Campaigns and Elections
09-06-07
Thompson Has Catching Up to Do in Iowa
By - Justin Schardin
Fred Thompson
Ever since former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, R - Tenn., became a glimmer in
Republican presidential voters' eyes earlier this year, his poll numbers have put
him among the first tier of GOP candidates. With his official candidacy
announced today, he will need to make up for lost time and effort to win in Iowa.
"Whether he waited too long [to announce] my guess is we'll know in about three
weeks," said Drake University political science professor Arthur Sanders. "I think
that it takes time to put together an organization in Iowa."
Thompson has spent the last months building national and Iowa organizations,
raising money, and campaigning. Polls have generally shown him in the top three
in the state, but well behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
How important would Iowa be for the Thompson campaign? He chose to skip
campaigning at the Ames Straw Poll along with former New York Mayor Rudy
Giuliani and U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and ended up with both men
near last place. However, Thompson also is spending all or part of his first three
days as an official candidate in Iowa, and is hiring staff in state.
Iowa State University political science professor Jim Hutter believes
momentum built in Iowa is important. "We've had a number of candidates over a
number of years who have you might say danced around coming into Iowa, but
not actually doing it, or leaving early... And the result has been that these
candidates...not only don't do well in Iowa but don't end up winning the
nomination."
Sanders said people should look for "how quickly he can get people to come on
board and begin building an organization" as key indicators of his potential Iowa
success.
"I think there are some people hoping that this will give them a place to go, but
he'll obviously be playing catch-up," said Sanders. "If you jump in like this and
you don't start showing some momentum quickly, then the money sources are
just going to start to drop out."
Republican political consultant Robert Haus of Des Moines has just signed on as
executive director of Thompson's Iowa campaign, and said the former senator
could play well in Iowa, especially because he thinks voters here will respond
well to his message of unity. "[Iowans] want to hear someone who is optimistic
about the future, who knows the work will be hard, but won't shirk from the
responsibility to go do it."
Sanders said it was hard to tell how Iowa voters would respond but that "the
surveys where they include him as a choice indicate that he's got some potential
support here. You look at his record he's a solid, traditional conservative
Republican, which resonates well with the Republican Party here. You've got
name recognition, and people know who he is and so that helps. So I think he
has potential."
Haus said having waited so long to announce has costs. "[T]he one unfortunate
part of campaigns is you never get to put more time on the clock. The election is
when the election is, and you don't get to push it back because you're not
prepared."
Sanders agreed that last deserves noting, and said a central worry for a
candidate that waits is that some GOP activists are already committed.
"Presumably when he announces he's expecting some undecided people at this
point, but also some people who are already working for someone else to maybe
jump ship. You don't see an awful lot of that. He's got a lot more work to do."
According to Sanders, the same holds true to an extent for voters if one
candidate is seen as being clearly out front. "And that hasn't happened yet. I
think that Romney is hoping that here in Iowa that he can begin to make that
happen, begin to make people think that Romney is going to win here in Iowa,
he's got it settled and there's nothing Fred Thompson can do about it... I don't
think it's happened yet, but I think that he'd better be careful."
According to Sanders, Thompson has been more hurt by waiting, and recent
insider reports of problems with the campaign's management and
communications, than other candidates might be because of his reputation.
"I've read the same reports, so it makes you think it might be an issue, especially
given the kinds of concerns people expressed about him as a candidate when his
name first surfaced," he said. "What were the questions people had? Would he
work hard enough to [make a serious run]? That was clearly one of the things
people were worried about at the start."
He continued, "Whether it's true or not, part of the problem is that when people
have a particular perception of you, they interpret everything in light of that."
Justin Schardin can be reached at jschardin@politicsiowa.com