Gazette Online, IA
12-02-07
A month to go
By Rod Boshart
The Gazette
rod.boshart@gazettecommunications.com
DES MOINES - December in Iowa this year may be one for the ages.
The earliest-ever start of the presidential selection process has created a rare
clash of two economic and cultural titans — the holiday season and crunchtime
for political candidates shopping for support in the Jan. 3 leadoff Iowa caucuses.
"We're in absolutely uncharted territory," said University of Iowa political scientist
Bruce Gronbeck.
"I believe it will be a month like we've not seen," added Gordon Fischer, a former
Iowa Democratic Party chair who is backing Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's 2008
candidacy.
That's because campaign shutdowns normally aren't sandwiched around major
religious holidays — a phenomenon that has political experts and campaign
strategists scratching their heads over how the next 32 days will play out.
"I think the campaigns are going to have to change their message during the
Christmas season and renew their normal kind of campaign after Christmas is
over. It's going to change the campaign strategy," said Iowa State University
political science professor Steffen Schmidt.
What happens in the monthlong run-up to Iowa's Jan. 3 climax will help make or
break some candidates' 2008 aspirations. But campaigns face a difficult
balancing act in pushing a political message — sometimes a negative message
— without turning off or offending potential caucus-goers during a season
shrouded in peace and goodwill.
"I think the candidates are going to have to be very careful to make sure that they
aren't labeled the Grinch of that week. The 'Peace on earth and I hate Romney'
(message) just won't work," said Gronbeck, who held out an exception for the
possibility of Internet-based attacks making the rounds.
Further complicating the situation is the fact that the holidays land within the
window of time when political experts believe undecided voters make up their
minds, and the 2008 presidential races for both Democrats and Republicans are
very fluid in a state that has increased importance due to the "front-loading" of
the selection season.
"Those are things that are driving the campaigns absolutely nuts because there
is simply no way to predict on the basis of caucus history," he added. "The whole
notion that you're going to have a dead week 10 days before the caucuses
absolutely blows my mind. There's general uncertainty."
David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa associate professor of political science,
said he expects the next three weeks to feature very intense campaigning with
lots of candidate appearances and a ramping up of campaign staffers on the
ground in Iowa.
He expects campaign workers will take off Dec. 24 and Christmas but be back at
work by midday Dec. 26 to begin the final push. Caucus-goers' mailboxes will not
see a break, however, and he does not rule out the possibility of things going
negative.
"I don't subscribe to some of the theories going around that we won't see
negativity because people won't like it during Christmas or that we will see
everybody taking it a little easier," he said. "No, once we come down to it, the
stakes are too high. I think the standard campaign tactics will be in play. We'll just
get a real brief break from it."
Drake University political scientist Arthur Sanders said candidates will show up in
person, via television commercials during local news and sports programming, by
telephone and in mailed fliers.
He also expects "pseudo" events, such as candidates working at soup kitchens
or delivering toys and food baskets to needy Iowans, during the holidays.
Adding to Iowa's December buzz is the anticipated arrival of TV megastar Oprah
Winfrey in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids on Saturday on behalf of Obama's
campaign.
Political experts tend to downplay the impact of endorsements, but they
acknowledge Winfrey is in a special entertainer category and may draw new
faces to the process. Whether they will attend a caucus is another matter, they
say.
"Oprah Winfrey is the Mother Teresa of entertainers," Schmidt said. "To me, it's
huge for Obama to have gotten her endorsement," given that a point or two could
sway the caucuses' outcome either way.
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign countered by announcing she had
landed the endorsement of Barbra Streisand, but Sanders said it was difficult to
measure how Streisand factors into the overall political landscape.
"Maybe 15 little house parties equals half of one Oprah visit. I don't know how the
calculations go in that regard," he said.
Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford said cracks have
appeared in Clinton's inevitability as the Democratic nominee, and she appears
to be unleashing a "shock and awe" response that includes a cadre of more
staffers and resources and her husband, Bill, the ex-president, "to try to staunch
any perception that she's slipping or otherwise fading."