Inertial Measurement Unit Calibration using Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering by Gordon A. Thompson B.S. Mechanical Engineering Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, 2003 SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SEPTEMBER 2005 @ Gordon A. Thompson, 2005. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Author - Z; ,"Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics July 13, 2005 Certified by: Steven R. Hall Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor {'~ ~1) A A2() Ai I Certified by: J. Arnold Soltz Principal Memb i Accepted by MASSACHUSETlIS X INSTiTUTE 'I OF TECHNOLOGY of the c -al Staff, C. S. Draper Laboratory Thesis Supervisor Jaime Peraire Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Chair, Committee on Graduate Students DEC 31 2005 vow LIBRARIES rAE~O' [This page intentionally left blank.] V; 0 ,-,, Inertial Measurement Unit Calibration using Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering by Gordon A. Thompson Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics on July 13, 2005, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics Abstract The robustness of Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering (FIMLOF) for inertial measurement unit (IMU) calibration in high-g centrifuge environments is considered. FIMLOF uses an approximate Newton's Method to identify Kalman Filter parameters such as process and measurement noise intensities. Normally, IMU process noise intensities and measurement standard deviations are determined by laboratory testing in a 1-g field. In this thesis, they are identified along with the calibration of the IMU during centrifuge testing. The partial derivatives of the Kalman Filter equations necessary to identify these parameters are developed. Using synthetic measurements, the sensitivity of FIMLOF to initial parameter estimates and filter suboptimality is investigated. The filter residuals, the FIMLOF parameters, and their associated statistics are examined. The results show that FIMLOF can be very successful at tuning suboptimal filter models. For systems with significant mismodeling, FIMLOF can substantially improve the IMU calibration and subsequent navigation performance. In addition, FIMLOF can be used to detect mismodeling in a system, through disparities between the laboratory-derived parameter estimates and the FIMLOF parameter estimates. Thesis Supervisor: Steven R. Hall Title: Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor: J. Arnold Soltz Title: Principal Member of the Technical Staff, C. S. Draper Laboratory 3 [This page intentionally left blank.] Contents 1 2 Introduction 1.1 M otivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.2 B ackground . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.3 Thesis O verview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 15 Inertial Measurement Units 2.1 2.2 3 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.1.1 Single-Degree-of-Freedom Gyroscopes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.1.2 Two-Degree-of-Freedom Gyroscopes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.1.3 Gyroscope Testing and Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 G yroscopes A ccelerom eters 2.2.1 Pendulous Integrating Gyroscopic Accelerometers 2.2.2 Accelerometer Error Model 2.2.3 Accelerometer Testing and Calibration 27 System Identification 3.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 3.1.1 Parameter Estimation 3.1.2 Likelihood Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3.1.3 Cramer-Rao Lower Bound . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.1.4 Fisher Information Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3.1.5 Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.1.6 Solution of Maximum Likelihood Estimators . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 7 3.2 3.3 4 ................................. 35 3.2.1 System Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3.2.2 Kalman Filter Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.2.3 Mismodeling in Kalman Filters 37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.3.1 The Likelihood Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.3.2 Negative Log-Likelihood Function Minimization . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.3.3 Process Noise Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.3.4 Measurement Noise Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3.3.5 Convergence Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Robustness Analysis 4.1 4.2 5 Kalman Filters System Models 47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4.1.1 Model 2 - No PIGA Harmonics Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 4.1.2 Model 3 - Small Deterministic Error Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 4.1.3 Model 4 - Minimum state with centrifuge model . . . . . . . . . . 51 4.1.4 Model 5 - Minimum state model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 4.1.5 Synthetic Measurements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4.2.1 Determining Whiteness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4.2.2 Miss Distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Robustness Tests Results 5.1 5.2 59 Full State M odel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 5.1.1 FIMLOF Parameter Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 5.1.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 5.1.3 Miss Distances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 5.2.1 Parameter Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 5.2.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 5.2.3 Miss Distances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 No PIGA Harmonics Model 8 5.3 5.4 5.5 6 Small Sinusoidal Error Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 5.3.1 Parameter Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 5.3.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 5.3.3 Miss Distances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Minimum State with Centrifuge Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 5.4.1 Parameter Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 5.4.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 5.4.3 Miss Distances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Minimum State Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.5.1 Parameter Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5.5.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5.5.3 Miss Distances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Conclusion 85 6.1 Summary of Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 6.2 Future Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A Derivation of Selected Partial Derivatives 86 89 A. 1 Derivative of a Matrix Inverse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 A.2 Derivatives of Noise Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 B Inertial Measurement Unit System Model B.1 93 Gyroscope Error Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 B.2 Accelerometer Error Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 B.3 PIGA Error Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 B.4 Misalignment Error Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 B.5 Centrifuge Error Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 B.5.1 Lever Arm Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 B.5.2 Centrifuge Target Bias Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 103 C Removed Model State Listings C .1 M odel 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 9 C.2 Model3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . 104 C .3 M odel4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 C.4 Model5 . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. 10 ... .. .. . . . . . . . .. .104 Chapter 1 Introduction The fundamental purpose of this research is to investigate the robustness of Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering (FIMLOF) when estimating the process noise strengths and measurement standard deviations of an inertial measurement unit (IMU) via centrifuge testing. Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering [27, 32, 33] uses maximum likelihood to estimate the parameter values of an error model via Newton-Raphson iteration, and is typically used for system identification. Full Information means that all of the parameters are estimated at once. Maximum Likelihood indicates that the estimated parameters are those most likely (for a given statistical assumption) to have generated the observations collected. Optimal Filtering using a Kalman Filter provides the best estimates of the observations possible with the given model. 