0.000) a 0.0012 (0.000) a -0.0009 (0.000) Time cost I -0.0344 (0.012) b -0.0419 (0.013) b 0.0060 (0.011) GNIP (growth rate) -0.0054 (0.003) c -0.0058 (0.003) c -0.0104 (0.002) Corruption Index -0.0070 (0.003) c -0.0072 (0.003) c -0.0031 (0.003) Foreign share -0.0007 (0.000) b -0.0006 (0.000) b -0.0002 (0.000) Change in Sale -0.0004 (0.000) b -0.0004 (0.000) b -0.0004 (0.000) 0.0023 (0.001) a Time cost II Mining -0.0016 (0.055) -0.0041 (0.057) 0.0311 (0.052) Manufacturing -0.0084 (0.017) -0.0075 (0.017) 0.0040 (0.015) Construction -0.0017 (0.021) -0.0025 (0.022) 0.0066 (0.020) Transport -0.0061 (0.025) -0.0106 (0.026) 0.0142 (0.023) Retail 0.0105 (0.017) 0.0105 (0.018) 0.0143 (0.016) Other -0.0663 (0.026) -0.0755 (0.026) -0.0341 (0.024) c b b b a b Note: Significance labeling: a for 1%, b for 5%, c for 10% level of significance. Standard errors are in parenthesis 21 Table IV: Probability of Bribe Payment (Probit Estimation) Independent Variables D3,i = 1 if Firms is engaged in taxevasion and firm is subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise D3,i = 1 if Firms is engaged in taxevasion and firm is subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise D4,i = 1 if Firms is NOT engaged in tax-evasion, but firm is subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise D4,i = 1 if Firms is NOT engaged in taxevasion, but firm is subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise Eqn B5prob5 Eqn B5prob6 Eqn B5prob7 Eqn B5prob8 Age (log) -0.0096 (0.005) c -0.0106 (0.00) c -0.0027 (0.01) -0.0059 (0.01) size small 0.0229 (0.008) b 0.0248 (0.01) b 0.0139 (0.01) 0.0109 (0.02) size large -0.0214 (0.012) -0.0241 (0.01) -0.0193 (0.02) -0.0264 (0.02) 0.0009 (0.000) a 0.0008 (0.00) a -0.0001 (0.00) -0.0003 (0.00) -0.0004 (0.000) c -0.0005 (0.00) b -0.0007 (0.00) b -0.0009 (0.00) a 0.0016 (0.00) a 0.0013 (0.00) a profit margin Ability I Ability II Time cost I 0.0015 (0.000) a -0.0371 (0.008) a a 0.0066 (0.002) Corruption Index -0.0023 (0.002) Foreign share -0.0004 (0.000) Change in Sale -0.0001 (0.000) GNIP (growth rate) b Time cost II 0.0070 (0.00) -0.0023 (0.00) -0.0004 (0.00) 0.0000 (0.00) 0.0008 (0.00) a b 0.0011 (0.00) a -0.0347 (0.01) b -0.0055 (0.00) c -0.0055 (0.00) c -0.0068 (0.00) c -0.0069 (0.00) c -0.0007 (0.00) b -0.0006 (0.00) b -0.0004 (0.00) b -0.0004 (0.00) c 0.0025 (0.00) b -0.0011 (0.00) -0.0012 (0.00) Mining -0.0251 (0.028) -0.0222 (0.03) -0.0110 (0.06) -0.0149 (0.06) Manufacturing -0.0102 (0.009) -0.0057 (0.01) -0.0127 (0.02) -0.0112 (0.02) Construction -0.0089 (0.011) -0.0032 (0.01) -0.0095 (0.02) -0.0069 (0.02) Transport -0.0206 (0.012) -0.0167 (0.01) -0.0119 (0.03) -0.0142 (0.03) Retail -0.0019 (0.010) 0.0029 (0.01) 0.0081 (0.02) 0.0097 (0.02) Other -0.0271 (0.012) -0.0239 (0.01) -0.0716 (0.03) -0.0795 (0.03) c Note: Significance labeling: a for 1%, b for 5%, c for 10% level of significance. Standard errors are in parenthesis 22 Table V: Probability of Engaging in Tax-Evasion (Probit Estimation) Independent Variable Dependent Variable: D5,i = 1 if Firms is taking part in tax-evasion activities; 0 otherwise Eqn B5prob9 Eqn B5prob10 Age (log) -0.0298 (0.007) a -0.0335 (0.007) a size small 0.0703 (0.012) a 0.0645 (0.012) a size large -0.0451 (0.019) c -0.0487 (0.019) c 0.0017 (0.000) a 0.0018 (0.000) a Ability I -0.0004 (0.000) -0.0004 (0.000) Ability II 0.0037 (0.000) profit margin a Time cost I GNIP (growth rate) 0.0177 (0.003) Corruption Index 0.0033 (0.003) Foreign share -0.0005 (0.000) Change in Sale 0.0002 (0.000) a c 0.0038 (0.000) a -0.0626 (0.011) a 0.0174 (0.003) a 0.0032 (0.003) -0.0005 (0.000) 0.0002 (0.000) 0.0016 (0.000) -0.0535 (0.049) -0.0524 (0.049) Manufacturing 0.0139 (0.016) 0.0035 (0.015) Construction 0.0283 (0.020) 0.0215 (0.020) -0.0492 (0.021) -0.0560 (0.020) Time cost II Mining Transport c a c Retail 0.0010 (0.016) -0.0147 (0.015) Other -0.0096 (0.024) -0.0165 (0.024) Note: Significance labeling: a for 1%, b for 5%, c for 10% level of significance. Standard errors are in parenthesis. 23 Table VI: Bribe Payment and Selection Equations (Heckman Selection Procedure) Independent Variables Bribe Equation Dependent Variable: Percentage of Bribe Share of Earnings Eqn: B5eck1 Eqn: B5eck2 Age (log) -0.1662 (0.070) -0.1681 (0.071) c size small 0.2167 (0.124) 0.2552 (0.126) c size large -0.2019 (0.190) -0.1911 (0.195) profit margin Ability I c 0.0046 (0.003) 0.0032 (0.003) -0.0026 (0.002) -0.0027 (0.002) 0.0252 (0.003) -0.0196 (0.016) 0.0266 (0.003) a Time cost I -0.4117 (0.102) a GNIP (growth rate) -0.0191 (0.015) 0.0612 (0.007) -0.0008 -0.1499 Ability II Corruption Index Foreign share a 0.0591 (0.007) (0.002) -0.0010 (0.002) 0.0218 (0.004) (0.479) -0.3245 (0.489) Time cost II _cons (structutal) a a a Selection Equation Dependent Variable: D1,i = 1 if Firms is Subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise Age (log) -0.0105 (0.021) -0.0198 size small 0.0306 (0.039) 0.0226 (0.039) size large -0.0313 (0.057) -0.0601 (0.059) profit margin -0.0006 (0.001) -0.0010 (0.001) Ability I -0.0017 (0.001) -0.0021 (0.001) c (0.022) b 0.0031 (0.001) a 0.0031 (0.001) a Time cost I -0.0748 (0.033) c -0.1114 (0.035) a GNIP (growth rate) -0.0166 (0.007) c Corruption Index -0.0165 (0.009) Foreign share -0.0017 (0.001) Change in Sale -0.0011 (0.000) 0.0053 (0.147) -0.0054 Ability II Mining Manufacturing -0.0171 (0.007) b -0.0171 (0.009) c b -0.0016 (0.001) b b -0.0010 (0.000) b 0.0060 (0.001) a (0.046) 0.0122 (0.150) (0.047) 0.0199 (0.057) -0.0102 -0.0267 (0.067) 0.0033 (0.059) Retail 0.0362 (0.047) -0.0446 (0.069) Other Construciton Transport -0.1862 (0.075) _cons (selection) 0.2156 (0.184) lambda 0.4091 (0.289) rho 0.1598 sigma 2.5601 c 0.0292 (0.048) -0.2099 (0.077) 0.2898 (0.186) (0.315) Note: Significance labeling: a for 1%, b for 5%, c for 10% level of significance. Standard errors are in parenthesis. 24 Table VII: Bribe Payment and Selection Equations (Heckman Selection Procedure) Independent Variables Bribe Equation Dependent Variable: Percentage of Bribe Share of Earnings Eqn:B5eck3 Age (log) -0.1653 (0.066) size small 0.1823 size large Eqn: B5eck5 Eqn: B5eck6 -0.2099 (0.210) -0.2204 (0.121) 0.2056 (0.364) 0.3680 (0.371) -0.0751 (0.178) -0.9547 (0.629) -1.0507 (0.658) 0.0031 (0.003) 0.0079 (0.009) 0.0053 (0.009) Ability I -0.0003 (0.002) -0.0118 (0.006) -0.0101 (0.007) Ability II 0.0276 (0.003) 0.0313 (0.008) -0.4818 (0.273) profit margin c a Time cost I GNIP (growth rate) Corruption Index Foreign share Time cost II _cons (structutal) -0.0261 (0.014) -0.0114 (0.048) 0.0476 (0.007) 0.0902 (0.016) -0.0027 (0.002) 0.0143 (0.004) -3.0322 (1.863) a a a -0.2083 (0.441) Selection Equation D4,i = 1 if Firms is not engaged in tax-evasion, but firm is subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise (0.217) 0.0307 (0.009) -0.0131 (0.048) 0.0879 (0.016) 0.0071 (0.006) a a 0.0449 (0.012) a -4.0899 (2.017) c D3,i = 1 if Firms is engaged in tax-evasion and firm is subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise Age (log) 0.0100 (0.023) -0.0666 (0.031) c -0.0736 (0.032) c size small -0.0493 (0.041) 0.1431 (0.056) b 0.1582 (0.057) b size large -0.0115 (0.060) -0.1314 (0.091) -0.1670 (0.094) profit margin -0.0037 (0.001) Ability I -0.0011 (0.001) Ability II -0.0025 (0.001) 0.0000 (0.000) a b Time cost I GNIP (growth rate) 0.0051 (0.001) a 0.0050 (0.001) -0.0020 (0.001) c -0.0024 (0.001) c 0.0099 (0.001) a 0.0101 (0.001) a -0.1978 (0.044) a 0.0430 (0.012) a 0.0408 (0.012) a -0.0104 (0.013) -0.0030 (0.001) c -0.0001 (0.001) 0.0067 (0.011) -0.0108 (0.013) Foreign share -0.0005 (0.001) -0.0028 (0.001) Change in Sale -0.0002 (0.001) Corruption Index -0.0011 (0.000) b Time cost II 0.0041 (0.002) b 0.0055 (0.002) -0.1169 (0.225) Mining 0.0795 (0.154) -0.1201 (0.222) -0.0098 (0.065) Manufacturing 0.0036 (0.049) Construciton 0.0082 (0.062) -0.0262 (0.063) -0.0062 (0.080) -0.0223 (0.079) -0.1253 Transport 0.0021 (0.072) (0.099) -0.1300 (0.097) 0.0330 (0.065) Retail 0.0221 (0.050) 0.0223 (0.063) Other -0.1513 (0.081) -0.1997 (0.106) _cons (selection) -0.6176 (0.215) -1.9861 (0.312) lambda 0.1167 (0.295) 2.0766 (0.672) rho 0.0549 0.5400 0.5903 sigma 2.1260 3.8454 3.9361 b a a a b -0.1786 (0.108) -2.1947 (0.311) a 2.3234 (0.730) b Note: Significance labeling: a for 1%, b for 5%, c for 10% level of significance. Standard errors are in parenthesis. 25 Table VIII: Bribe Payment and Selection Equations (Heckman Selection Procedure) Independent Variable Bribe Equation Dependent Variable: Percentage of Bribe Share of Earnings Eqn: B5eck7 Eqn: B5eck8 Age (log) -0.1864 (0.071) -0.1725 (0.073) c size small 0.2415 (0.127) b 0.2663 (0.129) c size large -0.1698 (0.196) -0.1570 (0.200) 0.0048 (0.003) 0.0047 (0.003) Ability I -0.0024 (0.002) -0.0008 (0.002) Ability II 0.0265 (0.003) a 0.0265 (0.003) Time cost I -0.4076 (0.104) a GNIP (growth rate) -0.0172 (0.016) -0.0200 (0.016) 0.0614 (0.007) -0.0009 Tax evasion ratio _cons (structutal) profit margin Corruption Index Foreign share a 0.0616 (0.007) (0.002) -0.0006 (0.002) 0.0073 (0.008) 0.0091 (0.008) -0.2124 (0.487) -0.2922 (0.491) a a Selection Equation Dependent Variable: D1,i = 1 if Firms is Subject to Bribe Extortion; 0 otherwise Age (log) -0.0100 (0.022) -0.0188 size small 0.0309 (0.039) 0.0253 (0.040) size large -0.0425 (0.058) -0.0661 (0.060) profit margin -0.0005 (0.001) -0.0009 (0.001) Ability I -0.0018 (0.001) c -0.0022 (0.001) c Ability II 0.0030 (0.001) b 0.0031 (0.001) a Time cost I -0.0794 (0.034) c -0.0163 (0.007) GNIP (growth rate) -0.0163 (0.007) -0.0161 (0.009) Corruption Index -0.0098 (0.007) -0.0017 (0.001) b Foreign share -0.0032 (0.003) -0.0010 (0.000) c Change in Sale -0.0017 (0.001) b -0.0048 (0.002) c 0.0006 (0.008) b Mining -0.0046 (0.002) c -0.0206 (0.152) Manufacturing -0.0029 (0.150) -0.0153 (0.048) Construciton -0.0127 (0.047) -0.0080 (0.060) Transport -0.0014 (0.059) -0.0310 (0.070) Retail -0.0133 (0.069) 0.0304 (0.049) Other 0.0374 (0.048) -0.2118 (0.079) -0.1880 (0.077) 0.1769 (0.185) lambda 0.4515 (0.295) 0.1873 (0.311) rho 0.1750 0.0729 sigma 2.5800 2.5703 Time cost II Tax evasion ratio _cons (selection) c (0.023) 0.0066 (0.001) a 0.001 (0.008) b b Note: Significance labeling: a for 1%, b for 5%, c for 10% level of significance. Standard errors are in parenthesis. 