IN THE CIRCUIT COURT FOR THE SECOND JUDICIAL CIRCUIT IN AND FOR LEON COUNTY, FLORIDA RENE ROMO, an individual; BENJAMIN WEAVER, an individual; et al., Plaintiffs, vs. CASE NO. 2012-CA-000412 KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of State; PAMELA JO BONDI, in her official capacity as Attorney General; et al., Defendants. ____________________________________/ THE LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF FLORIDA; THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF LA RAZA; et al., Plaintiffs, vs. CASE NO. 2012-CA-000490 KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of State; THE FLORIDA SENATE; et al., Defendants. ____________________________________/ ROMO PLAINTIFFS’ MOTION FOR CLARIFICATION OR, IN THE ALTERNATIVE, RECONSIDERATION OF THE JANUARY 17, 2013 ORDER GRANTING IN PART AND DENYING IN PART THE FLORIDA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES’ MOTION TO COMPEL DISCOVERY RELATED TO ALTERNATIVE MAPS The Romo Plaintiffs respectfully request that the Court clarify, or in the alternative, reconsider its January 17, 2013 Order (the “Order”) to the extent that it requires the disclosure of privileged communications with a non-testifying expert, NCEC Services, Inc. (“NCEC”), including communications among and between NCEC, the Florida Democratic Party (the “FDP”), and/or Plaintiffs’ counsel. 1 The Romo Plaintiffs are producing map-related documents in response to the Court’s Order, but they seek clarification or reconsideration with respect to the specific categories of documents addressed in this motion. As established by the accompanying affidavit of counsel for the Romo Plaintiffs, John Devaney, NCEC was retained in anticipation of this litigation to provide consulting services as a non-testifying expert. The Florida Rules of Civil Procedure prohibit discovery of non-testifying experts except upon a showing of “exceptional circumstances” not present here. Fla. R. Civ. P. 1.280(b)(5)(B). Although the Romo Plaintiffs made this argument in their opposition to the House of Representatives’ (“Defendants”) motion to compel, neither the Court’s oral ruling nor the Order evaluated whether Defendants had made the requisite showing. As described below, Defendants plainly failed to meet their burden. Accordingly, the communications with NCEC remain protected by the work product privilege under well-established Florida law. Furthermore, as written, the Order could be read to reach communications among and between NCEC, the FDP, and Plaintiffs’ counsel, which are protected by the attorney-client privilege. For these reasons, the Romo Plaintiffs request that the Court clarify or, in the alternative, reconsider its ruling as it relates to these types of privileged materials. I. BACKGROUND Prior to initiating this litigation in February of 2012, counsel for the Romo Plaintiffs engaged NCEC as a consulting expert, primarily to assist with evaluating the 1 The Romo Plaintiffs have conferred with counsel for Defendants and have been advised that Defendants will oppose this motion. For ease of reference, the Order is attached as Exhibit A to this brief. 2 Legislature’s 2012 congressional map when enacted (the “2012 Plan”) and preparing alternative maps for potential use in these proceedings. Declaration of John Devaney (“Devaney Decl.”) ¶ 2. Counsel never intended that any NCEC consultant would testify at trial and all communications with NCEC were conducted with the understanding that they were protected, under well-established Florida law, by privilege. Id. ¶ 3. In its capacity as a consulting expert, NCEC was involved in several communications with the client about potential alternative draft maps. NCEC was retained as a consulting expert precisely because of its expertise in redistricting (specifically in mapdrawing), and its involvement in client communications was necessary to assist counsel in rendering legal advice to the client about potential alternative draft maps. These communications were understood to be confidential. Id. ¶ 4. Shortly after filing their Complaint, Plaintiffs requested that this Court consider the matter on an expedited schedule. The Court rejected Plaintiffs’ request for expedited consideration of the entire matter, but suggested that “[i]t may be possible . . . to separate Plaintiffs’ ‘facial’ challenges to the legislation from the ‘as applied’ challenges, and to resolve the former on an expedited basis.” (Ex. B at 2). The Court explained that it anticipated that the initial “facial” review would be “similar to that recently conducted by the Florida Supreme Court in In re: Senate Joint Resolution of Apportionment 1176, No. SC12-1 (Fla. S. Ct. March 9, 2012).” Id. In other words, there would be no discovery, but Plaintiffs would be free to submit alternative maps against which to contrast the 2012 Plan. The Court directed Plaintiffs to file any such motion for facial review by March 26, with a hearing to be held on April 16. Id. at 3. 3 As the Court envisioned, there was no testimony at the April hearing, only argument from counsel regarding the facial validity of the 2012 Plan. Together with their brief, Plaintiffs submitted an alternative map to provide an example of how the Legislature might have drawn the new congressional district lines differently. In support, Plaintiffs submitted a description of the data, software and criteria used in creating the alternative map, the compactness scores for the map, the map’s population by district, and reports on the map’s county boundaries, boundaries of voting tabulation districts and constituents from prior districts. (Ex. C). Plaintiffs also submitted affidavits by counsel explaining the process by which the objective data for analyzing the alternative map was obtained (Ex. D), and by testifying expert Stephen Ansolabehere who analyzed and assessed the facial validity of the alternative map (Ex. E). On April 30, the Court issued an order denying Plaintiffs’ motion and specifically declining to find “that the [2012 Plan] is, on its face, in violation of the Florida State Constitution.” Order Denying Motions for Summary Judgment 1. As counsel has previously advised Defendants and this Court, the Romo Plaintiffs do not intend to present the same alternative map submitted to the Court at the facial review hearing at trial. Instead, the Romo Plaintiffs will present a different alternative map, which is currently being prepared and which will be disclosed to Defendants, together with an expert report and supporting data, by the Court’s disclosure deadline of February 15, 2013. Devaney Decl. ¶ 5. In the meantime, Defendants have sought broad discovery related to the now-irrelevant alternative map presented to the Court last Spring. At a hearing held on December 11, 2012, the Court considered Defendants’ motion to compel and issued an oral ruling granting it in part and denying it in part. The 4 Court directed the parties to submit a proposed order implementing that ruling, but when the parties attempted to reach agreement on the form of an order they discovered that they had very different interpretations of the Court’s conclusion. As a result, the parties submitted competing proposed orders. (Ex. F & G). The Order that the Court ultimately issued on January 17, which appears to be a modified version of the Order submitted by Plaintiffs, provides in relevant part: [F]or any alternative map the Plaintiffs have or intend to present, either in part or whole, as evidence in this case, Defendants are entitled to the discovery requested, including documents and information relating to the process by which alternative maps were prepared, identities of individuals who prepared them, and activities and communications concerning alternative maps. (Ex. A at 2-3). Concerned that this language could be read to reach material that is privileged under well-established Florida law, the Romo Plaintiffs felt it necessary to seek clarification or, in the alternative, reconsideration. In the meantime, the Romo Plaintiffs are complying with the Court’s order by producing map-related documents that do not raise the concerns addressed here. II. ARGUMENT A. Communications With Non-Testifying Expert NCEC Regarding Alternative Maps Are Protected By the Work-Product Privilege Because NCEC was retained by Plaintiffs in anticipation of this litigation and will not be called as a witness at trial, communications with NCEC are protected by the work product privilege and may not be subject to discovery unless Defendants make a showing of “exceptional circumstances.” Fla. R. Civ. P. 1.280(b)(5)(B). Defendants have not and could not make this showing. The Court’s order granting in part and denying in part Defendants’ motion to compel should either be clarified or modified, so as not to reach communications with NCEC for the reasons discussed below. 5 Florida Rule of Civil Procedure 1.280(b)(5)(B) strictly limits discovery from nontestifying or consulting experts: A party may discover facts known or opinions held by an expert who has been retained or specially employed by another party in anticipation of litigation or preparation for trial and who is not expected to be called as a witness at trial, only . . . upon a showing of exceptional circumstances under which is it impracticable for the party seeking discovery to obtain facts or opinions on the same subject by other means. Id. 2 In order “[t]o demonstrate a ‘need’ sufficient to compel discovery of work-product materials, ‘a party must present testimony or evidence demonstrating that the material requested is critical to the theory of the requestor’s case, or to some significant aspect of the case.’” Nevin v. Palm Beach Cnty. Sch. Bd., 958 So.2d 1003, 1006-07 (Fla. 1st DCA 2007) (quoting Metric Eng’g, Inc. v. Small, 861 So.2d 1248, 1250 (Fla. 1st DCA 2003)). Where, as in this case, the party seeking discovery has access to the same factual information underlying the non-testifying expert’s opinions and is able to obtain its own expert opinion regarding those facts, it cannot meet the “exceptional circumstances” requirement. Id. at 1007. The Florida District Courts of Appeal have strictly enforced this Rule, and regularly quash orders entered by the circuit court where the court (1) fails to expressly hear evidence on whether the exceptional circumstances requirement has been met; (2) orders production of potentially-protected expert material prematurely (i.e., before the expert has been identified as a trial witness); or (3) conducts the requisite exceptional circumstances inquiry, but applies too broad a standard. See, e.g., Taylor v. Penske Truck Leasing Co., 975 So.2d 588, 589 (Fla. 1st DCA 2008) (quashing order requiring 2 The Rule also provides that discovery may be obtained under the circumstances provided for in Rule 1.360(b), but that rule is not relevant to this litigation. 6 disclosure of expert opinions and factual bases underlying plaintiff’s answers to interrogatories where lower court failed to conduct an evidentiary hearing as to exceptional circumstances); Muldrow v. State, 787 So.2d 159, 161 (Fla. 2d DCA 2001) (quashing order “to the extent that it compelled disclosure of experts consulted for trial but not listed as witnesses”); Horne v. K-Mart Corp., 558 So.2d 1079, 1080 (Fla. 4th DCA 1990) (quashing order requiring production of video showing party’s “expert (not yet designated for trial) performing and explaining tests on the venetian blind and the adjustment cord” central to the personal injury suit where defendants had access to the blind and photographs of the blind and could obtain a court order to gain access to plaintiffs’ former home to view the window area). The strict rule against discovery of consulting experts absent exceptional circumstances applies even when the expert in question was formerly designated as a testifying expert, but has since been withdrawn. Forman v. Fink, 646 So.2d 236, 237 (Fla. 3d DCA 1994). See also Durflinger v. Artiles, 727 F.2d 888, 891 (10th Cir. 1984) (finding equivalent federal rule violated when defendants sought information from expert who had been listed as a trial witness for plaintiffs but who plaintiffs subsequently advised defendants they would not be calling); In re Shell Oil Refinery, 132 F.R.D. 437, 440-41 (E.D. La. 1990) (finding non-testifying experts protected by the rule even where party initially disclosed expert’s reports “as preliminary reports of experts it expected to call at trial” but decided not to call the experts at trial prior to the court-imposed deadline for exchange of witness lists). Under the law summarized above, communications with NCEC are clearly protected by the work product privilege. NCEC was hired in the capacity of a consulting expert to assist the Romo Plaintiffs in this litigation, and testimony from NCEC will not 7 be proffered at trial. Defendants were therefore required to produce evidence to support a finding of “exceptional circumstances” in order to obtain discovery of communications with or reports by NCEC. But Defendants produced no such evidence; the hearing on their motion to compel considered only legal argument and at no point did the Court— either in its oral ruling or its Order—conduct an inquiry into whether exceptional circumstances permitted the discovery of communications with and materials prepared by NCEC, a non-testifying expert. 3 For this reason alone, to the extent the Order could be read to reach communications with and materials prepared by NCEC, it would depart from the essential requirements of law and should be clarified or modified. See Taylor, 975 So.2d at 589. But even if the Court had held an evidentiary hearing and conducted the requisite analysis, Defendants would not have been able to meet their burden. It is undisputed that Defendants have access to the same factual information that underlies the map submitted at the facial review and are able to obtain their own expert opinion regarding those facts. Nevin, 958 So.2d at 1007. The fact that Defendants would rather have this discovery to demonstrate, for example, an inconsistency at trial, is not sufficient to establish the exceptional showing of need required under Rule 1.280(b)(5)(B). Nevin, 958 So.2d at 1007. 