Land Reform and Export-Oriented Agriculture in the Philippines and Taiwan Under Colonial Rule Michael Jolly Ryerson University, Toronto, Ontario Land reform is generally regarded as a prerequisite for economic development but is difficult to achieve in traditional societies dominated by landowning elites. Consequently it has frequently been implemented only as a result of external intervention, the most obvious example of which is rule by a foreign power. The fact of foreign rule does not, however, guarantee a successful reform since colonial rulers may seek to win over the support of local landowners by maintaining or even extending their economic dominance. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the importance of land reform through a comparative analysis of the colonial experiences of Taiwan and the Philippines. In Taiwan the Japanese authorities implemented a successful land reform which was later extended by their Guomingdang successors. In the Philippines, on the other hand, attempts at land reform in the early twentieth century (and since) have been considerably less successful. The paper also provides some empirical support for the importance of land reform to industrialization by drawing upon census data for the Philippines during the first two decades of U.S. rule. 1 Since the 1960s Taiwan has been much more successful than the Philippines in achieving export-led industrialization. In the first half of the twentieth century, however, the two countries possessed a number of similarities. Both were subject to colonial rule and had achieved relatively high rates of export growth through the sale of agricultural products to their relevant metropolitan countries (Japan in the case of Taiwan and the United States in the case of the Philippines). In both cases the colonial rulers provided a relatively good infrastructure and both countries performed well in terms of growth in real GDP per capita during the first two decades 1 For the effectiveness of land reform in Taiwan see Amsden (1979) and Ho (1982). Kohli (1994) compares the land reforms of the Japanese administrations in Korea and Taiwan in the early twentieth century. 1 1 of the twentieth century. 2 The apparent similarities, however, were balanced by significant differences in the agricultural sector, particularly with respect to land tenure systems. These differences, dating from the period of colonial rule in the early part of the twentieth century, were to play an important part in explaining the different experiences of the two countries since World War II. Land reforms in Taiwan during the period of Japanese rule (1895-1945) had both immediate impacts on the agricultural economy and longer-term effects on the development of that country’s distinctive industrial structure, with its prevalence of small and medium-sized manufacturing firms. The full impact of the Japanese reforms can only be understood if they are considered as a prerequisite for subsequent land reforms undertaken by the Guomingdang government after World War II, the end result of which was the emergence of a high productivity agricultural sector dominated by numerous small producers. This sector provided both a market for domestically manufactured goods and a localized labour force available to small, geographically dispersed firms. In contrast, the U.S. administration of the Philippines between 1898 and 1941 largely failed to achieve a successful land reform, in part because American rule depended on the cooperation of local elites. This had implications not only for agriculture in the Philippines but also for the structure of manufacturing, which was (and is) more geographically concentrated than was the case in Taiwan. This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the structure of landholding in Taiwan and the Philippines during the period in which both were subject to colonial rule. In the case of the Philippines census data for 1903 and 1918 is used to analyze some of the major changes introduced into the agrarian economy during the earlier part of the U.S. administration and their impact on the structure of manufacturing and the distribution of wealth and income. The paper is organized as follows: Section 1 discusses agricultural policy in Taiwan under Japanese colonial rule and its implications for the later development of agriculture and manufacturing. The land reforms of the 2 Between 1900 and 1929 GDP per capita increased by 42.6% (1.2% per annum) for Taiwan and by 51.4% (1.5% per annum) for the Philippines. Taiwan, however, performed better than the Philippines during the depression years between 1929 and 1938, achieving an increase in GDP per capita of 19.3% during this period, compared with a fall of 4% for the Philippines. See Maddison (1995), table D-1e. 2 2 Japanese and Guomingdang periods and their contribution to the prevalence of small and medium-sized businesses in Taiwan are analyzed. Section 2 discusses the failure of land reform during the period of U.S. rule in the Philippines. Census data for 1903 and 1918 is used to analyze regional variations in land tenure and farm size and to analyze regional shifts in the distribution of industry. It will be seen that regional variations in the structure of landholding affected the extent to which manufacturing was geographically concentrated. Section 3 provides the conclusion. 