Energy, Economics and
Sustainability
Michael J. Kelleher and Timothy Volk
SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
Syracuse, New York
November 5, 2008
World Energy Use Patterns
The U.S. uses almost 25% of the world’s energy
But we are less than 5% of the world’s population
World Energy Use
Exajoules
Global Energy Use
Energy Consumption and Affluence are Linked
(J.R. Fisher, 2005
The Global Energy Situation
2025
Oil Projections
China/India
China
10.9 (million barrels per day)
India
5.5 (million barrels per day)
(J.R. Fisher, 2005)
World primary energy consumption
World primary energy consumption
Changes in the Artic Ice Sheet
1979
2003
History of U.S. Energy Use
(EIA 2007)
For every 100 BTUs of energy supplied, 44 BTUs are consumed,
and 56 BTUs are “lost” due to inefficiencies (primarily combustion)
Why Can’t We Regulate
Our Way There?
Million barrels per day
25
Actual
NHTSA
Proposal
Projected
20% CAFE
Increase
Transportation
Oil Use
20
(=28.8 mpg)
40% CAFE
Increase
15
(=33.6 mpg)
60% CAFE
Increase
10
(=38.4 mpg)
5
Biofuels
Production
Initiative
Domestic
Production
CAFE increases
include light trucks
Beyond 2020, EIA
data extrapolated
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
US Fleet Fuel Economy
CAFE for US Fleet
32
Peak – 26.2 mpg in 1987
30
Miles per gallon
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
1980
1985
1990
Year
Light Trucks
Passenger Cars
Year vs Total Fleet
1995
2000
2005
Energy Summary - EtOH from Corn Grain
Corn
9
3
15.7 x 10 cals from 140 bu/acre
Products 2
Cost
1
EtOH
DDG
Loss
Farm Processing
0
20
40
60
80
100
% of Energy in Corn
• 50% of energy in corn grain converted to EtOH;
represents ~ 25% of energy in total plant biomass
• 66% of energy in EtOH is used in its production
from grain – an inconvenient truth ?
• How useful is co-product DDG ?
(Duxbury 2007)
Michael Wang, Argonne Nat. Lab., 2006
U.S. Department of Energy Genome
Programs and provide the website
http://genomics.energy.gov
U.S. Department of Energy Genome
Programs and provide the website
http://genomics.energy.gov
Biofuel GHG Balances
Fuel Type
Fossil C
Emissions
g CO2/MJ
Gas/Diesel
81-87
EtOH (USA)
Total GHG Biofuel GHG
Emissions
Savings
g CO2e/MJ
%
81-87
~ 68
~ 20
25-36
19
41-47
?
53-6
?
Switchgrass
5
?
?
Wood Chips
Heat
CHP
5
4-7
7
4-8
92
91-95
Biodiesel
Rape (UK)
Soybean (USA)
(Duxbury 2007)
Sustainable Fuels and More Efficient Use of
Resources: The Wood-based Biorefinery
Concept
Electric Generation: heated gases push engine
pistons, converting thermal energy into
mechanical energy.
U.S. Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2006
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-906, "Power Plant Report;" and Form EIA-920 "Combined Heat and Power Plant Report."
Average Retail Price of Electricity by State, 2006
$0.18
1.00
$0.16
0.90
$0.14
0.80
0.70
$0.12
0.60
$0.10
0.50
$0.08
0.40
$0.06
0.30
$0.04
0.20
$0.02
0.10
$0.00
0.00
New York
Georgia
West Virginia
State
Electric Price
CO2 tons/MWH
CO2 Emmissions
Tons/MWH
Electric Price $/kWh
Comparision of Electric Price and CO2 Emmissions
Fuel Cell, Efficient Power and Heat Generation
Funded by Grants:
NYSERDA
US DOE
EPRI
~$1.5M
~80% Conversion efficiency
17% of campus electrical
requirements
Renewable Energy Plays a Role in the Nation’s Energy
Supply (2007)
About Half of States Have Renewable Portfolio
Standards (RPS) and Renewables Mandates, 2007
Renewables
(EIA 2007)
Energy Economics –
Why do you buy energy?
Price
Demand
– “willingness to pay”
- quantity goes down as price goes up
Quantity
Demand for Energy is a Derived Demand
„
„
„
We want energy services such as heat, cooling,
refrigeration, transport.
Demand for energy is determined by:
‰ Amount of energy service demanded, and
‰ Efficiency of energy conversion.
Energy conversion requires a capital investment
in conversion technology.
‰ Car, refrigeration, light fixture (and light bulb),
furnace…
Rational Energy Decisions?
„
„
„
„
„
Access to information
Make “good” or “efficient” choices
Bounds to the extent that people are rational.
When do you see the price of most goods?
When do you see the price of electricity? Gas?
Do you spend the time to learn and shop to
make efficient energy decisions?
What is Renewable Energy
„
Any energy resource that is naturally
regenerated over a short time scale and
derived directly or indirectly from the sun or
other natural movements and mechanisms of
the environment.
Historical Emissions
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
8
0
1950
Historical
emissions
2000
2050
2100
The Stabilization Triangle
16
Easier CO2 target
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
=
“
p”
m
ra
th
a
tp
n
re
r
Stabilization
Cu
Triangle
8
Historical
emissions
~850 ppm
Interim Goal
To
ug
h
~5 er C
00 O
pp 2 tar
m
ge
t
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
Stabilization Wedges
16
Billions of Tons
Carbon Emitted
per Year
p”
r
u
C
8
Historical
emissions
th
a
tp
n
re
=
16 GtC/y
am
r
“
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today
Flat path
1.6
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Energy Efficiency &
Conservation (4)
16 GtC/y
Fuel Switching
(1)
CO2 Capture
& Storage (3)
Stabilization
Stabilization
Triangle
2007
8 GtC/y
2057
Nuclear Fission (1)
Renewable Fuels
& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil
Storage (2)