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Eric Opiela [eopiela@ericopiela.com}
Wednesday, June 15, 2011 10:38 PM
lamarsmith21gmail.com camp; Gerardo Interiano; Reb Wayne
jybblb2©aol.com Brown
Analysis of Cl 41 by two Harvard poli sci professors
heda_texas_redistricting_evaluation_of_plan_ci 41_table. png; Untitled attachment
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Texas Redistricting Evaluation of Plan C141
-
by Stephen Ansolabehere and Maxwell Palmer
Last week, the Texas State Senate passed redistricting plan C14 1. The plan adds four new seats. which were allocated to Texas based
on the 2010 census. This memo presents results using standard methods for assessing the likely partisan consequences of plans. We
map past election results into the current districts in order to calculate what percent of seats are majority Republican and what percent
of seats are majority Democrat. We further considcr the possibility of uniform shifts in the statewide vote, either in the direction of
Democrats or Republicans, to assess the likely affects of the plan on the division of seats in future elections. Of particular interest is
the projected division of seats in the hypothetical case when the statewide vote is divided evenly between the parties. This value is
called the “partisan bias” of the districting plan (see Browning and King 1987).
Based on the 2008 presidential election results, twenty-two of the twenty-three current Republican members of Congress will be in
districts in w’hich Republicans arc expected to receive 55 percent of the vote or more, and eight of the nine current Democratic
members of Congress will be in districts in which Democrats are expected to receive 55 percent of the vote or more. Democrat Lloyd
ih
Doggett’s 25
district will go from 60% Democratic to 55% Republican. Of the four new districts, two are districts where we expect
Republicans to receive 55% or the vote or more, and two are districts where we expect Democrats to receive 55% of the vote or more.
Consequently, if Doggett is defeated due to the shift of his district from heavily Democratic to Republican, the Republicans will
increase their congressional delegation from twenty-three to twenty six seats, and the Democrats from nine to ten seats.Jjl
Analysis of the plan also allows us to project the likely division of the legislature for different (hypothetical) divisions of the vote
statewide. We plot these results on a seats-votes curve. where each point on the plot represents the percentage of seats that would be
won by the Democrats for the given vote share. [1
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Projected Democratic Performance Under Plan C 141
Vote Measure
Expected Vote
Expected Seats
(%)
2002-2OlONorrnal Vote
2008 Presidential Vote
2010 Gubernatorial Vote
42.13
44.05
43.40
10
10
10
Seats at 50% of
the Vote
13
13
12
Vote Share Bias
(%)
13.89
13.89
16.67
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This curve reveals two important features of this plan. First, the plan has a partisan bias of 14—1 7%.
Rather than winning 50% of the seats in the hypothetical case where the Democrats win 50% of the vote,
the Democrats would win only 43—46% of the seats. To win 50% of the seats, the Democrats would need
to win roughly 52—53% of the vote.
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Uniform Swing fOr Plan C141
100
Vote Measure:
o 2002—2.010 NormaL Vote
• 2008 Presfdentral Vote
2010 Gubernatorial Vote
000
•
80
•so
*0
0
0
0
o
.
.
...
.::.::.:.;;.:.;:.:.::.:.:.:.x..X.X.
...
.•.•::•.
..x.:.:an
...
....:.:..
...
.•.•:•:•:.•.
...
.:y.:.
.
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t
00
QAfl
cfU
x
0
W
oo••
•••oooooooo•
oco
20
0
35
40
45
50
55
% Expected Dern Vote
65
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Second, the number of seats won by each party is constant for any Democratic share of the vote between
thirty—seven and forty—eight percent. This range includes the recent statewide performance of most
Democratic candidates over the last ten years, which has averaged 42%. This flat portion of the seats—
votes curve indicates extremely low competitiveness in almost all of the congressional districts under this
plan. Thus, the plan is not responsive to small changes in the vote share of either party in the range of
vote shares that we expect in the next elections. All of the changes in the makeup of Texas’
congressional delegation are likely to be the result of the partisan decisions in the redistricting process,
rather than from competitive congressional elections.