26 Table IX: Summary Statistics for Responders vs. Non-responders about Bribe Report Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Summary Statistics for selected variables for Firm that report Bribe Payment Percentage of Profit Margin to Costs Percentage of Increase/Decrease in Earnings Percentage of Revenue reported for tax A1 A2 9000 8789 8786 8752 9106 22.03 12.86 89.98 23.20 31.03 13.96 39.01 18.56 22.92 16.42 0 -98 2 7.69 9.09 401 400 100 100 100 Summary Statistics for selected variables for Firm that did not report Bribe Payment Percentage of Profit Margin to Costs Percentage of Increase/Decrease in Earnings Percentage of Revenue reported for tax A1 A2 533 521 408 515 549 23.78 9.93 62.35 31.07 29.28 15.01 37.24 24.16 24.69 17.56 0 -95 10 7.69 9.09 100 300 99 100 100 27 Graph I: Ability (Type-I and Type-II) Distribution in all Firms, by country [Representation: Frequency according to Category] 70 140 60 Albania 50 160 250 Armenia 120 100 Belarus 200 Azerbaijan 140 120 1 00 150 40 80 30 60 80 20 60 100 40 40 50 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 100 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 140 BIH 90 80 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 100 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 200 Croatia 90 80 180 Czech Rep. 160 70 140 60 120 50 100 60 80 2 12 100 Bulgaria 120 70 1 1 13 50 40 60 40 80 40 30 60 20 20 40 30 20 10 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 120 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 11 FYROM 120 1 00 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 00 140 140 Estonia 1 00 2 Ge orgia 120 1 00 1 80 Hungary 1 60 1 40 80 1 20 80 80 1 00 60 60 60 40 80 40 60 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 10 1 140 160 Kyrgyzstan 140 120 0 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Latvia 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 20 160 120 1 11 Lithuania 140 Moldova 1 00 120 80 1 00 100 1 00 60 80 80 80 60 40 60 60 40 40 20 20 40 20 20 0 1 0 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 11 1 400 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Romania 140 120 300 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 0 450 160 Poland 350 2 12 R ussia 4 00 Slovak Rep. 100 350 80 3 00 250 1 00 60 250 200 80 150 60 100 40 1 00 20 50 2 00 40 150 20 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 13 14 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 180 Slovenia 12 0 2 4 00 300 Tajikistan 160 140 Turkey 250 100 120 200 Ukraine 350 3 00 250 1 00 80 2 00 150 80 150 60 60 100 1 00 40 40 50 50 20 20 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 9 1 12 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 140 1 60 1 40 Uzbekistan 1 20 Yugoslavia 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 