1.1 Motivation Inertial navigation systems use a guidance computer and an IMU containing gyroscopes and accelerometers to determine the position, velocity, and attitude of a vehicle. The gyros and accelerometers have calibrated error models implemented in the guidance computer to improve the accuracy of the navigation. The states of the error models are estimated during the calibration of the IMU. For the system under consideration in this thesis, calibration is performed by testing 11 the IMU on a centrifuge, which allows error states that are acceleration and accelerationsquared sensitive to be estimated. The measurements from the centrifuge test are used by a Kalman Filter to estimate the error states of the IMU. In addition to the measurements, the Kalman Filter needs a priori values of many model parameters, including the process noise strengths and measurement standard deviations. Classically, noise parameters have been determined in the laboratory. For example, the random walk in angle for gyroscopes is typically calculated through a "tombstone test." This test involves running a gyro for a long time on an inertially stable table. The power spectral density of the measurements from the gyro, when expressed in the proper units, forms the noise strength of the random walk in angle. FIMLOF can estimate the model parameter values from the centrifuge measurements using maximum likelihood estimation. The likelihood function is formed from Kalman Filter residuals and their covariances. The measurements contain the same statistical information as the filter residuals [16] - the residuals are used to make the maximum likelihood estimation easier. Updated model parameter estimates are used to rerun the Kalman Filer. FIMLOF can potentially result in significant time savings, because it uses the data already required for a centrifuge calibration of the IMU to estimate the model parameters, instead of requiring additional lab tests. Alternatively, it can be used to confirm the results of the laboratory tests. 1.2 Background System identification involves the development or improvement of a model of a physical system using experimental data [15, 20]. Many types of identification exist, including modal parameter identification [3, 24, 36] (determining the mode shapes and frequencies of a structure) and control-model identification [14] (identifying a model used to control the system). They have different goals and development histories, but share the same mathematical principles. Control-model identification can occur in either the frequency domain or the time domain. Frequency domain identification uses non-parametric methods such as frequency 12 response estimation. It is no longer prevalent, due to the rise of parametric system models [15]. In the time domain, there are many methods of identifying state-space models, such as minimum realization methods [37, 34, 28, 29]. In inertial navigation, these models are then used in a Kalman Filter. Once a system model has been identified for use in a Kalman Filter, the system noise parameters must be identified. The value of these parameters may be estimated using a variety of methods [9, 22, 23]. For example, Bayesian estimation [12], maximum likelihood estimation [17], and correlation methods [22] may be used. FIMLOF is a MLE method. The method of FIMLOF was developed by Schweppe [32, 33] and Peterson [27]. Sandell and Yared [31] developed a special form of it for linear Gaussian models. Their approach is followed in this thesis. They used FIMLOF to estimate initial state covariances, process noise strengths, and measurement standard deviations. Skeen extended FIMLOF to estimate fractional Brownian motion and Markov processes [35]. This thesis expands on Sandell and Yared's work by investigating FIMLOF's sensitivity to the initial parameter estimate and to filter suboptimality. 1.3 Thesis Overview In a well-modeled system, FIMLOF should provide parameter estimates that are very similar to laboratory-derived noise values. FIMLOF parameter estimates that are significantly different from the laboratory values are often evidence of serious mismodeling. This thesis shows that using FIMLOF to estimate the process noise strengths and measurement noise standard deviations of a mismodeled IMU can significantly improve its navigational performance. For the most severely mismodeled case considered, FIMLOF improved the navigational accuracy of the system by an order of magnitude. Chapter 2 provides a review of inertial instruments, including various types of gyroscopes and accelerometers and their standard error terms. Inertial instrument technology is a mature field, so the chapter provides only a brief overview. Chapter 3 covers system identification. FIMLOF relies heavily on maximum likelihood estimation, so it is discussed at some length. The Kalman Filter equations are described, 13 but no derivations are given. The FIMLOF algorithm is derived in detail, and the partial derivatives for estimating process noise strengths and measurement standard deviations are presented. The primary results of the thesis stretch over three chapters. Chapter 4 covers the system models used in evaluating FIMLOF. It also sets out the metrics by which the robustness of FIMLOF was evaluated. The actual results are presented in Chapter 5. FIMLOF is investigated for its sensitivity to initial model parameter estimates and reduced-order error models. Chapter 6 gives a summary of the findings, and proposes future work on the topic. 14 Chapter 2 Inertial Measurement Units Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) provide the data required for the navigation and guidance of a vehicle. An IMU consists of gyroscopes and accelerometers and their associated electronics, while a guidance system combines the instruments with a computer. At its most basic, a guidance system provides automatic control to the vehicle without relying on external measurements. IMU instrument technology is a mature field, so only the briefest overview is given here. For more information, the reader is directed to the literature. An IMU can be attached to a vehicle in several ways. It may be a strapdown system, in which the instruments are fixed to the vehicle in a fixed orientation. Alternatively, it may be mounted on an inertially stable platform that uses the gyros' readings to maintain a fixed inertial attitude. The IMU used in this thesis is one of the latter, so the error equations that follow are those of platform-mounted instruments. 2.1 Gyroscopes The mechanical gyroscope uses a rotating mass to detect changes in angle. Consider a basic gyroscope like the one shown in Figure 2-1. The gyro has a polar moment of inertia J about its spin axis (SA), and is spinning with angular velocity w. From Newton's Second Law, we know that the angular momentum of the gyro, H, will not change unless 15 Q-. Precession, Q Z nput Torque, T 2 Input Torque, T, dO X Spin Axis, H=Jo dH=HdO Figure 2-1: Law of Gyroscopics. acted upon by a torque T, in which case T = dH/dt. (2.1) Consider a torque, T 1 , acting about the SA. T increases the angular velocity of the gyro, so that T1 = Jdw/dt = Ja, (2.2) where a is the angular acceleration. Because T acts around the SA, only the magnitude of the angular velocity changes, not its direction. However, if the torque is orthogonal to the SA, only the direction of the angular velocity will change, not its magnitude. In Figure 2-1, a positive torque about the Y axis, T 2 , will cause a small angular momentum change dH in the direction of the positive Y axis. This angular momentum change has a magnitude given by dH = HdO, 16 (2.3) Input Axis Gimbal Torsion bar, stiffness Ktb Weld Output Axis, k0f Pickoff, angle 0 10 L-S Spin axis Damper, Coefficient c in e rtia 10 Figure 2-2: Single-degree-of-freedom rate gyro. Input Axis 14 Bearing Gimbal Wheel Output axis % Axis, inertia 10 0Output Torquer 0 H Spin axis Servo Amplifier Damper, Coefficient c Pickoff, angle 0 Figure 2-3: Single-degree-of-freedom rate-integrating gyro. where dO is the small change in angle. When combined with Equation (2.1), this equation leads to the Law of Gyroscopics [19], written as T = dH/dt = H dO/dt = HQ, (2.4) where Q is the precession rate, the angular velocity of the gyro about the Z axis. A precession results from a deliberately applied torque, whereas drift results from accidental or unwanted torques [18]. In essence, a gyroscope attempts to align the SA and the input torque. 