1. Taiwan Agriculture and Land Reform As a result of its victory in the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95) Japan acquired control of Taiwan (then called Formosa). As was the case with other colonial powers Japan developed its new acquisition as a complement to itself. Taiwan, which already had a flourishing export sector based on rice, tea, sugar, and other goods, would provide agricultural products, especially sugar and rice to Japan. 3 In some respects, however, the experience of Japan’s new possession differed from that of other Asian colonies. Firstly, in British, French, and Dutch colonies there was often a sharp division in the agricultural economy between rice production for local consumption and an export sector with limited spillover on subsistence agriculture, while in Taiwan many small rice farmers produced both for local subsistence and for export to Japan. Secondly, sugar cane, while certainly being grown on large tracts owned by Japanese sugar producers, was also grown by small farmers. As a result, the production of both rice and sugar were generally commercialized. Thirdly, the Japanese administration undertook a land reform which contributed to high productivity in agriculture. 4 When Japan assumed control of Taiwan much of the colony operated under a three-tier 3 R Howe (2001) provides an account of Taiwan’s economy at the time of the Sino-Japanese War. 4 See Amsden (1979) for a more detailed account of the successive land reforms in Taiwan. 3 3 tenancy system, consisting of great landlords, tenant landlords, who paid a fixed rent, and subtenants, who paid in kind to the tenant landlords. Property rights were often unclear under this system, which made it difficult to collect taxes or make land transactions. In order to increase agricultural productivity and allow for the more efficient collection of taxes the Japanese administration undertook a land reform which ended the three-tier tenancy system. The great landlords were removed and the tenant landlords became the legal owners of the land with responsibility for taxes. These landlords paid a flat tax rather than the previously levied proportional tax on output, which was considered a disincentive to agricultural improvement. Removal of the great landlords was made easier by the fact that they were generally based on mainland China so that, in contrast with the situation in Korea, its other colonial possession, Japan gained no benefit from cooperation with the great landowners. From the point of view of the tenants (previously subtenants) the system remained very oppressive, with ground rents often amounting to 50% or more of the tenant’s main crop yield. This did not, however, prevent them from improving crop yields through the application of better technology, fertilizers, and other inputs. In doing this they were assisted by agricultural associations, supported by the government and rich landlords, which provided them with technical education and assistance in the cooperative purchase of fertilizers. The effect of the Japanese land reform was not limited to the period of Japanese rule since it was the prerequisite for subsequent land reforms introduced by the Guomingdang government after its relocation from mainland China in 1949. The Guomingdang land reforms took place in three stages. Firstly, in 1949 farm rent was limited to a maximum of 37.5% of the main crop yield. Secondly, in 1951 public land previously owned by Japanese nationals was redistributed, mostly to tenants. Finally, in 1953 landlords were forced to sell all their landholdings above a minimum size to their tenants under the Land-to-the Tiller Act. This marked the end of the landlord class and the emergence of a large number of small but efficient cultivators. As was the case with the Japanese land reform half a century earlier the expropriation of the landlords was made easier by the fact that the government had no interest in gaining their support. Guomingdang leaders, coming as they did from the mainland, felt no obligation to the local elite. An important consequence of the reform was that income distribution in Taiwan became much more equal than in most less developed countries, a fact which had implications for the pattern of industrial development. 