Research Report
March 7, 2006
The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized
Migrant Population in the U.S.
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Jeffrey S. Passel
Senior Research Associate, Pew Hispanic Center
Analysis of the March 2005 Current Population Survey shows that there were
11.1 million unauthorized in the United States a year ago. Based on analysis of other
data sources that offer indications of the pace of growth in the foreign-born population,
the Center developed an estimate of 11.5 to 12 million for the unauthorized population as
of March 2006.
In the March 2005 estimate two-thirds (66%) of the unauthorized population had been in
the country for ten years or less, and the largest share, 40% of the total or 4.4 million
people had been in the country five years or less. There were 5.4 million adult males in
the unauthorized population in 2005, accounting for 49% of the total. There were 3.9
million adult females accounting for 35% of the population. There were 1.8 million
children who were unauthorized, 16% of the total. In addition, there were 3.1 million
children who are U.S. citizens by birth living in families in which the head of the family
or a spouse was unauthorized.
About 7.2 million unauthorized migrants were employed in March 2005, accounting for
about 4.9% of the civilian labor force. They made up a large share of all workers in a few
more detailed occupational categories, including 24% of all workers employed in farming
occupations, 17% in cleaning, 14% in construction and 12% in food preparation.
About the Author: Dr. Jeffrey S. Passel, senior research associate at the Pew Hispanic Center, is widely
recognized for his general demographic expertise and as one of the nation’s premier experts on
immigration. In 2005 Dr. Passel was made a fellow of the American Statistical Association for his
outstanding contributions to the measurement of population composition and change. Prior to joining the
Center in 2005, Dr. Passel was principal research associate at the Urban Institute.
About the Pew Hispanic Center: Founded in 2001, the Pew Hispanic Center is a nonpartisan research
organization supported by The Pew Charitable Trusts, a Philadelphia-based charity. The Pew Hispanic
Center’s mission is to improve understanding of the diverse Hispanic population and to chronicle Latinos'
growing impact on the nation. The Pew Hispanic Center is a project of the Pew Research Center, a
nonpartisan "fact tank" in Washington, DC, that provides information on the issues, attitudes, and trends
shaping America and the world; it does not advocate for or take positions on policy issues.
Pew Hispanic Center
A Pew Research Center Project
1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 • Washington, DC 20036-5610 • Phone: 202-419-3600 • Fax: 202-419-3608
www.pewhispanic.org
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page i
Executive Summary
The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that there are currently 11.5 to 12 million
unauthorized migrants living in the United States.
This estimate is based on data from Census 2000, the March 2005 Current
Population Survey (CPS) and the monthly Current Population Surveys through January
2006. Analysis of the March 2005 CPS shows that there were 11.1 million unauthorized
in the United States a year ago. Based on the monthly Current Population Surveys
conducted since then and other data sources that offer indications of the pace of growth in
the foreign-born population, the Center developed an estimate of 11.5 to 12 million for
the unauthorized population as of March 2006. See “Note on Methods and Terminology”
below for definitions, data sources,
and methods.
Unauthorized Migrants
Using a well-established
methodology, this report offers
estimates for the size and certain
characteristics, such as age and
national origins, of the unauthorized
population. Major findings include:
Numbers and Origins
This report uses the term “unauthorized migrant” to
mean a person who resides in the United States but who is
not a U.S. citizen, has not been admitted for permanent
residence, and is not in a set of specific authorized temporary
statuses permitting longer-term residence and work. (See
Passel, Van Hook, and Bean 2004 for further discussion.)
Two groups account for the vast majority of this
population: (a) those who entered the country without valid
documents, including people crossing the Southwestern
border clandestinely; and (b) those who entered with valid
visas but overstayed their visas’ expiration or otherwise
violated the terms of their admission. Some migrants in this
estimate have legal authorization to live and work in the
United States on a temporary basis. These include migrants
with temporary protected status (TPS) and some migrants
with unresolved asylum claims. Together they may account
for as much as 10% of the estimate.
•
The number of unauthorized
migrants living in the
United States has
continued to increase
steadily for several years,
reaching an estimated
11.1 million based on the
March 2005 compared to
an estimate of 8.4 million
based on Census 2000.
•
Since 2000, growth in the unauthorized population has averaged more than
500,000 per year. Based on evidence that this trend has persisted, the current
unauthorized population can be estimated at between 11.5 and 12 million.
•
In the March 2005 estimate two-thirds (66%) of the unauthorized population had
been in the country for ten years or less, and the largest share, 40% of the total
or 4.4 million people had been in the country five years or less.
•
Unauthorized migrants accounted for 30% of the foreign-born population in 2005.
Another 28% were legal permanent residents, and 31% were U.S. citizens by
naturalization.
•
Most of unauthorized migrants came from Mexico. There were an estimated
6.2 million unauthorized Mexican migrants in 2005, or 56% of the
unauthorized population.
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page ii
•
About 2.5 million unauthorized migrants, or 22% of the total, have come from the
rest of Latin America, primarily from Central America. Unauthorized
migrants from Mexico and the rest of Latin America represented 78% of the
unauthorized population in 2005.
•
Between 2000 and 2005 the number of unauthorized migrants from Mexico
increased by about 1.5 million. Other large increases occurred among
unauthorized migrants from Central America (+465,000) and South and East
Asia (+365,000).