17 2.1.1 Single-Degree-of-Freedom Gyroscopes A single-degree-of-freedom gyroscope is restricted to one free axis. Rate gyros measure the angular velocity of the instrument. As can be seen in Figure 2-2, a gimbal is connected to the gyro case by torsion bars on the output axis (OA). The gyro turns about the OA in response to an angular rate around the input axis (IA). A pickoff measures the gimbal angle, which is proportional to the angular velocity seen by the IA. Rate gyros are inexpensive, but not very accurate. The other type of single-degree-of-freedom gyroscope is the rate-integratinggyro, which provides higher accuracy. The gimbal is connected to the gyro case by bearings instead of torsion bars. As shown in Figure 2-3, the pickoff from the gimbal provides a signal to a torque motor that drives the gimbal back to level. The output of a rate-integrating gyro is the torquer current rather than the gimbal angle, which remains at at zero. A rate-integrating gyro gimbal must respond to very small torques in order to have a low input threshold. Therefore, the bearings on the OA gimbal must have very low friction. The friction torque of the bearings is a function of the forces placed upon them. In a dry gyro, these forces include both the gyroscopic loads and the gimbal weight. However, if the gimbal is sealed against liquids, it may be floated at neutral buoyancy inside the gyro case. Liquid fluorocarbons are often used for this purpose [19]. A floating gimbal is usually referred to as a float. Because the float is neutrally buoyant, the bearing forces are reduced to only the gyroscopic loads. Single-degree-of-freedom Gyro Error Model Single-degree-of-freedom gyros suffer from a variety of drift rate errors. Acceleration- insensitive drift rates, called biases, are caused, for example, by magnetic field effects. Biases are not necessarily constant - they can vary over the life of the instrument or even between one startup and the next. Acceleration-sensitive drift rates vary linearly with acceleration and typically result from a mass imbalance in the wheel. Accelerationsquared-sensitive drift rates vary quadratically with acceleration. These drifts are caused by anisoelasticity, mismatches in the stiffness of supports. In single-degree-of-freedom 18 gyros, the rotor bearings must be as stiff radially in the IA as they are axially in the SA [19]. The IEEE steady-state error model for a single-degree-of-freedom rate-integrating gyro mounted on a platform is [1] Drift rate = DF + D1 a1 + Do ao + Ds as +DI, a2 + Dss as+ Ds a, as + Dioa, ao + Dos ao as. (2.5) The terms of the model are: DF : Bias, acceleration-insensitive drift a1 : IA acceleration ao : OA acceleration as : SA acceleration D, :IA mass imbalance, acceleration-sensitive drift coefficient Do :OA acceleration-sensitive drift coefficient Ds :SA mass imbalance, acceleration-sensitive drift coefficient D11 : acceleration-squared-sensitive drift coefficient along IA Dss: acceleration-squared-sensitive drift coefficient along SA DIS :acceleration-squared-sensitive drift coefficient along IA and SA DIO : acceleration-squared-sensitive drift coefficient along IA and OA Dos: acceleration-squared-sensitive drift coefficient along OA and SA 2.1.2 Two-Degree-of-Freedom Gyroscopes Two-degree-of-freedom gyros are also called free gyros, because the spin axis of the rotor can point in any direction without restraint. Dynamically tuned gyros (Figure 2-4) are the most common form of free gyros. The gimbal of a dynamically tuned gyro is connected to the rotor and shaft by flexures. The moments of inertia of the rotor are much larger than those of the gimbal; therefore, the rotor will remain at a fixed orientation while the gimbal is forced to flutter as the shaft spins. As the gimbal flutters, the flexures cause positive spring torques on it. Gimbal angular velocity from the flutter also generates negative 19 Shaft Flexures Gimbal Gimbal Axis Y Gimbal Axis X Spin Axis Z Figure 2-4: Two-degree-of-freedom dynamically tuned gyro. precession torques on the gimbal due to its angular momentum. The gyro operates at its tuned speed when the two torques on the gimbal cancel each other and the rotor is unrestrained by any gimbal torques [6, 71. Two-degree-of-freedom Gyro Error Model The two-degree-of-freedom dynamically tuned gyro has many of the same sources of error as the single-degree-of-freedom gyro described in Section 2.1.1. Errors not observed in a single-degree-of-freedom gyro are the quadrature mass unbalances, which occur when the flexures generate a torque while loaded axially. This torque creates an accelerationsensitive drift about the axis opposite to the one the acceleration acts along. Anisoelasticity in dynamically tuned gyros is caused by the flexures, not the supports as in single-degree-of-freedom gyros. The compliance of each flexure must be equal in both the radial and the axial direction to prevent this error. The error model for the x-axis of a 20 dynamically tuned gyro is written as [19] Drift rate = B, (Fixed bias) + Dxxax (Normal acceleration-sensitive drift) + Drya, (Quadrature acceleration-sensitive drift) + Dxzaz ('Dump' acceleration-sensitive drift) + Dxxzazax. (Anisoelasticity) The term Dxz is caused by the rectification of internal vibration. (2.6) For example, this vibration may come from shaft bearings and vary based on their load. The y-axis of the gyro has a similar error model. 2.1.3 Gyroscope Testing and Calibration Testing and calibration of gyroscopes is a well-known process. Complete test procedures for the rate-integrating single-degree-of-freedom gyro are described by IEEE Standard 517-1974 [1]. Dynamically tuned gyro testing proceeds in a similar fashion. The gyro is mounted on an inertially stable platform and allowed to run for a long period to determine the random drift [19]. It is calculated by taking the power spectral density of the output. For a dynamically tuned gyro, the random drift is usually called the random walk in angle, when expressed in the correct units. The random walk in angle forms one of the primary noise sources in the gyro. Bias, scale factor, and mass imbalances for a rate integrating gyro may be determined by performing a six-position test. The gyro axes are aligned with north, east, and up. The gyro is tested with each of the axes vertically positive and then vertically negative. A dynamically tuned gyro is tested in an eight position test. For four positions, the SA is vertical with the x-axis aligned with north, west, south, and east, respectively. For the other four positions, the SA is horizontal and aligned with north, while the x-axis is aligned vertically positive, west, vertically negative, and east in sequence. Accelerationsensitive terms are determined by the local gravity, while the scale factor is determined 21 by the horizontal earth rate [19]. 2.2 Accelerometers Accelerometers measure the specific force generated when a mass accelerates. They contain a "proof mass," a suspension to locate the mass, and a pickoff that outputs a signal related to the acceleration [19]. The implementations of this concept range from springmass systems to fiber-optics. Accelerometers can even be made out of gyroscopes, such as the pendulous integrating gyroscopic accelerometer described in Section 2.2.1. The basic spring-mass accelerometer is a single-degree-of-freedom instrument. It consists of a mass, m, constrained to move in one direction and connected to the frame by a spring with constant K, and a damper with coefficient c. Summing the forces on the mass produces the system response equation, given by [19] (d 2x N dxN + Kx, Fz=m d2 2 + c dt / ( dt ) (2.7) where F is the input force and x is the displacement of the mass from its rest position relative to the accelerometer frame. At steady-state, the acceleration is given by d2 x 2=- -xK dt2 m ' (2.8) where Kx/m is the accelerometer scale factor. Accelerometers measure the specific force on the instrument rather than the total acceleration seen by the system. Unless the accelerometer is used in an inertial reference frame, the acceleration must be expressed in the rotating frame, e.g., an earth-centered earth-fixed frame. Figure 2-5 shows the position vectors of a particle relative to an inertial frame and a rotating frame. In the figure, the XYZ system is inertial, while the eie 2 e3 system translates and rotates relative to it. The acceleration of the particle, as seen by an observer at 0' in the eie2 e3 frame, can be expressed as [11] d2 p?P-CP dri dp? dw xpP - wx(w = r - 2wxxdP-d x pP) 2 dt ' dt dt dt 22 (2.9) Z 3 P 2 P r R 0 X Figure 2-5: Position vectors of a point P relative to a fixed system and a rotating system. with the terms defined as follows: pP : Position vector of P relative to 0' as expressed in eie 2e 3 frame Cf : Transformation from XYZ frame to eie 2 e 3 frame ri :Acceleration vector of P relative to 0 as expressed in XYZ frame w : Absolute angular velocity of eie 2e 3 frame. In an earth-fixed coordinate system, w = i, the constant rotation rate of the earth. In this case, Equation (2.9) simplifies to d2 pp P = GP + SFP - 2w x d pP -p _ Wx (W x pP), dt dt 2 (2.10) where GP is the graviational attraction vector and SFP is the specific force, both expressed in the eie 2 e 3 earth-fixed frame. The specific force observed by the instrument may then be written as [18] SFP = aP - GP, (2.11) where aP is the combined acceleration vector of the accelerometer expressed in the earthfixed frame. 