[1] Root, Jay. Texas Senate Approves GOP—Drawn Congressional Map. The Texas Tribune, June 6,
2011 http://www.texastribune.org/texas—redistricting/redistricting/texas—sena...
[2] We generated three different uniform swing curves using different estimates for the Democratic share
of the vote. First, we used a normal vote, which is the mean of the Democratic vote in each voting
tabulation district (VTD) for all contested elections between 2002 and 201 0. Second, we used the 2008
Presidential vote. Third, we used the 2010 gubernatorial vote.
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Texas Redistricting
—
Filed 08/05/11 Page 12 of 29
Evaluation of Plan C141
by Stephen Ansolabehere and Maxwell Palmer
Last week, the Texas State Senate passed redistricting plan C141. The plan adds (‘our
new seats, which were allocated to Texas based on the 2010 census. This memo presents
results using standard methods for assessing the likely partisan consequences of plans.
We map past election results into the current districts in order to calculate what percent of
seats are majority Republican and what percent of seats are majority Democrat. We
further consider the possibility of uniform shifts in the statewide vote, either in the
direction of Democrats or Republicans, to assess the likely affects of the plan on the
division of seats in future elections. Of particular interest is the projected division of
seats in the hypothetical case when the statewide vote is divided evenly between the
parties. This value is called the “partisan bias” of the districting plan (see Browning and
King 1987).
Based on the 2008 presidential election results, twenty-two of the twenty-three current
Republican members of Congress will be in districts in which Republicans are expected
to receive 55 percent of the vote or more, and eight of the nine current Democratic
members of Congress will be in districts in which Democrats are expected to receive 55
th
percent of the vote or more. Democrat Lloyd Doggett’s 25
district will go from 60%
Democratic to 55% Republican. Of the four new districts, two are districts where we
expect Republicans to receive 55% or the vote or more, and two are districts where we
expect Democrats to receive 55% of the vote or more. Consequently, if Doggett is
defeated due to the shift of his district from heavily Democratic to Republican, the
Republicans will increase their congressional delegation from twenty-three to twenty six
seats, and the Democrats from nine to ten seats.’
Analysis of the plan also allows us to project the likely division of the legislature for
different (hypothetical) divisions of the vote statewide. We plot these results on a seatsvotes curve, where each point on the plot represents the percentage of seats that would be
won by the Democrats for the given vote share.
2
Projected Democratic Performance Under Plan C141
Vote Measure
2002-2OlONormal Vote
2008 Presidential Vote
2010 Gubernatorial Vole
Expected Vote
(%)
4213
44.05
43.40
Expected Seats
10
10
10
Seats at 50% of
the Vote
13
13
12
Vote Share Bias
(%)
13.89
13.89
16.67
Root. Jay. Texas Senate Approves GOP-Drawn Congressional Map. The Texas Tribune. June 6, 2011.
http:i/’’w.texasfribune.org/texas-redistricting/redistrictinwtexas-senate-approves-gop-drawn
conessional-rnap/
2
We generated three different uniform swing curves using different estimates for the Democratic share of
the vote. First, we used a normal vote, which is the mean of the Democratic vote in each voting tabulation
district (VTD) for all contested elections between 2002 and 2010. Second, we used the 2008 Presidential
vote. Third, we used the 2010 gubernatorial vote.
Case 5:11-cv-00360-OLG-JES-XR Document 117-7
Filed 08/05/11 Page 13 of 29
This curve reveals two important features of this plan. First, the plan has a partisan bias
of 14-17%. Rather than winning 50% of the seats in the hypothetical case where the
Democrats win 50% of the vote, the Democrats would win only 43-46% of the seats. To
win 50% of the seats, the Democrats would need to win roughly 52-53% of the vote.