Family Characteristics
•
There were 5.4 million adult males in the unauthorized population in 2005,
accounting for 49% of the total. There were 3.9 million adult females
accounting for 35% of the population. In addition, there were 1.8 million
children in the unauthorized population, or 16% of the total.
•
Among adults, males make up 58% of the unauthorized population while females
make up 42%.
•
As of 2005, there were 6.6 million families in which either the head of the family
or the spouse was unauthorized. These unauthorized families contained
14.6 million persons.
•
Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the children living in unauthorized families are
U.S. citizens by birth, an estimated 3.1 million children in 2005.
Labor Force Characteristics
•
Unauthorized migrants accounted for about 4.9% of the civilian labor force in
March 2005, or about 7.2 million workers out of a labor force of 148 million.
•
Unauthorized workers are employed in a variety of occupations, although the
distribution of the unauthorized workforce across occupations differs from
that of native-born workers. For example, nearly a third (31%) of
unauthorized workers were employed in service occupations compared to onesixth (16%) of native workers in March 2005. Unauthorized migrants are
underrepresented in white-collar occupations.
•
About 19% of unauthorized workers were employed in construction and
extractive occupations, 15% in production, installation and repair and 4% in
farming.
•
Unauthorized migrants make up a large share of all workers in a few more
detailed occupational categories. They were 24% of all workers employed in
farming occupations, 17% in cleaning, 14% in construction and 12% in food
preparation industries. Within those categories, unauthorized workers were a
very large share of all workers in certain specific occupations. For example,
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page iii
the unauthorized were 36% of all insulation workers and 29% of all roofers
and drywall installers, 27% of all butchers and other food processing workers.
•
The concentration of unauthorized workers in broad industries is not as marked as
the concentration in broad occupation groups. Only in “leisure & hospitality”
and in “construction” does the share of unauthorized workers greatly exceed
the share of natives. About 1 in 5 unauthorized workers was in the
construction industry (20%) and 1 in 6 was in the leisure & hospitality
industry (17%). Only about 7%–8% of native workers was in each of these
industries.
•
There are a few detailed industries with high concentrations and significant
numbers of unauthorized workers. The unauthorized were 21% of the
workers in private household industries. They were between 12% and 14% of
all the workers in food manufacturing, farming, furniture manufacturing,
construction, textiles, and food services.
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Table of Contents
Executive Summary.............................................................................................i
Numbers and Origins ................................................................................................................i
Family Characteristics..............................................................................................................ii
Labor Force Characteristics.....................................................................................................ii
Part 1 — Unauthorized Migrants: The Numbers...............................................1
How the estimates are formulated .......................................................................................... 1
Current estimates.................................................................................................................... 1
Most unauthorized migrants arrived in the past decade ......................................................... 2
The unauthorized are 30% of the foreign born population ..................................................... 3
National origins: Mexico dominates the flow........................................................................... 4
Part 2 — Unauthorized Migrants: Families and Children ................................6
Gender and family composition .............................................................................................. 6
Families with children.............................................................................................................. 8
Part 3 — Unauthorized Migrants: The Workforce ............................................9
High levels of employment for men but not for women........................................................... 9
Occupations .......................................................................................................................... 10
Industries............................................................................................................................... 13
Note on Methods and Terminology .................................................................14
Getting the Number............................................................................................................... 14
Who is Legal ......................................................................................................................... 15
Who is Unauthorized............................................................................................................. 16
Augmentation of the CPS ..................................................................................................... 17
References ........................................................................................................17
Figures
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Figure 7.
Figure 8.
Unauthorized Migrants by Period of Arrival: March 2005 ................................ 2
Trend in Unauthorized Migrants Living in the United States: 1980–2005........ 3
Legal Status of Foreign-Born Population: March 2005 .................................... 4
Country of Birth of the Unauthorized Migrant Population: March 2005............ 5
Unauthorized Migrant Population by Region of Birth: March 2005 .................. 6
Demographic Composition of Unauthorized Families: March 2005................. 7
Unauthorized Families Classified by Composition: March 2005...................... 8
Labor Force Participation Rate by Gender, Nativity, and Legal Status:
March 2005 ..................................................................................................... 9
Figure 9. Distribution of Unauthorized Workers by Major Occupation Group:
March 2005 ................................................................................................... 10
Figure 10. Proportion of Workers who are Unauthorized for Selected Detailed
Occupation Groups: March 2005.................................................................. 11
Figure 11. Distribution of Unauthorized Workers by Major Industry: March 2005......... 13
Figure 12. Proportion of Workers who are Unauthorized for Selected Detailed
Industries: March 2005 ................................................................................. 14
Table
Table 1. Unauthorized Migrant Share of Selected Specific Occupations: March 2005. 12
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 1
Part 1 — Unauthorized Migrants: The Numbers
How the estimates are formulated
Neither the Census Bureau nor any other U.S. government agency counts the
unauthorized migrant population or defines its demographic characteristics based on
specific enumeration. The “residual method” is, however, a widely-accepted
methodology for estimating the size and certain characteristics, such as age and national
origins, of the undocumented population based on official data. This methodology
essentially subtracts the estimated legal-immigrant population from the total foreign-born
population and treats the residual as a source of data on the unauthorized migrant
population (Passel, Van Hook, and Bean 2004).