4 4 Manufacturing After World War II cut off traffic between Taiwan and Japan there was some development of local manufacturing to produce goods previously imported from Japan but generally there was little industrial development under Japanese rule. It was only after World War II and particularly from the 1960s that rapid industrialization occurred. When industrialization eventually did occur the existence of high productivity small-scale agriculture benefitted the manufacturing sector in a number of ways: (1) An efficient agricultural sector produced an adequate food supply for domestic consumption, which was a major factor in promoting price and wage stability. (2) High agricultural exports enabled the country to import inputs for export oriented manufactures. (3) The agricultural sector provided a market for consumer goods and for domestically manufactured agricultural inputs, such as chemicals. (4) Farm households acted as a dispersed source of labour for manufacturing firms. Most of the increase in incomes of farm households since 1960 has come from non-farm sources. The share of off-farm work in farm household income increased from 13% in 1952 to 25% in 1962 and 43% in 1975. 5 Thus the existence of small-scale agriculture was a factor contributing to the emergence of a pattern of widely dispersed small manufacturing firms in Taiwan. 6 2. The Philippines Under U.S. Administration During their colonial periods Taiwan and the Philippines had some features in common. Both relied on agricultural exports to the countries of their respective colonial rulers for foreign exchange and in both countries the majority of small farmers depended on rice production. 5 The interrelationships between agriculture and manufacturing in Taiwan since World War II are discussed in more detail by Amsden (1979) and Ho (1982). 6 It was by no means the only factor responsible for this pattern. The establishment of rural infrastructure by the Japanese and, later, the Guomingdang played a role, as did the laoban tradition of small and medium-sized businesses, as discussed by Numazaki (1997). 5 5 There were, however, two major differences between the two countries: (1) Though both exported sugar, Taiwan was also a major rice exporter, as a result of which small rice farmers participated in international trade and benefitted from increases in international rice prices. In the case of the Philippines rice was imported as a means of suppressing domestic prices. (2) The Japanese authorities successfully implemented a land reform in Taiwan. In the case of the Philippines the American authorities and their Filipino associates made attempts at land reform but, as will be seen below, these were inadequate and largely unsuccessful. Despite a respectable record of economic growth the Philippines was characterized by small farms and low agricultural productivity compared to some of its neighbours. The secretary of agriculture reported in 1931 that in that year Java produced yields of 240 piculs of sugar per hectare as compared with the Philippines production of only 85 piculs per hectare. 7 It was also pointed out that there were 21,000 planters occupying 260,000 hectares of sugar lands. Not surprisingly, a major cause of inefficiency in the Philippines sugar industry was the prevalence of small estates with few resources available for infrastructure or research. The situation was different in the neighbouring Dutch, British, and French colonies where large estates were common and both the government and the private sector invested considerable resources into research. Advanced technology was also frequently promoted in rice production. In the Philippines, by contrast, rice prices were kept low through a policy of cheap imports, which discouraged research by benefitting consumers at the expense of farmers. Any improvement in Philippines agriculture would have required a land reform and the allocation of substantial resources to research. Unfortunately too little was achieved in either area. Land Reform When the United States took control of the Philippines it inherited the chaotic land tenure system of the Spanish era. Over 70% of farm holdings in 1896 were untitled to the families that cultivated them. Responsibility for correcting this situation fell to the Philippines Commission, 7 One picul is equivalent to 63.26 kilos. 