23 Torquer (not shown)Bern rotates housing - Wheel Pickoff OA bearing Pendulous massF Figure 2-6: Pendulous integrating gyroscopic accelerometer. 2.2.1 Pendulous Integrating Gyroscopic Accelerometers A modified rate-integrating gyro can be used as a very precise accelerometer, as shown in Figure 2-6. The pendulous integrating gyroscopic accelerometer (PIGA) converts an acceleration-induced inertia force into a torque. This torque precesses a gyro - the precession rate is proportional to the acceleration. The time integral of the acceleration is the angle through which the gyro turns [19]. A PIGA operates in a slightly different manner than the rate-integrating gyro described in Section 2.1.1. In a rate-integrating gyro, the float is balanced so that its center of mass lies at the intersection of the SA and the OA. In a PIGA, however, the center of mass is offset along the SA. Accelerations along the IA cause the float to act like a pendulum, generating a torque about the OA. A pickoff senses the resulting rotation of the float about the OA and drives a torquer to rotate the PIGA housing about the IA. This rotation creates a gyroscopic torque about the OA that cancels the acceleration torque, so the float remains level. The rotation rate of the housing about the IA measures the acceleration of the PIGA along the IA. 24 Accelerometer Error Model 2.2.2 Accelerometers suffer from several sources of error. The instrument bias is an accelerationinsensitive error. The bias usually varies from one instrument startup to the next, and must be compensated by the navigation computer. Scale factor errors are accelerationsensitive. If the mass is not perfectly constrained to move along the sensing axis, crosscoupling errors also occur. These errors are caused by accelerations along non-sensing axes being observed by the instrument. The steady-state instrument output u of an accelerometer can be expressed as [18] U = ko + k1a, + k2 a! + k2,ay + kxzaz. (2.12) The terms of the model are as follows: ax :Component of specific force along the sensing axis a: Component of specific force along a nonsensing axis ay :Component of specific force along a nonsensing axis k : mpAccelerometer bias ko : Scale factor k Nonlinear calibration coefficient k2 :Cross-axis sensitivity coefficient kxy :Cross-axis sensitivity coefficient 2.2.3 Accelerometer Testing and Calibration Accelerometers are classically calibrated by testing them statically in a 1-g field. To calibrate the accelerometers, they are mounted on a test bench that rotates their IA in a vertical plane around a horizontal axis. This allows the bias and scale factor to be determined. If measurements i and E 1 are taken at + g and -ig respectively, the scale factor is calculated from Equation (2.12) by [19] ki = 1 (E+1 - E. 1). 2 - 25 (2.13) The bias can be calculated by ko = 1 (E- 1 + E+1 ) /ki. 2 - (2.14) Cross-axis sensitivities can be determined by making measurements with the accelerometer in other orientations. The in-run variation of the bias may be tested by placing the accelerometer on an inertially stable platform and allowing it to run for a long time. The standard deviation of the outputs of the accelerometer is its random drift. When expressed in the correct units, the random drift for a PIGA is the random walk in velocity, which is a primary noise source for the instrument. Higher-order error terms cannot be separated from each other when the accelerometer is tested at only one acceleration level. These higher order terms can be determined by placing the accelerometer on a centrifuge. Testing the accelerometer at various centrifuge speeds and orientations allows accleration-squared-sensitive and higher error terms to be calculated. 26 Chapter 3 System Identification Parameter identification is the determination or estimation of system parameters such as initial covariances, initial state estimates, dynamics, or noise values. This thesis focuses on two identification methods: Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation. Bayesian estimation is used for Kalman filters, discussed briefly in Section 3.2.2, while maximum likelihood estimation provides the basis for Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering (FIMLOF) [31, 35]. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed in general in Section 3.1 and the implementation in FIMLOF is covered in Section 3.3. In this thesis, the term parameter estimate refers to the value of a model parameter identified by FIMLOF such as a process noise strength. The term state estimate refers to the Kalman Filter estimate of the value of a state in the model. 3.1 Maximum Likelihood Estimation Maximum likelihood estimation is a commonly used form of parameter identification. It maximizes a likelihood function that is dependent on the conditional probability of the observations. This maximization is frequently performed using Newton's Method, although an approximate Newton's Method is used for FIMLOF. 27 3.1.1 Parameter Estimation Consider a system with states x E R"', past observations z (E RmxN, and unknown parameters a E RqX . Bayesian estimation is more effective than maximum likelihood estimation in general, but requires the prior knowledge of p(a), the probability density function of the parameters [30]. In practice, there is often no way of knowing p(a). Maximum likelihood estimation requires only a knowledge of p(zla), the probability density function of the observations conditioned on the parameters, rather than p(a). Therefore, maximum likelihood estimation is used in FIMLOF. 3.1.2 Likelihood Functions Maximum likelihood estimation determines the parameter estimates that maximize the conditional probability of the observations. In other words, it finds the parameter estimates for which the most likely observations are those that have actually occurred. Let a = [Oi ... , Caq] be a set of q parameters that affect a system. Let z set of N observations of the system for times t1,... , tN. = [zi, .. . , ZN be a The likelihood function is defined as the joint probability density of the observations given the parameter values, l(a) = p(z; a) = p(zi,. .. ,zN; oZ, -. . , aq)- (3-1) The likelihood function is calculated for a given set of observations. The maximum of l(a) is defined as l(z), where & are the maximum likelihood estimates of a. They are the parameter estimates for which the observations are easiest to produce. Equation (3.1) is a probability density function, so it follows that I p(z; a) dz = (3.2) 1. Taking the partial derivatives of both sides of Equation (3.2) results in [35] /P_(Z; _ iBai ) 6 2 p(z; dz = 0 f 28 agaia a) dz = 0. (3.3) When l(a) is an exponential function of a (e.g., a Gaussian distribution), Equation (3.1) may be converted to the negative natural logarithm of the likelihood function, ((a), so that (3.4) ((a) = - ln p(z; a). Equation (3.4) takes advantage of the monotonicity of the natural logarithm, and converts the problem from a maximization to a minimization in keeping with standard optimization notation. If the probability density functions are independent, the likelihood function may be formed by taking the product of the individual density functions. In this case, Equation (3.4) has the additional benefit