The estimates reported here are based on this methodology applied to data from
the March 2005 Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS, a monthly survey of about
50,000 households conducted jointly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the
Census Bureau, is best known as the source for monthly unemployment statistics. Every
March both the sample size and the questionnaire of the CPS are augmented to produce
the Annual Social and Economic Supplement, which provides additional data on several
additional subjects, including the foreign-born population. See “Note on Methods and
Terminology” below for definitions, data sources, and methods. A report based on data
from the March 2004 CPS was published by the Center on June 14, 2005 and can be
accessed at the following link: Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics
This methodology uses the term “unauthorized migrant” to mean a person who
resides in the United States, but who is not a U.S. citizen, has not been admitted for
permanent residence, and is not in a set of specific authorized temporary statuses
permitting longer-term residence and work. (See Passel, Van Hook, and Bean 2004 for
further discussion.) Two groups account for the vast majority of this population:
(a) those who entered the country without valid documents, including people crossing the
Southwestern border clandestinely; and (b) those who entered with valid visas but
overstayed their visas’ expiration or otherwise violated the terms of their admission.
Some individuals in our estimated unauthorized migrant population initially belonged to
one of these groups but have obtained a temporary legal authorization to live and work in
the United States. These individuals, many of whom are likely to revert to an
unauthorized status, include migrants with temporary protected status (TPS) and others
with unresolved asylum claims. Together they may account for as much as 10% of the
estimate. In assessing potential programs for dealing with the unauthorized population, it
seems appropriate to treat the quasi-legal group as part of the unauthorized program since
a significant share of this group would probably be eligible to participate in any program
that might lead to regularization of their status, such as a temporary worker program or an
earned legalization program. (For an opposite view, see Martin 2005.)
Current estimates
As of March 2005, there were an estimated 11.1 million unauthorized migrants
living in the United States. A comparison to past estimates derived with the same
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 2
methodology shows that the undocumented population has grown rapidly in recent years.
There were 8.4 million unauthorized migrants living in the United States in April 2000
according to estimates derived from Census 2000 (Passel, Van Hook, and Bean 2004).
Thus, average annual growth over the 5-year period since 2000 was more than 500,000
per year. This number reflects the number of new unauthorized migrants arriving minus
those who either die, return to their country of origin, or gain legal status. Data from the
monthly Current Population Surveys conducted since March 2005, as well as other
evidence such as the number of apprehensions by the Border Patrol, indicate that the
unauthorized flow is continuing. Assuming that the rate of growth evident between
Census 2000 and the March 2005 CPS held steady, the best estimate for March 2006 is
between 11.5 million and 12 million for the current number of unauthorized migrants.
Most unauthorized migrants arrived in the past decade
More than 40% of the unauthorized population in 2005 or 4.4 million persons had
been in the country since 2000 (Figure 1). Another 26% or 2.9 million people in the
2005 estimate arrived in the 5 years before that. Thus, about two-thirds of unauthorized
migrants have been in the country less than 10 years.
Most Unauthorized
Arrived Since 1990
2000-05
4.4 million – 40%
1980s
(850,000 per year)
1.8 million -- 24%
(180,000 per year)
1995-1999
1990-94
2.9 million -- 26%
2.0 million -- 18%
(575,000 per year)
(400,000 per year)
11.1 Million in March 2005
Figure 1. Unauthorized Migrants by Period of Arrival: March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions. See Passel, Van Hook, and Bean 2006 for
discussion of methodology.
The March 2005 estimates are consistent with earlier findings which show that the
pace of the unauthorized arrivals accelerated at the end of the 1990s and the early years
of this decade (Passel and Suro 2005). Between 2000 and 2005 the number of new
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 3
arrivals averaged 850,000 a year. Note that this number is higher than the annual net
increase to the population because it only measures the number of unauthorized migrants
being added to the population and does not subtract the number who either die, return
home or gain legal status.
Unauthorized Clearly at
New High — Trend Uncertain
Millions of Unauthorized Migrants Living in the U.S.
11.1
(2005)
8.4
4
3
5
3.9
3.3
2.5
4-80 1-82
6-86
6-89
10-92
10-96
4-00
3-05
Figure 2. Trend in Unauthorized Migrants Living in the United States:
1980–2005
Source: Developed from a variety of previously published estimates. See “References”
below.
The unauthorized are 30% of the foreign born population
The foreign-born population totaled 37 million in the March 2005 estimates,
including: 11.5 million naturalized citizens (31%), 10.5 million legal permanent resident
(LPR) aliens (28%), 2.6 million refugees (7%) and 1.3 million temporary legal migrants
such as students and temporary workers (3%). The rest of the foreign-born population
11.1 million or 30% are unauthorized migrants.
[Note that some of the 2.6 million refugees have naturalized. If the refugees are
grouped with LPRs and naturalized citizens, LPRs represent 11.8 million or 32% of all
immigrants and naturalized citizens account for 12.8 million or 35%.]