6 6 which was appointed to exercise both executive and legislative power in the Philippines until the election of an assembly in 1907. The Commission duly enacted a land law, which came into force in July 1904. Effectively this law placed within the public domain not only unoccupied land but also extensive land parcels already occupied, though this was intended to be a temporary measure. These parcels included lands occupied by persons who had not perfected their titles under the Spanish laws and lands to which their occupiers had no legal claim at all. Under the law free patents were to be issued to Filipinos who had occupied, or whose ancestors had occupied, public lands before 13 August 1898, the date at which the United States had taken possession of Manila. It was also indicated, however, ‘that no patents of award could be issued for homesteads, sales, leases, grants, and certification of title without land surveys conducted ot recognized by the government’. 8 As Corpuz notes, the government’s failure to undertake the necessary land surveys prevented small farmers from obtaining title to their small fragmented fields. These farmers were ‘unschooled and poor, unable to cope with the titling requirements of the law; engaged in low-value one-crop cultivation; disqualified from bank credit; vulnerable to usury, and often lost their landholdings to big landowners.’ 6 By 1910, after seven years of operation, the land registration court had certified only 3,902 registered titles and, as pointed out by the Governor-General, William Cameron Forbes, the registered lands were mostly those of persons who had some title under Spanish law. These individuals generally held medium to large-sized tracts and could afford to comply with the requirements of registration by hiring private surveyors to conduct surveys which would enable them to obtain certified titles in the land registration court. Two million small farmers, on the other hand, were unable to obtain titles and ‘continued, as they did under the Spanish regime, to cultivate land they did not own; their fields were small; they could not qualify for bank credit; but they were subject to the land tax just as much as the large landowners’. 9 The slow pace of land registration is indicated by the fact that by 1918 decrees in land registration cases since 1903 totaled 88,077 parcels of land with a total area of 894,875 hectares. This compares with an actual total of 1,955,273 farms and a total farm area of 4,563,727 hectares. 10 The inability of the 8 Corpuz (1997), p.275. Ibid, p.278. 10 Annual Report of the Governor-General, 1933, p.71; Census of 1918. 9 7 7 government to cope with the need to register land was at least partly due to the fact that from 1916 it depended on a Filipino legislature. Large landowners, who were influential in the Philippines legislature, both during the period of U.S. rule and since the achievement of independence have generally obstructed attempts at land reform. Thus the failure to implement effective reform during the period of U.S. rule in the Philippines was in part due to the fact that the administration felt constrained to cooperate with a local landowning elite. An indication of the limited extent of land reform in the Philippines during the early period of the U.S. administration can be obtained from an analysis of the censuses of 1903 and 1918, using average farm size and the proportion of cultivated land farmed by owners as indicators of land reform. For the Philippines as a whole total cultivated land increased by 62% between 1903 and 1918, from 2,821,661 hectares to 4,563,727 hectares. During the same period the total number of farms increased by 140% and average farm size fell by 33% from 3.47 to 2.33 hectares, though there were significant provincial variations, as will be seen below. While the total number of farms increased by 140% the increase in the number of farms held by a form of tenancy increased by 174%, so that the proportion of farms cultivated by their owners fell slightly from 81% in 1903 to 78% in 1918. Therefore the average Filipino peasant not only had a smaller farm in 1918 than in 1903 but was less likely to own the land on which he worked. In the case of Taiwan land policies had effects not only on agricultural productivity but also on the development of manufacturing. That this was also true for the Philippines becomes apparent when we look at the provincial or regional as opposed to national situation. The regional data shows a clear relationship between farm size and land tenure on the one hand and the geographical distribution of manufacturing on the other. Land Use The Philippines censuses of 1903 and 1918 break down statistics of farm size, land tenure, crop production, and manufacturing output by province. As will be seen from Appendix 2, the provinces of 1918 did not always coincide with those of 1903. Partly for this reason and partly because some of the provinces were very small, the relevant statistics are here broken down by region rather than province, with the exception of statistics relating to Mindanao. Since the regions had unequal populations in both 1903 and 1918 statistics are presented on a per 8 8 capita basis throughout. 11 Table 1 indicates average farm size and (as a proxy for land reform) the proportion of agricultural land farmed by owners in 1903 and 1918. 