Legend Chart type x-axis: category y-axis: frequency Type-I: lines Type-II: bars 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 28 Graph II: Ability Distribution (Type-I & Type-II) among FIEs, by Country [Representation: Kernel Density] 29 Graph III: Distribution of Firms by country [Evading, Forced to Bribe] Country: Albania (No. of firms = 204) Country: Belarus (No. of firms =325) (# No Tax-evasion = 88) (# No Tax-evasion =274) Bc ∩ H = 55 B ∩ H =33 Bc ∩ H = 199 B∩H = 75 Bc ∩ Hc = 64 Bc ∩ Hc = 25 B ∩ Hc = 52 B ∩ Hc = 26 (# Evasion = 116) Country: Armenia (No. of firms =351) (# Evasion =51) Country: BIH (No. of firms =200) (# No Tax-evasion = 306) (# No Tax-evasion =151) Bc ∩ H = 192 B ∩ H =114 Bc ∩ H = 109 B ∩ H = 42 Bc ∩ Hc = 33 Bc ∩ Hc = 36 B ∩ Hc = 12 B ∩ Hc = 13 (# Evasion = 49 ) (# Evasion = 45) Country: Azerbaijan (No. of firms =350) Notes: (# No Tax-evasion =223) Bc ∩ H = 164 B∩H= 59 Bc ∩ Hc = 96 B ∩ Hc = 31 Left Trapezoid, B = Ac = Always forced to bribe; right Trapezoid, A = Bc = Not always forced to bribe; area outside the oval H = Dc = Not engaged in Tax-evasion; area inside the oval D = Hc = Engaged in Taxevasion (# Evasion = 127) 30 Graph-III contd.. Country: Bulgaria (No. of firms =300) Country: Estonia (No. of firms =219) (# No Tax-evasion =204) (# No Tax-evasion =165) Bc ∩ H = 157 B∩H = 42 Bc ∩ H = 107 B∩H= 58 Bc ∩ Hc = 14 B ∩ Hc = 7 Bc ∩ Hc = 26 B ∩ Hc = 14 (# Evasion = 21) Country: Croatia (No. of firms =236) (# Evasion =40) Country: FYROM (No. of firms =200) (# No Tax-evasion =152) (# No Tax-evasion =116) Bc ∩ H = 133 B ∩ H = 62 Bc ∩ H = 65 B∩H= 51 Bc ∩ Hc = 19 B ∩ Hc = 22 Bc ∩ Hc = 47 B ∩ Hc = 37 (# Evasion =41) Country: Czech Republic (No. of firms =343) (# No Tax-evasion =234) (# Evasion = 84) Country: Georgia (No. of firms =200) (# No Tax-evasion =156) Bc ∩ H = 159 B∩H = 75 Bc ∩ H = 99 B∩H= 57 Bc ∩ Hc = 66 B ∩ Hc = 43 (# Evasion =109) Bc ∩ Hc = 30 B ∩ Hc = 14 (# Evasion =44) 31 Graph-III contd.. Country: Hungary (No. of firms =610) Country: Latvia (No. of firms =205 (# No Tax-evasion =442) (# No Tax-evasion =165) Bc ∩ H = 246 B∩H = 196 Bc ∩ H = 107 B∩H= 58 Bc ∩ Hc = 89 B ∩ Hc = 79 Bc ∩ Hc = 26 B ∩ Hc = 14 (# Evasion =168) Country: Kazakhstan (No. of firms =585) (# Evasion =40) Country: Lithuania (No. of firms =205) (# No Tax-evasion =493) (# No Tax-evasion =161) Bc ∩ H = 292 B∩H = 201 Bc ∩ H = 94 B∩H= 67 Bc ∩ Hc = 47 B ∩ Hc = 45 Bc ∩ Hc = 34 B ∩ Hc = 10 (# Evasion =82) Country: Kyrgyzstan (No. of firms =202) (# Evasion = 44) Country: Moldova (No. of firms =350) (# No Tax-evasion =131) (# No Tax-evasion =253) Bc ∩ H = 72 B∩H= 59 Bc ∩ H = 117 B∩H= 136 Bc ∩ Hc = 72 B ∩ Hc = 39 (# Evasion =71) Bc ∩ Hc = 48 B ∩ Hc = 49 (# Evasion =97 ) 32 Graph-III contd.. Country: Poland (No. of firms =975) Country: Slovak Republic (No. of firms =220) (# No Tax-evasion =670) (# No Tax-evasion =171) Bc ∩ H = 458 B∩H= 212 Bc ∩ H = 157 B∩H = 42 Bc ∩ Hc = 209 B ∩ Hc = 96 Bc ∩ Hc = 14 B ∩ Hc = 42 (# Evasion =305) Country: Romania (No. of firms =600) (# Evasion =21) Country: Slovenia (No. of firms =223) (# No Tax-evasion =494) (# No Tax-evasion =223) Bc ∩ H = 309 B∩H = 185 Bc ∩ H = 132 B∩H= 53 Bc ∩ Hc = 70 B ∩ Hc = 36 Bc ∩ Hc = 28 B ∩ Hc = 10 (# Evasion = 106) Country: Russia (No. of