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 4
Legal Status of Immigrants
Legal Permanent
Resident (LPR)
Aliens
(10.5 million) 28%
Naturalized
Citizens (former LPRs)
(11.5 million) 31%
Unauthorized
Migrants
(11.1 million) 30%
Temporary Legal
Residents
(1.3 million) 3%
Refugee Arrivals-(Post-’80)
(2.6 million) 7%
37.0 Million Foreign-Born in 2005
Figure 3. Legal Status of Foreign-Born Population: March 2005
Source and Notes: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current
Population Survey, adjusted for omissions. Note that the temporary legal
migrant population shown in this figure includes an adjustment for CPS
omissions that is not built into the other tabulations. Thus, the foreign-born
population shown here is slightly larger than in other figures. See Passel, Van
Hook, and Bean 2006 for discussion of methodology.
National origins: Mexico dominates the flow
Most unauthorized migrants come from Mexico. There were 6.2 million
unauthorized migrants from Mexico in 2005, or 56% of the total, according to the
CPS-based estimates (Figure 4). The Mexican-born population in the United States,
including both legal and unauthorized migrants, has grown by about 500,000 people a
year for the past decade. Of the Mexican migrants in the U.S. less than 10 years, the Pew
Hispanic Center estimates that approximately 80 to 85% are unauthorized.
About 2.5 million unauthorized migrants had come from the rest of Latin America
in 2005, with most of those from Central America. Taken together, unauthorized
migrants from Mexico and Latin America represented 78% of the unauthorized
population in 2005. There were about 1.5 million unauthorized migrants from the Asian
continent in 2005, representing about 13% of the total. Europe and Canada accounted for
600,000, or 6%, and Africa and other countries for about 400,000, or 3%.
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 5
Unauthorized Are
Largely Latin American
Other
Latin America -- 22%
Mexico -- 56%
2.5 million
6.2 million
Asia -- 13%
1.5 million
Europe &
Canada -- 6%
0.6 million
Africa & Other -- 3%
0.4 million
11.1 Million in March 2005
Figure 4. Country of Birth of the Unauthorized Migrant Population:
March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions.
While the shares from different regions have hardly changed in the last few years,
between 2000 and 2005, the number of unauthorized Mexicans increased by 1.5 million,
from 4.7 million to 6.2 million (Figure 5). During the same time period, the number of
unauthorized migrants from Central America increased by 465,000, to 1.4 million; those
from South and East Asia by 365,000, to 1.4 million; and those from South American by
160,000, to 705,000.
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 6
Mexican & Latin American
Unauthorized Increase
Unauthorized Migrant
Population (in thousands)
6,180
4,701
2000 Census (8.4 million)
2005 CPS (11.1 million)
1,363
1,371
897
409
Mexico
Central
America
705 528 630
406 545
Caribbean
South
America
Europe &
Canada
1,008
114
144
Middle East
(Afr. & Asia)
176
South &
East Asia
327
All Other
Figure 5. Unauthorized Migrant Population by Region of Birth:
March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey and Census 2000 5-Percent Public-Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), both
adjusted for omissions.
Part 2 — Unauthorized Migrants: Families and Children
Gender and family composition
Because unauthorized migration is driven primarily by the search for better wages
(Kochhar 2005), the undocumented migrant is commonly thought of as a young, male
worker usually unaccompanied by a wife or children. In fact, the full portrait of the
unauthorized migrant population is more varied. Unauthorized migrants also live as
couples (sometimes with a spouse who is a U.S. citizen or legal immigrant), and many of
these couples have children. Some children are U.S. citizens and some are unauthorized,
and sometimes there are both U.S. citizen and unauthorized children in the same family.
There are also hundreds of thousands of single women.
The unauthorized population included about 5.4 million adult males which is a
little less than half of the 11.1 million total in the March 2005 estimate. There were more
unauthorized adult men than women, with those 5.4 million males accounting for 58% of
the 8.8 million unauthorized adults in the March 2005 estimates. (See Figure 6.)
Approximately half of the adult men, or 2.4 million, were “solo males,” i.e., in the U.S.
without wives or children (Figure 7).
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 7
There were approximately 3.9 million adult women in the unauthorized migrant
population, representing 42% of the adults in the March 2005 estimate. Among adult
women, only one in five, or about 730,000, is “solo”— in the U.S. without a husband or
children (Figure 7).
Unauthorized Families’
Mixed Composition
Unauthorized
Children
1.8 million
16% of all
unauthorized
Adult Men
5.4 million
58% of Adults
U.S. Citizen
Children
3.1 million
64% of kids
Other Adults—375,000
Adult Women
3.9 million
42% of Adults
14.6 million in Unauthorized Families
Figure 6. Demographic Composition of Unauthorized Families:
March 2005
Source and Notes: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current
Population Survey, adjusted for omissions. An “unauthorized family” is one
where the head or spouse is an unauthorized migrant. Families, as defined here
as basically nuclear families—couples, either married or unmarried, with
children (if any). Unrelated single individuals are also treated as a “family.”
There were 6.6 million unauthorized families in March 2005—defined here as a
family unit (or solo individual) in which the head or spouse is unauthorized. Since
unauthorized families can include U.S. citizens and legal residents as well as
unauthorized migrants, the total number of persons in unauthorized families was
14.6 million, a figure that includes the 11.1 million unauthorized migrants.
A majority of these unauthorized families—3.9 million, or 59%—did not have
children (Figure 7). They were made up of single adults, couples, or some other
combination of adult relatives. The vast majority of these—about 3.2 million of the
families without children—were solo individuals.
