Citizen, South Africa
11-11-07
Time running short for Obama
by Stephen Collinson
DES MOINES, United States
He has the charisma, legions of adoring young supporters and a bulging
campaign war chest, but time is running short for Barack Obama to catch 2008
White House rival Hillary Clinton.
The Democratic Senator, 46, on a crusade to cleanse embittered US politics, has
injected freshness and dynamism into the presidential campaign.
But he is struggling to shift a so-far immovable force: Clinton, who despite minor
gaffes, tops every key poll -- some by double digits.
After a 10-month campaign, just 54 days remain for Obama to overhaul the
former first lady before the first nominating contest, the Iowa caucuses on
January 3.
"When we started this campaign back in February, there were a lot of people who
even doubted we could make it where we are today," Obama told a raucous rally
of supporters chanting his catch-phrase "fired-up!" Saturday.
But firing up devoted followers is one thing, halting the Clinton juggernaut
another.
Obama's asset as a new voice is the flip side of his weakness: he is still green as
a campaigner, analysts said.
"Obama has had a number of missteps that we can chalk up to inexperience,"
said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Iowa's Drake University.
Obama's offer earlier this year to meet leaders of US enemies like North Korea
and Iran played into the Clinton theme he is too naive to be entrusted with the
Oval Office.
It may have also caused Democrats, who believe President George W. Bush
stole the 2000 election and unfairly skewered John Kerry on national security in
2004, to envision Obama as the target of fierce Republican assaults.
And the Illinois senator's message, of hope and healing divisions, sometimes
seems to jar with the party's acerbic mood.
"Edwards is running from the the left, and Clinton is running from the right, and
Obama is running from above," Goldford said, questioning whether Obama's lofty
rhetoric fits the mood of Democrats.
Obama is also hampered by expectations, after bursting on the scene with a
soaring speech at the Democratic convention in 2004, which left the party
swooning.
While hitting the heights several times since, Obama also sometimes lapses into
the plodding persona of the law professor he once was and is yet to hit top form
in a Democratic debate.
Obama has also rejected the idea that his race is a factor for voters, as he strives
to become America's first African-American president.
Could it be that Obama's problems spring, not from his weakness, but Clinton's
strengths?
"The answer is so clear in the poll data ... number one is strong leadership, the
other is electability," said Steffen Schmidt, professor of political science at
Iowa State University.
An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll this week found Clinton had a 76 percent to 41
percent lead among Democrats asked who had the knowledge and experience to
be president.
The Iowa caucuses will be a moment of truth for Obama and another top
Democrat John Edwards. Should Clinton win, she may roll all the way to the
nomination.
But there are glimmers of hope for her rivals.
Iowa voters are notorious for making up their minds late, and many Democrats
elsewhere are only now tuning into the race.
The Iowa race is very close, virtually a dead heat and Cary Covington, political
science professor at the University of Iowa said that "absent some major mistake
from the Clinton campaign" that is the way it will stay.
So, Obama has just seven weeks to change the dynamic.
First, he must establish momentum. Aides say that in four early primary states
New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina, Obama is "closing in" on
Clinton.
Obama is increasingly targeting Clinton's weaknesses, accusing her of dodging
questions after a shaky performance in the last Democratic debate.
He argues he is more likely to expand the Democratic tent in 2008, than Clinton,
with her high negative poll ratings.
But attacking Clinton calls for delicacy. Her camp already says he has soiled his
"politics of hope."
And gotcha politics doesn't seem Obama's game.
"If he goes negative, there is a possibility that it might even hurt him," said
Costas Panagopoulos, of the Campaigns Management program at Fordham
University.
Barack Obama
Democratic presidential hopeful Illinois Senator Barack Obama speaks to voters
at a town hall meeting 08 November 2007 in Ottumwa, Iowa. He has the
charisma, legions of adoring young supporters and a bulging campaign war
chest, but time is running short for Obama to catch 2008 White House rival
Hillary Clinton.
Barack Obama speaks to voters in Iowa
Illinois Senator and Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama speaks to
voters at a town hall meeting in the Skate Pit roller skating rink, 08 November
2007 in Knoxville, Iowa. He has the charisma, legions of adoring young
supporters and a bulging campaign war chest, but time is running short for
Obama to catch 2008 White House rival Hillary Clinton.
Supporters of US Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Barack Obama
Supporters of US Democratic presidential hopeful Senator Barack Obama hold
up signs during the Jefferson Jackson dinner, 10 November 2007 in Des Moines,
Iowa. He has the charisma, legions of adoring young supporters and a bulging
campaign war chest, but time is running short for Obama to catch 2008 White
House rival Hillary Clinton.
Barack Obama
Illinois Senator Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama stands in front of
his campaign logo as he waits to be introduced at a town hall meeting, 07
November 2007 in Fort Madison, Iowa. He has the charisma, legions of adoring
young supporters and a bulging campaign war chest, but time is running short for
Obama to catch 2008 White House rival Hillary Clinton.
Barack Obama
Democratic Presidential hopeful Senator Barack Obama greets voters after a
town hall meeting, 08 November 2007 in Fairfield, Iowa. He has the charisma,
legions of adoring young supporters and a bulging campaign war chest, but time
is running short for Obama to catch 2008 White House rival Hillary Clinton.