Campaigns and Elections
10-23-07
AARP Forum Gives McCain and Huckabee Chance to benefit
By, Justin Schardin
The stage this Thursday in Sioux City will have a lot fewer Republicans per square inch than the AARP would have liked. The group's Divided We Fail
Republican presidential forum on health and financial security has been scaled back from a nationally-televised debate to a town hall format with more limited media reach. That's because it's hard to get a good read on the field when only two candidates show up.
Those two would be U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Arkansas
Gov. Mike Huckabee. Other campaigns cited scheduling conflicts, and several have said they can only participate in so many debates, the last of which was held two days ago in Florida.
Mike Huckabee
That leaves three of the top four in the Republican field elsewhere, whereas five of the top six Democratic candidates attended the AARP's companion forum in
September. It fits a now two-month-old trend of Democrats spending much more time in the state than their GOP counterparts.
"Republicans and Democrats are really running different strategies," said
University of Iowa professor Tim Hagle. "For Democrats, a lot of them, Iowa's make or break. They figure if they don't come out of Iowa in the top three or four, they're done... The Republicans are seeing it a little bit differently. They're seeing it a little more long-term."
In other words, Iowa's definitely something, but not everything.
The divide was sealed with the pledge signed by Democrats to not campaign in states that leapfrogged the party's prescribed primary system. Republicans took no such pledge and have been actively campaigning in Michigan and Florida, two large states Democrats have avoided except for fundraising purposes.
Should GOP candidates have signed a similar pledge, or have Democrats unnecessarily put themselves into an early-state box? Iowa State University professor Steffen Schmidt said it's not yet clear, but so far, Republicans haven't been hurt by their stance.

"I haven't heard that Republicans in Iowa are threatening repercussions the way the Democrats have. I guess in my own mind, [the Republicans' is] a better strategy for a party."
John McCain
To some extent, the race for money is forcing hands. U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton,
D-N.Y., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., as of Oct. 1 had between them more than $20 million more cash on hand than all other rivals in both parties combined.
"When you don't have enough ammunition, you need to decide when you're going to shoot," said Schmidt. And since Democrats have generally raised more cash, Republicans need to spend more time fundraising, and more carefully choose their battles.
The AARP forum is a battle Huckabee and McCain obviously have chosen. Jon
Seaton, McCain's Iowa state director, said in Friday statement that either other candidates' "health care plans cannot withstand the glare of the Orpheum
Theatre's lights, or they fear the scrutiny of northwest Iowa voters."
It's typical political rhetoric, but Schmidt said it holds some merit since
Republicans' positions on senior issues tend not to be as popular. "What [is] the
AARP going to ask? Are Republicans interested in being asked those questions in public?" he said.
Both professors said Huckabee and McCain each stand to gain from their attendance. Schmidt said the forum's audience that will likely include many older veterans is a good group for McCain. Hagle added that McCain's simply spending extra time in the state helps Iowa GOPers forgive and forget his skipping of the 2000 caucuses.
Both also agreed Huckabee can use it to continue his forward momentum. "If he starts picking up even more here in Iowa, people are seriously saying he could be the surge candidate here," Schmidt said. "In a year when people aren't really sure exactly who they want, this is the kind of year they might take another look at someone like Huckabee."
There is the possibility of one other interesting, indirect effect. Pundits consider independents likely to trend Democratic in the upcoming election because of their general dissatisfaction with President George W. Bush and Republicans. If
Democrats continue to spend more resources here, Schmidt thinks it could make the trend more pronounced.
He said he thought the effect would probably be small, and if anything a boost for
Obama, who is relatively popular among independents. But as many have said, in a close race, small differences can add up.