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 8
“Mixed Status” Families
Common Among Unauthorized
Couples
10% -- 630,000
With Only
US Citizen Children
23%
1.5 million families
“Mixed”
Solo Women
11% -- 730,000
With Only
Non-Citizen
Children
11%
No Children
59%
3.9 million
families
Solo Men
37%
2.4-2.5 million
725,000 families
With Both
US Citizen &
Non-Citizen Children
7% -- 460,000 families (“Mixed”)
Other
1.5% -- 90,000
6.6 Million Unauthorized Families
Figure 7. Unauthorized Families Classified by Composition:
March 2005
Source and Notes: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current
Population Survey, adjusted for omissions. An “unauthorized family” is one
where the head or spouse is an unauthorized migrant. See text, Figure 6, Passel
2005, and Passel, Van Hook, and Bean 2004 for definitions and discussion.
Families with children
Unauthorized families with children come in many combinations of legal and
illegal statuses, both among the parents and their offspring. Of the 14.6 million people in
authorized families in the March 2005 estimates, there were approximately 4.9 million
children. Of these, about 3.1 million children, or 64% of all the children in unauthorized
families, were American citizens because they were born in the United States. About
1.8 million of the children in these families were themselves unauthorized. Thus, children
make up 16% of the entire unauthorized population of 11.1 million in the March 2005
estimates. (See Figure 6.)
Out of the total of 6.6 million unauthorized families, a significant share can be
classified as being of “mixed status”—in other words, families in which at least one
parent is unauthorized and at least one child was born in the United States. There were
1.5 million unauthorized families in which all the children were born in the United States.
These families represent about one-quarter of all unauthorized families and more than
half of unauthorized families with children. Another 460,000 families, or 7% of
unauthorized families, had both U.S. citizen children and children who were
unauthorized. Taken together, these mixed status families represent about one-third of
all unauthorized families and five out of six unauthorized families with children. Finally,
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
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725,000 families, or 11% of all unauthorized families, had only unauthorized children.
(See Figure 7.)
Part 3 — Unauthorized Migrants: The Workforce
High levels of employment for men but not for women
There were approximately 7.2 million unauthorized migrants in the civilian labor
force in March 2005, accounting for about 4.9% of the U.S. workforce of 148 million
workers.
Unauthorized male migrants are more likely to work when compared with males
who are either legal immigrants or native-born. A number of factors contribute to this
higher rate of participation in the workforce. Unauthorized migrants, for one, are much
younger than other groups and older workers are more likely to be retired and disabled.
Since fewer unauthorized migrants fall into the older age group within the workforce,
more are likely to be working. Another significant factor affecting workforce
participation is college attendance. Again, few unauthorized migrants attend college, so
they are more likely than other groups to participate in the labor force.
Among unauthorized migrants of working age (18 to 64 years old), 94% of males
were in the civilian labor force, compared with 86% of male legal immigrants and 83% 0f
native-born males. (See Figure 8.)
Unauthorized Men Work More;
Women Work Less Than Others
Percent in Labor Force, 2005
94%
86%
83%
Unauthorized Migrants
Legal Immigrants
Natives
72%
63%
54%
Adult Men (18-64)
Adult Women (18-64)
Figure 8. Labor Force Participation Rate by Gender, Nativity, and
Legal Status: March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions.
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 10
Unauthorized females, on the other hand, were less likely to be in the labor force
than legal immigrants or native-born women. About 54% of unauthorized women were
in the labor force, compared with 63% for legal immigrants and 72% for native-born
women. The lower representation for women is likely due to several factors. The
principal reason is the presence of young children in the family. Secondly, married
women are less likely to participate in the workforce than unmarried women. Immigrant
women are more likely to marry than natives. And, because of higher fertility rates,
immigrant women are more likely to have children.
Occupations
Unauthorized workers are employed in a variety of occupations throughout the
labor force, although the distribution of the unauthorized workforce across occupations
differs from that of native-born workers.
Unauthorized in Low Wage &
Low Education Occupations
Management, Business, &
Professional 10% – (35%)
Service Occupations
31% – (16%)
Transportation &
Material Moving
8% – (6%)
Production,
Installation, &
Repair
15% – (10%)
Construction & Extractive
19% – (6%)
Sales & Admin.
Support
12% – (27%)
Farming, etc. 4% – (0.5%)
7.2 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2005
Figure 9. Distribution of Unauthorized Workers by Major Occupation
Group: March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions. The distribution of native workers across
occupation groups is shown in parentheses.
Unauthorized workers are notably underrepresented in white-collar occupations.
“Management, business, and professional occupations” and “Sales and administrative
support occupations” accounted for more than six of ten native workers (62%) but less
than one-quarter of unauthorized workers (23%) in March 2005. On the other hand,
unauthorized migrants are much more likely to be in major occupation groups that
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
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require little education or do not have licensing requirements. The share of unauthorized
employed in agricultural occupations (4%) and construction and extractive occupations
(19%) was about three times the share of native workers in these types of jobs. The share
in service occupations (31%) was about double that of native workers (16%). (See
Figure 9.)
Another way to look at the employment of unauthorized is by measuring how
much of an occupational category is filled by unauthorized workers. In a few
occupational categories unauthorized migrants make up a large share of all workers
employed in those categories. So, although only 4% of unauthorized workers were
employed in farming occupations, they make up 24% of all workers employed in those
occupations. Elsewhere, the unauthorized were 17% of the workforce in cleaning
occupations, 14% in construction and 12% in food preparation industries. (See
Figure 10.)