of converting the products into sums. 3.1.3 Cramer-Rao Lower Bound Given a set of observations, z, consider &(z), an arbitrary estimate of a. The bias b(a) of the estimator &() can be expressed as [31] b(a) = a - E {&(z) a} = a - (3.5) &(z)p(z; a)dz, where E{-} denotes the expectation operator. The error covariance matrix can be expressed as E(a) = = E {(a - &(z) - b(a)) (a - &(z) - b(a)) T Ia} (a - &(z) - b(a)) (a - &(z) - b(a)) T p(z; a) dz. (3.6) A desirable estimator is unbiased, so that E {&} = E {a}. It also has a minimum covariance, so that the diagonal elements of E(a) are smaller than those of any other estimator [30]. The variance has a lower bound that can be derived from the bias and the statistical properties of the observations. This lower bound, which is independent of the estimator, is known as the Cramer-Rao lower bound. In the scalar case, the general form of the 29 Cramer-Rao lower bound is [26] ) E { -a)2 E{&(z)a}] -a 2 - ja} > E 2 (3.7) a In p(za)2 For an unbiased estimator, =E f (3.8) Ba and Equation (3.7) becomes 1 E {(d - a) 2 a} > (3.9) , where F=E{(1np(zla) 2 2lnp(zla) az ia2 (3.10) is the Fisher information matrix and will be discussed further in Section 3.1.4. In the more general case of an unbiased estimator with q parameters, it can be shown [38] that Equation (3.9) becomes -a) (6-a)T E {& -FF- . (3.11) The Cramer-Rao lower bound for the variance of the ith parameter, aj, is equal to [F4]1i. 3.1.4 Fisher Information Matrix The Fisher information matrix measures the information contained in a parameter estimate. It is the expected value of the Hessian, the matrix of second derivatives, of the negative log-likelihood function. Combining Equation (3.4) and Equation (3.11) yields Fi- = E a2( (Z;i ) (3.12) This equation will become important in the sequel. It will also be useful to have an expression of the Fisher information matrix in terms of first partial derivatives [35]. Applying the definition of the expectation operator to 30 Equation (3.12), the equation may be rewritten as Fi = - J 02 In j(z; a)] p(z; a) dz. Ooaiacj (3.13) Recalling that ln(x) is the derivative of 1/x, Equation (3.13) becomes FjJ= -Ia a p(z a) p(z; a) dz. (3.14) Applying the chain rule of differentiation to Equation (3.14) yields Fi - =- f a 2 p(z; 0acaxo0 a) dz + 1 f p(z; a) 2 0p(z; a) ap(z; a)p(z; a)dz. %3' 0aC (3.15) From Equation (3.3) [8], it follows that Equation (3.15) simplifies to a)] a In [p(z; a)] Fzj = E 0In [p(z; 0% 0caj (3.16) Substituting Equation (3.4) into Equation (3.16) results in the Fisher information matrix in terms of first partial derivatives, so that } Yij = E {((Z; a)a((z; a) Baa (9aj I 3.1.5 (3.17) Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimation A standard assumption for maximum likelihood estimation, made in this thesis, is that the measurements are independent, which implies that N p(z; a) f p(zk; a). = (3.18) k=O The observations are assumed to be a sequence of independent experiments. An additional assumption is the identifiability condition [31], defined as P(Z; Ctl) 0-P(Z; t2) 31 for all a, f a 2. (3.19) This assumption means that different parameter values lead to observations with different probabilistic behavior. Simply put, a parameter a1 cannot cause measurements with an identical probability density function as measurements from another parameter a . 2 The identifiability condition determines a unique value for a. Without it, it would be impossible to distinguish between two parameter values a 1 and a 2 , regardless of the number of observations made. The identifiability condition can sometimes be relaxed to form a local identifiability condition. Under the relaxation, Equation (3.19) becomes p(zt; for all Iai - a 2 | < M, ai) 0 p(zt; a 2) a1 fa 2 , (3.20) where M determines the local region. Inside this region, a is unique. Using the conditions of independence and identifiability, and several technical assumptions [38], maximum likelihood estimation has many asymptotic properties. An unbiased estimator &, as described in Section 3.1.3, is one in which E {&} = E{a} [30]. asymptotically unbiased estimator, E{&tja} -- + a as t -> In an oc. An estimator is efficient if, given the estimator & and any other estimator &, [30], E { (6f - a)(& _ f)T} < E f{(6 - a)(& - a)T} . (3.21) An unbiased, efficient estimator fulfills the Cramer-Rao lower bound as an equality, and Equation (3.11) becomes E {(& - a)(& - a)T} = F- 1 . (3.22) Such an estimator is not guaranteed to exist, but if it does, it is a maximum likelihood estimator [38]. An asymptotically efficient estimator is one in which Equation (3.22) is fulfilled as the number of observations goes to infinity. A consistent estimator gets better as the number of observations increases [30]. More specifically, the estimate & converges to the true value a as the number of observations goes to infinity. An estimator is asymptotically normal if it becomes Gaussian as the number of observations goes to infinity. The asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators fulfills the requirements 32 of the negative natural logarithm form of the likelihood function found in Equation (3.4). 3.1.6 Solution of Maximum Likelihood Estimators Due to the complex nature of the likelihood function, its derivatives usually cannot be solved for analytically. Therefore, an iterative optimization method must be used to find the solution. Several methods exist for determining the maximum of the likelihood function or, alternatively, the minimum of the negative log-likelihood function [4]. The method used in this thesis is an approximate Newton-Raphson method. Let a be an estimate of the optimal parameter values a*. For parameter values la - al < c, with c > 0, the likelihood function ((a) can be approximated by its Taylor series expansion ((a) 1 + V((a) T (a - a) + -(a - C) T H(Cx)(a - dx). +() h(a) = 2 The gradient of ((a), VC() (3.23) , is evaluated at a = d, so that ) = .(3.24) H(5x) is the Hessian, the matrix of second partial derivatives, of ((a) evaluated at a = a, so that [H(5c)]. a2 ((a) . (3.25) Note that h(a) is a quadratic function, which can be minimized by solving Vh(a) = VC(a) + H(d) (a - a) = 0. (3.26) Rearranging Equation (3.26) yields the Newton step a - d = -H(a) 1 V((a). 33 (3.27) Solving Equation (3.27) iteratively, the Newton-Raphson algorithm is given by dk+1 = 5k - (3.28) -ykH(dk)-V~(ak), where Yk is the step size. The basic Newton-Raphson algorithm specifies Yk = 1. Allowing it to vary based on a line search adds robustness to the algorithm [4]. The convergence rate of a minimization algorithm determines how many iterations it takes to arrive at a solution. A sequence of numbers {xi} displays linear convergence if limi,,, xi = x* and there exist some n < o Ixii - and 6 < 1 such that X*I< 6, for all i > n. |xi - x*l (3.29) Linear convergence adds a constant number of accurate digits to the estimate at each iteration. The sequence offers superlinearconvergence if limi,,, xi = x* and lim i-o +0 - Xj - x*1 = 0 (3.30) Approximate Newton's Methods exhibit superlinear convergence [4] and add an increasing number of accurate digits to the estimate each iteration. The sequence displays quadratic convergence if limiO, 0 xi = x* and there exist some n < o0 2 |xi - x*l < 6 and 6 < 00 such that for all i > n. 2 (3.31) Quadratic convergence doubles the number of accurate digits in the estimate every iteration. The Newton-Raphson method demonstrates quadratic convergence, but is computationally expensive. For a system with q parameters, the Hessian requires q(q+ 1)/2 second partial derivatives to be calculated. In practice, this can prove to be prohibitively expensive for large systems. Instead, the Hessian can be approximated by its expected value F(&k), using the form of F given in Equation (3.17). This form requires only the first partial derivatives, which are already calculated for the gradient. Although this approx- 34 imate Newton-Raphson method does not exhibit quadratic convergence, it can prove to be much less computationally expensive for problems with many parameters. Kalman Filters 3.2 Kalman Filters use Bayesian estimation to develop an optimal filter. FIMLOF uses the outputs of a Kalman Filter in concert with maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the model parameters. Kalman Filters require accurate system models to perform optimally. The suboptimality of a mismodeled system can be determined by a sensitivity analysis. 