3 Based on the transcript of the December 11th hearing, it appears that the Court’s primary concern was ensuring there is a proper foundation for—and proper disclosure of—any map that the Romo Plaintiffs present to the Court for possible adoption in place of the 2012 Plan. (Ex. H). The Romo Plaintiffs’ production of the map that they intend to introduce at trial, and all non-privileged documents and data relating to it, will provide both the requisite foundation for the map’s admission and meet all disclosure requirements. 8 Finally, the fact that Plaintiffs previously produced an alternative map that was prepared with NCEC’s assistance does not strip NCEC of the protection afforded nontestifying experts. The Rule’s plain language applies to all experts retained to assist in litigation who are not expected to testify at trial. NCEC clearly did not “testify” at the April 16th facial review hearing, either in the presence of the Court or by affidavit. But even if submission of the map alone could be construed as NCEC “testifying” (and there is no legal basis for such a conclusion), that hearing was clearly not a “trial.” Not only does the Rule provide no exception for discovery of experts who testify at preliminary hearings, the First District Court of Appeal has expressly found that the Rule applies even where consulting experts provide the sole source for documents produced in the course of litigation. See Taylor, 975 So.2d at 589 (quashing order compelling plaintiffs to disclose the expert opinions and factual bases for the answers to interrogatories in personal injury action where plaintiff had no memory of the accident and relied on consulting experts to answer interrogatories). In such cases, the party seeking the discovery still must produce evidence that demonstrates an exceptional need for the information. Id. Because no such need has been or could be demonstrated here, the Court’s order should be clarified or modified to protect communications with and materials prepared by NCEC as required by Rule 1.280(b)(5)(B). B. Communications Among NCEC, the FDP and Plaintiffs’ Counsel Are Also Protected by the Attorney-Client Privilege The Court’s Order should also be clarified or modified so as not to reach privileged communications among NCEC, the FDP, and Plaintiffs’ counsel. 4 In the 4 In the same Order, the Court denied Defendants’ motion to compel communications among and between the Romo Plaintiffs, Plaintiffs’ counsel and the FDP, recognizing 9 course of reviewing information potentially responsive to Defendants’ motion to compel, Plaintiffs have become concerned that the Order could be interpreted broadly to reach such communications. This would be improper under Florida law. Under Florida law, “[a] communication between lawyer and client is ‘confidential’ if it is not intended to be disclosed to third persons other than: 1. Those to whom disclosure is in furtherance of the rendition of legal services to the client. 2. Those reasonably necessary for the transmission of the communication.” Fla. Stat. § 90.502(1)(c). Consistent with this definition, courts have long understood that “[t]he attorney-client privilege extends to agents of the attorney where the confidential communication was made for the purpose of assisting the attorney in rendering legal advice to the client.” Graff v. Haverhill N. Coke Co., No. 1:09-CV-670, 2012 WL 5495514, at *15 (S.D. Ohio Nov. 13, 2012) (citing cases). See also Reginald Martin Agency, Inc. v. Conseco Med. Ins. Co., 460 F. Supp. 2d 915, 921 (S.D. Ind. 2006) (finding communications between client and consulting expert subject to the attorneyclient privilege); Hanover Ins. Co. v. Rapo & Jepsen Ins. Servs., Inc., 449 Mass. 609, 616 (2007) (holding attorney-client privilege protects “statements made to or shared with necessary agents of the attorney or the client, including experts consulted for the purpose of facilitating the rendition of [legal] advice”); 2 Jack B. Weinstein & Margaret A. Berger, Weinstein’s Evidence ¶ 503.12[5][b] at 503-312.4 (2012) (noting that the attorney-client privilege is recognized as extending to non-testifying experts consulted by that these documents are protected by the attorney-client privilege. (Ex. A at 2). As explained in the opposition to Defendants’ motion to compel these communications, the FDP and the Romo Plaintiffs share a common interest in this litigation and the FDP facilitated some confidential and privileged communications with the Romo Plaintiffs. See Romo Plaintiffs’ Opposition to Florida House of Representatives’ Motion to Compel Production of Privileged Documents 2-3, 5-6. 10 attorneys where the expert obtains information from confidential communications with the client). Unlike the work-product privilege that applies to consulting experts, “[t]he attorney-client privilege is not subject to any balancing test and . . . cannot be discovered by a showing of need, undue hardship, or some other competing interest.” Hagans v. Gatorland Kubota, LLC/Sentry Ins., 45 So.3d 73, 76 (Fla. 1st DCA 2010). For the reasons discussed above, communications with NCEC—whether involving the FDP or not—are privileged under the work-product rule applicable to consulting experts. But communications among NCEC and Plaintiffs’ counsel, which involved the FDP and were made in furtherance of the rendition of legal services to Plaintiffs and the FDP are also protected by the attorney-client privilege. In these conversations, NCEC was properly acting in its role as consulting expert as Plaintiffs’ counsel’s agent and the communications were (1) made for the purpose of assisting Plaintiffs’ counsel in rendering legal advice to Plaintiffs and the FDP; (2) confidential; and (3) reasonably necessary for the communication. Devaney Decl. ¶¶ 3-4. Because the attorney-client privilege is absolute and there can be no showing of need or exceptional circumstances that can displace it, the Court’s order should be clarified or modified to except the privileged communications between NCEC, the FDP and Plaintiffs’ counsel. III. CONCLUSION It is well-established that, under Florida law, discovery of a non-testifying expert may only be had upon a showing of exceptional circumstances. Defendants have not and could not make such a showing under the circumstances here. Accordingly, the Court’s Order should be clarified or modified to exempt discovery of communications with and documents prepared by Plaintiffs’ non-testifying expert NCEC. In addition, the communications between and among NCEC, the FDP and Plaintiffs’ counsel are 11 protected by the attorney-client privilege. The Court’s order should be clarified or modified to ensure the protection of these materials. Respectfully submitted, Dated: January 28, 2013 By:___/s/_Mark Herron_____ Mark Herron Florida Bar No.: 199737 Email: mherron@lawfla.com Robert J. Telfer III Florida Bar No.: 128694 Email: rtelfer@lawfla.com Angelina Perez Florida Bar No.: 98063 Email: aperez@lawfla.com MESSER CAPARELLO, P.A. 2618 Centennial Place Tallahassee, FL 32308 Telephone: (850) 222-0720 Facsimile: (850) 558-0659 Marc Elias (admitted pro hac vice) Kevin J. Hamilton (admitted pro hac vice) John Devaney (admitted pro hac vice) Abha Khanna (admitted pro hac vice) Elisabeth Frost (admitted pro hac vice) Noah Guzzo Purcell (admitted pro hac vice) PERKINS COIE LLP 700 13th St., N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20005-3960 Tel: (202) 654-6200 Fax: (202) 654-6211 Email: MElias@perkinscoie.com Email: KHamilton@perkinscoie.com Email: JDevaney@perkinscoie.com Email: AKhanna@perkinscoie.com Email: EFrost@perkinscoie.com Email: Npurcell@perkinscoie.com Attorneys for the Romo Plaintiffs 12 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I HEREBY CERTIFY that a true and correct copy of the foregoing has been furnished by Electronic Mail this 28th day of January, 2013 to each of the following parties on the attached service list: __/s/ Mark Herron_____ Mark Herron MESSER CAPARELLO, P.A. 2618 Centennial Place Tallahassee, FL 32308 Telephone: (850) 222-0720 Email: mherron@lawfla.com 13 SERVICE LIST Daniel E. Nordby, General Counsel Florida House of Representatives 422 The Capitol 402 South Monroe Street Tallahassee FL 32399-1300 Primary Email: daniel.nordby@myfloridahouse.gov Secondary Email: Lynn.imhof@myfloridahouse.gov Charles T. Wells George N. Meros, Jr. Jason L. Unger Andy Bardos GRAY ROBINSON, P.A. Post Office Box 11189 Tallahassee, FL 32302 Primary Email: charles.wells@gray-robinson.com george.meros@gray-robinson.com Secondary Email: Croberts@gray-robinson.com mwilkinson@gray-robinson.com Primary Email: jason.unger@gray-robinson.com andy.bardos@gray-robinson.com Secondary Email: tbarreiro@gray-robinson.com Michael A. Carvin Louis K. Fisher JONES DAY 51 Louisiana Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 macarvin@jonesday.com lkfisher@jonesday.com Miguel A. De Grandy MIGUEL DE GRANDY, P.A. 800 Douglas Road, Suite 850 Coral Gables, FL 33134 mad@degrandylaw.com George T. Levesque, General Counsel The Florida Senate 404 South Monroe Street Tallahassee, FL 32399-1100 Primary Email: levesque.george@flsenate.gov Secondary Email:glevesque4@comcast.net carter.velma@flsenate.gov Ronald G. Meyer Lynn Hearn MEYER, BROOKS, DEMMA & BLOHM. P.A. 131 North Gadsden Street P.O. Box 1547 (32302) Tallahassee, FL 32301 rmeyer@meyerbrookslaw.com lhearn@meyerbrookslaw.com 14 Jessica Ring Amunson Michael B. DeSanctis Kristen M. Rogers Paul M. Smith Christopher Deal JENNER & BLOCK LLP 1099 New York Ave, N.W., Suite 900 Washington, D.C. 20001 jamunson@jenner.com mdesanctis@jenner.com krogers@jenner.com psmith@jenner.com cdeal@jenner.com Stephen Hogge STEPHEN HOGGE, ESQ., LLC 117 South Gadsden Street Tallahassee, FL 32301 Stephen@stephenhoggeesq.com J. Gerald Hebert J. GERALD HEBERT, P.C. 191 Somervelle Street, Unit 405 Alexandria, VA 22304 Hebert@votelaw.com Charles G. Burr BURR & SMITH, LLP Grand Central Place 442 W. Kennedy Blvd., Suite 300 Tampa, FL 33606 cburr@burrandsmithlaw.com Allison J. Riggs Anita S. Earls SOUTHERN COALITION FOR SOCIAL JUSTICE 1415 W. Highway 54, Suite 101 Durham, NC 27707 Allison@southerncoalition.org anita@southerncoalition.org Timothy D. Osterhaus, Deputy Solicitor General Blaine Winship, General Counsel OFFICE OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL The Capitol, PL-01 Tallahassee, FL 32399 Timothy.osterhaus@myfloridalegal.com Blaine.winship@myfloridalegal.com Victor L. Goode Dorcas R. Gilmore NAACP 4805 Mt. Hope Drive Baltimore, MD 21215-3297 vgoode@naacpnet.org dgilmore@naacpnet.org Gerald E. Greenberg Adam M. Schachter GELBER SCHACHTER & GREENBERG, P.A. 1441 Brickell Avenue, Suite 1420 Miami, FL 33131 Primary Emails: ggreenberg@gsgpa.com, aschachter@gsgpa.com Secondary Email: dgonzalez@gsgpa.com 15 Harry O. Thomas Christopher B. Lunny RADLEY THOMAS YON & CLARK, P.A. 301 S. Bronough Street, Suite 200 Tallahassee, FL 32301-1722 Primary Email: hthomas@radeylaw.com Secondary Email: jday@radeylaw.com Primary Email: clunny@radeylaw.com Secondary Email: cdemeo@radeylaw.com Jon L. Mills (Miami Office) Karen C. Dyer (Orlando Office Elan M. Nehleber (Orlando Office_ BOIES, SCHILLER & FLEXNER, LLP 100 SE 2nd Street, Ste. 2800 Miami, FL 11313-2144 121 S Orange Avenue, Suite 840 Orlando, 32801-3233 Primary Emails: jmills@bsfllp.com enehleber@bsfllp.com ecruz@bsfllp.com Raoul G. Cantero Jason N. Zakia Jesse L. Green WHITE & CASE, LLP Southeast Financial Center, Ste. 4900 200 South Biscayne Boulevard Miami, FL 33131 Primary Emails: rcantero@whitecase.com jzakia@whitecase.com jgreen@whitecase.com Ashley Davis Assistant General Counsel Florida Department of State R.A. Gray Building 500 S. Bronough Street Tallahassee, FL 32399 Telephone: (850) 245-6536 Cell: (850) 294-8018 Ashley.davis@dos.myflorida.com D. Kent Safriet Thomas R. Philpot Hopping, Green & Sams, P.A. P.O. Box 6526 Tallahassee, FL 32314 Telephone: (850) 222-7500 Facsimile: (850) 224-8551 kents@hgslaw.com dhealy@davidhealylaw.com 16 EXHIBIT A EXHIBIT B EXHIBIT C IN THE CIRCUIT COURT OF THE SECOND JUDICIAL CIRCUIT, IN AND FOR LEON COUNTY, FLORIDA RENE ROMO, an individual; BENJAMIN WEAVER, an individual; WILLIAM EVERETT WARINNER, an individual; JESSICA BARRETT, an individual; JUNE KEENER, an individual; RICHARD QUINN BOYLAN, an individual; and BONITA AGAN, an individual, CASE NO. 2012-CA-00412 Plaintiffs, v. KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of State, and PAM BONDI, in her official capacity as Attorney General of the State of Florida, Defendants. THE LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF FLORIDA, et al. CASE NO. 2012-CA-00490 Plaintiffs, v. KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of State; THE FLORIDA SENATE; MICHAEL HARIDOPOLOS, in his official capacity as President of the Florida Senate; THE FLORIDA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES; and DEAN CANNON, in his official capacity as Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, Defendants. APPENDIX TO ROMO PLAINTIFFS’ MOTION FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT AND INJUNCTIVE RELIEF: ROMO PLAINTIFFS’ PROPOSED CONGRESSIONAL MAP 72972-0003/LEGAL23201604.1 INDEX TO APPENDIX TAB A: Romo Plaintiffs’ Proposed Congressional Map (Statewide and Regional) TAB B: Description of Software, Data, and Criteria Used to Create Romo Map TAB C: Compactness Scores for Romo Map TAB D: Population by District for Romo Map TAB E Report on County Boundaries for Romo Map TAB F Report on Boundaries of Voting Tabulation Districts for Romo Map TAB G Report on Constituents From Prior Districts in Romo Plan -272972-0003/LEGAL23201604.1 TAB A 72972-0003/LEGAL23201604.1 Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map Escambia Holmes Jackson Santa Rosa 01 Walton Washington Leon Calhoun Jefferson Hamilton Madison Baker 02 Bay Liberty Suwannee Wakulla Taylor Gulf Franklin Nassau 04 Gadsden Okaloosa Duval Columbia Union Clay Bradford Lafayette St. Johns 03 06 Gilchrist Alachua