Iowa Farmer Today
11-14-07
Changing Climate
By Hannah Fletcher, Iowa Farmer Today
LACONA --- After decades of farming, Paul Miller remembers vividly wild weather changes that cover the spectrum.
“As far as climate is concerned, I have seen hot and I have seen cold,” says the
94-yearold. “There’s no two years alike.”
Recent concerns about climate change go in one ear and out the other for a farmer who has experienced the extremes through several decades of farming in
South Central Iowa.
Miller has heard it all before.
The winter of 1936-37 brought severe snow storms and people worried the world was cooling, he says.
“I mean, it was a real blizzard. They were saying ice age,” he says.
Several weather events dot his memories. He crouched with his young sons as a tornado tore across their farm. A wet spring kept him out of the fields until July 6 in 1947. And, several hot summers and harsh winters are not-so-distant recollections.
Miller has noticed mild winters in recent years, but that doesn’t mean a winter like the one he remembers from 1936 won’t return.
“I’ll be amazed if you don’t see bad winters again,” he says.
But, climate change has been a growing concern.
For their collaborative work on global climate change, former Vice President Al
Gore and members of a United Nations panel, the International Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), shared this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.
The IPCC released a series of reports about climate change this year, including a
February report which concluded climate change is “unequivocal,” and global warming since 1950 is caused by humans.

But, as international researchers and media increasingly discuss rising sea levels and threatened polar bears, the potential effects on agriculture, which is reliant on climate, is mentioned with much less frequency.
It may be hard for farmers to understand why climate change in the next 100 years should be of concern, but there are some implications for the immediate future, says Gene Takle, climate researcher and Iowa State University geological and atmospheric sciences and agronomy professor.
Takle has been documenting Midwestern weather patterns since 1975, and he is part of an international group that uses computer models to predict potential climate changes.
“There are some impacts that we may see as we move into the next 50 years or even the next 5-
10 years,” he notes.
Takle says the ISU research team has observed some trends:
=Annual precipitation has increased by about an inch over the past 30 years.
=More of that precipitation is happening in extreme weather events.
In other words, Takle said, there are more frequent 3-inch rains as opposed to 2inch rains than there were 30 years ago. And, more rain in accumulating as result of one event.
=Winter low temperatures ar en’t as cold. That means there are about eight more frost-free days now than there were in the 1950s resulting in a longer growing season.
= The summer heat isn’t as intense as it was 30 years ago, but humidity levels are rising.
Not all these findings a re all “doom and gloom,” Takle adds.
“In the short run, these may be favorable for agriculture.”
Others will be something to watch, he says, noting increased precipitation events could increase flooding, and increased humidity and lengthy summers may raise plant pathogen or disease concerns.
Although research is ongoing, Takle says these predictions are worth attention.
“The evidence is just so overwhelming, it is something we have to pay attention to,” he says.

Takle reminds the public that scientists look at data with unbiased eyes.
“We relish the idea that new data would come along and show us something else or even turn the current data on its head,” he says.
As scientists further their research, Takle says they keep farmers in mind.
“A wet spring can have a huge impact on the farmers. So maybe some impacts, more than others, are of concern,” says Takle, who grew up on a farm in southwest Minnesota.
“We need to be hearing what their issues are.”
Farmers are affected by climate change more than any other group, says Elwynn
Taylor, ISU agronomy professor and Extension climatologist.
“I tell people there is no bigger effect on anyone but the farmer,” he says. “Our livelihood depends on the plants. The whole wealth of the state is in farming.”
Tayl or’s research has found climate change already is affecting farmers, yields and, consequently, the local economy.
He says it has been documented the weather is becoming more erratic and, therefore, is costing farmers.
Taylor has charted yields since 1900. He charted what yields should trend in relation to yield improvements and compares it to the actual data.
Although yields are increasing as a whole, bad years have caused yields to fall
17 bushels per year below the trend line.
“Weather is more extreme,” Taylor says.
“The bad years are when the yields are below the line. And, the bad years hurt more than the good years help.”
“Global warming took one-half billion dollars. That’s what global warming is costing us,” he says.
While farmers are perhaps most affected by changes in the Midwest, they also have an opportunity to make a difference in warding off future changes, Taylor says.
“The root of the problem is energy,” he says.

Taylor says modern lifestyles are fixed with the use of fossil fuels, such as oil, coal and natural gas, which contribute to CO2 emissions that scientist blamed for increases in global warming.
“We need to reduce the fossil fuel consumption to the rate it is produced,” he says.
They may seem daunting, but Taylor believes there have been huge strides in reduced energy use, specifically from farmers.
“No one exceeds Iowa right now in biofuels. There is also increased interest in wind energy and solar opportunities, and these are showing up on the farms and are often owned by fa rmers,” he says.
“Of course, they want to make money at it. But, I think it is wonderful that they want to do the right thing.”
Taylor says the solution is easy to say and hard to do, but Iowa is leading the way.
“Iowa does better than any other place in the world, as far as I am concerned.
We are the leaders in the doing things to correct this,” he says.
Eric Boehm, has the next generation in mind when he talks adjusting for climate change.
He enrolled 23 acres in wetland reserve programs after flooding devastated surrounding cropland in Fayette County.
“We moved here in 1974 and as the years went by, we noticed more and more flooding,” he says.
“Up until the mid-’80s, we didn’t seem to suffer from high water. ’99 just killed us. It just ruined this farm.”
Despite advice from knowledgeable friends suggesting he keep the land as is, he was happy with his decision when another major storm flooded Brush Creek again in 2004.
“We called it a 100-year flood at the time (in 1999), maybe even a 500-year flood.
Then in 2004, we had another one,” he says.
“I am not a climatologist. I don’t know if the storms are getting more severe, but they sure seem to be.”

Boehm suspects increased severity of storms coupled with changes in land practices in the watershed could be the culprit.
But, when it comes to making land practices and lifestyle adjustments, he keeps the next generation in mind.
“When you have kids, it changes everything,” says Boehm, a father of three.
“What are we going to leave for our kids?”