3.2.1 System Model The guidance system can be modeled using a linear, time-invariant, discrete-time statespace model driven by white noise, w, with white measurement noise, v so that Xk 1 k-1k- + Wk-1, Zk = HkXk + Vk. The terms of the model are: Xk ER : state vector at time tk Wk C RP : white plant noise vector at time tk Zk E R' : measurement vector at time tk Vk E" : white measurement noise vector at time tk : time index (k = 0, 1, 2, ... ) : state transition matrix from time tk to tk+1 tk E RE Xfl Hk E R'xn: system observation matrix at time tk Gk E Rnxp : system plant noise input matrix at time tk 35 (3.32) (3.33) The initial state vector x 0 has covariance P0 = E { [x 0 - :o] [XO -- 0 ]T } The plant noise covariance is given by E {ww } Qk = J tk to _ t0 (3.34) where N is the strength of the plant noise. The measurement noise has a covariance Rk = E {VkVk'. 3.2.2 Kalman Filter Equations Given the linear state space model described by Equations (3.32) and (3.33), the objective is to determine k, the best estimate of Xk for the given measurements. An optimal estimator is defined as one that minimizes the mean square estimation error. Under certain assumptions, an optimal estimator produces the same results as an efficient maximum likelihood estimator [9], given by Equation (3.21). This estimate is readily provided by a Kalman Filter. The Kalman Filter equations are well known [9, 13] and are summarized here. The state estimate propagation, 'is- =k-a1 ) (3.35) and the error covariance propagation, PC = <_k-1P + 1_ + Qk-1, (3.36) propagate the filter from one measurement to the next. The residue is the difference between the new measurement and the estimated value of the new measurement, given by rk = Zk - Hki;. 36 (3.37) The covariance of the residue can be expressed as Sk = HkPHT + Rk. (3.38) The Kalman gain matrix provides the filter gains, and may be written as Kk = P1 7HTSk 1 . (3.39) Xk = k- + Kkrk, (3.40) The state estimate update, and the error covariance update, p= [I - KkHk] P [I - KkHkI T + KkRkKj, (3.41) update the filter using the new measurements. Equation (3.42) can be rewritten as Pk= [I - KkHk] P. (3.42) Equation (3.41) is known as the Josephson form of the update equation [9]. It provides better numerical stability than Equation (3.42) at the expense of calculation time. 3.2.3 Mismodeling in Kalman Filters Much has been written about suboptimal filtering [9, 10, 13]. In Chapter 5, the performance of FIMLOF on systems with a variety of mismodelings is evaluated. Each of the mismodeled systems is a reduced-order model of the true system. In other words, the suboptimal models used in this thesis contain only states found in the truth model. Sen- sitivity analysis, the investigation of the effects of the mismodeling, is greatly simplified in this case. The state estimates from a suboptimal Kalman Filter reflect how well the filter estimates it has performed. Instead, it is of interest to determine the true performance 37 of the filter. Suppose that there are two models, the truth model M E Rnxn and the reduced-order model R E RSXs, with s < n. Model M has states x E RnX1 and model R has states t E R"Xl, with t consisting of a proper subset of x. In general, to perform a sensitivity analysis upon a mismodeled system, both models must be combined into a macromodel of dimension n + s. However, in the special case where M contains only a subset of the states in M, the models may be evaluated separately, at the expense of some additional bookkeeping. A Kalman Filter is run on M, using noise covariances Q and R, so that the Kalman Filter equations become Xtk = P Kk p =P =I )k-l1Xk- + 4k-1l"N-I1 1 J, kP 1 KgkNk] Qk-1 ky+ Rk) P- [I -- RkPk] T + RkAkRP. (3.43) The Josephson form of the state covariance update equation must be used. The gains, K, from Equation (3.43) may be restated in the dimension of model M. For example, suppose that model M has five states, called x 1 , x 2 , x 3, x 4 , and x 5 . Model M contains states x 1 , x 2 , and X5 . k then has elements Kxi K= (3.44) RX2. K may be restated in the dimension of M, so that Rm= 0 0 Kx5 38 . (3.45) The gains KM and noise covariances Q and R are then used in a Kalman Filter on M, given by = kDk-k -k k-1 [I +Q D k-1 k k k -1k- Qk-1 (k [MI k Hk] -H k ) PI--M] HklT+ [ ]Rk [kM] . (3.46) The state estimates from this filter are the true performance of a filter using model MI. 3.3 Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering FIMLOF Section 3.1 describes the basic method of maximum likelihood estimation. uses maximum likelihood estimation combined with a Kalman Filter to identify model parameters. The estimated parameters can be initial conditions, noise strengths [31], or even Markov processes [35]. This thesis focuses on the identification of measurement standard deviations and process noise strengths. The basic FIMLOF procedure involves iterating between a Kalman Filter and maximum likelihood estimation. The first guesses for the parameters of interest are chosen, and the Kalman Filter is run using these guesses. State information from the Kalman Filter is used to form a likelihood function, which is then maximized with respect to the unknown parameters, and the process is repeated with the resulting parameter estimates until convergence is reached. 3.3.1 The Likelihood Function The purpose of FIMLOF is to determine the model parameter estimates that have the highest probability of producing the observed measurements. To that end, it is necessary to know the conditional probability density of the measurement 39 Zk at time tk given all measurements zk-1 = [Zk_1, Zk-2,. . . , zO] prior to tk [35]. zo contains the initial conditions. It is assumed, in common with the system model given in Equations (3.32) and (3.33), that the noise sources are Gaussian. Then the probability density function is p (zklzk-) = (2r)" det [Sk]1" exp-rsi(r4/27) For the purposes of this thesis, the probability density function p(zklzk-1) should be written as p(zkzlz-; a), where a is the vector of unknown parameters, because the family of densities indexed by the parameter values is of interest [31]. The individual conditional probability density functions can be combined into a joint probability density function, so that p(zk; a) = p (zklzk-1; a) ... p (zjz 0 ; a) p (zo; a). (3.48) Equation (3.48), once expanded via Equation (3.47), is a function of only the residuals rk and the residual covariances Sk. Therefore, it can be calculated with the output of a Kalman Filter. As mentioned in Section 3.1.2, Equation (3.48) is converted to a sum rather than a product using the negative natural logarithm. The equation can be written as N - ln [p(zN a)] = Zn [P (zk izk-1;a)] (3.49) k=O where p (zo Iz -; -in Ln pP((k Zk a) - p (zo; a). Equation (3.47) becomes - a)] ) n(27) -'-nk~r + 1In det [Sk(af + 1t~tLkaj rk(a)'Sk (a)rk(a). (3.50) The term M2 ln(27r) from Equation (3.50) is dropped, because it is a constant and thus will have no effect on the derivatives or the minimization, yielding ((zlz1;I a) - 21Infdet [Sk(I + I rk(a)TS-_I(a)rk-1(a). k-2 2ndtSk] 40 (3.51) Equation (3.49) becomes the negative log-likelihood function, so that N ((ZN a) (k = (3.52) Zk-1; 0)- k=O Equation (3.52) is assembled recursively as the Kalman Filter proceeds or, by saving rk and Sk, once the filter is complete. Minimizing Equation (3.52) yields &, the maximum likelihood estimate of a. 3.3.2 Negative Log-Likelihood Function Minimization Section 3.1.6 details the maximum likelihood estimation solution method for an arbitrary likelihood function. Let & = [&1,. .. , &q]T be the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters. For FIMLOF iteration g, the parameter estimate is &g. Equation (3.28) is rewritten as & = &g-1 + 7gA- 1 (&g_i)Bgi(&). (3.53) A(&g) is the Hessian of the negative log-likelihood function, so that g2C( {kI k-1. a (zzka) N [A(N )& k=O 3 (3.54) ia&g B(&g) is the negative of the gradient of the negative log-likelihood function and can be expressed as N [B(&g)] = - E a)k-1. ( (zk k=O (3.55) 0=&g Convergence of the FIMLOF algorithm is reached when la - &g_1I < E, for a given e > 0. Formulas for E are discussed in Section 3.3.5. 