Putnam Dixie Flagler Levy Marion Volusia 24 Sumter Citrus 07 27 Hernando Seminole Lake 08 Orange 05 Brevard Pasco 26 Pinellas 10 11 Osceola Polk Hillsborough 09 Indian River 12 Manatee Hardee Highlands 15 Okeechobee St. Lucie DeSoto Sarasota Martin Glades Charlotte 13 16 Palm Beach Lee Hendry 23 14 19 22 Broward Collier 21 17 20 18 Miami-Dade 25 Monroe § ¦ ¨ £ ¤ 112 £ ¤ 3 31 113 90 295 I110 ¦ ¨ ¤§ £ ¤ £ Escambia 29 £ ¤ £¤ £ £ ¤ ¤ I65 21 113 £ ¤ £ ¤ 98 Santa Rosa 3 £ ¤ 98 £ ¤ 29 £ ¤ 01 20 £ ¤ Okaloosa 4 £ ¤ £ ¤ 189 393 98 £ ¤ 331 £ ¤ 10a £ ¤ Walton £ ¤ £ ¤ 98 § ¦ ¨ I10 331 £ ¤ 98 £ ¤ Bay £ ¤ 22 98 20 02 231 90 231 £ ¤ £ ¤ § ¦ ¨ U231 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 277 £ ¤ Washington Holmes Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map Gulf Calhoun 166 £ ¤ Jackson 84 Liberty Gadsden Franklin 90 £ ¤ 363 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ Taylor 27 £ ¤ Dixie 90 £ ¤ £ ¤ 129 Hamilton 129 £ ¤ 84 £ ¤ 06 129 £ ¤ Suwannee Lafayette £ ¤ 19 31 38 £ ¤ £ ¤ Madison 02 Jefferson 84 221 £ ¤ 19 Levy 129 £ ¤ £ ¤ 27 45 I75 § ¦ ¨ 41 £ ¤ 24 441 £ ¤ Alachua Union 90 20 27 301 £ ¤ £ ¤ Marion 301 £ ¤ £ ¤ 301 £ ¤ Bradford 03 I10 Baker ¦ ¨ £ ¤ § £ ¤ Citrus £ ¤ £ ¤ 41 £ ¤ 41 £ ¤ Columbia Gilchrist £ ¤ 41 441 £ ¤ 1 301 200 I295 27 Putnam 21 04 25 £ ¤ 17 20 07 Lake 17 £ ¤ £ ¤ 19 £ ¤ 1 A S115 U1 A 40 £ ¤ I95 § ¦ ¨ 100 11 I4 ¦ ¨ £ ¤ § 5 £ ¤ £ ¤ Volusia 24 Flagler St. Johns 90 S9 A S9 A £ ¤ § ¦ ¨ ¦ ¨ £ ¤ Duval § ¤ § ¦£ ¨ ¤ § ¦ £ ¨ § ¦ ¨ Clay 301 Nassau £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map evy £ ¤ 06 24 £ ¤ 19 £ ¤ Pinellas 09 19 £ ¤ Gilchrist 129 41 £ ¤ 11 I275 § ¦ ¨ 54 £ ¤ 11 Pasco 05 Hernando 98 £ ¤ Citrus 41 £ ¤ 301 98 301 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 98 301 471 £ ¤ £ ¤ S91 17 192 27 17 £ ¤ U27 § ¦ ¨ § ¦ ¨ 20 544 530 08 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 19 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤£ ¤ Polk Lake £ ¤ 50 20 £ ¤ Putnam 12 441 £ ¤ Marion Sumter 27 Hillsborough 50 I75 27 40 301 £ ¤£ ¤ 441 £ ¤ £ ¤ 03 £ ¤§ ¦£ ¨ ¤ £ ¤ 27 Alachua Bradford 04 Clay 192 £ ¤ 92 426 436 I4 26 Osceola 417 S417 441 192 S528 § ¦ ¨ £ ¤ £ ¤ 50 £ ¤ 24 5 £ ¤ Volusia 100 £ ¤ Seminole 07 472 11 £ ¤ § ¦ ¨ £ ¤ £ ¤ § ¦ ¨ £ ¤£ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ Orange 423 40 £ ¤ Flagler 1 £ ¤ St. Johns I95 405 £ ¤ § ¦ ¨ 1 £ ¤ 15 192 1 £ ¤ £ ¤ 500 £ ¤ Brevard Dixie Pinellas 595 I275 687 19 £ ¤ £ ¤ 98 569 £ ¤ I175 § ¦ ¨ 92 93 £ ¤ 92 40 301 301 579 £ ¤ Manatee 98 09 98 98 471 27 546 441 £ ¤ 50 540 92 £ ¤ 700 Lake I4 § ¦ ¨ 17 530 192 92 426 436 700 17 17 98 U27 27 544 27 417 S417 § ¦ ¨ S91 § ¦ ¨ 1 441 60 405 1 500 16 Indian River 15 § ¦ ¨ I95 1 £ ¤ £ ¤ Brevard 192 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 1 £ ¤ Okeechobee Osceola £ ¤ S528 192 50 £ ¤ 24 26 Seminole 07 472 40 £ ¤ 100 £ ¤ Volusia £ ¤ £ ¤ 11 £ ¤ § ¦ ¨ £ ¤£ ¤ £ 08 ¤ £ ¤ Orange 423 17 £ ¤ Flagler 20 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 192 Putnam ¤ £ £ £ ¤ ¤ ¤ £ ¤ Polk £ ¤ ¤£ £ ¤ £ § ¦ ¨ £ ¤ £ ¤ 12 £ ¤ £ ¤ Highlands Hardee £ ¤ Sumter 27 £ ¤ £ ¤§ ¦£ ¨ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 301 06 Marion £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 50 I75 44 £ ¤ 27 £ ¤ 03 Alachua Hillsborough 54 £ ¤ Pasco 05 Hernando 98 £ ¤ Citrus 41 £ ¤ ¦£ ¨ ¤ 11 £ ¤§ 10 £ ¤ 19 £ ¤ Levy £ ¤ 129 £ ¤ Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map 5 1 £ ¤ £ ¤ 595 £ ¤ 688 19 £ ¤ £ ¤ 595 £ ¤ 10 Pinellas 574 £ ¤ 19 £ ¤ 19 92 686 92 £ ¤ ¤ £ ¤ £ £ ¤ Pasco I275 § ¦ ¨ 93 19 £ ¤ £ ¤ 92 £ ¤ 54 £ ¤ 41 £ ¤ 41 582 £ ¤ 92 60 600 685 11 45 60 Manatee I75 § ¦ ¨ 301 579 £ ¤ £ ¤ Hillsborough 569 600 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ £ ¤ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤£ ¤ 05 £ ¤ 92 301 £ ¤ Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map 09 98 I4 § ¦ ¨ £ ¤ 98 £ ¤ 12 700 £ ¤ Polk 517 Hardee 700 £ ¤ 546 92 700 £ ¤£ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 27 Sumter I275 § ¦ ¨ 10 19 41 301 301 41 681 £ ¤ Sarasota £ ¤ 301 11 13 09 Hillsborough ¤ £ ¤ £ £ ¤ Manatee £ ¤ £ ¤ Pinellas 17 £ ¤ Lee 84 £ ¤ 14 78 £ ¤ DeSoto Charlotte 45 £ ¤ 12 98 Hardee 98 £ ¤ £ ¤ I75 98 £ ¤ 75 41 £ ¤ 21 16 80 £ ¤ U27 § ¦ ¨ Glades £ ¤ Highlands 27 £ ¤ § ¦ Collier ¨ 80 £ ¤ 17 27 27 £ ¤ Polk £ ¤ £ ¤ Hendry 15 60 441 £ ¤ £ ¤ 98 £ ¤ 717 £ ¤ 15 Martin 1 23 27 I595 91 441 S826 7 ¤ 820 5 £ ¤ § ¦£ ¨ ¤£ ¤ 20 £ ¤ 869 ¤ § ¦ £ ¨ 17 § ¦ ¨ 18 £ Broward 1 19 22 804 882 1 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ I95 § ¦ £ ¨ ¤ S869 Palm Beach 98 £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ 1 St. Lucie S91 5 £ ¤ ¤ § ¦ £ ¨ £ ¤ Indian River Miami-Dade Okeechobee Osceola 26 Brevard Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map 21 Collier 16 Hendry Glades £ ¤ 80 717 £ ¤ £ ¤ 715 729 £ ¤ 27 £ ¤ § ¦ ¨ U27 15 £ ¤ 23 98 £ ¤ Broward Palm Beach § ¦ ¨ S869 16 Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map 806 £ ¤ 441 804 £ ¤ £ ¤ 441 £ ¤ 882 834 £ ¤ 19 S91 § ¦ ¨ £ ¤ 869 £ ¤ 809 £ ¤ 704 £ ¤ 810 £ ¤ 22 £ ¤ 5 1 £ ¤ I95 § ¦ ¨ 1 £ ¤ Monroe Collier Broward § ¦ ¨ I75 21 25 23 £ ¤ 41 Miami-Dade U27 § ¦ ¨ 27 £ ¤ 973 £ ¤ S874 1 817 S91 § ¦ ¨ 19 I95 17 I395 441 91 I195 84 S836 25 41 18 7 41 £ ¤ £ § ¤ ¨ ¦ § ¦£ ¨ § ¦ ¨ £ ¤ ¤ S826 § ¦ ¨ § ¦ ¨ S821 I595 441 1 1 820 5 § ¦ £ ¤ ¨ £ ¤ ¤ § ¦£ ¨ ¤£ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ £ ¤ S869 19 § ¦ ¨ § ¦£ ¨ ¤ 985 £ ¤ 985 £ ¤ S93 § ¦ ¨ Proposed 2012 Florida Congressional Districts Romo Map 20 22 TAB B 72972-0003/LEGAL23201604.1 Description of Data, Software, and Criteria Used in Creating Romo Plan Redistricting Software The proposed Romo Congressional Plan was created with Maptitude for Redistricting, Version 6.0. Maptitude for redistricting is a special version of Maptitude that includes tools for creating, analyzing, and mapping congressional, state legislative, city council, county commission, school, water, or any other type of districts. The software was developed by Caliper Corporation, founded in 1983 and headquartered in Newton, Massachusetts. The company is a worldwide technology leader in the development of geographic information systems (GIS), Transportation Planning Software, and Traffic Simulation Software. Caliper mapping and GIS software is used by organizations around the world including national governments, government agencies of all types, major corporations, and numerous institutions of higher learning. Maptitude for Redistricting is used by the Department of Justice and the majority of state legislatures. The software incorporates geography and data from the most recent census. Data Used x 2010 Census Redistricting Population Data from the U.S. Census Bureau x 2010 TIGER Census Geography from the U.S. Census Bureau x Florida State and Federal General Election Results from 2006, 2008, and 2010 from data supplied by the Florida Division of Elections Criteria Followed The Romo Congressional Plan was created by following the criteria in the Florida Constitution, including Article III, Section 20, as well as the criteria in federal law, including Article I and the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the Voting Rights Act. TAB C 72972-0003/LEGAL23201604.1 " ! " #" "$ " " $ % & $ % & $ " " "$ " " " " " "& "$ "$ " " "$ " " "& " " "$ " " " " "% " " TAB D 72972-0003/LEGAL23201604.1 "# !! $%$& ' $%$$%$& ' , (' ) (*+' , ' TAB E 72972-0003/LEGAL23201604.1 ! 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"#! !"$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"#$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"#&$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"#$$%&% '(() ! "#! !"*$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"($$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"'$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !""$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"&$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"+$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"%$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !"""$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !""$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !""#$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !""*$$%&% '(*) ! "#! !""($$%&% '(() ! "#! !""'$$%&% '(*) ! "#! ! "#! !""+$$%&% '(() ! "#! !""%$$%&% '(*) ! "#! EXHIBIT D EXHIBIT E IN THE CIRCUIT COURT OF THE SECOND JUDICIAL CIRCUIT, IN AND FOR LEON COUNTY, FLORIDA RENE ROMO, an individual; BENJAMIN WEAVER, an individual; WILLIAM EVERETT WARINNER, an individual; JESSICA BARRETT, an individual; JUNE KEENER, an individual; RICHARD QUINN BOYLAN, an individual; and BONITA AGAN, an individual, CASE NO. 2012-CA-00412 Plaintiffs, v. KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of State, and PAM BONDI, in her official capacity as Attorney General of the State of Florida, Defendants. THE LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF FLORIDA, et al. CASE NO. 2012-CA-00490 Plaintiffs, v. KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of State; THE FLORIDA SENATE; MICHAEL HARIDOPOLOS, in his official capacity as President of the Florida Senate; THE FLORIDA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES; and DEAN CANNON, in his official capacity as Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, Defendants. EXPERT AFFIDAVIT OF STEPHEN ANSOLABEHERE 1 EXPERT AFFIDAVIT OF STEPHEN ANSOLABEHERE I. Background and Qualifications 1. I am a professor of Government in the Department of Government at Harvard University in Cambridge, MA. Formerly, I was an Assistant Professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, and I was Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where I held the Elting R. Morison Chair and served as Associate Head of the Department of Political Science. At UCLA and MIT, I taught PhD level courses on applied Statistics in the Social Sciences. I directed the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project from its inception in 2000 through 2004, am the Principal Investigator of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a survey research consortium of over 250 faculty and student researchers at more than 50 universities, and serve on the Board of Overseers of the American National Election Study. I am a consultant to CBS News’ Election Night Decision Desk. I am a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (inducted in 2007). 2. I have worked as a consultant to the Brennan Center in the case McConnell v. FEC, 540 US 93 (2003). I have testified before the U. S. Senate Committee on Rules, the U. S. Senate Committee on Commerce, the U. S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, the U. S. House Committee on House Administration, and the Congressional Black Caucus on matters of election administration in the United States. I filed an amicus brief with Professors Nathaniel Persily and Charles Stewart on behalf of neither party to the U. S. Supreme Court in the case of Northwest Austin Municipal Utility District Number One v. Holder, 557 US (2009). I am consultant for the 2 Rodriguez plaintiffs in Perez v. Perry, currently before the District Court in the Western District of Texas, and in United States v. State of Texas, currently before the District Court in the District of Columbia; I consulted for the Guy plaintiffs in Guy v. Miller in Nevada state court. 3. My areas of expertise include American electoral politics and public opinion, as well as statistical methods in social sciences. I am author of numerous scholarly works on voting behavior and elections, with particular focus on the application of statistical methods. This scholarship includes articles in such academic journals as the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, the American Political Science Review, the American Economic Review, the American Journal of Political Science, Legislative Studies Quarterly, the Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Electoral Studies, and Political Analysis. I have published articles on issues of election law in the Harvard Law Review, Texas Law Review, Columbia Law Review, New York University Annual Survey of Law, and the Election Law Journal, for which I am a member of the editorial board. I have coauthored three scholarly books on electoral politics in the United States, The End of Inequality: Baker v. Carr and the Transformation of American Politics, Going Negative: How Political Advertising Shrinks and Polarizes the Electorate, and The Media Game: American Politics in the Media Age. I am coauthor with Ted Lowi, Ben Ginsberg, and Ken Shepsle of American Government: Power and Purpose, a college textbook on American government. My curriculum vita with publications list is attached to this report. 3 4. I have been hired by the Romo Plaintiffs to analyze the Florida Congressional plans with respect to partisanship, incumbency, race, compactness, and respect for political subdivision boundaries. I am retained for a rate of $400 per hour, which is my standard consulting rate. II. Sources of Information 5. I consulted the following sources in addressing the factual issues discussed below. I used MyDistrictBuilder and relevant Block Assignment, Shape Files, and Data files available through the Florida Senate Redistricting Website. The weblink to the Current 2002 Florida Congressional District Map is http://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Redistricting/Plan/fl2002_con. The weblink to the Enacted 2012 Florida Congressional District Map (C9047) is http://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Redistricting/Plan/h000c9047. I consulted statistical reports available from the Florida Senate Redistricting Website and the Florida House redistricting website: http://www.myfloridahouse.gov/Sections/Redistricting/Redistricting2012.aspx.) Election results and voter registration data and maps are available at: http://mydistrictbuilder.wordpress.com/opendata/.. The “Redistricting Plan Data Report” for each plan provides information on the number of municipal boundaries and county lines crossed by each district. The file “Census and ACS Summary Statistics” provides information on the total populations and population deviations of each district in each plan and on the racial composition of the districts. 