Most Concentrated Occupations
Percent Unauthorized within Occupation Group, 2005
24%
"Migrant" occupations
"Native" occupations
Farm, fish,
and forest
occs.
Overall Proportion
Of Workers Who Are
Unauthorized —
12%
4.9%
9%
7%
Transport
`
Production
Food Prep.
Construction
14%
Cleaning
Farming
17%
Building Construction Food prep. Production Transport &
cleaning & & extractive & serving occupations
material
maint. occs.
occs.
occs.
mov. occs.
2%
All other
occs.
Figure 10. Proportion of Workers who are Unauthorized for Selected
Detailed Occupation Groups: March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions.
The CPS collects extensive employment data which allows a still more detailed
look at the occupations of the unauthorized. There are a variety of detailed occupations
in which unauthorized workers make up more than a quarter of all the workers employed.
Of course, these specific occupations tend to be found in the occupation groups described
above. Moreover, they tend to share the characteristics noted earlier: little or no formal
education is required; no licensing is involved; and major preparation can involve
on-the-job training. Table 1 shows specific occupations with at least 50,000 workers
nationally and in which the representation of unauthorized workers was more than
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 12
three times their 4.9% share of the civilian workforce. The unauthorized represented:
36% of all insulation workers; 29% of all roofers, drywall installers, and miscellaneous
agricultural workers; 27% of all butchers, other food processing workers, and
construction helpers.
Table 1. Unauthorized Migrant Share of Selected Specific
Occupations: March 2005
(In thousands)
Detailed Occupation
Total, Civilian Labor Force (with an occupation)
Insulation workers
Miscellaneous agricultural workers
Roofers
Drywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers
Helpers, construction trades
Total
Workers
Unauthorized Workers
Number
Share
148,615
7,255
4.9%
56
839
325
285
145
20
247
93
79
40
36%
29%
29%
28%
27%
Butchers and other meat, poultry, and
fish processing workers
Pressers, textile, garment, and related materials
Grounds maintenance workers
Construction laborers
Brickmasons, blockmasons, and stonemasons
322
87
27%
83
1,204
1,614
198
21
299
400
49
26%
25%
25%
25%
Dishwashers
Helpers--production workers
Maids and housekeeping cleaners
Graders and sorters of agricultural products
Painters, construction and maintenance
367
64
1,531
74
768
85
15
342
16
167
23%
23%
22%
22%
22%
141
29
21%
54
11
20%
367
75
20%
548
427
111
85
20%
20%
330
2,218
64
72
292
66
436
12
13
51
20%
20%
19%
18%
18%
758
206
128
30
17%
15%
Cement masons, concrete finishers, and terrazzo
workers
Computer hardware engineers
Packaging and filling machine operators and
tenders
Packers and packagers, hand
Cleaners of vehicles and equipment
Carpet, floor, and tile installers and finishers
Cooks
Parking lot attendants
Upholsterers
Sewing machine operators
Food preparation workers
Laundry and dry-cleaning workers
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions. Occupations shown have at least 50,000 workers
and unauthorized share at least three times the national share (4.9%)
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
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Industries
A somewhat different picture emerges from looking at employment data by
industry rather than occupation. The concentration of unauthorized workers in major
industries is not as marked as the concentration in broad occupation groups. Only in
“leisure & hospitality” and in “construction” does the share of unauthorized workers
greatly exceed the share of natives. About one in five unauthorized workers was in the
construction industry (20%) and one in six is in the leisure & hospitality industry (17%)
in March 2005. Only about 7%–8% of native workers were in each of these industries.
Neither of these industries tends to require formal credentials from many of their
prospective workers. Further, there are many occupations in these industries that require
very little formal education. In several industries including services, wholesale and retail
trade, manufacturing, and professional and business services, the unauthorized are
employed in roughly the same shares of natives. (See Figure 11.)
Unauthorized Over-Represented in
a Few Industries
Leisure &
Hospitality
17% – (8%)
Construction
20% – (7%)
All Other
Industries
17% – (43%)
Other Services
7% – (5%)
Wholesale & Retail Trade
11% – (15%)
Manufacturing
14% – (11%)
Professional & Business
Services 13% – (10%)
7.2 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2005
Figure 11. Distribution of Unauthorized Workers by Major Industry:
March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions. The distribution of native workers across
industries is shown in parentheses.
There are fewer detailed industries with high concentrations and significant numbers
of unauthorized workers than detailed occupations. The range of credential and
educational requirements is generally broader for industries than for occupations.
Nonetheless, there are some industries in which unauthorized workers make up a sizeable
share of the labor force.
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 14
The unauthorized were 21% of the workers in private household industries. They
were between 12% and 14% of all the workers in food manufacturing, farming, furniture
manufacturing, construction, textiles, and food services. (See Figure 12.)
Most Concentrated Industries
Percent Unauthorized within Industry, 2005
21%
"Migrant" industries
Private Food mfg.
households
Agriculture
Furniture Construction Textile
mfg.
mfg.
10%
Overall Proportion
Of Workers Who Are
Unauthorized —
4.9%
6%
Mfg.
Hotels
Admin.
`
Food Serv.
