Bloomberg
08-10-07
Primary Shifts Complicate Leading Candidates' Plans (Update1)
By Kristin Jensen
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The 2008 presidential campaign strategists must be as
wily as chess masters in allocating resources with front-loaded primaries and an
ever-changing calendar. It got more complicated today as South Carolina
Republicans moved up their balloting, making December voting elsewhere a
possibility.
The Republican Party in South Carolina announced it will move its primary to
Jan. 19 to protect its first-in-the-South status after Florida advanced. The next
moves may be in New Hampshire and Iowa where state laws require nominating
contests to come first. A number of other contests could be affected, creating
genuine calendar chaos. Already, California, New York and other states with
troves of convention delegates and expensive media markets have advanced
their primaries to Feb. 5.
This compressed early schedule means ``you have to work harder than you ever
have worked in your life,'' said Howard Wolfson, a top adviser to Democratic
frontrunner Hillary Clinton. ``You've got to do everything you can to meet as
many people as possible.''
The still-evolving calendar will require tough choices even for candidates with
plenty of cash, such as New York Senator Clinton, her main Democratic
competitor Barack Obama and Republicans Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. With
some candidates likely to spend $7 million to $15 million in Iowa alone, they will
be forced to calibrate budgets for as many as 23 other states that may hold
contests by Feb. 5, much earlier than ever before.
`Incredibly Expensive'
Clinton, 59, with about $33 million on hand and the benefit of broad name
recognition from eight years as first lady, so far is the only leading candidate who
hasn't aired any television and radio ads. That will change; she solicited
donations in May, saying the advertising needed is ``incredibly expensive.''
Obama, 46, an Illinois senator, bought ads in early states to increase his name
recognition. He had $34 million available at the end of the second quarter and
plans to make significant media buys in Iowa, New Hampshire and South
Carolina in the next few months, a campaign adviser said.
Giuliani, 63, the Republican frontrunner nationally, has about half as much cash
on hand as Clinton and Obama and is putting resources into some of the bigger
states.
Giuliani's Strategy
The former New York mayor had Florida atop his travel schedule with 13 visits
there this year. He has made eight trips each to South Carolina and California.
He started airing radio ads in Iowa and New Hampshire last month and has
made eight forays into New Hampshire and seven into Iowa, including a four- day
visit this week. He must decide whether to go all-out in Iowa and New
Hampshire, where he now trails Romney, or to save more money for the bigger
contests a few weeks later.
``It is crucial for candidates to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire and
simultaneously be out of the starting gate for the Feb. 5 super event,'' said
Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University in
Ames, Iowa.
Romney, 60, is adopting that strategy. With $12 million in campaign cash and a
personal fortune of as much as $250 million, the former Massachusetts governor
is investing heavily in advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire months before the
first vote.
Some of the consequences already are evident. Arizona Senator John McCain,
70, started out as the Republican front- runner and ran through his money
building a national campaign. Then the fund-raising coffers ran dry. Romney,
fourth in national polls, leads in Iowa and New Hampshire thanks to his spending.
Edwards, Richardson
Less well-funded candidates, such as Democrats John Edwards and New
Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and probable Republican contender Fred
Thompson, are making different calculations.
Edwards and Richardson are betting almost exclusively on single contests -- the
Iowa caucuses for Edwards and the scheduled Jan. 19 Nevada caucuses for
Richardson -- to give them momentum.
By placing his chips on Iowa, where he finished second in 2004, Edwards, 54,
has made the Democratic race there a three-way competition with Clinton and
Obama.
On the Republican side, former Tennessee Senator Thompson, who is expected
to announce after Labor Day, must decide whether he is going to compete in the
early Iowa and New Hampshire contests.
Florida's move of its primary to Jan. 29 triggered the most immediate challenge
for strategists.
South Carolina
South Carolina was supposed to have a lock on the first southern U.S. primary
and Democrats plan to vote in the state on Jan. 29. South Carolina's Republican
Party chairman, Katon Dawson, announced in New Hampshire today the new
schedule for his party's contest.
New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who attended the
announcement, didn't say what change might be in store for voters there. Under
state law, New Hampshire's primary must be seven days before any other. New
Hampshire, which traditionally holds its contest on a Tuesday, now may hold its
primary on Jan. 8.
As New Hampshire goes, so goes Iowa. State law there dictates holding the
caucuses eight days ahead of any other state. That could move the first-in-thenation Iowa caucuses to December 2007.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington at
kjensen@bloomberg.net