4 The firm NCEC provided me with necessary files corresponding to the districts defined in the Romo Map discussed throughout this report. Statistics on aggregate voter registration in Florida are available at: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voter-registration/statistics/elections.shtml#2000 Finally, I consulted data from the National Exit polls for 2008 and 2010 for the state of Florida. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#FLP00p1, and http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=FLG00p1. These data are also available through the Roper Center (http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.T2zYxo4ZD XU). 5 IV. FINDINGS Overview 6. The Florida Constitution establishes several criteria across which to evaluate any Congressional District map. These are (1) representation of minority groups, (2) not intentionally favoring or disfavoring a party in any district, (3) not intentionally favoring or disfavoring an incumbent in any district, (4) geographic compactness, and (5) respect for county, municipal and other political boundaries. 7. This report assesses the 2002 Florida Congressional Map (Current Map), the 2012 Enacted Florida Congressional Map (Enacted Map), and the Proposed Romo Florida Congressional Map (Romo Map) along all five dimensions. 8. I find that the Enacted Map worsens geographic compactness in at least two Congressional Districts (CDs). It has one extremely non-compact district (CD 5) that cuts 8 county lines, 6 city lines, and 85 Voting Tabulation District lines. The Romo Map has fewer districts that are highly non-compact than in the in Enacted Map, and the CDs that are not compact in this plan are also not compact in the Enacted Map. 9. In terms of party, I find that the Current Map and the Enacted Map favor Republicans and disfavor Democrats. I analyze two very close recent elections in Florida – the 2008 Presidential race and the 2010 Governor race. Under the Current Map and the Enacted, the Republican candidate received pluralities of the votes in over 60 percent of the districts. Using the 2008 Presidential vote as a measure, the Democrat won 51 percent of 6 the vote but the Republican won pluralities in 17 of 27 CDs and the Democrat won pluralities in 10 CDs under the Enacted Map. The Romo Map treats the parties fairly. Republicans won the plurality of the 2008 Presidential vote in 14 CDs and Democrats won the plurality in 13 CDs under the Romo Map. Geographic dispersion of population cannot account for the biases in the Current Map or the Enacted Map, as the Romo Map avoids highly non-compact CDs and would produce a configuration of districts that fairly divides districts between parties on the basis of statewide votes. 10. In terms of racial representation, I find that neither the Enacted Map nor the Romo Map reduces the number of districts in which Blacks are a majority of the Voting Age Population. The Romo Map increases by nearly 400,000 persons the number of Blacks who would reside in districts in which they could elect their preferred candidates. 11. As part of my assessment of racial representation, I provide a functional analysis based on voting behavior of racial groups statewide. I find that Blacks vote cohesively in the State of Florida, but Hispanics show little or no cohesion. I also find low levels of cohesion among Whites statewide. 12. In terms of incumbency, the Romo Map, on average, makes more substantial changes in the composition of districts that the Enacted Map did. The average Percent of Population from the Core District is 70 percent in the Enacted Map and 65 percent in the Romo Map. 7 13. The Romo Map demonstrates that across the board improvements on every dimension are possible and available. Comparison of that Map with the Current Map and the Enacted Map highlights three areas where further reconfiguration of districts may be required -- particularly around Jacksonville Area, the Orlando Area, and in the TampaSaint Petersburg Area. Political Geography 14. Compactness is an instructive starting point to see how district boundaries divide the geography of the state, and how current districts correspond to those in the Enacted Map. A. Comparison of the Enacted Map and the Current Map 15. Table 1 presents a correspondence between the current districts and the enacted districts. Each enacted district is listed next to the current district from which it derives the highest share of its population. 16. The most widely used compactness score in districting is the Reock measure. This measure compares the area of the actual district to the area of the smallest circle that encompasses that district (also known as the smallest bounding circle). The idea behind the score is that a circle is the most compact shape possible, and the most compact possible district would itself be a circle. The score is the percent of the area of the inscribed circle that is accounted for by the area of the district. It is not possible to draw a legal map that consists solely of circles, but other compact shapes, such as hexagons, could fill the entire area of a state. The area of these other highly compact shapes would 8 be quite close to the inscribing circle. Highly elongated districts, for instance, would have relatively small areas compared with the smallest circle that inscribes them. The Figures in Table 1 were derived from the Maptitude redistricting software. 17. There is no firm guideline for what is “compact,” but rules of thumb have emerged. First, a perfectly square district would have a Reock score of .6366 (area of square inside area of circle). Second, districts with very low Reock scores, below 0.2 or 0.1, are widely viewed as not compact. 18. Because Reock is a ratio of the district’s area to an inscribing area, an average Reock score for an entire plan is difficult to interpret. The sum of the denominators (areas in the inscribing circles) do not necessarily correspond to the area of the entire state. The same problem arises with many other measures. Consequently, the Reock measure is more readily interpreted as a description of characteristics of specific districts. It indicates where compactness has increased or decreased, and it is useful for flagging problem districts. 19. Table 1 presents the Reock measures for the Current Map and the Enacted Map. 20. Under the Current Map there are 6 CDs with Reock values of .2 or less. These are CDs 3, 4, 8, 18, 21, and 22. I consider these to be highly non-compact districts. 9 21. Under the Enacted Map, CDs 5, 22, and 26 have Reock values below .2. In two of these CDs, the Enacted Map worsened the compactness noticeably. These are new CDs 5 and 26 under the Enacted Map. In addition, CD 22 was highly non-compact under the Current Map, and remains so in the Enacted Map. 22. Under the Current Map, CD 3 was one of the least compact districts, with a Reock score of .14. The district does not abut a state border or coast. Under the Enacted Map, CD 3 is renumbered CD 5. New CD 5 draws 80% of its population from old CD 3. The Reock score of new CD 5 is .09. Since Reock is a ratio, this represents a substantial decrease in compactness: a drop of .05, from .14 to .09 in this case, is a 36% decrease in compactness. CD 5 is the least compact district in terms of the Reock measure in all three of the maps considered here. 23. New CD 5 under the Enacted Map connects Jacksonville to Orlando, 143 miles to the South. Along the way new CD 5 cuts 8 counties’ boundaries, the most of any district in the Enacted Map. The districts with the next highest number of county crossings are new CDs 3, 17, and 25, with 4 each. New CD 5 crosses 6 cities’ boundaries, the third most of any district in the Enacted Map. It trisects the city of Orlando and halves Jacksonville, Gainesville, Sanford, Apopka, and Orange Park. 24. New CD 5 also has by far the most cuts (85) of Voting Tabulation Districts (VTDs). The VTD splits created by the boundaries of CD 5 also create a large number of VTD splits in CD 4 (in Jacksonville) and CD 10 (in Orlando) – the districts with the next 10 highest number of splits in VTDs (of 42 and 34, respectively). The large number of cuts in Voting Tabulation Districts (VTDs) is of concern, because VTDs correspond to precincts. The very large number of split VTDs in CD 5 will require county officials to redraw many precincts is the map, and by a wide margin. 25. The shape of new CD 5 also affects the geography of surrounding districts, particularly CDs 4, 7, and 10. New CD 4 forms a box around the northern end new CD 5 in Baker, Duval, and Nassau Counties, but new CD5 forms a jagged cut in the middle of the Duval area, capturing part of the City of Jacksonville. New CD 5 snakes southward cutting several counties and municipalities. In Seminole County it takes a chunk out of the center of new CD 7, which would otherwise be a nicely compact district. CD 5 extends an arm into CD 7 and captures part of the City of Sanford, cutting county lines. New CD 5 cuts into the center of Orlando nearly severing the eastern part of CD 10 from the rest of this district, which represents Orlando and areas west of the city. As discussed below, its construction also converts old CD 8 (new CD 10) from one in which Democrats won a majority of votes to one in which Republicans win a majority of votes, and prevents the creation of another district in the Orlando area in which Blacks have the opportunity to elect their preferred candidates. 26. New CD 26 draws 59% of its population from old CD 25. It became less compact because new CD 26 now includes the Florida Keys, whose natural features make the district less compact. 11 27. CD 22 – which corresponds roughly to the same district in both maps – had a low compactness score under the Current Map, and the 2012 model did not have a more compact shape. CD 22 under the Enacted Map is a long narrow district stretching from Palm Beach southward to Fort Lauderdale. New CD 22 draws 57% of its population from old CD 22. It has a Reock score of .18. Most of the non-compactness arises from the fact that the district runs along the shore, but some of the non-compactness also occurs because of the boundaries of CD 20. New CD 20 intrudes from the north into CD 22 and captures parts of Lantana and Hypoluxo. CD 20 also intrudes from the south into CD 22 and captures parts of Pompano Beach. 28. New CDs 13 and 14 also violate political and spatial geography in significant ways. New CD 13 represents most of Pinellas County, and New CD 14 represents most of the City of Tampa. However, new CD 14 jumps across the Tampa Bay and splits the City of Saint Petersburg in half. The southern part of Saint Petersburg becomes part of new CD 14 and the rest of Saint Petersburg is assigned to new CD 13. B. Comparison of the Romo Map and the Current Map 29. The Romo Map offers an alternative to configuration to the Enacted Map. Table 2 shows the correspondence between the districts proposed under the Romo Map and the Current Map. The Table also displays the Reock scores for the proposed districts under the Romo Map. The Figures in Table 2 were derived from the Maptitude redistricting software. 12 30. The Romo Map begins by splitting in half the most overpopulated district in the Current Map, current CD 22, to create one of two new CDs in the state—Proposed CD 27. The Romo Map then splits another highly overpopulated district, current CD 8, to create the core of a second new district, proposed CD 26. Old CD 7 is also highly over populated, and it and old CD 6 are used in reconstructing CDs 3 and 6. 31. Under the Romo Map, there are 2 CDs with Reock scores of .2 or less, compared with 6 in the Current Map and 3 in the Enacted Map. Under the Romo Map, the districts with very low compactness scores are proposed CDs 22 and 25. Proposed CD 22 corresponds to old CD 22 and, like the original district, is a long stretch along the coast. Proposed CD 25 corresponds to CD 25 in the Current Map, and, as in the Enacted Map, becomes much less compact because of the Keys. The Romo map makes noticeable improvements on the Enacted Map in the Jacksonville area, the Orlando area, and the Tampa-Saint Petersburg area. 32. The Romo Map takes a new approach to the Jacksonville area. It reconfigures old CD 3 and creates a much more compact district in North Florida to represent Blacks in the Jacksonville and Gainesville areas. Proposed CD 3 in the Romo Map creates a new district largely out of old CDs 3 and 6. Proposed CD 3 has a Reock score of .27 – it is twice as compact as old CD 3 and three times as compact as new CD 5 in the Enacted Map. Also, old CD 4 in the Current Map has a Reock score of .18, and the Romo Map improves that to .35. 13 33. The separation of CD 3 from Central Florida, allows for improvements in the Orlando area. The Romo Map creates proposed CDs 7, 8, and 26 in Orlando, and they have Reock scores of .35, .45, and .50, respectively. These CDs are a noticeable improvement in compactness over current CDs 7, 8, and 24, which have Reock scores of .22, .20, and .54. 34. In the Tampa-Saint Petersburg area, the Romo Map places CD 11 entirely inside Hillsborough County, and it places Saint Petersburg entirely inside CD 10. It reduces cuts in county and municipal boundaries without reducing the ability of Blacks in current CD 11 to elect their preferred candidates. 35. The Romo Map increases substantially the compactness of CD 18 from .10 to .43. 