Des Moines Register
March 5, 2006 Sunday
SUNDAY OPINION; Pg. 3O
Iowa's people drought
By the REGISTER
EDITORIAL BOARD
It will happen gradually, imperceptibly from day to day, but profoundly over the next few
decades. The approaching change in the makeup of Iowa's population - many more
elderly, fewer young adults - could affect almost every aspect of life: the workplace,
housing, education, health care, community.
The Register asked experts from a variety of fields for their thinking on how things might
be different and what might be done to prepare for the changes. These are some of the
responses.
Elderly will need care, but who will provide it?
Nowhere are the effects of the demographic shift illustrated more starkly than in longterm care.
As the population ages, the number of people needing nursing homes and other longterm care will increase. But the pool of workers available to give that care will shrink.
Already, there is a shortage of direct-care workers. Turnover is estimated as high as 60
percent annually in Iowa nursing homes. Chronic understaffing undermines morale of
remaining staff.
If staffing is a problem now, how much worse will it be in another 10 or 20 years?
"We've been reading the writing on the wall for years," said Di Findley, executive director
of the Iowa CareGivers Association, "but it seems the only time people take notice is
when there is a real crisis."
The crisis is nearing. Findley attended a White House Conference on Aging last year
and heard "pretty gloomy predictions" about how a shortage of caregivers might lead to
"warehousing" of the elderly.
Findley said finding greater efficiencies in caregiving might help stretch the workforce,
and more in-home care might be a possibility, but the greatest need is to improve
retention of direct-care workers already in the field.
The CareGivers Association, which represents workers in nursing homes, assisted-living
centers and similar settings, has long argued for better pay and benefits (about a fourth
of certified nurse assistants have no health insurance). Findley said other factors affect
retention as well. They include a need for better training and mentoring, avenues for
advancement within the profession and generally greater respect.
"If we don't respond to their needs, there's something seriously wrong," she said.
That could be said both of caregivers and the greater numbers who will need their care.
Policy changes needed to support rural areas
The demographic trends of a growing pool of retirees and shrinking numbers of young
people are already felt in rural America.
"The social implications are huge, in school consolidation, on hospitals, nursing homes,
churches," said U.S Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns, an Iowa native. "I was
visiting with my brother-in-law, who lives up in Mitchell County, and he was talking about
churches that had closed in that area."
Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, grew up in Mitchell County, on a dairy farm near
Osage. He's seen the population loss in rural Iowa up close.
"When my mother was still alive, she always wanted to go out and drive around the
section," he said. "She wanted to look at the crops, the old place. And it occurred to
me one of the last times I did that, there weren't any families on that section. And then I
got to thinking how many families were there when I grew up. There were five or six
families actively engaged in agriculture - not all making their living on that section, but
pretty close. Now one family may farm four or five sections."
Changing circumstances demand changes in government policy, he said.
"How do you adopt a policy that says we value what small towns are about; we value the
culture; we value the young people that are produced there?" he asked.
Thoughtful approaches can be developed to subsidize agriculture and improve the
economic viability of rural communities, he said.
He recommended increased support for research that could lead to more agriculturerelated jobs and added value for agricultural products. He ticked off other possibilities,
such as assisting in loans for biodisel or ethanol plants or in creating processing
opportunities or new marketplaces. And by wiring communities for high-speed Internet
access, "you can do many jobs in even isolated small communities," he said.
Technology workers needed, or jobs will leave state
On a recent day, Ron Kirchenbauer said he could make immediate employment offers to
about 300 engineers - if he could find them. In all, he had about 775 job openings that
day. A lot more will be open in the future.
Kirchenbauer is executive vice president for human resources at Rockwell Collins. The
Cedar Rapids-based company, which makes sophisticated communications and aviation
electronics, projects the need to add up to 7,000 new employees by 2010.
The company now has a worldwide workforce of about 17,000, about half in Iowa.
If the ratio stays the same, about 3,500 of those new employees could be in Iowa, but
the implication is clear: If enough workers can't be found in Iowa, those jobs will go
elsewhere.
Kirchenbauer said the potential worker shortage is not just one of numbers but also of
skills. He said Rockwell Collins needs people who understand technology in virtually
every job in the company, not just the engineering jobs.
Kirchenbauer, who has a degree in math and physics, recalls the space race of the
1950s and '60s, when American students were keenly interested in science and math. "I
grew up in an era when that was tremendously exciting," he said. "I'm still excited."