41 (3.56) Recall from Section 3.1.4 that the Hessian may be approximated by its expected value N O (Zk Aij )k-1 kzk-1. a) E . (3.57) k=O This approximation is valid for a stationary system when the observation interval [0, tNl is much longer than the correlation times of &rk/cay and ark/aaj [31]. Equation (3.57) may be manipulated into the stochastic approximation to the Fisher Information matrix, so that NT Ai Ztr [ark_1(a) &rk(a) S1() k=O + ISkI 2 aoz (a) Sk_'1(a) ask -I(a) ca k . (3.58) See Reference [35] for a complete derivation of Equation (3.58). Equation (3.53) may be solved using the first partial derivatives of the likelihood function, which can be calculated analytically. From Equations (3.51) and (3.52), it follows that [351 8 N 19((zN. a) 7 (9ai - k-1. (Z IZ a i= 1, . .. , q (3.59) k=O where l(zkz-; a) - _rk_1_a = rk_1(a) Sl(a) 1 k 1 (a)S_ &O1( 1 (a) & k i(a)k SIr(a) + ItrSpii(a) S~(a)] 2 1 aaj _ (3.60) The calculation of the partial derivatives is computationally intensive, because the partial derivatives for rk and Sk are made up of the partial derivatives of the Kalman Filter equations. If the algorithm is solving for q parameters, it must perform the computational equivalent of q + 1 Kalman Filters every FIMLOF iteration. 42 The partial derivatives for rk and Sk vary depending on the type of the unknown parameters. The analytical partial derivatives necessary for unknown process noise strengths are presented in Section 3.3.3. The analytical partial derivatives for unknown measurement standard deviations are presented in Section 3.3.4. 3.3.3 Process Noise Equations FIMLOF can be used to estimate the value of a process noise strength in the system. Suppose that there is a white process noise with an unknown strength N. The process noise enters the Kalman Filter through the Q matrix. It may be possible to calculate the partial derivative of this matrix analytically; however, in the system used for this Q is essentially thesis, the method of calculating a black box. As such, an analytic partial derivative for Q is impossible. A numerical finite difference partial derivative can be calculated instead using Lagrange's Equation [2], so that 0f (x) ax 4 f (x + p) - f(x - p) _f(x 3 3 2u + 2p) - f (x - 2p) 4y (3.61) Equation (3.61) agrees with the Taylor Series expansion of the partial derivative to 3rd order. The partial derivatives of the Kalman Filter equations are given by =Dk aPDac Ork &Sk &o0zi k-1 aP+ k-1 = (3.62) < aP+ __ D Pk 1 ax k + 0Q- (3.63) Q ai __2- -H (3.64) &P &Oaj (3.65) = Hk aP HT (I - K =(I - K + ) H S k apP (I _ KkHk)T. rk (3.66) (3.67) Complete derivations of Equations (3.66) and (3.67) can be found in Appendix A.2. 43 3.3.4 Measurement Noise Equations Unknown values of the measurement standard deviation for the system can be estimated by FIMLOF. These parameters enter the Kalman Filter through the R matrix, the covariance of the measurements. Let vi be the measurement noise standard deviation of interest. The measurement noise vector is then v = v 1 ,.. . ,v, ... , Vr]T and R = E{vVT }. If it is assumed that the measurements are not correlated, then r2 F0 V1 2 V. OR Oaa and (3.68) 2vi VrV2 The partial derivatives of the Kalman Filter equations are given by Ooai OP- _P+ k k Or 8a Bar aSk acey (3.69) Ooai ___ -- (3.70) k-1 H acei _Hkar Hk 0 p,_ H ae as (3.71) Ba HT ± aRk- ko O9ce = (I- KkHk) OP+ s iP)T KkHk) ae P* Oaei + (3.72) Oac HS kk rk -- Kka Rk-1 S 09ae (I --KkHk)T ±Kk aRk- 1 KT + aa k~*i rk (3.73) (3.74) Complete derivations of Equations (3.73) and (3.74) can be found in Appendix A.2. 3.3.5 Convergence Criteria The Cramer-Rao lower bound asserts that the variance of a parameter i is greater than or equal to the corresponding diagonal element of the inverse of the Fisher information matrix, [F-I1 ]i. This implies that the standard deviation of an estimate is equal to the square 44 --- - 0.1 - .-- - - FIMLOF Estimate FIMLOF Estimate ± 1 Standard Deviation True Value 0.05 6 8 10 12 14 FIMLOF Iteration 16 18 Figure 3-1: Convergence of a parameter estimate. The estimate changes by more than two standard deviations between iterations 7 and 13. root of this term. The Cramer-Rao lower bound ensures that the estimate can never be exact - there is always some uncertainty as to the actual value. Consequently, run- ning FIMLOF until the likelihood function reaches its exact minimum serves no purpose, because the estimate is still not precise. Equation (3.56) gives the convergence criterion used in FIMLOF. The convergence bound Ej is defined to be Ei = p [F- 1]jj. (3.75) For this thesis, p = 0.01; therefore, when the change in each of the parameters is less than 1% of the standard deviations of their estimates, the algorithm is declared to be converged. The convergence bound must be chosen with some care. Setting p too small can lead to nonconvergence of the algorithm. Section 5.4 provides an example of nonconvergence. However, setting p too large leads to false convergence. Figure 3-1 shows an example where the parameter estimate walked more than a standard deviation over several iterations. If FIMLOF had been stopped at iteration 8, the estimate would have been almost 2 standard deviations from the final estimate. 45 [This page intentionally left blank.] Chapter 4 Robustness Analysis The robustness of FIMLOF is of critical importance. FIMLOF should be able to successfully identify parameter values that improve the calibration of the system. Sensitivity to first guess, false convergence, and failure to converge are all potential problems. In this chapter, the robustness of FIMLOF is investigated using synthetic measurements and a variety of reduced-order system models. Testing the robustness of FIMLOF using synthetic measurements instead of real ones has several benefits. First, the true system model is precisely known, so that FIMLOF's performance on complex systems may be evaluated without worrying about unknown modeling errors. Second, it is possible to intentionally introduce known modeling errors to investigate FIMLOF's performance. In addition, a sensitivity analysis on the suboptimal models can be performed because the true model is known. 4.1 System Models The system used in this thesis is an inertial measurement unit mounted on a centrifuge for calibration. The IMU contains four gimbals that support an inertial platform for the instruments. The platform is stabilized by 2 two-degree-of-freedom, dynamically tuned gyroscopes. They are nominally aligned in an orthogonal, right-hand frame with axes U, V, and W. This coordinate system is designated as the guidance computation frame. The gyros are aligned so that each one has an input axis along the W axis. The redundant 47 U X 1/8 Zw - -- ~~ 1/8 i - c/4 V Figure 4-1: Gyroscope and accelerometer coordinate systems. W axis is not used in computation. The velocity is measured by three PIGAs. The accelerometers are nominally aligned in an orthogonal, right-hand frame with axes X, Y, and Z. During testing, the position of the IMU is determined by integrating the signals from the accelerometers and gyros. Error models and state descriptions for each of these components may be found in Appendix B. The guidance computation frame may nominally be transformed into the accelerometer frame by two rotations. The first rotation requires a positive V axis. The second rotates +1/8 radian rotation about the +7r/4 radians about the positive, displaced X axis. The relative orientation of the two coordinate frames is shown in Figure 4-1. Throughout the thesis, the system is run in a "W-up" configuration with the W axis nearly vertical. The IMU is mounted near the end of a 10-meter centrifuge arm. The centrifuge arm position is measured by six targets unequally spaced around the circumference of the test chamber. passes. These targets record the position of the tip of the centrifuge arm as it These position fixes must be corrected to determine the position of the IMU rather than the tip of the arm. Appendix B.5 describes the proper transformation of the measurements. 