36. The Romo Map also reduces the number of county line cuts created by CDs. Under the Enacted Map, 46 counties are left whole, but there are a total of 61 county boundary crossings, because some counties cross multiple boundaries. Under the Romo Map, 44 counties are left whole, but there are a total of 57 county boundary crossings. The Romo Plan also creates fewer split VTDs, requiring less re-precincting. Under the Enacted Map, 352 VTDs are split, compared with 202 split VTDs in the Romo Map. 37. In sum, geographic coherence is one important dimension by which to judge district plans under Florida’s Constitution. The Enacted Plan improves on the Current Map on average, but it worsens some districts; in particular the compactness of old CD 3 becomes 14 36% worse. The Romo Map offers an alternative approach, by minimizing the number of highly non-compact districts while achieving more modest improvements in the more compact current districts. As a result, the Romo Map achieves a reduction in the number of highly non-compact districts in the Current Map from 6 to 2, and it does not render any already non-compact districts substantially worse. Party 38. The Florida Constitution states that three factors are of primary importance in evaluating a plan: party, race and ethnicity, and incumbency. The remainder of this report focuses on these three factors, with particular emphasis on party and race. 39. Intent to favor or disfavor a party in drawing a district is a first-tier consideration. Systematic patterns in voting data can be indicative of intentions (as is the case with determinations under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act; see Thornburg v. Gingles, 478 U. S. 30 (1986)) and require closer investigation. I present here information on the aggregate effects of the plans on election outcomes, as I find that the Current and Enacted Maps contain substantial, plan-wide advantages for the Republicans. 40. I began my analysis of partisanship by examining party registration data provided by the Office of the Florida Secretary of State. In 2000, there were 8,880,396 registered voters in the State of Florida. Of these, 7,327,962 registered as either a Republican or a Democrat, and 3,853,524 were Democrats, and 3,474,438 were Republicans. Based on these data, there were 379,086 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the State 15 Florida in 2000. Also, Democratic registration comprised 52.6% of the two-party registration (i.e., all persons who registered as either a Republican or a Democrat). 41. As of February 1, 2012, there were 12,264,831 registered voters in the State of Florida. Of these, 9,325,398 (76% of all registrants) registered as either a Republican or a Democrat. There were 4,952,688 registered Democrats, and 4,372,710 registered Republicans. Based on these data, there are 579,978 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the State Florida as of February 1, 2012. Also, Democratic registration comprised 53.1% of the two-party registration (i.e., all persons who registered as either a Republican or a Democrat). 42. The registered voters in the State of Florida are somewhat more Democratic than Republican in their party preferences. Over the past decade, Democratic registration has not fallen. 43. Registration is one form of electoral choice; recent elections provide a similar picture of how Floridians vote. Two recent close statewide elections are ideal for evaluating the partisan orientation of districting plans in the State of Florida. According to election reports publicly available from the Florida Secretary of State, in the 2008 Presidential race, Democrat Barack Obama received 51.4% of all votes cast for the Democrat or Republican, and John McCain received 48.6% of all votes cast for the Democrat or Republican. In the 2010 Governor race, Republican Rick Scott won 50.6% of the votes cast for Democrat or Republican, and Democrat Alex Sink received 49.4%. 16 44. These two elections, because they were so close, provide a good baseline against which to assess the extent to which the lines drawn favor one party over another. In a nearly tied election, we expect the parties to win nearly equal shares of seats if the maps were drawn in a way so as to not favor one party over another. 45. In the Current Map, John McCain won a plurality of votes for President in 2008 in 15 of 25 CDs and Barack Obama won a plurality of votes in 10 of 25 CDs. In other words, the existing map has a built in advantage for the Republicans. Even when the Democratic candidate won a majority of votes statewide (in this case Obama), that vote only translated into majorities of 40% of U. S. House seats. 46. In the Enacted Map, John McCain won a plurality of votes for President in 2008 in 17 of 27 CDs and Barack Obama won a plurality of votes in 10 of 27 CDs. 47. In the Romo Map, John McCain won a plurality of votes for President in 2008 in 14 of 27 CDs and Barack Obama won a plurality of votes in 13 of 27 CDs. Under this map, in an election when the votes are split 50-50, the seats are also split approximately 50-50. Neither party wins a large majority of seats when it does not win a majority of votes. 48. In the Current Map, Rick Scott won a plurality of votes for Governor in 2010 statewide and in 17 of 25 CDs. Alex Sink won 49% of votes, but only won a plurality of votes in 8 of 25 CDs. 17 49. In the Enacted Map, Rick Scott won a plurality of votes for Governor in 2010 in 17 of 27 CDs and Alex Sink won a plurality of votes in 10 of 27 CDs. Under the Enacted Map, Sink won a plurality in only 37% of CDs. 50. In the Romo Map, Rick Scott would win a plurality of votes for Governor in 2010 in 15 of 27 CDs, and Alex Sink would won a plurality in 12 of 27 CDs. Scott won a plurality of votes statewide (by less than 1 percent) and wins a majority of seats. 51. The Republican Party’s advantage in the Enacted Map reflects biases throughout the Current Map, but it also results from changes in particular districts. A specific instance where the redrawing of district boundaries converts a Democratic district to a Republican district occurs in new CD 10 under the Enacted Map. In current CD 8 under the Current Map, Obama won 52.1 and McCain won 47.2% of the votes in 2008 and Sink won 48.1 and Scott won 48.1% of the vote in 2010. New CD 10 draws 59% of its population from old CD 8. Obama would win 47.2% and McCain would win 52.0% of the vote for President in 2008 under the new lines in the Enacted Map. Sink would win 43.8% and Scott would win 52.3% of the vote for Governor in 2010. The difference is a 4 to 5 point swing in the vote in the Republican direction. The swing is enough to change the district to one that was either tied or slightly favoring the Democrats to one that clearly favors the Republicans. 18 52. It is worth noting that the boundaries of CD 10 under the Enacted Map are affected by the reconfiguration of new CD 5 in the Orlando area. Racial Representation 53. Florida’s constitution protects against reductions in the representation of Blacks. 54. I focus on Blacks as opposed to Hispanics because, as discussed in Section B below, Blacks statewide express a clear and distinct political preference in elections statewide, but Hispanics do not. Thus, creation of districts in which Blacks have the ability to elect their preferred candidates clearly affects the representation of that minority group. A. Majority Black Districts 55. One, but certainly not the only, criterion for determining how much representation Blacks receive under a given map is a simple count of the number of CDs in which that group is a majority of the Voting Age Population (VAP). VAP is a widely used as a standard because that captures measure the eligible electorate. 56. The Current Map contains two districts in which Blacks are a majority of the Voting Age Population. These are CDs 17 and 23. 19 57. One other district, CD 3, is 49.9% Black Voting Age Population under the Current Map.1 In CD 3, 48.8% of the population are Non-Hispanic Blacks of Voting Age, and 1.1% are Hispanic Blacks of Voting Age. Current CD 3 is under populated by 37,000 persons, so further changes in the district will be required simply to maintain equal populations, and CD 3 is already one of the least compact districts in the Current Map. 58. The Enacted Map creates three districts in which Blacks are a majority of the Voting Age Population. These are new CDs 5, 20, and 24. New CD 5 draws 81% of its population from CD 3 from the Current Map and is 50.06% Black VAP. New CD 20 draws 73% of its population from current CD 23 and is 50.06% Black VAP. New CD 24 takes 80% of its population from current CD 17 and is 54.9% Black VAP. 59. The Enacted Map achieves a third majority Black district by extending the boundaries of old CD 3, making the new CD 5 even less compact. 60. The Romo Map creates two districts in which Blacks are a majority of Voting Age Population. These are CDs 17 and 23. CD 17 is 56.7% Black Voting Age Population, and CD 23 is 51.4% Black Voting Age Population. The Romo Map, then, keeps the same the number of majority Black Voting Age Population districts as in the Current Map. 1 See the report “District Summary Population Report” at http://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Redistricting/Plan/fl2002_con. 20 61. In sum, neither the Romo Map nor the Enacted Map reduces the number of Majority Black VAP CDs. The Enacted Map increases that number by 1, but it does so by making a new CD 5 that is highly non-compact and that extends from North Florida into Central Florida. 62. The racial composition of a district does not necessarily mean that a district can or will likely elect candidates preferred by a minority voters. There may be some majority Black VAP districts that do not function as districts where Blacks in fact elect their preferred candidates, and there may be districts in which Blacks can elect their preferred candidates even though they are not a majority of the Voting Age Population. To address the question of racial representation fully requires a functional analysis of districts. B. Functional Analysis, Part I: Voting Patterns of Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites 63. The starting point for any assessment of the implications of a map for minority representation and voting rights is an analysis of the voting behavior of the various racial groups in a state. Such analysis is used in conjunction with examination of district composition and electoral outcomes to determine (1) where it is appropriate to draw minority districts, (2) whether it is feasible to draw minority districts, (3) what form those districts might take, (4) in which districts minority-preferred candidates win and lose, and (5) whether a given configuration of districts strengthens or weakens minority representation in a given area or statewide. 21 64. Specifically, if there is low or no voting cohesion among Hispanics or Whites, it may be possible to create more districts in which Blacks can elect their preferred candidates than is possible if all Black-opportunity districts are majority Black districts. In a circumstance of relatively high cohesion among Blacks and low cohesion among Whites, it may even be detrimental to Black representation and voting rights to pack them into a small number of majority Black CDs. 65. I undertake such a functional analysis here following the approach outlined by the Supreme Court of the United States indicates in Thornburg v. Gingles and followed in subsequent voting rights cases. The first step of the analysis is to answer three factual questions laid out by the Supreme Court of the United States. (1) Is the population of a given minority group sufficiently numerous in a given area that a district can be created? (2) Do minority groups vote cohesively as a group? (3) Do Whites vote cohesively as a group and against the preferences of the minority voters (so called White Bloc Voting)? These questions are called the three Gingles Preconditions. I focus on the second and third in the analysis in this section. 66. In addition to these questions, reductions or increases in the ability of minorities to elect their preferred candidates also depend on the rate at which others not in that group vote in line with that group and, ultimately, on the incidence with which candidates preferred by that group can win. I consider these matters with respect to specific areas and districts in the next section. 22 67. The Supreme Court in Gingles pointed to two sorts of data analyses that may be performed to addressing these questions. In particular, the Court instructed that exit poll data or ecological regression analysis of the correlations between racial composition of Voting Tabulation Districts and election returns may be used to measure the vote preferences of different racial groups in a state or area. I perform such analyses for the two elections examined in the previous section, the 2008 Presidential Election and the 2010 Governor election. 68. Statewide exit poll results indicate distinct voting patterns for Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites. Exit Polls were conducted in the State of Florida by Edison Mitofsky Research as part of the national exit polls in 2008. The national exit polls conducted in Florida in 2008 and 2010, have a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.2 69. Blacks in Florida vote cohesively. In the 2008 Presidential election, 96% Blacks in the State of Florida voted for Obama and 4% voted for McCain. In the 2010 Florida Governor election, 93% Blacks voted for Sink and 6% voted for Scott. 70. Hispanics statewide show little or no cohesion. In 2008, 57% of Hispanics voted for Obama and 42% voted for McCain. In 2010, 48% of Hispanics voted for Sink and 50% voted for Scott. 2 Summaries of the exit polls by state may be accessed online through any number of outlets, such as CNN http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/) Data files for the exit polls are available through the Roper Center (http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.T2zYxo4ZD XU). 23 71. Whites show low levels of cohesion statewide. In 2008, 42% of Whites voted for Obama and 56%% voted for McCain. In 2010, 41% of Whites voted for Sink and 56% voted for Scott. 72. I performed ecological regression analyses and arrived at nearly identical estimates as arise from the exit polls. Approximately 90 to 95% of Blacks voted for Sink or Obama. Approximately 55% of Hispanics voted for Obama and approximately 49% voted for Sink. Approximately 55 to 60% of Whites voted for McCain or Scott. 