firms =601) (# Evasion = 38) Country: Tajikistan (No. of firms =200) (# No Tax-evasion =403) (# No Tax-evasion =150) Bc ∩ H = 228 B∩H= 175 Bc ∩ H = 100 B∩H= 50 Bc ∩ Hc = 113 B ∩ Hc = 85 (# Evasion =198) Bc ∩ Hc = 33 B ∩ Hc = 17 (# Evasion =50) 33 Graph-III contd.. Country: Turkey (No. of firms =) Country: Uzbekistan (No. of firms = 300) (# No Tax-evasion =) (# No Tax-evasion =276) Bc ∩ H = B∩H= Bc ∩ H = 150 B∩H= 126 B c ∩ Hc = B ∩ Hc = B c ∩ Hc = 9 B ∩ Hc = 15 (# Evasion = ) Country: Ukrain (No. of firms =594) (# Evasion =24 ) Country: Yugoslavia (No. of firms = 300) (# No Tax-evasion =470) (# No Tax-evasion = 222) Bc ∩ H = 259 B∩H = 211 Bc ∩ H = 151 B ∩ H =71 Bc ∩ Hc = 50 B ∩ Hc = 74 (# Evasion =124 ) Bc ∩ Hc = 41 B ∩ Hc = 37 (# Evasion = 78) 34 References [1] Aidt, T. S. (2003) “Economic analysis of corruption: a survey”, Economic Journal 113: 632-652. [2] Crocker, Keith J. and Slemrod, Joel B.,Corporate Tax Evasion with Agency Costs (August 2004). NBER Working Paper No. W10690. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=579221 [3] Djankov, S., R. La Porta, F. Lopez de Silanes and A. Schleifer (2002) “The regulation of entry”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 117: 1-37. [4] Hellman, J. S., Jones, G. & Kaufmann, D. (2002). “Far From Home: Do Foreign Investors Import Higher Standards of Governance in Transition Economies? World Bank Working Paper. The World Bank, Washington DC. [5] Hellman, J. S., Jones, G. & Kaufmann, D. (2003). Seize the State, Seize the Day: State Capture and Influence in Transition Economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 31 (4), 751–773. [6] Hellman, J. S., Jones, G. & Kaufmann, D. (2006). Far From Home: Do Foreign Investors Import Higher Standards of Governance in Transition Economies? In Corporate Governance and Globalization. Sage Publication Ltd. (Forthcoming). [7] Kaufmann, Daniel; Kraay, Aart; Mastruzzi, Massimo (2005) “Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004”, The World Bank [8] Kaufman, D., Kraay, A. & Mastruzzi, M. (2005). Measuring Governance Using Cross-Country Perceptions Data.” World Bank Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Bank. [9] Kaufmann, D. and Wei,. S. (1999). Does ‘Grease Payment’ Speed up the Wheels of Commerce. NBER Working Paper 7093. [10] Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1993). Corruption. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (3), 599-617. [11] Smarzynska, B. K. & Wei, S. (2002). Corruption and Cross-Border Investment: Firm-Level Evidence. NBER Working Paper. [12] Svensson, J. (2003). Who Must Pay Bribes and How Much? Evidence from a Cross-Section of Firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118 (1), 207-229. [13] Wei, S. (2000). How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors? Review of Economics and Statistics, 82 (1), 1-11. [14] Wei, S. (2001). Corruption in Economic Transition and Development: Grease or Sand? Mimeo. [15] Wei, S. (1997). “Why is Corruption so much more Taxing than Tax? Arbitrariness Kills. NBER Working Paper 6255. Cambridge, MA. [16] World Bank (2008) “Fighting Corruption through Collective Action: A guide for business Copyright; International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank Group. 35