Campaigns and Election Magazine
07-19-07
For GOP, State Races May be Biggest Casualty of a Smaller Ames Straw Poll
Justin Schardin, Jul 19, 2007
Last month’s decisions by the Rudy Giuliani and John McCain campaigns to not
actively compete in the Ames Straw Poll may significantly affect the 2008
presidential race, but the impact could be strongest on state races in Iowa.
Proponents call Ames an early test of campaign support and organization, but
the straw poll is first and foremost a fundraiser for the state Republican Party.
And what a fundraiser it has been of late. Republican Party of Iowa (RPI)
Executive Director Chuck Laudner says the 1999 event netted approximately $1
million.
The state GOP spent than $200,000 of that money in each of the 2000, 2002 and
2004 election cycles, according to former state Republican Party chairman
Chuck Larson. The money went almost exclusively for state legislative races. In a
state with closely drawn partisan lines, that can mean a great deal.
“The parties are basically even in the state,” said Jim Hutter, a political science
professor at Iowa State University. “If you have a party with a million dollars
[extra] they can spend over three election cycles, it’s a huge advantage,”
especially in close elections.
A number of potentially close legislative races are shaping up for 2008. Carrie
Giddins, Iowa Democratic Party Communications Director, said that Democrats
will focus first on building a strong incumbency protection program, followed by
targeting open seats and Republican seats in Democratic-leaning districts.
In the House, Democrats plan to concentrate on District 21’s Tami Wiencek, who
in 2006 won her first term in a majority Democratic district by 298 votes, while
Republican targets will include District 84’s Elesha Gayman, an upset winner by
273 votes in 2006, and District 9’s McKinley Bailey, who won by 397 votes.
State Senate races to watch include District 16, where Democrat Tom Hancock
won a 2004 victory of 122 votes, and Democratic-leaning District 22, where
Republican Larry McKibben’s 2004 margin was 787.
Extra money can make or break races like these.
Straw poll funds from 1999 gave Republican legislative candidates a huge assist,
according to Iowa state House Minority Leader Christopher Rants. “I think it was
very significant,” he said. “It was the money we held in reserve, held late and
went in to make a difference in races.”
He declined to cite specific races, but close Republican races recently include
state Rep. Leigh Rekow’s race in the 32nd District race in 2000 (won with 195
votes) and Sen. Richard Drake’s race in the 40th District in 2002 (won with 310
votes).
Hutter said straw poll money is “a very effective way for state Republicans to win
elections; they don’t use it for anything else.”
However, with two front-running campaigns stepping back, the straw poll may not
be as well-attended or profitable as eight years ago. RPI projections before the
McCain and Giuliani announcements were for 50,000 attendees, or 25 percent
more than in 1999.
That number now looks a little high, concedes Mary Tiffany, the state GOP
Communications director Mary Tiffany. But, she says, it’s “safe to say 40,000 [will
attend], and we’re hoping for between 40,000 and 50,000.”
Campaigns pay a minimum of $15,000 each for tent space outside the event.
And ticket prices this year increased from $25 to $35. So even 40,000 attendees
would still bring in more than $1.5 million before expenses. But are such
numbers realistic?
Iowa University’s Political Science Associate Professor David Redlawsk thinks
they may be. “It’s hard to know now what attendance will be. [Probably] more
than 30,000 people even without Giuliani and McCain, and I’d be surprised if they
didn’t have similar numbers [to 1999] because general interest is up this time
around.”
The party is hoping people will still come in droves because this year’s straw poll
will feature a greater variety of things to do than any of the previous five events.
This year, Tiffany says, will be “more like a state fair, a huge Republican event
for the state.”
That’s because in addition to presidential candidates, the party is planning to
welcome Newt Gingrich, National Rifle Association CEO Wayne LaPierre, talk
show host Neal Boortz, musician Michael W. Smith, and a variety of interest
groups. Such events were planned before the Giuliani and McCain
announcements.
Predictions of greater interest are also supported by other ingredients not present
in 1999, such as a wide-open presidential field and a Statehouse in Democratic
hands. But Republican fundraising nationwide has been down due to disaffection
with the direction of the national GOP. There are some similar signs in Iowa, too.
According to former state Republican finance chairwoman Diane Crookham
Johnson, “…as a donor it hasn’t been nearly as expensive a year for me,
because it’s just hard to find things to get excited about to support. That’s the
same thing I’m hearing from other donors.”
Rants is seeing the same thing, but says the fundraising universe is a little more
complicated than that this cycle.
“When I walk into somebody’s office, I’m going to sit through a good 15 minutes
of why they’re mad at Washington,” he said. “But the agenda the [Iowa]
Democrats have pushed have made the business community realize what’s at
stake. … In a way, George Bush is my biggest problem and [Democratic Gov.]
Chet Culver is my biggest ally.”
In 2006, Democrats in Iowa took control of the governor’s mansion, Senate and
House for the first time in 40 years. It’s unclear whether extra funds would have
changed Republican fortunes in the last election, but it would surely not have hurt
them.
Rants seemed to voice a consensus opinion when he said, “I still think we’ll have
a good event and raise a lot of money, but with more [presidential] candidates
participating, obviously we [would] raise more.”