73. In sum, Blacks vote cohesively in the State, but Hispanics do not. Whites show low levels of voting cohesion. Although a majority of Whites vote for different candidates than those preferred by Black voters, a significant share of White voters do vote for the same candidates as Blacks. Given the low levels of cohesion among Hispanics and Whites, it may be possible to create districts in which Blacks can elect their preferred candidates without having to create majority Black VAP CDs. Whether the maps do so depends on a second aspect of the functional analysis. C. Functional Analysis, Part II: Electoral Performance of Specific Districts 74. A second component of a functional analysis is to assess which districts actually function for the election of candidates preferred by minority voters. Whether a district is functioning depends on a variety of factors, including registration, the voting behavior of groups, turnout, and, racial composition of districts. The simplest way to gauge whether a 24 district functions for minority voters is whether candidates preferred by minority voters reliably win majorities of votes in the districts in question. I perform such an analysis with respect to the current majority Black CDs, the districts in the Jacksonville area, the districts in the Orlando area, and the districts in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. (i) Current CDs 17 and 23 75. All three maps examined here create majority Black VAP districts corresponding to current CDs 17 and 23. In the Enacted Map these are CDs 24 and 20, respectively, and in the Romo Map these are CDs 17 and 23, respectively. 76. In all three maps, the Black-preferred candidates won substantial majorities in the two elections examined, i.e., the 2008 Presidential election and the 2010 Governor election. This pair of CDs in all three maps functions as districts in which Blacks have the ability to elect their preferred representatives. (ii) Jacksonville Area 77. There is a significant Black population in City of Jacksonville and other nearby areas in North Florida, including Gainesville. Most of this population is represented through Current CD 3. Blacks of Voting Age are not a majority of the VAP in Current CD 3; Current CD 3 is already highly non-compact, and Current CD 3 is under populated by 37,000 persons. 25 78. Current CD 3 is a functioning district in which Black-preferred candidates win. In 2008, Obama won 70.6% of the vote and McCain won 28.5% of the vote. In 2010, Sink won 65.5% of the vote and McCain won 31.6% of the vote. 79. New CD 5 corresponds to current CD 3. In 2008, Obama won 70.5% and McCain won 28.8% of the vote. In 2010, Sink won 65.4% and Scott won 31.8% of the vote. 80. In the Romo Map, CD 3 captures the northern part of current CD 3, especially the Jacksonville area, including Gainesville and Palatka. It keeps the district entirely in North Florida and does not extend into the Orlando area. It also draws a substantial portion of its population from current CD 6. 81. In proposed CD 3 under the Romo Map, Obama won 59.9% and McCain won 39.2% of the 2008 presidential vote. Sink won 56.7% of the vote and Scott won 40.6% of the vote for Governor in 2010. 82. In sum, in all three maps’ districts Blacks do or can elect their preferred in candidates in the Jacksonville area. (iii) Orlando area 83. In the Current Map, the Orlando area, including Orange and Seminole Counties is divided into four districts. These are CDs 3, 8, 7, and 24. The city of Orlando is itself divided among CDs 3, 8, and 24. 26 84. Setting aside CD 3 (discussed above), Black-preferred candidates win in 1 of the current CDs in the Orlando area. Current CD 8 is a closely divided district. In current CD 8, Obama won 52.1% and McCain won 47.2% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 48.1% and Scott won 48.1% of the vote for Governor in 2010. In current CDs 7 and 24, Black-preferred candidates do not win. In current CD 7, Obama won 45.6% and McCain won 53.2% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 41.9% and Scott won 54.1% of the vote for Governor in 2010. In current CD 24, Obama won 48.5% and McCain won 50.4% of the vote for President in 2004. Sink won 44.3% and Scott won 51.7% of the vote for Governor in 2010. 85. The Enacted Map divides the Orlando area into CDs 5, 7, 9, and 10, and all four divide the City of Orlando. 86. Setting aside CD 5 (discussed above), Black-preferred candidates win pluralities in 1 of the other districts in the Orlando area under the Enacted Map. In new CD 9, Obama won 60.2% and McCain won 39.0% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 53.0% and Scott won 43.3% of the vote for Governor in 2010. In the remaining CDs, Blackpreferred candidates do not win. In new CD 7, Obama won 49.1% and McCain won 49.9% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 45.7% and Scott won 50.5% of the vote for Governor in 2010. In new CD 10, Obama won 47.2% and McCain won 52.0% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 43.8% and Scott won 52.3% of the vote for Governor in 2010. 27 87. The Romo Map creates an additional district in which Blacks have the ability to elect their preferred candidates in the Orlando area. The Romo Map divides the Orlando area into CDs 7, 8, and 26. The other two maps divide the black population of the city of Orlando across 3 districts and breaks Seminole County. The Romo Map divides Orlando in half, keeps one of those CDs (8) wholly inside Orange County, and also keeps Seminole County whole. 88. Setting aside CD 5 (discussed above), Black-preferred candidates win pluralities in 2 of the other districts in the Orlando area under the Romo Map. In proposed CD 8, Obama won 57.8% and McCain won 41.5% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 53.7% and Scott won 43.4% of the vote for Governor in 2010. In proposed CD 26, Obama won 60.8% and McCain won 38.5% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 53.8% and Scott won 42.6% of the vote for Governor in 2010. In proposed CD 7, Obama won 46.0% and McCain won 53.1% of the vote for President in 2008. Sink won 42.6% and Scott won 53.3% of the vote for Governor in 2010. 89. As discussed above, the Orlando area CDs proposed under the Romo Map are much more compact than under the Current Map. The Romo Map also cuts many fewer county boundaries than either the Current Map or the Enacted Map in this area. 28 90. In sum, it is possible to create an additional district in Orlando in which Blackpreferred candidates win. The opportunity to create such a district is diminished by the configuration of new CD 5 in the Enacted Map. (iv) Tampa and Saint Petersburg 91. In the Current Map CD 11 encompasses most of the City of Tampa in Hillsborough County, and jumps over Tampa Bay to include a portion of the City of Saint Petersburg. Current CD 10 represents most of Saint Petersburg and most of the remainder of Pinellas County. In the Enacted Map CD 14 also includes most of the City of Tampa Bay and jumps across Tampa Bay to capture part of the City of Saint Petersburg. Enacted CD 14 captures a larger portion of Saint Petersburg somewhat than CD 11 did. These districts cross the Pinellas and Hillsborough County lines and they cross the municipal boundary of the City of Saint Petersburg. 92. As shown in the Romo Map, it is not necessary the Pinellas County or Saint Petersburg City boundaries to ensure that Blacks can elect their preferred candidates. The Romo Map draws CD 11 entirely within Hillsborough County and CD 10 entirely within Pinellas County. 93. Current CD 11, Proposed CD 11 (Romo), and Enacted Map CD 14 each contain approximately the same Black Voting Age Population. 29 94. The Black-preferred candidates win clear majorities of the votes in elections for President in 2008 and Governor in 2010 in CD 11 in the Current Map, CD 14 in the Enacted Map, and CD 11 in the Romo Map. 95. In Current CD 10, Enacted CD 13, and Proposed CD 10 (Romo), Obama wins a majority of votes and Sink wins a plurality of votes. Hence, the boundary change with the Romo Map would not alter the outcomes in CD 10. 96. In sum, it is possible to construct highly compact CDs in the Tampa and Saint Petersburg area that cross fewer county and municipal lines and that maintain the same number of CDs in which Blacks have the ability to elect their preferred candidates as under the Current Map or under the Enacted Map. D. Representation of Blacks 97. The overall effects of the Current, Enacted, and Romo Maps can be seen through a simple calculation: a count of the number of Black persons covered by districts throughout the State of Florida in which Black-preferred candidates win. 98. Using MyDistrictBuilder, I calculated the number of Blacks in districts won by Obama or won by Sink, the Black-preferred candidates, and the number of Blacks in districts won by McCain or won by Scott. These results are in Table 3. 30 99. Under the Current Map, in the 10 CDs won by Obama in 2008 there were 1,798,627 Blacks, and in the 15 CDs won by McCain in 2008 there were 1,402,036 Blacks. In the 8 CDs won by Sink in 2010 there were 1,754,279 Blacks, and in the 17 CDs won by Scott in 2010 there were 1,446,384 Blacks. 100. In other words, under the Current Map, approximately 55% of Blacks lived in districts in which Black-preferred candidates won in 2008 and 2010. 101. Under the Enacted Map, in the 10 CDs won by Obama in 2008 there were 1,843,116 Blacks, and in the 15 CDs won by McCain in 2008 there were 1,357,547 Blacks. In the 8 CDs won by Sink in 2010 there were 1,929,293 Blacks, and in the 17 CDs won by Scott in 2010 there were 1,271,370 Blacks. 102. In other words, under the Enacted Map, approximately 58% of Blacks would live in districts in which Black-preferred candidates won in 2008 and 2010. 103. Under the Proposed Romo Map, in the 13 CDs won by Obama in 2008 there were 2,162,798 Blacks, and in the 14 CDs won by McCain in 2008 there were 1,037,865 Blacks. In the 12 CDs won by Sink in 2010 there were 2,167,349 Blacks, and in the 15 CDs won by Scott in 2010 there were 1,033,314 Blacks. 104. In other words, under the Proposed Romo Map, approximately 67% of Blacks would live in districts in which Black-preferred candidates won in 2008 and 2010. That 31 is 12 percentage points more than the Current Map and 9 percentage points more than the Enacted Map. 105. In sum, the Enacted Map improves somewhat on the number of Blacks in districts in which their preferred candidates win a majority of votes. There are approximately 150,000 more Blacks in districts in which Black-preferred candidates (Obama and Sink) won the more votes than their opponents. The Romo Map improves even more along that dimension. There are approximately 400,000 more Blacks in districts in which Blackpreferred candidates (Obama and Sink) won the more votes than their opponents. Incumbency 106. One way to gauge the degree to which the map protects incumbents is the extent to which incumbents draw most of their new districts from population that they already represented. The state witnessed substantial population growth resulting in 2 new CDs and that growth occurred unevenly throughout the state. As a result, I expect to observe substantial changes in many districts simply to adjust for population changes. Keeping most districts the same would be indicative of a higher degree of incumbent protection overall. The less change there is in districts the more incumbents are allowed to build up an incumbency advantage.3 3 See Stephen Ansolabehere, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Charles H. Stewart III, “Old Voters, New Voters, and the Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage” American Journal of Political Science 44 (2000): 17-34. 32 107. For each district I determined the Core District as the current CD from which a proposed or new CD draws the highest percent of its population. Using Maptitude the percent of the population of each district that derived from its core district. I also consulted the report “District by Existing District – Shares of Population” on the Florida Senate Redistricting Website for Plan H000C9047. 108. In the Enacted Map, the average percent from the Core District across all 27 CDs is 69.8 percent. There are 9 CDs in which less than 60% of the population comes from its Core CD. There are 8 CDs in which over 80% of the population comes from the Core CD. 109. In the Romo Map, the average percent from the Core District across all 27 CDs is 64.8 percent. There are 11 CDs in which less than 60% of the population comes from its Core CD. There are 4 CDs in which over 80% of the population comes from its Core CD. Conclusions 110. The Romo map complies with the stipulations of the Florida Constitution concerning race, party, and incumbency, as well as geographical compactness. 111. Across all criteria considered, the Romo Map offers substantial improvements over the Current Map and over the Enacted Map. On geography, the Romo Map avoids highly non-compact CDs, and it has a lower total number of county line crossings. On race, it 33 keeps the same the number of Black Majority CDs, increases the number of Black opportunity CDs in Orlando, and increases the number of Blacks in districts where Blackpreferred candidates win majorities of the vote. On party, it provides a map that treats both parties fairly and ensures majority rule for whichever party wins a majority of votes. On incumbency, it has It produces more turnover in district population and thus less incumbency protection. 