1. Farm Size and Farm Ownership by Region (1903, 1918) 1903 1918 Proportion of Proportion of Average Farmed Area Average Farmed Area Farm Size Farmed by Farm Size Farmed by (hectares) Owners (%) (hectares) Owners (%) Ilocos 1.49 46.58 12 0.78 62.01 12 Cagayan Valley 6.62 87.16 2.09 59.91 Central Luzon 5.09 57.46 3.44 69.61 City of Manila 1.37 47.43 1.17 44.21 Calabarzon 3.50 73.19 2.52 70.77 Cordillera 3.81 19.16 2.83 94.49 Mimaro 6.45 83.60 4.38 80.64 Bicol 5.07 92.68 3.24 80.87 Mindanao 3.79 94.59 13 3.78 78.21 13 Region Luzon 11 The provinces of the Philippines were organized into eleven regions in 1972. By May 2005 the number of regions had been expanded to seventeen, incorporating 81 provinces plus the National Capital Region (Manila). In this paper the regions defined in 2005 are used except in the case of Mindanao. Since it had a relatively small population between 1903 and 1918, the island’s six current regions are amalgamated into one. 12 For Ilocos the data on the proportion of farmed area farmed by owners omits the province of La Union since the relevant information for this province was not reported for 1918. If La Union is included the proportion for 1903 would be 51.07. 13 Omits Cotabato since land tenure data for this province was not reported for 1918. If Cotabato Footnote continued 9 9 Visayas Western Visayas 6.15 81.62 4.23 67.46 Central Visayas 1.58 95.47 14 1.65 90.59 14 Eastern Visayas 3.77 89.00 2.77 94.11 Philippines 3.47 76.70 2.33 75.44 (Source: Calculated from information in the 1903 and 1918 censuses of the Philippines.) It can be seen that in general for the regions in which there was a relatively low proportion of ownership (high proportion of tenancy) average farm sizes also tended to be small, while in regions which exhibited a high proportion of ownership average farm size tended to be above the average for the Philippines as a whole. 15 The varying patterns of farm size and land ownership were associated with different crop specializations as can be seen from table 2, which indicates per capita production by region of the six major crops produced in the Philippines in 1918. is included the proportion for 1903 becomes 94.79. 14 Omits Bohol, for which land tenure data was not reported for 1918. If Bohol is included the proportion for 1903 becomes 98.06. 15 Ilocos and Cagayan Valley both exhibited low proportions of owner occupied farms and small average farm sizes in 1918, while Cordillera and Eastern Visayas had high proportions of owner occupation and above average farm size. Central Visayas was something of an anomaly in being characterized by small owner occupied farms. 10 10 2. Crop Production by Region (Production per capita) (1918) Region Rice Sugar Tobacco Copra Abaca Corn (cavans) Cane (kilos) (kilos) (kilos) (cavans) (tons) Ilocos 13.07 0.35 16.04 2.70 0.00 0.42 Cagayan Valley 3.56 0.01 77.50 0.66 0.00 3.22 Central Luzon 9.90 1.13 1.85 0.51 0.00 0.20 City of Manila 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Calabarzon 2.26 0.50 0.07 64.30 8.08 0.11 Cordillera 1.99 0.04 21.90 0.00 0.00 0.96 Mimaro 2.59 0.38 1.27 44.02 26.82 0.16 Bicol 1.92 0.02 0.25 23.28 16.35 0.12 Mindanao 0.95 0.01 0.24 6.44 33.65 0.53 Western Visayas 3.41 0.72 1.95 5.57 8.24 0.37 Central Visayas 0.49 0.05 2.93 25.98 4.93 4.27 Eastern Visayas 1.03 0.02 0.84 22.75 13.15 0.59 (Source: Calculated from information in the 1918 census of the Philippines.) A comparison of tables 1 and 2 suggests the following: (1) The predominantly rice producing regions, Ilocos and Central Luzon, exhibited high proportions of tenancy. (2) The abaca plant (Manila hemp) was a major crop in Mindanao, Mimaro, Bicol, and Eastern Visayas. Abaca growing was very labour intensive and in all of these regions a relatively large proportion of the land was farmed by owners. (3) It is difficult to establish any simple relationship between land tenure or average farm size and the production of copra, sugar cane, tobacco, or corn since they were grown in 11 11 association with rice or abaca. Copra production, for example, predominantly occurred in Calabarzon, Mimaro, Bicol, and the Central and Eastern Visayas. Of these regions Mimaro, Bicol, and Eastern Visayas were also major producers of abaca and, as noted above, were characterized by a predominance of owner occupied farms. It was common in the second and third decades of the twentieth century to mix coconuts and abaca. Calabarzon, with long established coconut plantations, contained the two most important copra producing provinces (Laguna and Tyabas). In summary, rice production was associated with tenant farming, while production of abaca was associated with independent farmers. Manufacturing Of greater interest, from the point of view of this paper, is the relationship