ICT-­‐732 TECHNOLOGY FUTURES, 3 CREDITS Instructor: Dr. Byron C. Anderson, Program Director for BS-­‐ICT Office: 152 Communications Technologies Building Office Hours: see online presence below Phone: (715) 232-­‐1299 (office); (715)505-­‐1107 (mobile) Text based: For general course questions, use D2L—Discussion—Email For sensitive or personal issues, use andersonby@uwstout.edu Welcome to this course. It is my goal to help you succeed in both your academic and professional aspirations. As a graduate learner you’re likely balancing a host of life obligations across home, family, work, academics, and your community. The work we do in this class should dovetail with your professional pursuits as often as possible. Look for ways to help our classwork bring meaning and value to your other life dynamics. Be thinking, “How can I use what we’re doing in class to add value in other areas of my life?” If we are purposeful in applying this approach, I’m confident our learning with be to the benefit of many. CATALOG DESCRIPTION Apply systems thinking in developing frameworks for forecasting technology driven topics. Examine the implications of technological change along with social change for various futures. COURSE OBJECTIVES Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: 1. Exhibit an understanding of contemporary technological change. 2. Apply understanding of social change theories and systems thinking to forecasting techniques. 3. Apply common forecasting techniques to explore various futures for technology. 4. Produce baseline and alternative future scenarios systematically for various technology topics. 5. Analyze current technological topics to identify uncertainties and leading indicators. 6. Test forecast assumptions using baseline analysis or other appropriate techniques. RESOURCES We will draw upon a variety of resources as part of our studies. A core body of materials shared as part of the University of Houston, Certificate for Strategic Foresight program will be used. Also, please find online via UW-­‐Stout library e-­‐text resources or obtain another way… Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change by Adam Gordon (2008); http://site.ebrary.com/id/10271812 Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future by Wade Woody (2012); http://site.ebrary.com/id/10542526 ASSIGNMENTS AND MEASURES OF WORK Assignment
Strategic Thinking Quizzes
Wade & Gordon Discussions
Introduction Presentation
Framework Forecasting Project Book Review
Notes
Most are 10 points
Four and feedback
4-­‐5 minutes & feedback
six segments
3 deposits
Approximate Percent of Grade
20%
20%
5%
50%
5%
GRADING A 90%-­‐100%; B 80 %-­‐89.9%; C 70%-­‐79.9%; D 60%-­‐ 69.9%; F 59% or less (Plus or minus modifications will be left up to the instructor’s discretion though generally +@>7 and -­‐@<3 (e.g. 82.7%=B-­‐)). DUE DATES AND TIME Assignments are due by end of day (midnight) CST on the day they are due unless otherwise indicated. Feedback on the work submitted will be provided through the D2L grade book. Work submitted late is docked 1% per hour after the due date and time including weekends and holidays; rounded up. Late submission time will be based-­‐on arrival via email or other official post. In general we’ll use end of Sunday night as our default time assignments are due. COMMUNICATION & ONLINE PRESENCE I find many benefits for using D2L as our 1-­‐stop communication center; in particular it often allows everyone to get a uniform answer to a question posed. It can also be a place where you can answer the question of a classmate. Also it allows me to focus my mind on one specific course at a time. So help me help you and the entire class by using D2L—Discussion—Email in lieu of emails to my UW-­‐Stout address. In the event of a matter you feel should be handled privately, feel free to contact me at my email address above or at the phone contacts provided. So in general think of D2L as also our email site between you and this instructor. As a general rule, I will visit our D2L class site on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday mornings. Typically no less than every 48-­‐hours during the work week (God willing). Unless there is some specific ongoing dialog or issues of concern, I will not be in D2L on the weekends. Certainly I will respond to questions and concerns if I’m logged in or checking email however I wish to convey a pattern that you can anticipate and protect our family time. I’ve provided my mobile for unusual situations, I trust you’ll use good professional judgment as to when that avenue is best; typically students call me when unanticipated events are occurring in their lives. I let you determine if that call is needed. Indeed I wish to be available and helpful. Hopefully this framework helps us both. EVALUATION Students will be evaluated based upon the following elements such as… 1. Present and discuss baseline and alternative future scenarios in relations to technology driven topics including the ability to articulate key uncertainties. 2. Apply social change theories to analysis of current conditions. 