Developing an Early Warning
Indicators System to Keep
Charlotte-Mecklenburg
Schools (CMS) Students on the
Path to High School
Graduation
Office of Accountability
Research, Evaluation, and Analytics
Part 1
EWI Project:
Overview, Analysis, &
Findings
Overview
The Early Warning Indicators (EWI)
System at CMS is used to support
students along the path to high school
graduation.
Overview
• EWI systems use predictors that are associated with
high school graduation to support students along the
graduation path
• Schools that use EWI systems can support off-track
students with appropriate interventions
• EWI systems have been developed in many school
districts and State Departments of Education
Overview
• CMS’ EWI system consists of an electronic database
located in the CMS “Data Warehouse”
• The system provides estimated probabilities of on-time
graduation for students in grades 6-12
• The system is able to generate customized schooland student-level reports
• Eventually, all K-12 students will be included
Overview
Our work on this project is informed by
research that has been conducted in
State Departments of Education and large
urban school districts, including CMS.
(e.g. Allensworth & Easton, 2005; Nield, Balfanz, & Herzog, 2007)
Overview
• Last summer, we met with many departments in CMS
to spread the word about the EWI system
• We gained initial feedback on our ideas and made
plans to convene EWI Working Groups in the Fall
• We hope these groups will meet periodically to discuss
the EWI System and related interventions
Overview
Overview
We have 3 main goals for today’s meeting:
1. Share the findings from our initial analysis
(focus on 6th and 9th grade)
2. Share CMS’EWI System
3. Discuss with the group intervention strategies
EWI Analysis
Sample: 2012-13 CMS Graduation Cohort
(n = 9,584 students)
Outcome: On-Time Graduation (GRAD_4YR)
Predictors: Four Categories
1. Student Achievement
2. Student Attendance
3. Student Behavior
4. Student Demographics
EWI Analysis
Method:
• We followed students’ progress from 6th grade
through high school, with an eye toward
identifying those predictors that best distinguished
between on-time graduates and non-graduates
•
We developed statistical models that use these
predictors to estimate the probability of on-time
graduation for individual students.
EWI Analysis
EWI Analysis
EWI Analysis
EWI Analysis
EWI Analysis
EWI Analysis
EWI Analysis
EWI Analysis: Next Steps
• Expand the current EWI system to include
estimated probabilities for students expected
to graduate in 5-years
• School-level predictors
• Refine system for subgroup student
populations (e.g., divide ELL students into
different groups in order to refine analysis):
1. Long-term ELLs
2. Short-term ELLs
Part 2
CMS’
EWI System
Acknowledgement
We would like to thank Wisconsin’s
Department of Public Instruction for their
collaboration with CMS as we developed
an Early Warning Indicator System.
CMS Portal Example
CMS Portal Example
CMS Portal Example
CMS Portal Example
CMS Portal Example
CMS Portal Example
CMS Portal Example
Other EWI System Considerations
• Link other tables (e.g., Cognitive Abilities Test
[CogAT]; Ed Plan) to EWI portal for easy data analysis
and intervention planning
• Include Intervention dashboard so users can identify
what interventions are being implemented for students
Next Steps
• Quarterly meetings with EWI Working
Groups
Part 3
Interventions
Interventions
• CMS EWI Action Guide:
 “Promising” Practices
• Diagnostic recommendations
• Targeted Interventions recommendations
• School-wide Interventions
recommendations
 Dropout Prevention/Graduation Promotion
Programs
Interventions
• CMS EWI Action Guide:
 Table 1: Proven and Promising Programs
by School Type
 Table 2: Evidence-based Programs for
Students At-risk of Dropping out or not
Graduating on-time
 Dropout Prevention Resources
 Next Steps: Include interventions being
used within the district
Interventions
Interventions
• We piloted EWI with one learning community
during Q1 of the current school year:
 Title 1, Middle School
 Title 1, High School
 Title 1, High School, Magnet
 Title 1, Personalized Learning Elementary
School
Contact Information
– Questions/Feedback?
• EWI System Methods, Analysis, and Interpretation
– Contact the Office of Accountability’s Research,
Evaluation, and Analytics team
• Lindsay Messinger – lindsay1.messinger@cms.k12.nc.us
• Ellissa Brooks Nelson - ed.brooksnelson@cms.k12.nc.us
• Or for practical guidance, contact:
• Jennifer Bagdan – jennifer.kauffman@cms.k12.nc.us
Questions/Comments