The Swamp, Chicago Tribune Blog, IL
12-10-07
Top GOP candidates largely avoiding Iowa
Absence could endanger state's influence on race
By Rick Pearson | Tribune political reporter
DES MOINES - As Democrats compete furiously for support throughout the
nation's first presidential contest state, most Republican contenders have been
bypassing Iowa, eschewing the meet-and-greet retail politics that have been the
state's hallmark and putting at risk its claim for relevancy in the nominating
process.
When Mike Huckabee delivered a speech on health care in Des Moines on Dec.
3, it was his first trip to Iowa in almost a month. When Mitt Romney held a townhall-style meeting in Cedar Rapids on Nov. 30, it ended a stretch of 10 days
without an appearance in Iowa. And those two are the GOP front-runners in
Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses.
National front-runner Rudolph Giuliani hasn't been in Iowa since Nov. 8. The
former New York mayor's campaign is debuting TV ads on an almost weekly
basis -- in New Hampshire. And other leading GOP contenders have similar long
absences.
"I think what they're doing is getting ready for the major primaries, the big Feb. 5
vote, and putting their time and money out there," said Richard Lasell, a retired
sales executive from Cedar Rapids who, at age 82, has long been active as a
Republican in Iowa politics.
There are as many explanations as there are candidates for the phenomenon of
Iowa's missing Republicans: the accelerated nominating calendar that has
packed more states into the contest more quickly; an unstoppable need for
fundraising; a later start by some contenders; and a lack of enthusiasm among
GOP voters for the presidential field, as well as a depressed mood over the
progress on Iraq and other issues linked to the White House.
In a state where potential caucusgoers like to get up close, ask questions and
kick the tires to see how well the candidates run, the opportunities for
Republicans have been sparse.
Through Sunday, the six major Democratic contenders had been in Iowa more
than 380 times this year, while the five major Republican candidates had been in
Iowa on about 175 occasions, according to the Iowa Democratic Party's tracking
of all candidate visits. Romney and Huckabee account for all but about 65 of
those GOP trips to Iowa.
"I know that some of the candidates have put a lot of time and effort here.
Certainly Romney's spent an enormous amount of money here and a lot of time,"
Huckabee said last week. "We try to split our time up a lot, but we know we have
to spend the biggest bulk of our time, particularly right now till the 3rd, here in
Iowa, which is what I'll do."
The end of an era?
At a time when Iowa's leadoff position in the nominating process has come under
fire more than ever, the drive-by nature of the Republican campaigning in the
state risks the potential of rivals marginalizing the GOP caucus results and could
further jeopardize the state's vaunted role in helping to select nominees.
Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University,
said he believes the state's leadoff "slingshot" role already may be close to
becoming history.
"It's not going to be nearly the same four years from now. This is going to be the
last that it will be this way," Schmidt said. "Iowa is providing a useful scenario for
candidates to be critiqued and tested even when they're not here. That in itself is
a campaign strategy."
Schmidt said the Democratic contenders are more comfortable than Republicans
in using retail politics because they are courting a national audience on populist
themes, using the "movie-studio setting" of Iowa to sell the message across the
country.
"Republicans have a different constituency, and [retail campaigning] is not the
most important for their campaign," he said.
It's not the first time that Republican contenders have bypassed Iowa. In the
2000 GOP campaign, Sen. John. McCain set up camp in New Hampshire and
temporarily blunted then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush's campaign for the White
House.
No campaigns are officially or formally writing off Iowa this time around. McCain
has been to the state about three dozen times, though he still is largely counting
on New Hampshire, which holds its nation-leading primary five days after the
Iowa caucuses, to propel his candidacy.
While Giuliani has held a lead in national polls, he has never led in polls of Iowa
Republicans. He has made fewer than 20 visits to Iowa, a reflection that his
candidacy does not have high expectations of appealing to churchgoing
conservatives who represent a large share of GOP caucusgoers.
Looking ahead
Instead, Giuliani is counting on contests further down the line like those in large
Feb. 5 states such as Illinois, which he has visited eight times, in hopes of
appealing to more socially moderate voters or those more receptive to his antiterrorism theme.
Former Iowa GOP Rep. Greg Ganske said he believes Republican contenders
are not looking at the caucuses as a make-or-break event as much as the
Democrats.
"I would guess that several of the Republican candidates are looking to areas
where if they don't win the first couple of contests they can make it up in safety
nets, South Carolina or states like that," Ganske said. "I think there's actually
more strategy going on in the Republican side in terms of where to spend your
time and resources than the Democrats can afford."
The first indication that the entire Republican field wouldn't fully compete in Iowa
surfaced over the summer, before the state GOP's presidential Straw Poll
fundraiser, when Giuliani and McCain opted not to participate in the event.
Roughly 10,000 fewer votes were cast at the Straw Poll than in 1999.
Now, as the caucuses grow near, all of the Republican contenders are vowing to
return to the state with greater frequency.
The entire field will appear at one of the last GOP gatherings before the
caucuses, a Des Moines Register-sponsored debate Wednesday. The last time
they all were on the same stage in Iowa was a previous debate -- more than
three months ago.