Des Moines Register, IA
06-18-07
Straw poll no-shows zap Iowa's relevance, some fear
Snubbing the state GOP's fundraiser stings, but the caucuses remain a priority,
observers say.
By THOMAS BEAUMONT
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
In the course of a week, the Ames straw poll went from a closely watched early
test of the Republican presidential campaigns in the leadoff caucus state to a
face-off between mostly lesser-known candidates.
Decisions by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to skip the high-profile
Iowa Republican Party fundraising event and by Arizona Sen. John McCain to
abandon his plans to compete in the straw poll could signal the end of the midAugust event's relevance.
And that could reduce the amount of money the state GOP will have for its
campaigns next year.
The decisions by Giuliani and McCain, who rank among the leaders in national
and Iowa polls, have also prompted questions about whether Iowa's influential
role setting the tone for the presidential nominating campaign is slipping.
State GOP officials are awaiting word from former Tennessee Sen. Fred
Thompson, perhaps coming as early as this week, on whether he will take part in
the straw poll. That could help restore the event's prestige, should he decide to
participate.
Thompson is taking steps toward an official run, but he has not declared an
official candidacy.
In past campaigns, the straw poll gave candidates a chance to demonstrate they
were viable at a time when only an elite few party activists were focused on the
race.
But the 2008 campaign has rapidly accelerated - partly because there's not an
incumbent candidate and because of the concentration of caucuses and primary
elections in the early part of the nominating schedule. That has already given
candidates chances to prove themselves, some national observers and neutral
GOP strategists say.
"So candidate organizations, like Giuliani and McCain, already have sort of been
certified and can take or leave events like the Ames straw poll," said Charles
Jones, a senior political scholar with the Brookings Institution.
The huge bloc of big-state primaries on the calendar right after the caucuses scheduled for Jan. 14 - may have influenced Giuliani and McCain to avoid the
straw poll's costly preparations.
However, the caucuses themselves remain the outsized priority of the early
nominating season, observers say.
"It's fair to argue Iowa has increased in relevance because of the condensed
primary process," Sara Taylor, a former strategist for President Bush, said,
referring to the 20-plus states whose primaries are within three weeks of the
caucuses.
The straw poll, scheduled for Aug. 11 at Iowa State University, has become a
high-profile pre-caucus tradition, although the first one, in 1979, was a low-key
affair.
The event grew in popularity and strategic significance in 1987, 1995 and 1999,
attracting the most attention eight years ago when 23,000 people voted at Hilton
Coliseum.
That year the straw poll stamped its winner - Texas' then-Gov. George W. Bush the Iowa front-runner and forced Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole and Dan
Quayle out of the race for the GOP nomination.
Giuliani's and McCain's decisions to opt out disappointed the straw poll's
planners, who were hoping a record 50,000 people would attend.
All of the candidates with active Iowa campaigns will be listed on the ballots in
the straw poll's voting machines.
Giuliani's top advisers said that instead of spending the estimated $3 million he
would have budgeted for straw poll preparations, he can use that money to
cultivate support for the caucuses.
McCain's aides said their reason for opting out was that Giuliani's absence meant
the event would "not be a meaningful test."
Their decisions threaten the main source of income for a state GOP that is
reeling from a Democratic sweep in Statehouse and gubernatorial elections last
year.
"This is a huge blow to the straw poll and to the Iowa GOP," University of Iowa
political science professor Peverill Squire said.
The no-shows translate into perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars the state
party was counting on to contribute to legislative races next year.
In 1999, Bush paid the party $63,000 for a prime spot to pitch his tent. The
bidding this year begins at $15,000 for any of the eight GOP candidates planning
to attend who want space.
Among candidate participants, only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is
expected to have the money to pull out all the stops in Ames.
Romney has recently finished first in two polls in Iowa and has bet heavily on a
strong showing in Ames, although he remains in fourth place among GOP
prospects in most national polls.
The other seven candidates planning to attend the straw poll are lesser known:
Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback; Chicago businessman John Cox; former
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter of California, Ron
Paul of Texas and Tom Tancredo of Colorado; and former Wisconsin Gov.
Tommy Thompson.
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore followed McCain and Giuliani in deciding not to
compete in Ames.
Their absence also means they will not be buying blocks of thousands of the $30
tickets to hand out to their supporters. Critics have said the straw poll is more of
a pageant than a real gauge of support.
Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, minimized
the effect of the decisions, although the party has scaled back its attendance
forecast.
The party has been trying to promote this year's event to the general public, and
has also lined up interest groups, such as the National Rifle Association, which
are also paying for space around Hilton.
Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, weighing a presidential bid, also
plans to attend, while television news networks including ABC, CBS, Fox News
Channel, CNN, NBC and MSNBC have committed to covering the event, state
party officials said.
"As far as the bottom line, no, it doesn't really affect it," said Laudner.
Other GOP activists in Iowa say the damage could signal bad news for the party,
and perhaps the end of the straw poll's prominence.
"It's a signal for the Iowa Republican Party to say we can't hold together our
largest fundraiser," said former state GOP finance chairwoman Diane Crookham
Johnson of Oskaloosa. "I think Fred Thompson is going to be a big signal. If he
decides he doesn't need to be in it, it's probably the end of it."
Iowa has had disproportionate access to the vast majority of candidates for
president as a result of its preciously guarded role hosting the leadoff nominating
caucuses. It also has become a training ground for political campaign workers
who have gone on to work at the highest levels of politics and government.
Giuliani and McCain have said they are committed to campaigning for the
caucuses, after Giuliani weighed not competing in Iowa and McCain famously
bypassed the state during his 2000 presidential campaign.
McCain has been to Iowa seven times this year, and four times to California, a
key fundraising state that has moved its primary to Feb. 5.
Giuliani has said he plans to win the caucuses while focusing on California and
other key states that are planning to hold their primaries on or before Feb. 5. He
has made three campaign trips to Iowa - the least amount among the betterknown GOP candidates - and he plans to return Wednesday. He has traveled six
times each to California and Florida, which is set to hold its primary Jan. 29.
Nine GOP candidates were confirmed for the first Iowa debate, planned for about
a week before the straw poll.
Only McCain and Fred Thompson had not yet responded to the invitations from
ABC to attend the nationally televised debate, scheduled for Aug. 5 in Des
Moines.
"As long as there are enough candidates left to have winners and losers in
January ... Iowa will continue to have a special place," said Princeton University
political science professor Larry Bartels.