Textiles
12% 12% 12%
11%
Construction
Furniture
Farming
14% 13% 13%
Food Mfg.
Private HH’s
"Native" industries
Food
Admin & Accom- Other Mig.
Services Support modation
Ind.
Serv.
2%
Other
(Native) Ind..
Figure 12. Proportion of Workers who are Unauthorized for Selected
Detailed Industries: March 2005
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of augmented March 2005 Current Population
Survey, adjusted for omissions.
Note on Methods and Terminology
Getting the Number
The estimate of unauthorized workers is derived by using a variant of a basic
“residual” method. The method relies on exclusion. In other words, the unauthorized
population consists of persons and groups not included in the authorized population. To
reach that number, the first step is to develop an estimate for the legal, foreign-born
population. That estimate is based on admissions into the country provided by the
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and its predecessor, the Immigration and
Naturalization Service (INS), as well on the number of refugees admitted and the number
of asylum applications granted.
After allowing for legal temporary migrants and for legal immigrants missed in
the Census or the yearly March Supplement to the CPS, the initial estimate of the
unauthorized population covered in the survey is derived by subtracting the estimated
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March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 15
legal population counted from the Census or CPS figure for the foreign-born population.
The initial number of unauthorized migrants is then adjusted upward to account for
omissions. All calculations are done by country or region of birth, age, sex, period of
arrival and state or region of residence.
The residual method has been used for several decades to measure unauthorized
migration to the United States. Specifically, some of the first sound empirical estimates
(Passel 1986 and Warren and Passel 1987) were arrived at by applying residual
methodology to the 1980 Census. Variants of the residual method have been used or
discussed by the Census Bureau, the Panel on Immigration Studies, the Bi-National
(U.S.-Mexico) Study, the Commission on Immigration Reform, the Immigration and
Naturalization Service, and several other organizations and researchers. Recently, the
DHS has released estimates using a similar methodology (Warren 2003; also, Warren
2001 for earlier variants).
Although the residual method has been applied to previous March CPSs (e.g.,
2004—Passel 2005; 2003—Capps et al. 2005; 2002—Passel, Capps, and Fix, 2004), the
statistical properties of the residual estimates make it very difficult to use estimates from
successive CPSs to measure year-to-year changes. Specifically, most of the sampling
variance of the total foreign-born population is part of the variance of the residual
estimate of unauthorized migrants. This property means that the variance of the measure
of annual change is quite large. Nonetheless, the series of annual estimates provides
indications of overall trends and the difference in unauthorized population estimates
separated by several years can provide information on average annual change. In this
report, we use a residual estimate based on Census 2000 together with the CPS-based
estimate for March 2005 to assess change over the five-year interval.
Who is Legal
•
Persons who arrived before 1980 are all assumed to be legal by 2000.
•
Persons who are already in legal status in the US and “adjust” to legal permanent
residence. These are added to the legal population in the year they receive
their permanent residency (unless they have already been counted in other
groups listed here); however, they are counted as “arriving” in the U.S. in the
earlier when they arrived in their previous legal status.
•
“New Arrivals,” or persons getting green cards as they enter the U.S. These are
counted in the year they arrive (unless they are already counted in other
groups listed here)
•
Persons who acquired legal status under the Immigration Reform and Control Act
of 1986 (IRCA) are included as legal when they obtain their legal permanent
residency; their year of arrival is based on survey data of this group.
•
Cubans, Haitians and other entrants, Amerasians and various groups of parolees
are included as legal when approved and not when they received their legal
permanent residency. The same applies to those who receive asylum
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
•
Page 16
Refugees are counted in the year they arrived in the U.S. and not when they
receive legal permanent residency.
See Passel, Van Hook, and Bean 2004, 2006 for a more detailed explanation of the
methodology.
Who is Unauthorized
Virtually all unauthorized migrants fall into two categories: those who overstayed
their visas or those classified by the government as “entries without inspection,” or EWIs.
Visa overstayers likely represent between 25% and 40% of the unauthorized migrants.
There are also various administrative categories that are not included in the
estimated legal foreign-born population. Many people are classified as having
Employment Authorization Documents, or EADs, that are issued by the Department of
Homeland Security and thus could be considered “authorized” in some sense.
There are an estimated 1 million to 1.5 million people who fall into the
unauthorized category but are under several “quasi-legal” categories. Some examples
include persons with Temporary Protective Status, or TPS, and those with Extended
Voluntary Departure, or EVD, as well as those applying under these statutes. Together,
these migrants may account for 300,000 to 400,000 unauthorized persons.
Another 250,000 persons have applied for asylum but have not had their cases
adjudicated. Although some may have their applications approved and may eventually
receive legal permanent residency, many and perhaps most will not. A third group not
included in the estimate of legal residents is made up of persons who have employment
authorization and are waiting for “green cards” or LPR status, but whose status is not yet
final. There are about 600,000 people in the U.S. who have applied for legal permanent
residency but are waiting for them to be issued. And finally, there are about 100,000
persons who are immediate relatives or fiancées of legal residents who are awaiting their
legal permanent residency. Most in these groups will eventually receive permanent legal
status.