between manufacturing and land ownership. In the period since World War II the Philippines has been characterized by a pattern of manufacturing which is more centralized geographically than is the case for Taiwan. The dispossession of landlords by the Japanese resulted in the growth of a class of independent farmers in Taiwan, who provided a market for small and medium-sized local manufacturing firms. Failures in land reform in the Philippines provide a possible explanation for the different pattern of industrialization in that country. As has been shown there were regional variations the pattern of land holdings in the Philippines during the colonial period. Therefore some indication of the impact of land reform or its failure may be achieved by analyzing regional variations in manufacturing output and landholding patterns. Table 3 shows the value of manufactured output per capita by region for 1903 and 1918 and the annual rate of growth of this variable between those dates. 12 12 3. Manufacturing Output Per Capita, 1903-1918 Output per Capita Output per Capita Annual Increase Region (1903) (pesos) (1918) (pesos) (%) Ilocos 1.84 1.68 -0.6 Cagayan Valley 0.31 1.66 12 Central Luzon 2.04 5.99 7 City of Manila 130.00 517.21 10 Calabarzon 5.66 8.59 3 Cordillera 0.10 6.13 32 Mimaro 0.50 1.00 5 Bicol 1.69 10.41 13 Mindanao 0.37 2.05 12 Western Visayas 1.14 3.95 9 Central Visayas 0.75 9.62 19 Eastern Visayas 0.23 33.00 39 (Source: Calculated from information in the 1903 and 1918 censuses of the Philippines.) From the table it is obvious that in both 1903 and 1918 Manila was by far the most industrialized region of the country. When 1903 and 1918 are compared it is also apparent that three regions, Cordillera, Central Visayas, and Eastern Visayas, saw relatively rapid growth in manufactured output per capita, while Ilocos saw a decrease. When the agricultural sector is brought into the picture it becomes clear that these shifts are associated with regional differences in land ownership and land use. As is apparent from table 2, Ilocos had the highest production of rice per capita of any region in 1918. Since rice was produced for the domestic market at prices which the administration kept at a low level by means of imports, government policies tended to depress incomes in this region. Ilocos was also the region with the lowest average farm size and one of the highest rates of tenant farming in the Philippines. In contrast, the three regions with the 13 13 highest proportion of farms cultivated by owners in 1918 were Cordillera (94.5%), Central Visayas (90.6%), and Eastern Visayas (94.1%). These were also the regions which saw the most rapid growth in industrial output between 1903 and 1918, with manufactured output per capita growing by 32% per annum in Cordillera, 19% per annum in Central Visayas, and 39% per annum in Eastern Visayas. Widespread land ownership may have contributed to a rapid growth in manufactured output in the following two ways: (1) Since farmers who owned their own farms had greater incentives to innovate, there was more efficient land use and therefore a higher per capita income, creating greater local demand for manufactured output. (2) Regardless of productivity, because of evenly distributed land ownership the distribution of wealth and income was more equal than in other regions, resulting in a local demand for basic manufactured consumer goods. Consequently labour was be drawn off the land into manufacturing. These effects are not mutually exclusive but the census data suggests that it was greater equality of income and wealth rather than higher productivity that determined the regional distribution of manufacturing. If higher productivity of land was the primary determinant we would expect a correlation between changes in land prices and per capita increases in manufactured output. If, on the other hand, labour was being drawn into manufacturing because a region showed more than average equality of income and wealth there need be no such correlation. We might even see a decrease in land values over time because of reduced labour input per hectare. The 1903 and 1918 censuses provide provincial data on real property values, which are given in table 4. 14 14 4. Real Property Per Capita, 1903-1918 Real Property per Real Property per Annual Increase Capita (1903) Capita (1918) (%) (pesos) (pesos) Ilocos 57.49 60.91 0.4 Cagayan Valley 45.31 94.44 5.0 Central Luzon 135.60 117.18 -1.0 City of Manila 437.54 602.12 2.2 Calabarzon 96.07 122.93 1.7 Cordillera 64.84 47.39 -2.1 Mimaro 46.63 47.70 0.2 Bicol 79.94 108.74 2.1 Mindanao 16.67 48.28 7.3 Western Visayas 74.31 64.46 -0.9 Central Visayas 42.56 47.43 0.7 Eastern Visayas 76.61 55.03 -2.2 Region (Source: Calculated from information in the 1903 and 1918 censuses of the Philippines.) It can be seen that the regions (apart from Manila) which saw the most rapid growth in manufacturing saw a decrease in the value of real property between 1903 and 1918. If the growth of local manufacturing was driven by local demand a more even distribution of income and wealth must have outweighed lower overall levels per capita. 