Uniform Swing for Plan C141
ioo
Vote Measure:
o 2002—2010 Normal Vote
• 2008 Presidential Vote
2010 Gubernatorial Vote
000
•
80
60
0!00
.
x
40
W
0:
•• •00000000•
000
20
0
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
% Expected Dem Vote
Second, the number of seats won by each party is constant for any Democratic share of
the vote between thirty-seven and forty-eight percent. This range includes the recent
statewide perfornance of most Democratic candidates over the last ten years, which has
averaged 42%. This flat portion of the seats-votes curve indicates extremely low
competitiveness in almost all of the congressional districts under this plan. Thus, the plan
is not responsive to small changes in the vote share of either party in the range of vote
shares that we expect in the next elections. All of the changes in the makeup of Texas’
congressional delegation are likely to be the result of partisan decisions in the
redistricting process, rather than from competitive congressional elections.
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Eric Opiela [eopiela@ericopiela.com]
Tuesday, June 21, 20111:39 PM
Gerardo Interiano
Re: county by county report
huh
On Jun 21, 2011, at 1:27 PM, Gerardo Interiano wrote:
For some reason Culberson thought that Patrick was going to offer an amendment to the bill today....
On Tue, Jun 21, 2011 at 1:21 PM, Eric Opiela <eopiela@ericopiela.com> wrote:
Thank you.
No clue why he might be calling. Culberson and I haven’t talked since early May.
EO
On Jun 21, 2011, at 1:16 PM, Gerardo Interiano wrote:
Just forwarded it to you. Why is Tony Essalih calling me? I just tried to call him back but got his voicemail.
On Tue, Jun 21, 2011 at 1:08 PM, Eric Opiela <eopiela@ericopiela.com> wrote:
I think this is called the 211 report.
EO
On Jun 21, 2011, at 11:49 AM, Eric Opiela wrote:
>GI
>
> could you get tlc to run a report of each congressional district with a county by county breakdown of 08 an 10
republican primary and general election turnout?
>
>
> Thanks
>
> eo
1
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Hi Gerardo
Filed 08/05/11 Page 20 of 29
Mattie Parker [mattiejparkergmail.com]
Tuesday, January 04, 201110:45 AM
Gerardo Interiano
Hello
and redistricting
...
—
I hope all is well with you and Aynsley in Austin. I had dinner recently with Kevin Robnett and he mentioned that you guys
were doing really well.
I wanted to touch base with you regarding redistricting, as I am handling things for Congresswoman Granger here in
Texas. If possible, I would like to chat for just a bit over the phone about how things are looking on your end in order to
keep my boss informed as things progress. I know that session starts next week and your life will be full speed through
May. My contact information is below but feel free to email if it is easier to set up a time.
Many thanks,
Mattie
Mattie Parker
817-565-5997 cell
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Essalih, Tony [Tony.EssaIihmaiI.house.gov]
Tuesday, January 18, 2011 6:40 PM
Gerardo Interiano
Tomorrow
Hey man, Ellie an I came to town for the inauguration today and my boss just called and asked
me to go on a goodwill mission to the legislative council office tomorrow and talk to the
guy(s) in charge of mapdrawing, just to introduce myself.
Was hoping you might be able to point me in the right direction as far as who the key people
are. Thanks so much, man.
Tony Essalih
Chief of Staff
US Rep. John Culberson
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Essalih, Tony [Tony.EssalihmaiI.house.gov]
Wednesday, May 04, 201110:28 AM
Bonnie L. Bruce; Gerardo Interiano
Sorry to keep pressing
I’m still wondering about timing on the House side
—
do you have any idea when the committee will meet?
We’re receiving word about movement in both chambers, but it’s short on specifics.
My boss wants me to make the trek to Austin once we know the committee schedule.
Many thanks.
Tony Essalih
Chief of Staff
US Representative John Culberson
(713) 682-8828 Houston
(202) 225-2571 Washington, DC
www.culberson. house.gov
-
-
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Bonnie L. Bruce
Wednesday, May 04, 201110:57 AM
‘Essalih, Tony’; Gerardo Interiano
Ryan Downton_HC; Addie Crimmins_HC; Doug Davis_SC
RE: Sorry to keep pressing
Tony,
I know we don’t know each other, but I am a person of my word. I told you that when we knew a schedule I would let you
know. A schedule has not been agreed to at this point and discussions are ongoing between the House and the Senate.
