Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, WI
12-03-06
Thompson's trial balloon below radar
All quiet on ex-governor's presidential aspirations
By KATHERINE M. SKIBA
kskiba@journalsentinel.com
Washington - Two and a half weeks ago, Tommy Thompson said from Iowa's
hallowed political turf that he might run for president in 2008.
The Associated Press promptly carried the news of Thompson's intentions - to
form an exploratory committee early next year - as an "urgent" dispatch, and
CNN carried it as "breaking news."
Since then, a deafening silence.
Thompson, 65, a lawyer and consultant here with his hand in a host of business
ventures, was out of the country last week, reportedly in Spain, and definitely
unavailable to be interviewed and unresponsive to interview requests.
The same, curious quiet is all that's come lately from "Team Thompson," his
coterie of advisers.
"I think he'll have more to say in coming weeks," was all Tony Jewell, his
spokesman, offered last week.
A host of others who are promoting Thompson - some of them aides when he
was Wisconsin's longest-serving governor and, for four years, the U.S. health
and human services secretary - did not return phone calls.
That leaves others who know Thompson - some of whom have spoken to him
recently - to speculate about where he's headed.
And they're not convinced that the man who flirted earlier this year with running
for Wisconsin governor and the U.S. Senate, then sat those races out, will follow
through on this infinitely bigger gamble.
Earlier this fall, Thompson advisers said that Iowa, where the presidential
nominating season kicks off, would be a focal point.
Much of the attention there last week was lavished on Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack,
who became the Democratic Party's first official entrant in the 2008 presidential
race.
There was the usual fanfare - a boisterous crowd, colorful placards and the
kickoff of a five-state tour - that stood in sharp contrast to Thompson's largely
under-the-radar efforts to date.
Six visits to Iowa
Thompson has made six visits to Iowa this fall, which puts him behind or tied with
other Republican hopefuls, according to a Web site, iowapolitics.com. The site
has tallied visits by prospective candidates since November 2004.
Through last Monday, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had made 12 visits to
Iowa; New York Gov. George Pataki, 10; Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, eight;
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, seven; and former House Speaker Newt
Gingrich, six.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had made only two visits to Iowa,
according to the Web site. But a movement to draft Giuliani for president is
running 60-second radio spots in Des Moines, as well as in Manchester, N.H.,
where the nation's first primary will be held.
Sen. John McCain of Arizona has made four visits to a state where some Iowans
are still smarting about his largely ignoring Iowa when he sought the nomination
in 2000 and stating that he preferred to phase out subsidies for corn-rich Iowa's
ethanol industry.
Former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, a four-term Republican whose last three terms
coincided with Thompson's first three, met with his "neighbor" recently and isn't
sure it's a go.
"I think he's still on the fence," Branstad said. "I think he'd like to run, but I also
think he's a realist in looking at how big the task is."
While visits to Iowa's luncheonettes and living rooms aren't critical yet, the
wooing of top strategists and opinion leaders - and critically, big dollars - is.
Political managers consider $20 million to be the de facto price of admission to
compete in the nation's early nominating contests, which begin in just 13 months.
Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist whose candidate, Senate Majority Leader Bill
Frist, just dropped out of the race, said this about Thompson:
"It's a challenge at this point to come out of left field. We're operating in a
compressed universe (with front-loaded primaries and caucuses) and I don't
know the answer to this: Has he spent the last year quietly building an
organization and a finance organization?
"You can't turn that on overnight."
Branstad, now president of Des Moines University, is a big fan of Thompson's and a friend. But, like others there, he points to McCain, Giuliani and Romney as
the top-tier Republican candidates.
Talking about Thompson, he said: "I don't want to underestimate the advantage
the other candidates have in terms of name recognition and money."
Executive has doubts
Marvin A. Pomerantz, an Iowa business executive who has been active in
Republican politics for 50 years, says he's talked to Thompson twice in recent
months. That's after Thompson called saying he planned to throw his hat in the
ring and asked for Pomerantz's support. He is CEO of the Mid-America Group, a
real estate and investment firm in West Des Moines.
His view? "A competent guy, but I don't think he's going to be president of the
United States."
Said Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines:
"His strengths would be his experience both as governor - and he's considered a
fairly successful governor - and as a cabinet secretary. His weakness would be
that he's not terribly well-known."
Added Steffen Schmidt, professor of political science at Iowa State
University: "His name identity in Iowa is not zero, but it's not very good. You only
have to ask likely Republican caucus-goers, a lot of whom don't know who he is."
Thompson, so far, is not setting the world on fire in New Hampshire, either.
"He is a long shot," said Andrew Smith, who directs survey research at the
University of New Hampshire Survey Center, known for its Granite State Poll.
"There are three well-known, well-funded candidates in front of him: McCain and
Giuliani are almost rock stars in the Republican Party. And Mitt Romney is better
known here, being governor of (neighboring) Massachusetts, and he's been
putting together an organization for a couple of years and lining up key support
here."
Support for McCain
Early presidential polls aren't given much weight because events are so much in
flux. That said, a Granite State Poll conducted in September found McCain
supported by 32% of New Hampshire Republicans and Giuliani in second place,
with 19%. (Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton was the favorite, picked by 30%,
and John Edwards next, with 16%.)
The 206 likely GOP voters in the survey were allowed to name any candidate and Thompson wasn't identified once, Smith said.
At the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, executive director Andy
Leach said he's had no contact with Thompson or his associates.
People such as Leach are polite about a Thompson candidacy. "As soon as he
gets here, regardless of what he says his intentions are, everyone will assume
his intentions are to run," he said.
The same goes in Iowa. "We welcome him (Thompson) here, obviously," said
Cullen Sheehan, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa.
Within the Capital Beltway, folks are often more blunt.
"I like Thompson; I think he's capable. But his chances are zero," Jack Valenti, a
Washington institution who was an aide to President Johnson and later the
Hollywood film industry's top lobbyist for nearly 40 years, said last week.
Rich Galen, a Republican political columnist and former aide to Dan Quayle and
Newt Gingrich, was among the panelists last week evaluating the 2008 GOP
presidential contenders. The panel was part of a conference put on by The
Hotline, a political news service, and the University of Virginia's Center for
Politics.
During the hour, neither Galen, who writes at mullings.com, nor any of the four
other panelists so much as breathed Thompson's name.
Asked afterward about Thompson's prospects, Galen said: "I mean, I love the
guy, but his chances are zero."
Fred Barnes, executive editor of The Weekly Standard and commentator for Fox
News, also spoke at the conference. Barnes, too, was interviewed later about
Thompson. He began by saying it's impossible to gauge Thompson's chances,
since you never rule anybody out.
But he went on to say that as a presidential hopeful, Thompson might have had
better prospects were he a Democrat, since in years past that party has been
more apt to "reach back into the bottom of the pack and pull somebody out, as
they did with (George) McGovern and (Jimmy) Carter and (Bill) Clinton."
What's Barnes' advice to Thompson?
"Run for governor," he said. "He was a great governor."