The inclusion of the quasi-legal group with the unauthorized or their exclusion as
legal depends in part on the availability of data to estimate their numbers and in part on
the ultimate use of the estimates. The data for these groups are problematic. In
particular, the numbers cited above are approximations; the required demographic detail
is generally lacking; and the various categories overlap to some unknown (and possibly
substantial) degree. For use in assessing potential programs for dealing with the
unauthorized population, it seems appropriate to treat the quasi-legal group as part of the
unauthorized program since a significant share of this group would probably be eligible
to participate in any program that might lead to regularization of their status, such as a
temporary worker program or an earned legalization program. (For an opposite view, see
Martin 2005.)
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Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
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Augmentation of the CPS
The CPS data presented here are largely based on tabulations of augmented files
from the March 2005 CPS and Census 2000 5-percent PUMS. The augmentation
encompasses assignment of probably legal status to individual migrant cases in the
survey and adjustment for omissions. The data and techniques employed were developed
initially at the Urban Institute by Passel and Clark (Passel and Clark 1998 and Passel,
Van Hook, and Bean 2006 for description of the various methods used.)
The methods involve estimating the number of unauthorized migrants with the
techniques described previously. In this process, the CPS data are first corrected for
over-reporting of naturalized citizenship on the part of aliens. Then, persons entering the
U.S. as refugees and individuals holding certain kinds of temporary visas (including
students, diplomats, and “high-tech guest workers”) are identified in the survey and
assigned an immigration status using information on country of birth, date of entry,
occupation, education, and various family characteristics. Individuals that are definitely
legal and those that are potentially unauthorized are identified in the CPS (based on state
of residence, age, sex, occupation, country of birth, and date of entry). Next, using
probabilistic methods, enough of the potentially unauthorized are selected and assigned to
be unauthorized so as to hit the estimated numbers of legal and unauthorized migrants
included in the survey. This last step, which assigns more than three-quarters of the
potentially unauthorized as unauthorized, involves a consistency edit to ensure that the
family structures of both legal and unauthorized populations “make sense.” The whole
process requires several iterations to produce estimates that agree with the
demographically-derived population totals. Finally, the survey weights for the
foreign-born are adjusted upward so that the tabulated figures agree with the analytic,
demographic estimates of the total number of legal and unauthorized migrants developed
in the very first step.
References
Capps, Randolph, Michael E. Fix, Julie Murray, Jason Ost, Jeffrey S. Passel, and Shinta
Herwantoro. 2005. The New Demography of America's Schools: Immigration and
the No Child Left Behind Act. Urban Institute: Washington, DC. September 30.
Also, http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=311230.
Kochhar, Rakesh. 2005. Latino Labor Report, 2004: More Jobs for New Immigrants but
at Lower Wages. Pew Hispanic Center: Washington, DC. May. Also,
http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=45.
Martin, David A. 2005. Twilight Statuses: A Closer Examination of the Unauthorized
Population. Independent Task Force on Immigration and America's Future Policy
Brief No. 2. Migration Policy Institute: Washington, DC. June. Also,
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/MPI_PB_6.05.pdf.
Passel, Jeffrey S. 2005. Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics. Pew
Hispanic Center: Washington, DC. June. Also,
http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=46.
Pew Hispanic Center
March 7, 2006
Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population
Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey
Page 18
Passel, Jeffrey S. 1986. “Undocumented Immigration.” The Annals 486 (September
1986): 181–200.
Passel, Jeffrey S., Randolph Capps, and Michael E. Fix. 2004. “Undocumented
Immigrants: Facts and Figures.” Immigration Studies Program. Urban Institute:
Washington, DC. January 12. Also, http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID= 1000587.
Passel, Jeffrey S. and Rebecca L. Clark. 1998. Immigrants in New York: Their Legal
Status, Incomes and Tax Payments. Urban Institute: Washington, DC. April. Also,
http://www.urban.org/url.cfm?ID=407432.
Passel, Jeffrey and Roberto Suro. 2005. Rise, Peak and Decline: Trends in U.S.
Immigration 1992–2004. Pew Hispanic Center: Washington, DC. September.
Also, http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=53.
Passel, Jeffrey S., Jennifer Van Hook, and Frank D. Bean. 2006. Narrative Profile with
Adjoining Tables of Unauthorized Migrants and Other Immigrants, Based on
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Systems: Alexandria, VA. Forthcoming. To be posted at
http://www.sabresys.com/i_whitepapers.asp.
Passel, Jeffrey S., Jennifer Van Hook, and Frank D. Bean. 2004. Estimates of Legal and
Unauthorized Foreign Born Population for the United States and Selected States,
Based on Census 2000. Report to the Census Bureau. Urban Institute: Washington,
DC. June 1. Also, http://www.sabresys.com/i_whitepapers.asp.
Warren, Robert E. and Jeffrey S. Passel. 1987. “A Count of the Uncountable: Estimates
of Undocumented Aliens Counted in the 1980 United States Census.”
Demography 24 (3, August): 375–393.
Warren, Robert. 2003. “Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing
in the United States: 1990 to 2000.” Office of Policy and Planning. Washington,
DC.: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. January. Also,
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/Ill_Report_1211.pdf.
Warren, Robert. 2001. “Illegal Alien Resident Population: Estimates of the
Undocumented Immigrant Population Residing in the United States (October
1996).” Office of Policy and Planning. Washington, DC.: U.S. Immigration and
Naturalization Service. December (Updated). Also,
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/archives/illegal.pdf.
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March 7, 2006