Restoring that sense of excitement about science and math has become somewhat of a
mission at Rockwell Collins. The company is working with Iowa schools to encourage
better science and math education through all 12 grades. It's also trying to stir more
interest in careers in engineering, especially among women.
To enlarge the pool of workers, it will be important for workplaces to embrace cultural
differences, the company has noted.
Not just Rockwell Collins, but the whole state, the whole nation and every community
need to focus on the problem, Kirchenbauer said.
State's graduating classes will continue to shrink
Jerry Kelley, mayor of Indianola, served on the governor's strategic planning commission
and now helps direct Iowans for a Better Future, a group formed to make sure the
commission's plan, Iowa 2010, doesn't gather dust on a shelf.
Kelley is probably as familiar as anyone with Iowa's demographic statistics, but the
numbers that stick in his mind hearken back to his days as a schoolteacher.
Twenty years ago, when he was teaching school, about 60,000 young people were
graduating from Iowa high schools every year. Now the number is down to about 30,000
and is projected to fall to about 20,000.
The No. 1 recommendation of the 2010 plan was to attract more people to Iowa through
a variety of initiatives. Iowans for a Better Future is about to unveil one - an effort to
market Iowa as "America's classroom," drawing students to Iowa from around the
country and world in hopes many will stay.
As a mayor, Kelley also has thought about what the demographics mean to local
governments. Like businesses, governments will face a worker shortage. That means,
Kelley said, governments will have to find efficiencies to deliver services with fewer
workers. There will be a greater need for cities to work together as regional communities
instead of self-contained towns.
Kelley is disappointed Iowa has been slow to awaken to the demographic alarms raised
by the 2010 commission and others. With the classroom initiative and other responses,
"We needed to do it five or six years ago," he said.
More training can expand pool of skilled workers
Companies are grappling with two megatrends: They face not only a shrinking pool of
available workers, but also the need to hire more workers with advanced skills and
training, said Mary Chapman of Des Moines Area Community College.
As vice president for community and workforce partnerships, she already hears
companies say, "There are just not enough skilled workers."
More of today's jobs require broader education and higher-level critical-thinking skills,
often two years of education at a community college or a four-year degree. And even
college graduates will need to return periodically to acquire new skills, Chapman said.
Those realities have prompted the nonprofit Institute for Tomorrow's Workforce to
recommend that by 2020, all Iowa high school graduates should go on to earn an
associate's, technical or four-year college degree.
Iowa's community colleges offer the flexibility to train and re-train workers for a changing
economy, she said. "The only limitation has been having adequate resources to continue
to make those changes and meet those needs."
College educators are seeing a significant number of high school graduates who are
unprepared for higher education, she said. The problem is even greater among minority
students, reflecting the so-called achievement gap between minority students and white
students.
As the working-age population shrinks, "We can't afford to ignore any group," Chapman
said. "The achievement gap plays a big role in being able to address the skills shortage."
Community colleges are working with three broad groups to enhance their potential to
land jobs and earn higher wages: high school graduates who need more training for the
jobs they seek; experienced workers who need more or different training; and untapped
populations who traditionally have found it difficult to get jobs. They include the disabled,
entry-level workers, displaced workers and people with criminal convictions.
Accommodating older workers could ease labor shortage
At the very time a shortage of young workers is looming, a lot of baby boomers are
indicating they plan to continue working beyond normal retirement age.
"It's kind of a serendipitous meeting of need and demand," said Mark Haverland, director
of the Iowa Division of Elder Affairs. If older workers stay employed longer than
expected, the projected labor shortage might be eased considerably.
The elder affairs division and AARP are working to develop strategies to accommodate
the needs of Iowa employers and older workers.
Haverland said many baby boomers want to keep working, some because they need the
paycheck, others because they want the meaningful activity and socialization that come
with work.
But some employers haven't yet noticed that they'll need older workers, Haverland said.
Older workers tell pollsters they feel unwelcome at work or can't find jobs.
Actually, he said, the desire of older workers for flex hours and part-time work can mesh
well with the needs of employers who have peak and off-peak hours.
There's also the matter of all the institutional knowledge that will be lost to employers if
baby boomers retire en masse. Keeping older workers around as mentors for younger
workers can fill the needs of both the older workers and the company.
Haverland tells the story of a longtime manager of a supermarket meat counter who
proposed to his employer that he be demoted to assistant manager. In that role, working
part-time and without the stress of being manager, he could train his younger
replacement.
Those kinds of arrangements make sense for everyone, he said.
Government will study issues affecting older workers
Iowa isn't alone in the demographic shift. It's a national phenomenon that the U.S.
