TheDay, CT
08-05-07
Iowa Straw Vote Could Narrow Presidential GOP Field
By Dick Ahles
You probably hadn't even noticed but it's almost time for the historic Iowa
Republican Straw Vote.
The straw vote is historic because the last time the Iowa Republican Party
sponsored the vote in 1999, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush won and went on
to bigger things. But this time, three prominent candidates are opting out and the
Iowa Republicans are left with what some might see as mostly turkeys in their
straw vote.
This year's contest on Aug. 11 will be without Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and
Fred Thompson, leaving only one big time candidate, Mitt Romney, and a field of
also rans like the ever popular Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo,
Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, John Cox and Tommy “not Fred” Thompson.
Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson, who are not taking part, will have their
names on the ballot but Iowa Republicans don't like it when candidates fail to
make personal appearances and they aren't expected to be a factor. They are
not participating because Thompson hasn't announced and therefore can't win or
lose, Giuliani figures he's not an Iowa kind of Republican and doesn't want to
waste the money and McCain has no money to waste and figures Iowa
Republicans may remember he called the straw vote a scam the last time.
The straw vote was first held in 1979 as a fund raiser for the state's Republican
Party and that remains its main purpose but it claims, with some justification, to
be good at predicting the winner of the first in the nation Republican Iowa
caucus. (Iowa's Democrats do not have a straw vote.)
A good indicator
The winner of three of the four straw votes held since 1979, George H.W. Bush,
Bob Dole and George W. Bush, also won the Iowa caucus. The only other time
the Iowa Republicans held a straw vote was in 1987 and the television evangelist
Pat Robertson won, but the Iowa Republicans don't talk much about that. (Straw
votes were not held when Republican incumbents like Reagan and Bush I and II
were seeking second terms.)
In addition to once having been won by Pat Robertson, the Iowa straw vote is
weird in other ways.
It is always won by the candidate who spends the most money or almost the
most money. This is because candidates are allowed to bus supporters to the
voting site at Iowa State University in Ames, ply them with refreshments and
entertainment and even pay their $35 entry fee, up from $25 four years ago.
Participants have to prove they're Iowa residents but they don't have to be
registered voters. Until 1999, there was no residency requirement and
candidates were caught flying in ringers from other states, which may account for
Pat Robertson's shocking showing in '87.
In 1999, magazine mogul Steve Forbes spent about $2 million to come in second
to Bush, whose campaign never did say how much they spent. It was reported
that Bush splurged $43,000 to put up his tent next to the polling place entrance
while Forbes cleverly camped next to Bush for just $8,000 in what was described
as a colossal, air-conditioned tent with French doors and Debby Boone providing
the entertainment. Orrin Hatch had Vic Damone singing in his tent but Hatch
finished ninth and dropped out after the straw vote.
One of the virtues of the vote is its tendency to narrow the field. David Yepsen of
the Des Moines Register, who becomes a famous political reporter every four
years and then goes back to covering Iowa politics the rest of the time, has had
to work hard to find significance in this year's field.
“A noteworthy skirmish between Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and former
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is developing for the votes of GOP social
conservatives,” Yepsen wrote July 24. “Also, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy
Thompson campaigns incessantly in Iowa but doesn't appear to be breaking out.
Huckabee, Brownback or Thomspon could be knocked from the contest as a
result of poor showings.”
The term straw vote, by the way, comes from 17th century English legal scholar
John Seldon, who wrote, “A straw, thrown up in the air, will show how the wind
sits, which cannot be learned by casting up a stone.”
The casting of stones will come in due course.
Dick Ahles is a retired journalist from Simsbury. E-mail him at
dahles@hotmail.com