When a schedule is concrete, I will be happy to let all members of the Congressional delegation who have inquired know
of Chairman Solomons’ intent. I sympathize and understand the need to make travel arrangements and will try to give you
as much advanced notice as is possible.
On a note about the hearing, if the Congressional members wish to have theirwishes heard by the Texas Legislative
members of the Redistricting Committee, it might be wise for them to deliver their testimony in person.
Cordially,
Bonnie Bruce
Chief of Staff
Office of State Rep. Burt R. Solomons
Room IW.11
P.O. Box 2910
Austin, TX 78768-2910
512-463-0478
From: Essalih, Tony [mailto:Tony.Essalihcmail.house.ppv]
Sent: Wednesday, May 04, 2011 10:28 AM
To: Bonnie L. Bruce; Gerardo Interiano
Subject: Sorry to keep pressing
I’m still wondering about timing on the House side
—
do you have any idea when the committee will meet?
We’re receiving word about movement in both chambers, but it’s short on specifics.
My boss wants me to make the trek to Austin once we know the committee schedule.
Many thanks.
Tony Essalih
Chief of Staff
US Representative John Culberson
(713) 682-8828 Houston
(202) 225-2571 Washington, DC
www.culberson. house. gov
-
-
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Essalih, Tony [Tony.Essalih@mail.house.govj
Wednesday, May 04, 201111:01 AM
Bonnie L. Bruce; Gerardo Interiano
Ryan Downton_HC; Addie Crimmins_HC; Doug Davis_SC
RE: Sorry to keep pressing
Much appreciated, Bonnie. Didn’t mean to imply that you weren’t, just figured things tend to get extremely busy there
and you’re juggling a hundred other things.
Thanks also for the tip on having delegation members testify in person, as well.
From: Bonnie L. Bruce [mailto: Bonnie.Brucehouse.state.I.us]
Sent: Wednesday, May 04, 2011 10:57 AM
To: Essalih, Tony; Gerardo Interiano
Cc: Ryan Downton_HC; Addie Crimmins_HC; Doug Davis_SC
Subject: RE: Sorry to keep pressing
Tony,
I know we don’t know each other, but I am a person of my word. I told you that when we knew a schedule I would let you
know. A schedule has not been agreed to at this point and discussions are ongoing between the House and the Senate.
When a schedule is concrete, I will be happy to let all members of the Congressional delegation who have inquired know
of Chairman Solomons’ intent. I sympathize and understand the need to make travel arrangements and will try to give you
as much advanced notice as is possible.
On a note about the hearing, if the Congressional members wish to have their wishes heard by the Texas Legislative
members of the Redistricting Committee, it might be wise for them to deliver their testimony in person.
Cordially,
Bonnie Bruce
Chief of Staff
Office of State Rep. Burt R. Solomons
Room IW.11
P.O. Box 2910
Austin, TX 78768-2910
512-463-0478
From: Essalih, Tony [mailto:Tony.Essalihmail.house.gov1
Sent: Wednesday, May 04, 2011 10:28 AM
To: Bonnie L. Bruce; Gerardo Interiano
Subject: Sorry to keep pressing
I’m still wondering about timing on the House side
do you have any idea when the committee will meet?
We’re receiving word about movement in both chambers, but it’s short on specifics.
My boss wants me to make the trek to Austin once we know the committee schedule.
Many thanks.
1
Case 5:11-cv-00360-OLG-JES-XR Document 117-7
Tony Essalih
Chief of Staff
US Representative John Culberson
(713) 682-8828 Houston
(202) 225-2571 Washington, DC
www.culberson.house.qov
-
-
2
Filed 08/05/11 Page 29 of 29