New York Times, NY
06-07-07
Giuliani and McCain to Skip Straw Poll in Iowa
By MARC SANTORA
NEW CASTLE, N.H., June 6 — Bucking a ritual for Republican presidential
candidates, Rudolph W. Giuliani and Senator John McCain announced
Wednesday that they would skip participation in what has been a significant early
test of candidate strength, the straw poll in Ames, Iowa, this summer.
Their decision was the clearest indication of how much the changing primary
calendar is upending presidential politics this year, as candidates grapple with
the prospect of huge primaries in crucial states like Florida on Jan. 29 and
California, New York and Texas a week later.
Both campaigns said they would still compete in the Iowa caucuses, scheduled
for January. But the Giuliani campaign cited the high cost of participating in the
poll, which they estimated at $3 million, as the reason for pulling out. Hours later,
the McCain campaign followed suit, raising the prospect that the event would
lose its import in the road to the nomination.
“This type of campaign has never been waged before,” said Michael DuHaime,
the Giuliani campaign manager. Mr. DuHaime said the need to spend in states
like Florida and California was forcing the campaign to make tough choices about
where to allocate resources.
Terry Nelson, Mr. McCain’s campaign manager, said the senator, of Arizona, still
intended to compete vigorously in the caucuses.
Mitt Romney, who lags far behind Mr. Giuliani in national polls but is doing well in
polls in Iowa, will still participate in the straw poll, hoping to use a strong showing
both there and in the caucus to propel his candidacy in the primaries that follow.
The Ames straw poll started in 1979, initially conceived as a way to raise money
for the caucuses. It has been criticized as a poor test of support because the
candidates essentially buy the tickets for the attendees who do the voting.
Campaigns are expected to buy thousands of $30 tickets for supporters, provide
them transportation and then pamper them during the carnival-like event, which
is scheduled to be held on Aug. 11 at Iowa State University.
George W. Bush used a straw poll victory in 1999 as evidence of his campaign’s
legitimacy and strength. The poll has also proved important in helping thin out the
field, with lesser-known candidates who perform poorly dropping out of the race.
Mr. McCain’s decision to bypass the poll took Iowa Republican Party officials by
surprise, because he has been competing aggressively in the state. But party
officials said they still intended to hold the event and that the developments did
not lessen the importance of the Iowa caucuses, which are tentatively scheduled
for Jan. 20, but could be held even earlier as other states move up their
primaries.
Mr. Giuliani’s announcement irritated some Iowa Republicans, who for nearly
three decades have jealously guarded their tradition of opening the nation’s race
for the White House. But it also underscored the reality that advisers to Mr.
Giuliani believe that his best prospects for winning the nomination could rest in
appealing to moderate voters in the crush of primaries in California, Florida and
New York, which will require costly advertising campaigns.
The 2008 political calendar has already been far from orderly, although the basic
rituals of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina as early testing grounds
have remained. But the decision by Mr. Giuliani, who currently leads in many
polls, to downscale in Iowa could have wider repercussions.
His advisers insisted Wednesday that they were in Iowa to win and took great
care to explain the decision to bypass the straw poll. First, campaign officials
disclosed the news to The Des Moines Register. Then, other Iowa reporters were
invited to participate in a conference call with a senior adviser to Mr. Giuliani,
former Representative Jim Nussle of Iowa, who ran unsuccessfully for governor
last year.
“The straw poll actually could in fact take away Iowa’s significance, if we’re not
careful,” Mr. Nussle told reporters. “It’s not a serious event in the grand scheme
of picking a nominee. And at this time in our history, with the war on terror and
economic challenges facing our country, we need to have a serious conversation
about our nominee and not just have, you know, these kind of fund-raising straw
polls.”
While Ames has at times been a good barometer, it has also been notably
wrong, like in 1995 when Phil Gramm of Texas invested large sums of money
and tied for first there, only to see his campaign fizzle.
Steffen W. Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State
University, said that the importance of the Iowa straw poll appeared to be
fading. While the caucuses will remain important to candidates, Mr. Schmidt said,
the compressed schedule does not allow the luxury of spending so much money
in one place in August.
“It’s kind of a phony event,” he said. “It diverts energy and resources from the
bigger states. It’s a metaphor for the entire way the race is going.”
The Romney campaign, which has already spent hundreds of thousands of
dollars advertising in the state and reaffirmed its decision to take part in the straw
poll, was quick to criticize the decisions to pull out.
Christopher Rants, the Iowa House Republican leader who is an adviser to the
Romney campaign, said, “It sure looks to me that Giuliani is trying to avoid
having to compete for conservative votes.”
The Giuliani campaign, hoping to reassure Iowa voters, announced that it would
open its official campaign headquarters in the state on Thursday. Mr. Giuliani,
however, will not be there. He is campaigning in Michigan that day, before
heading off for events in Washington, D.C.; Missouri; and California.
Michael Luo contributed reporting from New York, and Jeff Zeleny from Des
Moines.