IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -1- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 3 Demographics ....................................................................................................... 5 1. By Geography ......................................................................................... 5 2. By Role ................................................................................................... 5 3. By Industry ............................................................................................. 6 4. By Scale By Industry ............................................................................... 7 5. By Scale By Sample Source .................................................................... 7 Projects ................................................................................................................. 8 1. ICT Infrastructure Projects ..................................................................... 8 2. ICT ONLY Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast ........................... 9 3. All Projects: Actual Vs Forecast .............................................................. 9 4. ICT Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast (U) ............................. 10 5. ICT Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast (D&C)......................... 10 6. ICT Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast (B&S) ......................... 11 Project Schedules ................................................................................................ 12 1. Current Status of Project Plans ............................................................ 12 2. Current Status of Project Plans (U) ...................................................... 13 3. Current Status of Project Plans (D&C) ................................................. 14 4. Current Status of Project Plans (B&S) .................................................. 15 5. Current Status of Project Plans (ANZ) .................................................. 16 6. Current Status of Project Plans (SEA) .................................................. 17 7. Current Status of Project Plans (Enterprise) ........................................ 18 8. Current Status of Project Plans (Telecom) ........................................... 19 9. Current Status of Project Plans (Industrial) ......................................... 20 1. Outlook Index....................................................................................... 21 2. Impact by Geography ........................................................................... 21 3. Impact by Role ..................................................................................... 22 1. Performance Index............................................................................... 22 2. Expected Performance by Geography ................................................. 23 3. Expected Performance by Role ............................................................ 23 4. Expected Performance by Industry...................................................... 23 CAPEX ................................................................................................................. 24 1. CAPEX Index ......................................................................................... 24 2. Past CAPEX by Geography .................................................................... 24 3. Past CAPEX by Role .............................................................................. 24 4. Past CAPEX by Industry ........................................................................ 25 IT&C Concerns ..................................................................................................... 26 1. Concerns by Geography ....................................................................... 27 2. Concerns by Role.................................................................................. 27 3. Concerns by Industry ........................................................................... 28 4. Concerns by Scale ................................................................................ 28 5. Concerns by Sample Source ................................................................. 29 © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -2- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Introduction This is the 8th edition of the Asia Market Pulse. The survey continues to follow the established format including deployment in six languages; English, Japanese, Indonesian Bahasa, Thai, Korean and Vietnamese. Offering access to these markets in a local language version has increased the penetration of the survey into all Asian markets. This has helped continue to increase the response rate, which in this edition has hit an all time high (up 43%). This is the public release versions of the report and will be translated and shared with all participants. In sharp contrast to the October 2011 results, the 8th edition of Market Pulse offers a more optimistic outlook for the region. Even though CAPEX spending is flat for the period surveyed, (a lagging indicator), all forward looking indices are now in positive territory. Over the past 6 months, significant work has been completed to correctly categorize respondents into relevant market segments. This survey reflects market verticals per best practice and offers better insight into those markets. With eight surveys under our belt, we have started to look for more meaning in the data. Most significantly in this survey is the examination of the proposition that there is a correlation between project volume, deployment schedule and a resulting build in the project funnel. This idea will be tested and examined over the following surveys. Executive Summary There are 5 component indices that form the overall Market Pulse Index, they are as follows; Market Pulse Capex: Basic tracking determines if respondents are proceeding with CAPEX or see a risk not to proceed. This index is a simple division of # that are proceeding by those deemed to be at risk. As such, the higher the number, the better. Market Pulse Project Forecast: Respondents are asked to note project deployment schedules past and present. This enables a simple comparison by period of how forecast and actual deployments match up. Project numbers are normalised so as to take into account sample size and the index is determined by subtracting forecast from actual. A positive number indicates Actual deployments exceeding the forecast for the same period. Market Pulse Project Schedule: Respondents are asked to note the expected schedule for project deployment. This index assumes that a shorter timeline offers less risk for cancellation or delay and catagorises responses into firm deployment and "at risk" segments. This index is a simple division of # that are "firm" by those deemed to be at risk. As such, the higher the number, the better. Market Pulse