Department of Labor has begun addressing.
Emily Stove DeRocco, assistant secretary of labor for employment and training, told the
Register:
"The great American demographic shift continues, as the first of 78 million baby boomers
turns 60 this year. Retirement, it seems, is just over the horizon.
"Yet Americans are living longer, healthier, and more active lives. Most will happily retire.
But quite a few will work beyond retirement age by choice or circumstance. Fortunately,
our country grays from a position of economic strength.
"Iowans can boast that their state ranks fifth in the percentage of residents 65 and older.
Unemployment is at a low 4.7 percent nationally and even lower in Iowa. And employers
go on hiring.
"Businesses often express their desire for mature workers.
"This spring the department will convene the first meeting of a cross-agency task force
that will act on issues facing seniors who want to remain in the workforce, including
training and employment as well as flexible work arrangements."
Distinctive urban spaces can lure mix of young, old
How will the changing demographics alter the way Iowans live and work? Probably by
continuing trends that are already under way, said Kate Schwennsen, the 2006
president of the American Institute of Architects and associate dean in the College of
Design at Iowa State University.
"Re-urbanization" is happening in Des Moines with a boom in downtown loft and
condominium living. Schwennsen said the phenomenon can be seen in cities such as
Dubuque and Davenport, too, and perhaps even in some small towns where secondstory apartments above Main Street businesses are being reoccupied.
The new urban dwellers will be a mix of young and old, drawn by cultural amenities,
proximity to work and freedom from house and yard maintenance. Will suburban sprawl
subside? If the population stops growing, if gas prices continue upward and if the reurbanization trend continues, then sprawl might indeed taper off.
Whatever the exact pattern, Schwennsen said, universal principles apply to building
successful communities. Among them is distinctive architecture. Other factors include
vibrant public spaces, strong neighborhood identities, a variety of transportation options
and preservation of a strong urban center.
Iowa communities do well on some of those principles, not so well on others. Part of the
secret of attracting more people might hinge on Iowa communities doing all of them well.
Immigration of Latinos could stem population loss
The Latino population in Iowa is expected to keep growing rapidly. Armando Villareal,
director of the state Division of Latino Affairs, thinks it will grow even more than the
official projection and hit around 300,000 by 2030.
If that happens, about one of every 10 Iowans would be Latino.
If it doesn't happen, Iowa likely will lose population. Immigration, mainly from Mexico, is
about the only thing that's keeping Iowa's population from falling.
Welcoming more immigrants was one of the main recommendations in Iowa 2010, the
state's strategic plan.
Villareal, who came to Iowa from Texas in December, said he generally senses that
divisions over immigration are less hardened in Iowa than in Texas. "There's a
practicality here," he said. "[People say] this is what the future looks like, so how can we
start working on this house of the future?"
New and old Iowans together must "realize we all have one wagon to pull," he said.
The greatest challenge in assimilating the new Iowans, he said, is finding ways to
"regularize" life for undocumented immigrants, so they can contribute openly to their
communities, no longer living in the shadows, afraid to report crimes and accepting low
wages that pull down everyone's.
"We've got to help prepare those folks to help pull the social wagon instead of being
pulled along by it," he said.
Villareal is optimistic. "This is like frontier stuff," he said, referring to Iowa's relatively new
experience with immigration. "If Iowa can get it right, it will be a playbook for the rest of
the country."
Recruiting physicians will become even more difficult
As the population ages, what happens in a state that already ranks 49^th in
physicians per capita and has difficulty recruiting enough doctors?
The recruiting could get even more difficult, says Mike Abrams, executive vice president
of the Iowa Medical Society.
Among the factors contributing to Iowa's difficulty in attracting physicians are the sixfigure debts that many new doctors owe after medical school, Abrams said. The need to
pay off debt draws them to regions where doctors make more money.
The government's reimbursements for Medicare patients in Iowa are lower than in most
other states, reducing physicians' incomes here. Medicare is the government health-care
program serving senior citizens and the disabled. The reimbursement gap will hurt even
more as the proportion of Medicare patients increases.
Abrams said Iowa's physician shortage tends to reinforce itself. Because they're in
smaller practices, doctors in Iowa tend to be on call after hours and on weekends more
than physicians in other regions, leading to high stress and burnout.
So Iowa is facing the future with an aging population that will need more medical care,
while finding enough physicians might be more difficult.
Improving federal reimbursements is a must, he said, especially in areas of physician
shortages.
Finding ways to reduce the cost of medical education, using scholarships instead of
loans, also would help.