Des Moines Register
01-28-07
Iowa Poll: Most think U.S. ready for black or woman president
A majority of Iowans believe the nation is ready for an African-American; only 40
percent say the same for a Hispanic.
By JONATHAN ROOS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Is the country ready to send a black or female candidate to the White House? A
majority of Iowans think so. How about a Hispanic? Not yet.
A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows two-thirds of the state's adults
believe the nation is ready for an African-American president in 2008.
A smaller majority - 55 percent - says the American electorate is open to
choosing a woman. But just 40 percent believe the country is ready for a
president who is Hispanic.
The poll of 800 Iowa adults was taken over four days last week. The margin of
error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Iowa results for a female candidate are consistent with recent national polls
by CBS News and Newsweek.
The Iowa results for a black candidate are higher by 12 to 13 percentage points
than those national surveys.
Political experts say the Iowa Poll's findings are at least partly a reflection of
Iowans' feelings about two prominent Democrats who could be on the ballot in
2008. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York made her first trip to Iowa this weekend to
seek support in the state's nominating party caucuses a year from now. Sen.
Barack Obama of Illinois, a biracial Harvard-educated lawyer, is also gearing up
a campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination.
New Mexico's Bill Richardson, the nation's first Hispanic governor, has also
joined the field of Democratic presidential prospects, but he isn't as well known at
this stage of the race.
On the Republican side, supporters of Condoleezza Rice are trying to get the
African-American secretary of state in the presidential race but she has spurned
the draft movement.
The results "signal that each of the candidates who fit in that category may have
a little more resistance to overcome than we may have predicted early on," said
Peverill Squire, a University of Iowa political science professor.
Activists like Ellen Malcolm say the national trend is clearly in the direction of
greater acceptance of female candidates. She is the founder and president of
EMILY'S List, a national organization that seeks the election of women who are
Democrats and support abortion rights.
Women have shown they are able to compete and make good elected officials,
said Malcolm, whose group has endorsed Clinton. "When that happens, they get
away from the gender stereotypes ... clothes, hair and who's doing the laundry."
The poll covers all Iowa adults - not just those planning to take part in the
caucuses or in the 2008 presidential election.
Among Democrats, 66 percent say the country is ready for an African-American
president, 60 percent say it's ready for a woman president and 44 percent say it's
ready for a Hispanic president.
"It's going to have to take a woman to get us out of the old boys' club," said poll
participant Diane Harris, a Davenport Democrat who is leaning toward Clinton.
"Being African-American and being politically active all my life, I'd say the country
is more ready for a woman president than an African-American president," said
Harris, 54, a pharmacy services representative and co-owner of an investigations
business.
Poll respondent Katherine Hadsell, a Shellsburg Republican, takes a different
view, saying the door to the White House is open wider to an African-American
than it is to a woman.
"I know that there is still a lot of racial stigma ... but yet people are looking at the
person, not the color of the skin, as far as black or white," said Hadsell, 58, who
moved to Iowa from Alabama last September.
"As far as women, we've only got the one person, and I don't think anyone is
ready for Hillary Clinton," said Hadsell, who currently works at the nuclear power
plant at Palo.
And what about a Hispanic president? Not likely, she said. The national
controversy over immigration policy "has gotten Americans riled, and I know from
coming from the southern part of the U.S. it's a hot subject."
Other Iowans, such as John Fischbeck, a scale technician from Mason City, say
the country isn't ready to depart from electing white males to the presidency.
"The mainstream is bigoted enough that we don't want to get away from our
'white men as politicians.' From a personal standpoint, I don't have any problem
with it and I'd like to think we could move away from that," said Fischbeck, 54, a
Democrat.
Malcolm, the EMILY'S List founder, said she's not discouraged that Iowa has yet
to elect a woman to the governorship or to Congress.
"You do a better job of nominating them than in the general election," Malcolm
acknowledged. But she believes the caucuses, which have been drawing more
women than men, will work to Clinton's advantage.
The Iowa Poll also asked about the presidential candidacy of former Gov. Tom
Vilsack, a Democrat who made it official in November that he's running for the
White House. The results show that Vilsack is still having trouble persuading
fellow Iowans that he belongs in the race.
The poll shows 47 percent of Iowans think it's a bad idea for Vilsack to run for
president. They outnumber the 40 percent who believe his candidacy is a good
idea. The rest are unsure.
"Sometimes your toughest audience in running for president is your home state,"
said
Members of Vilsack's own party are more supportive, with a 53 percent majority
of Democrats saying it's a good idea for Vilsack to seek the presidency.
"It's probably a bit more tepid than the Vilsack campaign would have liked," said
Squire, the U of I political scientist. "That suggests he has a fair amount of work
to do, even here in Iowa, to show that he's a viable, credible candidate." Dianne
Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and
Politics at Iowa State University.
Harris, the poll participant from Davenport, says her party needs a candidate with
more foreign policy experience and a better chance of winning than Vilsack, who
is better suited to a Cabinet post.
"I think he can make a good run for it. I'm not sure he's electable, and I'm leaning
toward somebody that I believe can be elected," said Harris.
Hadsell, the Iowa newcomer from Alabama, applauds Vilsack's candidacy.
"I'm a Republican, but I like what I hear so far. Everyone seems to be very happy
with what he did on his platform" as governor, said Hadsell, who's been leaning
toward U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona as her choice from the GOP.
Vilsack's standing as a candidate has improved from a previous poll taken in
January 2005, when he was considering a presidential bid. Just 29 percent of
Iowans said then it was a good idea for him to run.
The new poll shows a solid majority of Iowans - 69 percent - approve of Vilsack's
job performance during his eight years in the governor's office.
That's a little below the 76 percent job approval rating that former Republican
Gov. Terry Branstad received in a 1999 Iowa Poll for his 16 years in office.
Reporter Jonathan Roos can be reached at (515) 284-8443 or jroos@dmreg.com