Goals:
1.! Determine the association between Lygus abundance in cotton
fields and distribution / abundance of crops and non-cultivated
vegetation
2.! Determine constancy of these associations
a)! Between years in same region (2007 and 2008)
b)! Across regions (AZ, CA, TX)
4.! Predict Lygus density in cotton fields in 2009 with statistical
models developed from 2007 and 2008 data
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Field Type
Effect
Scale (meters)
Cotton
Sink
750
Fallow fields
with weeds
Forage Alfalfa
Source
500
Source
375
Seed Alfalfa
Source
1500
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Progress:
We produced and analyzed GIS maps of Lygus crops
and non-cultivated vegetation around focal cotton fields
for AZ 2007, CA 2007 and 2008, and TX 2007 and 2008
Progress:
1.! Produced software to conduct parametric and non-parametric
analyses:
a) Multiple regression / partial correlation for separate rings
as in Carrière et al. 2004, 2006
b) Multiple regression / partial correlation analyses on all rings
c) Stepwise regression / partial correlation
d) Path analyses
2.! Programs and associated documentation will be posted on the Web
3.! A manuscript is planned to explain how method a to d can be used
to analyze landscape data
Progress:
1.! Several strategies for data analyses have been evaluated. We
have made significant progress but have not yet developed a
final strategy…
3.! Two of the main statistical problems encountered:
A)! Statistical power is low when many crops are considered
and data are spatially autocorrelated
Stepwise regression is used to reduce number
of explanatory variables considered
B)! The sign of the coefficients of the associations between
crops and Lygus density can change in the same analysis
There are statistical reasons for this instability
and we have not yet solved this problem entirely
Last strategy evaluated to analyze Total Lygus, Adults and Nymphs:
California data sets: four analyses conducted with 2 rings of a width of
750, 1000, 1250 or 1500 m
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