3. Conduct research in association with producing a quality systematic forecast. ASSIGNMENT SNAPSHOTS Introduction is a video and audio introduction about you to the class. One approach can be to use Jing, a screen capture program, that addresses the elements requested. You will also view and offer friendly feedback with five of more classmates after you’ve viewed their introduction. Readings quiz & discussions are online for each set of readings assigned. Each quiz will be open for multiple days. Responses can be viewed after the quiz closes; therefore we will not re-­‐open a quiz after it closes. The text resources can be used when taking the quiz. Question formats vary. Quizzes are generally 7-­‐12 points. Dependent on items, 20-­‐30 minutes to complete. Discussions will be used in lieu of quizzes for readings related by Gordon and Woody texts. Framework Forecasting Project is topic specific and semester-­‐long culminating project. The project aligns to the readings and comprises six segments that form the project whole. The segments are spread across the semester and are incorporated into the weekly work of the course. The essence of the project is for the learner to use a systematic process to prepare a forecast about the potential futures of a topic. These are processes used by small and large companies and organizations to form strategize for responding to anticipated and unanticipated change. Book review entails you proposing and reading a book that aligns with one or more course objectives AND involves a topic that you can articulate as important or helpful in your educational pursuits (post 2006 suggested). During the semester you provide two written reviews of your book; the first half and second half of the book accordingly. SPECIAL NEEDS Please inform the instructor if you have any special needs that should be addressed in context with this course. Any student with a qualifying disability is eligible for assistance. If you require an accommodation for a disability, please contact the Campus Disability Services, (206 Bowman Hall, 232-­‐2995, http://www.uwstout.edu/disability ) in a timely manner to assure that appropriate support and accommodations will be provided. Appropriate documentation of your disability and request of accommodations must be provided to be eligible for services. ACADEMIC HONESTY AND INTEGRITY The Board of Regents, administrators, faculty, academic staff and students of the University of Wisconsin System believe that academic honesty and integrity are fundamental to the mission of higher education and to the University of Wisconsin System. The university has a responsibility to promote academic honesty and integrity and to develop procedures to deal effectively with instances of academic dishonesty. Reference resources that may be reviewed to better understanding this issue include: UW-­‐Stout Policy regarding Academic Dishonesty (http://www.uwstout.edu/stusrv/dean/dishonesty.cfm) Questions about plagiarism, ideas, and other resources see http://www.plagiarism.org COURSE CONTENT OUTLINE 1. Change and contemporary technology (Objectives 1, 2) a) Sources of change; inbound, outbound i) Society, technology, economic, environmental, political (STEEP) b) Levels; individual, immediate, global c) Time horizon; short, medium, long-­‐term d) Rates; linear, exponential, asymptotic, cyclical e) Models; punctuated equilibrium, S-­‐curve, continuous, discontinuous 2. Future and anticipation (Objectives 2, 3) a) Prediction; anticipation, projection, plurality b) Assumption; accuracy, precision c) Drivers; probable, plausible, preferable 3. Social change (Objective 2) a) Arguments; evidence, assumptions, critical assumptions b) Theories; progress, development, technology, conflict, cycles, markets, power, evolution, emergence 4. Systems thinking—interaction, feedback, delay, level, contingency (Objectives 1, 3, 5) a) Control theory; cybernetics, causal models, system dynamics b) Complexity theory; structure, boundary, behavior c) Schemas and mental models i) Cybernetics; verbal, formal, simulated, validated ii) Complex adaptive systems (1) Dynamics; fixed, periodic, chaotic (2) Behaviors; manifestations (3) Systems; Wolfram’s system classes (4) Structure; tenants: parts, systems, connected, interaction, predictability 5. Forecasting (Objectives 3, 5) a) Chaos, complexity, criticality, choice b) Major technique categories i) Judgment – human judgment and estimation, including the Delphi method ii) Baseline – quantitative, trend extrapolation and time series decomposition iii) Fixed scenario – best-­‐case, worst-­‐case, or wildcards iv) Event sequences – branching structures, probability and relevance trees v) Backcasting – distant, plausible future, working backward, Horizon Mission Methodology vi) Dimensions of uncertainty – morphological analysis, Global Business Network-­‐-­‐2x2 matrix vii) Cross-­‐impact analysis – trend impact, potential events, Monte Carlo techniques viii) Systems modeling – systems dynamics, mathematical variables, econometrics 6. Critical Thinking (Objectives 4, 6) a) Inference, point, conclusion, interpretation b) Evidence, assumptions, alternative evidence, alternative assumptions 7. Scenario development-­‐Baseline framework forecasting (Objectives 4, 5, 6) a) Baseline; probable, surprise-­‐free, evidence-­‐based i) Definition ii) Current assessment iii) Driving forces and baseline future iv) Discontinuities, uncertainties, leading indicators b) Baseline analysis; support, critical or rhetorical analysis c) Alternative futures i) 2x2 matrix ii) Scanning iii) Information sources