112. When contrasted with the Current Map and the Enacted Map, the Romo Map highlights specific areas where improvements in districts maybe achieved. In particular, the Romo Map suggests a new approach to representation of Blacks in the Jacksonville area and a new configuration of CD 3 that keeps the same the number of functioning Black CDs in North Florida. Reconfiguration of CDs in the Orlando area can increase by the number of districts in which Blacks have the ability to elect their preferred candidates. Finally, there is the opportunity to improve the configuration of current CDs 10 and 11 (new CDs 13 and 14) without reducing the ability of Blacks to elect their preferred candidates. This would eliminate the unnecessary division of Pinellas County and the City of Saint Petersburg under the Current Map and the Enacted Map. 34 Table 1. Congressional Districts under the Current Florida Map and the Enacted Map, and their Geographic Compactness Current Map Enacted Map (9047) CD 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Population Deviation -2,187 41,174 -37,290 48,073 233,188 116,382 116,097 109,263 Reock (A/Ac) .38 .28 .14 .18 .43 .26 .22 .20 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 57,204 -62,456 -22,546 145,854 61,460 162,611 117,225 101,366 .29 .40 .28 .37 .51 .24 .34 .38 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 -41,185 16,445 40,074 -4,618 -2,844 -2,086 -12,238 102,888 110,831 .39 .10 .21 .28 .20 .15 .38 .54 .48 CD 01 02 05 04 11 03 06 09 10 12 13 14 15 16 19 08 17 18 24 27 21 23 25 22 20 07 26 35 % of Pop from Core CD 94.9% 91.2% 80.7% 85.8% 58.5% 65.7% 72.3% 36.7% 56.2% 56.8% 83.5% 84.9% 53.0% 96.0% 97.8% 79.1% 37.1% 65.3% 79.8% 66.6% 76.2% 65.6% 51.1% 56.5% 73.4% 50.6% 68.6% Reock .38 .46 .09 .45 .49 .56 .33 .48 .39 .41 .46 .36 .45 .44 .26 .34 .66 .51 .38 .46 .28 .27 .40 .18 .48 .56 .18 Table 2. Congressional Districts under the Current Florida Map and the Proposed Romo Map and their Geographic Compactness Current Map Proposed Romo Map CD 01 02 03 04 05 Population Deviation -2,187 41,174 -37,290 48,073 233,188 Reock (A/Ac) .38 .28 .14 .18 .43 06 07 116,382 116,097 .26 .22 08 109,263 .20 09 10 11 12 13 57,204 -62,456 -22,546 145,854 61,460 .29 .40 .28 .37 .51 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 162,611 117,225 101,366 -41,185 16,445 40,074 -4,618 -2,844 -2,086 -12,238 102,888 110,831 .24 .34 .38 .39 .10 .21 .28 .20 .15 .38 .54 .48 36 CD 01 02 % of Pop from Core CD 94.9% 89.0% 04 05 27 03 06 24 08 26 09 10 11 74.9% 63.9% 42.0% 47.3% 31.0% 55.5% 51.0% 39.4% 59.7% 80.0% 77.8% .35 .56 .32 .27 .45 .31 .45 .50 .29 .57 .27 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 07 25 46.5% 62.4% 100.0% 76.6% 74.1% 87.8% 69.3% 72.8% 76.5% 49.8% 59.9% 75.9% 29.2% 62.5% .46 .30 .27 .33 .45 .39 .43 .30 .27 .34 .15 .50 .35 .18 Reock .35 .44 Table 3. Numbers of Black Persons Residing in Districts in which Black Preferred Candidates won a Majority of the Democratic or Republican Vote under the Current Map, the Enacted Map, or the Proposed Romo Map CURRENT MAP Number of Blacks Number of CDs Won By Obama Won By McCain 1,798,627 1,402,036 10 15 Won By Sink Won By Scott 1,754,279 1,446,384 8 17 ENACTED MAP Number of Blacks Number of CDs Won By Obama Won By McCain 1,843,116 1,357,547 10 17 Won By Sink Won By Scott 1,929,293 1,271,370 10 17 ROMO MAP Number of Blacks Number of CDs Won By Obama Won By McCain 2,162,798 1,037,865 13 14 Won By Sink Won By Scott 2,167,349 1,033,314 12 15 37 STEPHEN DANIEL ANSOLABEHERE Department of Government Harvard University 1737 Cambridge Street Cambridge, MA 02138 sda@gov.harvard.edu EDUCATION Harvard University University of Minnesota Ph.D., Political Science B.A., Political Science B.S., Economics 1989 1984 PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE ACADEMIC POSITIONS 2008-present 1998-2009 1995-1998 1993-1994 1989-1993 Professor, Department of Government, Harvard University Elting Morison Professor, Department of Political Science, MIT (Associate Head, 2002-2005) Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, MIT National Fellow, The Hoover Institution Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles FELLOWSHIPS AND HONORS American Academy of Arts and Sciences Carnegie Scholar Goldsmith Book Prize for Going Negative National Fellow, The Hoover Institution Harry S. Truman Fellowship 2007 2000-02 1996 1993-94 1982-86 1 PUBLICATIONS Books 2012 American Government, 12th edition, W.W. Norton. With Benjamin Ginsberg, Ted Lowi, and Kenneth Shepsle 2008 The End of Inequality: One Person, One Vote and the Transformation of American Politics. W. W. Norton. 1996 Going Negative: How Political Advertising Divides and Shrinks the American Electorate (with Shanto Iyengar). The Free Press. 1993 Media Game: American Politics in the Television Age (with Roy Behr and Shanto Iyengar). Macmillan. Recent Articles in Refereed Journals Forthcoming “Movers, Stayers, and Registration” Quarterly Journal of Political Science (with Eitan Hersh and Ken Shepsle) Forthcoming “Pants on Fire: Misreporting, Sample Selection, and Participation” Political Analysis (with Eitan Hersh) Forthcoming “Does Survey Mode Still Matter?” Political Analysis (with Brian Schaffner) 2012 “Arizona Free Enterprise v. Bennett and the Problem of Campaign Finance” Supreme Court Review 2012 “The American Public’s Energy Choice” Daedalus (with David Konisky) 2011 “When Parties Are Not Teams: Party positions in single-member district and proportional representation systems” Economic Theory 49 (March) DOI: 10.1007/s00199-011-0610-1 2011 “Profiling Originalism” Columbia Law Review vol. 111 (with Jamal Greene and Nathaniel Persily). 2010 “Partisanship, Public Opinion, and Redistricting” Election Law Journal (with Joshua Fougere and Nathaniel Persily). 2 2010 “Primary Elections and Party Polarization” Quarterly Journal of Political Science (with Shigeo Hirano, James Snyder, and Mark Hansen) 2010 “Constituents’ Responses to Congressional Roll Call Voting,” American Journal of Political Science (with Phil Jones) 2010 “Race, Region, and Vote Choice in the 2008 Election: Implications for the Future of the Voting Rights Act” Harvard Law Review April, 2010. (with Nathaniel Persily and Charles H. Stewart III) 2010 “Residential Mobility and the Cell Only Population,” Public Opinion Quarterly (with Brian Schaffner) 2009 “Explaining Attitudes Toward Power Plant Location,” Public Opinion Quarterly (with David Konisky) 2009 “Public risk perspectives on the geologic storage of carbon dioxide,” International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control (with Gregory Singleton and Howard Herzog) 3(1): 100-107. 2008 “A Spatial Model of the Relationship Between Seats and Votes” (with William Leblanc) Mathematical and Computer Modeling (November). 2008 “The Strength of Issues: Using Multiple Measures to Gauge Preference Stability, Ideological Constraint, and Issue Voting” (with Jonathan Rodden and James M. Snyder, Jr.) American Political Science Review (May). 2008 “Access versus Integrity in Voter Identification Requirements.” New York University Annual Survey of American Law, vol 63. 2008 “Voter Fraud in the Eye of the Beholder” (with Nathaniel Persily) Harvard Law Review (May) 2007 “Incumbency Advantages in U. S. Primary Elections,” (with John Mark Hansen, Shigeo Hirano, and James M. Snyder, Jr.) Electoral Studies (September) 2007 “Television and the Incumbency Advantage” (with Erik C. Snowberg and James M. Snyder, Jr). Legislative Studies Quarterly. 2006 “The Political Orientation of Newspaper Endorsements” (with Rebecca Lessem and James M. Snyder, Jr.). Quarterly Journal of Political Science vol. 1, issue 3. 3 2006 “Voting Cues and the Incumbency Advantage: A Critical Test” (with Shigeo Hirano, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Michiko Ueda) Quarterly Journal of Political Science vol. 1, issue 2. 2006 “American Exceptionalism? Similarities and Differences in National Attitudes Toward Energy Policies and Global Warming” (with David Reiner, Howard Herzog, K. Itaoka, M. Odenberger, and Fillip Johanssen) Environmental Science and Technology (February 22, 2006), http://pubs3.acs.org/acs/journals/doilookup?in_doi=10.1021/es052010b 2006 “Purple America” (with Jonathan Rodden and James M. Snyder, Jr.) Journal of Economic Perspectives (Winter). 2005 “Did the Introduction of Voter Registration Decrease Turnout?” (with David Konisky). Political Analysis. 2005 “Statistical Bias in Newspaper Reporting: The Case of Campaign Finance” Public Opinion Quarterly (with James M. Snyder, Jr., and Erik Snowberg). 2005 “Studying Elections” Policy Studies Journal (with Charles H. Stewart III and R. Michael Alvarez). 2005 “Legislative Bargaining under Weighted Voting” American Economic Review (with James M. Snyder, Jr., and Michael Ting) 2005 “Voting Weights and Formateur Advantages in Coalition Formation: Evidence from Parliamentary Coalitions, 1946 to 2002” (with James M. Snyder, Jr., Aaron B. Strauss, and Michael M. Ting) American Journal of Political Science. 2005 “Reapportionment and Party Realignment in the American States” Pennsylvania Law Review (with James M. Snyder, Jr.) 2004 “Residual Votes Attributable to Voting Technologies” (with Charles Stewart) Journal of Politics 2004 “Using Term Limits to Estimate Incumbency Advantages When Office Holders Retire Strategically” (with James M. Snyder, Jr.). Legislative Studies Quarterly vol. 29, November 2004, pages 487-516. 2004 “Did Firms Profit From Soft Money?” (with James M. Snyder, Jr., and Michiko Ueda) Election Law Journal vol. 3, April 2004. 2003 “Bargaining in Bicameral Legislatures” (with James M. Snyder, Jr. and Mike Ting) American Political Science Review, August, 2003. 4 2003 “Why Is There So Little Money in U.S. Politics?” (with James M. Snyder, Jr.) Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter, 2003. 2002 “Equal Votes, Equal Money: Court-Ordered Redistricting and the Public Spending in the American States” (with Alan Gerber and James M. Snyder, Jr.) American Political Science Review, December, 2002. Paper awarded the Heinz Eulau award for the best paper in the American Political Science Review. 2002 “Are PAC Contributions and Lobbying Linked?” (with James M. Snyder, Jr. and Micky Tripathi) Business and Politics 4, no. 2. 2002 “The Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Elections: An Analysis of State and Federal Offices, 1942-2000” (with James Snyder) Election Law Journal, 1, no. 3. 2001 “Voting Machines, Race, and Equal Protection.” Election Law Journal, vol. 1, no. 1 2001 “Models, assumptions, and model checking in ecological regressions” (with Andrew Gelman, David Park, Phillip Price, and Larraine Minnite) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series A, 164: 101-118. 2001 “The Effects of Party and Preferences on Congressional Roll Call Voting.” (with James Snyder and Charles Stewart) Legislative Studies Quarterly (forthcoming). Paper awarded the Jewell-Lowenberg Award for the best paper published on legislative politics in 2001. Paper awarded the Jack Walker Award for the best paper published on party politics in 2001. 2001 “Candidate Positions in Congressional Elections,” (with James Snyder and Charles Stewart). American Journal of Political Science 45 (November). 2000 “Old Voters, New Voters, and the Personal Vote,” (with James Snyder and Charles Stewart) American Journal of Political Science 44 (February). 2000 “Soft Money, Hard Money, Strong Parties,” (with James Snyder) Columbia Law Review 100 (April):598 - 619. 2000 “Campaign War Chests and Congressional Elections,” (with James Snyder) Business and Politics. 2 (April): 9-34. 1999 “Replicating Experiments Using Surveys and Aggregate Data: The Case of Negative Advertising.” (with Shanto Iyengar and Adam Simon) American 5 Political Science Review 93 (December). 1999 “Valence Politics and Equilibrium in Spatial Models,” (with James Snyder), Public Choice. 1999 “Money and Institutional Power,” (with James Snyder), Texas Law Review 77 (June, 1999): 1673-1704. 1997 “Incumbency Advantage and the Persistence of Legislative Majorities,” (with Alan Gerber), Legislative Studies Quarterly 22 (May 1997). 1996 “The Effects of Ballot Access Rules on U.S. House Elections,” (with Alan Gerber), Legislative Studies Quarterly 21 (May 1996). 1994 “Riding the Wave and Issue Ownership: The Importance of Issues in Political Advertising and News,” (with Shanto Iyengar) Public Opinion Quarterly 58: 335-357. 1994 “Horseshoes and Horseraces: Experimental Evidence of the Effects of Polls on Campaigns,” (with Shanto Iyengar) Political Communications 11/4 (OctoberDecember): 413-429. 1994 “Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?” (with Shanto Iyengar), American Political Science Review 89 (December). 1994 “The Mismeasure of Campaign Spending: Evidence from the 1990 U.S. House Elections,” (with Alan Gerber) Journal of Politics 56 (September). 1993 “Poll Faulting,” (with Thomas R. Belin) Chance 6 (Winter): 22-28. 1991 “The Vanishing Marginals and Electoral Responsiveness,” (with David Brady and Morris Fiorina) British Journal of Political Science 22 (November): 21-38. 1991 “Mass Media and Elections: An Overview,” (with Roy Behr and Shanto Iyengar) American Politics Quarterly 19/1 (January): 109-139. 1990 “The Limits of Unraveling in Interest Groups,” Rationality and Society 2: 394-400. 1990 “Measuring the Consequences of Delegate Selection Rules in Presidential Nominations,” (with Gary King) Journal of Politics 52: 609-621. 1989 “The Nature of Utility Functions in Mass Publics,” (with Henry Brady) American Political Science Review 83: 143-164. 6 Special Reports and Policy Studies 2010 The Future of Nuclear Power, Revised. 2006 The Future of Coal. MIT Press. Continued reliance on coal as a primary power source will lead to very high concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, resulting in global warming. This cross-disciplinary study – drawing on faculty from Physics, Economics, Chemistry, Nuclear Engineering, and Political Science – develop a road map for technology research and development policy in order to address the challenges of carbon emissions from expanding use of coal for electricity and heating throughout the world. 2003 The Future of Nuclear Power. MIT Press. This cross-disciplinary study – drawing on faculty from Physics, Economics, Chemistry, Nuclear Engineering, and Political Science – examines the what contribution nuclear power can make to meet growing electricity demand, especially in a world with increasing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel power plants. 