Climate and the Globe
Wine Speak at the Creek
Climate Change in the Bottle:
Finger Lakes Viticulture in the World of Wine
Paul King
Six Mile Creek Vineyard Significant wine producing regions of the world with temperature bounds.
Cold Climate Viticulture:
Not for the faint of heart!
Grenache Garnasha
Grape Variety Climate/Maturity Groupings
Based on mean Apr‐Oct temperature °F Barbera
Gewurztraminer
Merlot
55 57 59 61 63 65 67 // 75°F
cool
mild
warm
hot
ebbiolo
Canadice
Riesling
Cabernet Franc
Chardonnay
Carignan
Zinfandel
Current Finger‐Lakes Growing season °F
Global Climate Change
First Tasting:
An Australian and Finger Lakes Contrast Climate Science 101
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other infra‐red absorbing (“greenhouse”) gases trap heat, forming a warming blanket around our globe.
• Without these greenhouse gases our planet would be a miserable, cold ‐4 degrees F. Instead, its average temperature is a sweet, comfortable 60 degrees.
• BUT!!! Since the industrial revolution, CO2, as well as methane and nitrous oxide, have been increasing exponentially, and the earth has warmed accordingly. Too much of a good thing isn’t always good! Climate Change Projections must be based on a specific Emissions Scenario!
A2
B1
A2: Population increases throughout century, limited technological sharing, energy use patterns currently in practice continue relatively unchanged
B1: Global population decreases after 2050, energy–efficient technology rigorously pursued, per capita energy consumption reduced. Total emissions begin decreasing after 2040
o
temperature change ( F)
Climate Scientists tell us big changes are coming fast!
12
10
8
6
They tell us strange and peculiar things!
Higher: 6.56.5-12.5oF
observations
higher emissions
lower emissions
Lower: 3.53.5-6.5oF
4
2
0
-2
-4
1900
2oF warming since
1970
1950
2000
2050
2100
Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
Observe the extraordinary Behavior of Scientists!
General Circulation Models
Harmonizing about results!
Observe your neighbors!
The Climate of New York is Already Changing
• Annual temperatures across New York have warmed almost 2º F since 1970
• Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly 5° F since 1970
• The date of the last spring frost has become 1 week earlier since 1950
• There are about 2 more days >90°F since 1970
The Climate of New York is Already Changing
• Annual temperatures across New York have warmed almost 2º F since 1970
• Winter temperatures have warmed by nearly 5° F since 1970
• The date of the last spring frost has become 1 week earlier since 1950
• There are about 2 more days >90°F since 1970
It is not just weather instruments telling us the climate is changing. The living world (plants, insects, birds and other animals) are responding to change. For example, in the Northeastern US….
Apples are blooming 8 days earlier than they were in the 1960s
The Precipitation Climatology is also Changing
• Average rainfall has increased by more than 3 inches since 1950
• There is about one more 2 inch rainfall per year since 1950
• Snow fall has declined by as much a 20 inches in some parts of the state since 1970
• In Lake Effect areas, there has been a long term increase in snowfall
NY State Breeding Bird Atlas
1980‐2005 range of many species extended northward Carolina wren
Grapes are blooming 6 days earlier • More northerly species ranges contracted at the southern edge of their range as well
Lilacs are blooming 4 days earlier
Nashville warbler
[Source: Wolfe DW et al. 2005. J Biometeor 49:303‐309.]
National Phenology Network: http://www.usanpn.org
• Across habitats and regardless of food preference
Several frog species now initiate breeding calls 10‐13 days earlier than a century ago in NYS. Wood Frog (Rana sylvatica)
Low emissions (B1)
High emissions (A2)
Now 2020 2050 2080
Future Apr‐Oct °F 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 // 75°F
cool
mild
warm
hot
Spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer)
Gray tree frog (Hyla sp.)
American bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana)
Cool Climate vs. Warm Climate effects on wine characteristics
It is best to make critical comparisons of climate effects on wines by evaluating wines of the same variety, vintage, style and when possible, region.
However, generalizations can be made even across varieties, and we will discuss a few of them.
Ripening and it’s effect on acids, sugars and flavors.
Potential alcohol levels: Alcoholic fermentation.
Winemaker influences: importance of style and balance.
Second Tasting:
A Finger Lakes and California Merlot Has the NY (European) wine grape industry already benefited from the warming trend?
Warm temps in early winter deacclimated vines and increased winter damage: NY vineyards (Source: I. Merwin, unpublished)
Geneva Weather Data
10
Coldest
Winter
Low
Temp ÞF
0
-10
Critical Temp
Vine Damage
-20
-30
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Source: A. Lakso, Cornell
The Finger Lakes wine industry may have already benefited from warmer winters,. . . BUT
Winter Chill (< 45 F) Hour Requirements
Expect the unexpected:
More freeze damage in a warmer world?
(less vine and root damage
in European wine grapes with less
frequent ‐12 F winter temps)
$$ millions of freeze damage to NY vineyards in 2003‐04 and 2004‐05 due to warm Decembers and inadequate winter “hardening” of buds and vines.
Source: Westwood MN. 1988. Temperate Zone Pomology. p. 386.
Winter Chill (< 45 F) Hour Requirements
Other considerations for the viticulturist in a changing climate * The significant costs of replanting and re‐trellising a vineyard
* Insect and disease issues
Source: Westwood MN. 1988. Temperate Zone Pomology. p. 386.
* Changes in severe weather patterns:
Hail as an example
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Agriculture
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
2008 US GHG Inventory Reports, USEPA 430‐R‐08‐005
(NOTE: In NYS, agriculture contributes < 3% of total GHG emissions;
Globally, agriculture contributes about 13.5% of total GHG emissions)
Points to remember…
•Climate change is real and happening now. It is best thought of in the literal interpretation of the phrase: “climate change” (not simply warming!)
•Climate change will effect every wine growing region in the world in some way eventually.
•Effects at the minimum would be seen in subtle changes in the characteristics of wines which could be partly compensated for by winemaker influences.
•Effects at the extreme would include; large changes in the characteristics of wines, replanting of vineyards and even the abandoning of vineyards.
•Change will not be limited to the direct effect on vines and resulting wines. Change in cultural practices and disease pressure will occur as well.
On a more self‐serving note…
•I might actually be able to grow Zinfandel in the Six Mile Creek watershed of Ithaca in my life‐time!
•Yeah!