Economic Sentiment: Respondents are asked to rate how the local economy is impacting on their business prospects. Once neutral responses are removed a simple positive vs negative dataset provides the basis for this index. Less than "1" indicates a generally negative sentiment, more than "1" indicates a positive sentiment. As such, the higher the number, the better. Market Pulse Business Sentiment: Respondents are asked to rate their business prospects going forward. Once neutral responses are removed a simple positive vs negative dataset provides the basis for this index. Less than "1" indicates a generally negative sentiment, more than "1" indicates a positive sentiment. As such, the higher the number, the better. Market Pulse Index: Summary Index © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -3- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Summary Chart of the past 8 Market Pulse Surveys as follows; All forward looking indices have turned from negative in the past survey, to a positive direction in March 2012. The exception is Capex, however as a lagging indicator this is consistent with the current dataset. The summary Market Pulse Index has returned to positive territory. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -4- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Demographics 1. By Geography Participation was up by over 43% from the previous survey. NB: Avocent DB has been integrated into current market segmented format. 2. By Role Respondents are grouped according to their relationship with Emerson. The three categories are respondents as; 1. Users (U) of Emerson services or equipment, 2. Designers and influencers associated with specification and recommendation of Emerson services or products who Design & Construct (D&C) projects, and 3. those who Buy and Sell (B&S) Emerson services or products. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -5- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Demographic by Respondent role in the Emerson supply chain has remained relatively steady over the four years the Market Pulse survey has run. 3. By Industry Industry segment naming conventions have been further rationalized to better match current best practice and segmentation. Previously "Industrial" was an aggregation of at least Manufacturing and Energy and Utilities, however the current definition provides a clearer view of participating respondents. Further to this, taking the current sample and looking at the spread across the three main geographies that make up the Asian region, relative strengths and weaknesses can be observed in our reach into different segments. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -6- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 4. By Scale By Industry The 2009 H2 survey saw the introduction of several new questions, Scale of the primary deployment being one of them. At the time it was noted that a significant portion of respondents were defined in the small room or network category. Respondents have previously stabilized around the 60/40 mix however in this survey he overall sample has shifted this toward the smaller scale. 5. By Scale By Sample Source As further insight into the comparative differences across the sample, the following table breaks this out by DB source. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -7- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Projects Respondents were asked to list projects that have been deployed in the past 6 months and those scheduled for deployment in the next period. It offers insight project pipeline trends as well as the correlation between forecast and actual deployments. 1. ICT Infrastructure Projects It should be noted that even though the spread of projects is remarkably consistent from 2011 H2 to the current sample, the number of projects counted (visibility) has risen ahead of the sample increase by over 62% (survey to survey). The decline in projects specific to Infrastructure vs general IT projects noted in the last survey has been reversed with a 13% rise to the 3rd highest level in 8 surveys. In the following Project related charts, to overcome any bias caused by variations in sample size, this data has been normalized. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -8- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 2. ICT ONLY Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast H2 2012 to H1 2012 reflects an increase of 13% in forecast projects. Actual deployments over the same period have increased slightly. It should be noted that this chart pertains to projects specifically related to ITC support infrastructure. 3. All Projects: Actual Vs Forecast The same trends can be noted when all IT projects are taken into account. Actual deployments are marginally up, and forecast projects are up 14% on the past survey. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 -9- IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 4. ICT Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast (U) Project trends amongst End User respondents are as per the overall sample, namely returning to positive territory, albeit at a more muted level. It should be noted that the trend of actual deployments over the 8 surveys is flat to slightly declining. 5. ICT Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast (D&C) By virtue of their position in the market, the D&C segment has visibility into projects across multiple clients and multiple segments and as such offers a leading insight into market conditions. Declines © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 10 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 noted in October last year have been replaced by strong growth in both dimensions with special attention to forecasts growing by 17%. 6. ICT Infrastructure Projects: Actual Vs Forecast (B&S) This segment has proven the most difficult to come to grips with in terms of the story the data tells. To further complicate the picture, a major effort has been taken to correct and reclassify respondents in this segment. That said, forecast projects are supporting the general positive trend but also reflect a decline in previous actual projects (albeit from a high level). © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 11 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Project Schedules Respondents were asked to define the likely timing of projects listed in their pipeline. 1. Current Status of Project Plans The short term view of deployments has improved on the past survey with the "within 6 months" category rising by 3% and the "more than 6 months" declining by 5%. Projects being shelved (no plan for deployment) has increased marginally from 5% to 7%. This chart takes into account all respondents. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 12 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 2. Current Status of Project Plans (U) The short term plan drop of 11 points in the past survey has been replaced by a 12 point gain in this survey. This is a historical high for this segment and reflects a renewed confidence going forward. Projects being shelved (no plan for deployment) has remained steady at 5%. Even though the above represents a normalized view (neutralizing sample size), it's worth noting that on the back of a 40% sample size increase, visible projects have risen ahead of this as noted earlier by over 60%. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 13 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 3. Current Status of Project Plans (D&C) With the impact of volume taken into account, the above trend reflects a flat result in the D&C segment. Actual project volume is in fact well ahead of the sample increase, ie 67% vs 40% suggesting that the D&C segment is building its project funnel. This in turn offers an explanation of the project spread by expected deployment date vs that seen with end user respondents. Projects being shelved (no plan for deployment) has remained steady at 3%. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 14 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 4. Current Status of Project Plans (B&S) While the normalized data reflects a softening of this dimension, as per the D&C segment, with volume taken into account, a different story may be emerging. Even though volume is growing at a slightly lower rate than D&C at 58%, it still remains well ahead of the sample increase. The veracity of this proposition will be tested in subsequent surveys but at present this would indicate that the B&S segment is in a phase of building its project funnel. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 15 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 5. Current Status of Project Plans (ANZ) As a mature (and to a degree conservative) market, changes in ANZ are indicative of longer term trends. The March 2012 survey sees a modest correction of the past 16 point drop in projects to a 6 % point growth. Volume has kept pace with growth in the overall sample segment at 40%, so this result indicates the Aussie market is playing catch-up in terms of short term project deployment. Projects being shelved (no plan for deployment) has increased marginally from 3 to 5%. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 16 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 6. Current Status of Project Plans (SEA) Per the normalized data South East Asia remains steady (marginal increase) with respect to deployment plans. Historically, the 60 / 40 split seems to be the expected state of the market. Unlike Australia, SEA data indicates a growth in the project funnel as the volume of projects is ahead of the sample growth (52% over 40%). Worryingly, plans to shelve projects have continued to rise to 8%. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 17 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 7. Current Status of Project Plans (Enterprise) Enterprise as a segment is comprised of the following market segments; IT Services (Buy and Sell), BFSI, Government, Datacom, Infra Services (Design & Construct), Education, Healthcare, Broadcast & Communications, Other. Positive trends in the Enterprise segment are consistent with the overall trend. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 18 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 8. Current Status of Project Plans (Telecom) Improvements in the Telecom project deployment schedule have posted gains ahead of the Enterprise segment with a 6% improvement on the previous survey result. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 19 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 9. Current Status of Project Plans (Industrial) Industrial as a segment is comprised of the following market segments; Manufacturing, Energy & Utilities, Transportation, Other. Positive trends in the Industrial segment are consistent with the overall trend even though this sector lags the historical highs of H2 2009, 2010 and H1 2011. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 20 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 Economic Outlook: Impact Respondents were asked to rate the impact of Asia's economic conditions on the business prospects of their company in the near future. 1. Outlook Index 2. Impact by Geography Overall sentiment per Economic Outlook has returned to 2011 H1 levels with positive trends in all territories with the exception of North Asia. This result is driven by an improvement in sample size, with the current survey reflecting a statistical stability previously absent in that region. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 21 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 3. Impact by Role The outlier to the overall trend is the D&C segment. The past 3 surveys have now returned a negative trend for this segment which is contrary to project specific dimensions. This may be related to the relative difficulty that the D&C segment has in adapting to such a choppy market. Business Performance Respondents were asked to indicate how over the next 6 months, they expect their company's overall performance will change, i.e. improve, worsen or remain the same? 1. Performance Index © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 22 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 2. Expected Performance by Geography 3. Expected Performance by Role 4. Expected Performance by Industry While sentiment per regional economies vary across Asia, expected performance of business is uniformly positive. All regions have posted healthy gains (exception of Industrial) per expectations of business performance which is equally reflected across all roles. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 23 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 CAPEX Respondents were asked to indicate how over the past 6 months they have managed CAPEX activity. 1. CAPEX Index 2. Past CAPEX by Geography 3. Past CAPEX by Role © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 24 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 4. Past CAPEX by Industry As a lagging index, this result is per expectations. © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 25 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 IT&C Concerns As per previous surveys, respondents were asked to indicate their top three worries / concerns / challenges. Top 3 are indicated by color; © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 26 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 1. Concerns by Geography 2. Concerns by Role © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 27 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 3. Concerns by Industry 4. Concerns by Scale © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 28 - IT&C Market Pulse Bi Annual poll IT&C Infrastructure Professionals March 2012 5. Concerns by Sample Source © 2012 Emerson Network Power Public Release For Distribution russell.perry@emerson.com Market Pulse: #8 March 2012 09/05/2012 - 29 -