3. Conclusion Export-based agriculture is possible with an agricultural sector which exhibits low productivity and a highly unequal pattern of land ownership. Land reform does, however, seem to be necessary if a less developed country is to accomplish the transition from a low-income, agriculturally based economy to one based on manufacturing. This then gives rise to two 15 15 questions. Firstly, how is land reform to be achieved in the face of opposition from landlords and, secondly, how is it related to the development of manufacturing? This paper seeks to answer the first of these questions through a comparative study of Taiwan and the Philippines during the earlier part of the twentieth century, when both were subject to colonial rule. In the case of Taiwan the Japanese administration was able to force through a land reform with little difficulty since it had no interest in placating the great landlords, who were mostly resident in mainland China. For similar reasons the Guomingdang government was later able to complete the work begun by the Japanese because, coming as it did from the mainland, it felt no obligation to Taiwanese landlords. Land reform in the Philippines during the period of American rule was much less successful than was the case in Taiwan despite, or perhaps because of, the fact that the American government was generally more benevolent in its attitude to the local population than the Japanese administration in Taiwan. The U.S. administration sought the cooperation of the Filipino population, which effectively meant the local elite of landlords and wealthy merchants. It therefore failed to force through land reform and successive governments of the Philippines since independence have lacked the strength or will to do so. Thus the experience of these two Asian countries suggests that land reform is unlikely to be achieved without some foreign authority or strong external pressure to overcome the obstruction of local landowning elites. Answers to the second question were suggested through an analysis of regional variations in land tenure and manufacturing concentration by making use of the Philippines censuses of 1903 and 1918. It was found that manufacturing growth occurred most strongly in those regions in which the agricultural sector was characterized by small, independent farmers, such as those who were to emerge in Taiwan after World War II. In the Philippines, however, this pattern of land ownership was to remain localized. More typical was a pattern of impoverished peasants, often tenants, producing rice for subsistence or for sale on the domestic market at prices kept low by imports. 16 16 Appendix 1 Population by Region (1903, 1918) Region 1903 1918 Increase (%) Ilocos 974,897 1,262,676 29.5 Cagayan Valley 295,211 347,141 17.6 Central Luzon 868,086 1,047,974 20.7 Manila 219,928 285,306 29.7 Calabarzon 896,762 1,192,241 32.9 Cordillera 74,605 116,499 56.2 Mimaro 128,126 205,594 60.5 Bicol 643,901 840,004 30.5 Mindanao 670,833 1,106,159 64.9 Western Visayas 1,083,474 1,347,249 24.3 Central Visayas 1,124,444 1,485,976 24.3 Eastern Visayas 655,159 977,525 49.2 17 17 Appendix 2 Regions and Provinces Modern Region Ilocos Provinces and Comandancias Provinces and Sub-Provinces (1903) (1918) Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Amburayan, Ilocos Norte, Pangasinan Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan Cagayan Valley Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya Central Luzon Bataan, Bulucan, Nueva Ecija, Bataan, Bulucan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales Manila Manila City Manila City Calabarzon Batangas, Cavite, La Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Tayabas Rizal, Tayabas Cordillera Abra, Benguet, Lepanto-Bontoc Abra, Benguet Mimaro Marinduque, Mindoro, Paragua, Marinduque, Mindoro, Palawan, Paragua Sur, Romblon Romblon Bicol Albay, Ambos Camarines, Masbate, Albay, Ambos Camarines, Sorsogon Catanduanes, Masbate, Sorsogon Mindanao Basilan, Cotabato, Dapitan, Davao, Agusan, Bukidnon, Cotabato, Jolo, Misamis, Surigao, Tawi Tawi, Davao, Lanao, Misamis, Sulu, Zamboanga Surigao, Zamboanga 18 18 Western Visayas Central Visayas Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Negros Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Occidental Occidental Negros Bohol, Cebu, Negros Oriental Bohol, Cebu, Oriental Negros, Siquijor Eastern Visayas Leyte, Samar Leyte, Samar References Amsden, A.H. 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