2002 “Election Day Registration.” A report prepared for DEMOS. This report analyzes the possible effects of Proposition 52 in California based on the experiences of 6 states with election day registration. 2001 Voting: What Is, What Could Be. A report of the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project. This report examines the voting system, especially technologies for casting and counting votes, registration systems, and polling place operations, in the United States. It was widely used by state and national governments in formulating election reforms following the 2000 election. 2001 “An Assessment of the Reliability of Voting Technologies.” A report of the Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project. This report provided the first nationwide assessment of voting equipment performance in the United States. It was prepared for the Governor’s Select Task Force on Election Reform in Florida. Chapters in Edited Volumes 2012 “Voting Technology” in Margin of Victory: How Technologists Help Politicians Win Elections, ABC-CLIO. 2010 “Dyadic Representation” in Oxford Handbook on Congress, Eric Schickler, ed., Oxford University Press. 7 2008 “Voting Technology and Election Law” in America Votes!, Benjamin Griffith, editor, Washington, DC: American Bar Association. 2007 What Did the Direct Primary Do to Party Loyalty in Congress” (with Shigeo Hirano and James M. Snyder Jr.) in Process, Party and Policy Making: Further New Perspectives on the History of Congress, David Brady and Matthew D. McCubbins (eds.), Stanford University Press, 2007. 2007 “Election Administration and Voting Rights” in Renewal of the Voting Rights Act, David Epstein and Sharyn O’Hallaran, eds. Russell Sage Foundation. 2006 “The Decline of Competition in Primary Elections,” (with John Mark Hansen, Shigeo Hirano, and James M. Snyder, Jr.) The Marketplace of Democracy, Michael P. McDonald and John Samples, eds. Washington, DC: Brookings. 2005 “Voters, Candidates and Parties” in Handbook of Political Economy, Barry Weingast and Donald Wittman, eds. New York: Oxford University Press. 2003 “Baker v. Carr in Context, 1946 – 1964” (with Samuel Isaacharoff) in Constitutional Cases in Context, Michael Dorf, editor. New York: Foundation Press. 2002 “Corruption and the Growth of Campaign Spending”(with Alan Gerber and James Snyder). A User’s Guide to Campaign Finance, Jerry Lubenow, editor. Rowman and Littlefield. 2001 “The Paradox of Minimal Effects,” in Henry Brady and Richard Johnston, eds., Do Campaigns Matter? University of Michigan Press. 2001 “Campaigns as Experiments,” in Henry Brady and Richard Johnson, eds., Do Campaigns Matter? University of Michigan Press. 2000 “Money and Office,” (with James Snyder) in David Brady and John Cogan, eds., Congressional Elections: Continuity and Change. Stanford University Press. 1996 “The Science of Political Advertising,” (with Shanto Iyengar) in Political Persuasion and Attitude Change, Richard Brody, Diana Mutz, and Paul Sniderman, eds. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. 1995 “Evolving Perspectives on the Effects of Campaign Communication,” in Philo Warburn, ed., Research in Political Sociology, vol. 7, JAI. 1995 “The Effectiveness of Campaign Advertising: It’s All in the Context,” (with Shanto Iyengar) in Campaigns and Elections American Style, Candice Nelson and James A. Thurber, eds. Westview Press. 8 1993 “Information and Electoral Attitudes: A Case of Judgment Under Uncertainty,” (with Shanto Iyengar), in Explorations in Political Psychology, Shanto Iyengar and William McGuire, eds. Durham: Duke University Press. Working Papers 2009 “Sociotropic Voting and the Media” (with Marc Meredith and Erik Snowberg), American National Election Study Pilot Study Reports, John Aldrich editor. 2007 “Public Attitudes Toward America’s Energy Options: Report of the 2007 MIT Energy Survey” CEEPR Working Paper 07-002 and CANES working paper. 2006 "Constituents' Policy Perceptions and Approval of Members' of Congress" CCES Working Paper 06-01 (with Phil Jones). 2004 “Using Recounts to Measure the Accuracy of Vote Tabulations: Evidence from New Hampshire Elections, 1946 to 2002” (with Andrew Reeves). 2002 “Evidence of Virtual Representation: Reapportionment in California,” (with Ruimin He and James M. Snyder). 1999 “Why did a majority of Californians vote to lower their own power?” (with James Snyder and Jonathan Woon). Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, September, 1999. Paper received the award for the best paper on Representation at the 1999 Annual Meeting of the APSA. 1999 “Has Television Increased the Cost of Campaigns?” (with Alan Gerber and James Snyder). 1996 “Money, Elections, and Candidate Quality,” (with James Snyder). 1996 “Party Platform Choice - Single- Member District and Party-List Systems,”(with James Snyder). 1995 “Messages Forgotten” (with Shanto Iyengar). 1994 “Consumer Contributors and the Returns to Fundraising: A Microeconomic Analysis,” (with Alan Gerber), presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September. 1992 “Biases in Ecological Regression,” (with R. Douglas Rivers) August, (revised February 1994). Presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Meetings, 9 April 1994, Chicago, IL. 1992 “Using Aggregate Data to Correct Nonresponse and Misreporting in Surveys” (with R. Douglas Rivers). Presented at the annual meeting of the Political Methodology Group, Cambridge, Massachusetts, July. 1991 “The Electoral Effects of Issues and Attacks in Campaign Advertising” (with Shanto Iyengar). Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC. 1991 “Television Advertising as Campaign Strategy: Some Experimental Evidence” (with Shanto Iyengar). Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Phoenix. 1991 “Why Candidates Attack: Effects of Televised Advertising in the 1990 California Gubernatorial Campaign,” (with Shanto Iyengar). Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association, Seattle, March. 1990 “Winning is Easy, But It Sure Ain’t Cheap.” Working Paper #90-4, Center for the American Politics and Public Policy, UCLA. Presented at the Political Science Departments at Rochester University and the University of Chicago. Research Grants 1989-1990 Markle Foundation. “A Study of the Effects of Advertising in the 1990 California Gubernatorial Campaign.” Amount: $50,000 1991-1993 Markle Foundation. “An Experimental Study of the Effects of Campaign Advertising.” Amount: $150,000 1991-1993 NSF. “An Experimental Study of the Effects of Advertising in the 1992 California Senate Electoral.” Amount: $100,000 1994-1995 MIT Provost Fund. “Money in Elections: A Study of the Effects of Money on Electoral Competition.” Amount: $40,000 1996-1997 National Science Foundation. “Campaign Finance and Political Representation.” Amount: $50,000 1997 National Science Foundation. “Party Platforms: A Theoretical Investigation of Party Competition Through Platform Choice.” Amount: $40,000 1997-1998 National Science Foundation. “The Legislative Connection in Congressional 10 Campaign Finance. Amount: $150,000 1999-2000 MIT Provost Fund. “Districting and Representation.” Amount: $20,000. 1999-2002 Sloan Foundation. “Congressional Staff Seminar.” Amount: $156,000. 2000-2001 Carnegie Corporation. “The Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project.” Amount: $253,000. 2001-2002 Carnegie Corporation. “Dissemination of Voting Technology Information.” Amount: $200,000. 2003-2005 National Science Foundation. “State Elections Data Project.” Amount: $256,000. 2003-2004 Carnegie Corporation. “Internet Voting.” Amount: $279,000. 2003-2005 Knight Foundation. “Accessibility and Security of Voting Systems.” Amount: $450,000. 2006-2008 National Science Foundation, “Primary Election Data Project” 2008-2009 Pew/JEHT. “Measuring Voting Problems in Primary Elections, A National Survey.” Amount: $300,000 2008-2009 Pew/JEHT. “Comprehensive Assessment of the Quality of Voter Registration Lists in the United States: A pilot study proposal” (with Alan Gerber). Amount: $100,000. 2010-2011 National Science Foundation, “Cooperative Congressional Election Study,” $360,000 2010-2012 Sloan Foundation, “Precinct-Level U. S. Election Data,” $240,000. Professional Boards Editor, Cambridge University Press Book Series, Political Economy of Institutions and Decisions. Member, Board of Overseers, American National Election Studies, 1999 to present. Member, Board of the Reuters International School of Journalism, Oxford University, 2007 to present. 11 Contributing Editor, Boston Review, The State of the Nation. Editorial Board of American Journal of Political Science, 2005 to present. Editorial Board of Legislative Studies Quarterly, 2005 to present. Editorial Board of Public Opinion Quarterly, 2006 to present. Editorial Board of the Election Law Journal, 2002 to present. Editorial Board of the Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 1996 to 2008. Editorial Board of Business and Politics, 2002 to Present. Scientific Advisory Board, Polimetrix, 2004 to 2006. Special Projects and Task Forces Principal Investigator, Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 2005 – present. MIT Energy Innovation Study, 2009-2010. MIT Energy Initiative, Steering Council, 2007-2008 Co-Director, Caltech/MIT Voting Technology Project, 2000-2004. Co-Organizer, MIT Seminar for Senior Congressional and Executive Staff, 1996-2007. MIT Coal Study, 2004-2006. MIT Energy Research Council, 2005-2006. MIT Nuclear Study, 2002-2004. Voting Technology Task Force Leader, Election Reform Initiative of the Constitution Project, 2001 to 2002. 12 EXHIBIT F EXHIBIT G IN THE CIRCUIT COURT FOR THE SECOND JUDICIAL CIRCUIT IN AND FOR LEON COUNTY, FLORIDA RENE ROMO, an individual; BENJAMIN WEAVER, an individual; et. al, Plaintiffs, vs. CASE NO. 2012-CA-00412 KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of States, PAMELA JO BONDI, in her official capacity as Attorney General, Defendants. _______________________________/ THE LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF FLORIDA; THE NATIONAL COUNCIL OF LA RAZA; et al., Plaintiffs, vs. CASE NO. 2012-CA-00490 KEN DETZNER, in his official capacity as Florida Secretary of State; THE FLORIDA SENATE; et al., Defendants. _________________________________/ ORDER RESOLVING DISCOVERY MOTIONS Before the Court are (i) “The Florida House of Representatives’ Motion to Compel Romo Plaintiffs to Produce Privilege-Log Documents,” filed November 29, 2012, (ii) “The Romo Plaintiffs’ Motion to Compel Materials Withheld By the Legislative Defendants On Grounds of Attorney-Client Privilege and Attorney Work Product,” filed October 29, 2012, and (iii) “The Florida House of Representatives’ Motion to Compel or, in the Alternative, Motion in Limine,” filed October 10, 2012. The Court having reviewed the motions, responses, and other pertinent 1 materials, having heard argument of counsel, and being otherwise fully informed, it is hereby ordered and adjudged as follows: 1. The Florida House of Representatives’ Motion to Compel Romo Plaintiffs to Produce Privilege-Log Documents is DENIED. 2. The Romo Plaintiffs’ Motion to Compel Materials Withheld By the Legislative Defendants On Grounds of Attorney-Client Privilege and Attorney Work Product, is GRANTED. The Court finds, under the circumstances of this case, that the Legislative Defendants have not met their burden to show that documents generated before the legislative enactment at issue was passed are privileged from disclosure. Therefore, no later than January 10, 2013, the Legislative Defendants shall produce all documents listed in their privilege logs that were created before February 9, 2012, and are identified with yellow highlighting in Exhibits A, B, and C of the Romo Plaintiffs' Motion to Compel. The Court further finds that the Legislative Defendants have not met their burden to show that documents generated for purposes of other litigation that has now concluded are privileged from disclosure. Therefore, no later than January 10, 2013, the Legislative Defendants shall produce all such documents listed in their privilege logs that were created for purposes of other litigation that has now concluded and are identified with yellow highlighting in Exhibits A, B, and C of the Romo Plaintiffs' Motion to Compel. The remaining yellow-highlighted documents in Exhibits A, B, and C of the Romo Plaintiffs' Motion to Compel contain insufficient descriptions for the Court to evaluate the assertions of privilege. Therefore, the Legislative Defendants shall submit such documents for in camera inspection no later than January 7, 2012. 3. The Florida House of Representatives’ Motion to Compel or, in the Alternative, Motion in Limine is GRANTED IN PART AND DENIED IN PART. The Court finds that for 2 any alternative map to be relied on by Plaintiffs at trial in this case, Plaintiffs shall produce nonprivileged documents and information relating to the process by which alternative maps were prepared, the identities of individuals who prepared them, and activities and communications concerning alternative maps. The Court further finds that although the requested materials are discoverable, they are not necessarily admissible, and any determinations regarding admissibility will be made at the appropriate time. The motion is denied in all other respects, including to the extent it seeks documents and information related to "redistricting" and "the redistricting process generally." Because the Court fully disposed of the motion to compel, the Court need not address the Motion’s alternative request for an order granting in limine relief. No later than January 10, 2013, consistent with this Order, Plaintiffs shall produce the documents addressed in the motion to compel, shall respond to the interrogatories addressed in the motion to compel, and shall respond to the requests for admission addressed in the motion to compel. DONE AND ORDERED in Chambers at Tallahassee, Leon County, Florida, this _____ day of January, 2013. ___________________________________ TERRY P. LEWIS, Circuit Judge Copies to all counsel of record 3 EXHIBIT H