48 0.02- 02Residuals -0 1 Standard Deviation L+ 200 400 600 Time [sec] 800 1000 1200 Figure 4-2: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 1 and synthetic data. A Kalman Filter that estimates the error states of the system already exists. The measurements that are fed into the Kalman Filter, ZKF, are formed from the difference between the IMU's integrated position, zIMu, and its position as measured by the centrifuge position sensors, zcent. The measurements are formed by ZKF ~ ZIMU - ZCent- (4.1) Figure 4-2 shows an example of the residuals from this Kalman Filter using synthetic data. FIMLOF is used to identify three noise parameters in the system: two process noise strengths and a measurement standard deviation. The process noise strengths consist of a random walk in gyro angle (GRWA) and a random walk in velocity (RWVL). Both are stochastic instrument errors and can be readily evaluated on a test bench, as described in Chapter 2. The measurement standard deviation (MEAS) results from the centrifuge position sensors. All of the noise parameters are considered to be independent of IMU orientation, so a single value is used for all three system axes. The filter contains other noise sources, such as PIGA quantization, that have very well known and unchanging values. These noise sources are not estimated. The initial conditions and covariances have been altered from the values used in the physical system. In addition, the noise strengths do not reflect the performance of the physical instrument. Consequently, although the numbers reported within this thesis are internally consistent, they bear little resemblance to the numbers from the physical system. Likewise, although the residuals, state estimates, and miss distances are qualitatively similar to those from the physical system (e.g., the miss distances from model A 49 -00 -- , --7- 200 - -400 600 Time [sec] -Residuals 1Standard Deviation 800 1000 1200 Figure 4-3: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 2. are twice the size of those from model B), they are quite different in magnitude. In other words, although reliable conclusions can be drawn from the results presented here, the numbers should not be applied to the physical system. FIMLOF is investigated first for the accurate model, denoted as Model 1. This provides a baseline and proves that the method will work under ideal conditions. FIMLOF is then tested using several variations of the correct model. These range from slight mismodelings, ignoring a small deterministic signal, to large mismodelings, dropping all but the largest error terms. All of these models are reduced-order versions of Model 1. Every model uses the same initial conditions and covariances. 4.1.1 Model 2 - No PIGA Harmonics Model Model 2 removes the PIGA gyro spin-rate harmonic error states from Model 1. They have a very small effect on the performance of the Kalman Filter, as can be seen from Figure 4-3. The residuals are nearly identical to those from Model 1, and the parameter estimates are nearly unchanged. This model represents a very well modeled system. A complete listing of the removed states may be found in Appendix C.1. 4.1.2 Model 3 - Small Deterministic Error Model In the W-up test configuration, the X-axis PIGA is nearly horizontal. Model 3 removes 9 of the PIGA states from Model 1, although it leaves the PIGA harmonics. The missing states are three separate error terms applied to each axis that create a small sinusoidal signal from the horizontal X-axis PIGA. A list of the missing states may be found in Appendix C.2. Figure 4-4 shows an example of the residuals from this model. This model 50 0.0 2 - - - - - -- - -0.02 200 400 - - -- 600 Time [sec] 800 . ...---- . -.. -Residuals 1 Standard Deviation 1000 1200 Figure 4-4: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 3. 0.04 .~ -0.04 -0.02 - 200 - ------ 400 --- 600 Time [sec] . Residuals -- 1 Standard Deviation - - 800 1000 1200 Figure 4-5: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 4. tests FIMLOF on a system that has a small deterministic error but is otherwise well modeled. 4.1.3 Model 4 - Minimum state with centrifuge model Model 4 removes a large number of terms from Model 1. Only those error sources that are most important, such as biases and scale factors, remain. The centrifuge target position biases are included, although the other centrifuge errors are removed. The complete list of removed states can be found in Appendix C.3. Model 4 does a poor job of modeling the system compared to any of the preceding models, as can be seen from the filter residuals in Figure 4-5. It provides a chance to test FIMLOF against a poorly modeled system. Such a model could be used as a first approximation of the system or for applications where calculation speed is more important than high accuracy. In such cases, FIMLOF would be very useful to save calibration time. 4.1.4 Model 5 Minimum state model Model 5 removes the centrifuge target position bias states from Model 4. The list of removed states may be found in Appendix C.4. Each of the centrifuge targets have 51 EEL 0.2 0 ,-. .17 - - - 1 Residuals ~ -0.1 200 600 400 Time (sec] 800 1000 1200 Figure 4-6: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 5. a position bias an order of magnitude larger than the filter residuals. Consequently, removing these states makes a large difference to the filter, as seen in Figure 4-6. The position biases are easily visible as striations in the filter residuals and have the same effect as a very large centrifuge speed-dependent sinusoidal error in the system model. This model would be unacceptable in practice, but it provides an example of FIMLOF's performance on extremely poorly modeled systems. 4.1.5 Synthetic Measurements Synthetic measurements have several advantages. First, the exact system model is known. Almost every physical system, on the other hand, requires some level of abstraction to model. The perfectly modeled synthetic data allows a definitive comparison of the performance of a suboptimal filter to the performance of an optimal filter. Second, the noise parameters of the system are known exactly. The performance of FIMLOF is under investigation, so knowing what values it should estimate is very important. Using Model 1, synthetic measurements to test FIMLOF are generated. A set of synthetic measurements are generated through a Monte Carlo process for a given system model and set of initial conditions and covariances. The initial conditions are propagated using Equation (3.32) with Wk =VQ D 2 (4.2) where VQ is the matrix of eigenvectors and DQ is the matrix of eigenvalues for Qk, the covariance of the process noise. Ak E R' is a normally distributed random noise with 52 Table 4.1: Standard deviations of noises used in synthetic measurements. Noise Parameter GRWA RWVL MEAS Value 1.5 x 10-2 3.0 x 10-6 3.5 x 10-3 Units arcsec/s g/ Hz ft a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Similarly, the synthetic measurements are created from Equation (3.33) with Vk = VRD 2Vk, (4.3) where VR is the matrix of eigenvectors and DR is the matrix of eigenvalues for Rk, the measurement noise covariance, and VkE R' is a normally distributed random noise with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Physical tests to calibrate an IMU can be expensive and time consuming - it is desir- able for FIMLOF to produce consistent parameter estimates for every set of measurements with the same underlying parameter values. However, FIMLOF identifies the parameter values most likely to have occurred based on the recorded measurements, and different sets of measurements may lead to different parameter estimates. Therefore, 20 sets of measurements are generated using the same parameter values. These noises are shown in Table 4.1. 4.2 Robustness Tests The robustness of FIMLOF can be evaluated in several ways. For a well modeled system, the FIMLOF parameter estimates should be close to the true parameter values. For more severe mismodelings, the parameter estimates should be larger than the true values in order to prevent the unmodeled errors from affecting the modeled states. It is well known that the residuals of a Kalman Filter can be reduced by raising the values of the filter process and measurement noise parameters [9]. This reduction comes at the expense of knowledge of the state estimates, however. Higher noise parameter values 53 keep the covariance higher, allowing the states to vary more. Increasing the process noise parameter values reduces the reliance of the filter upon previous events and causes it to give the current measurements more weight. Likewise, increasing the measurement noise parameter values increases the reliance of the filter on its model and decreases the weight it gives the measurements. Therefore, FIMLOF should decrease the filter residuals for mismodeled systems. 4.2.1 Determining Whiteness A perfectly modeled and tuned system should produce white residuals from its Kalman Filter [13]. however. A poorly modeled system will often have some structure to the residuals, In this case, the measurements will be correlated with the residuals. The correlation occurs because the system contains information that cannot be captured by any of the modeled states. Raising the plant noise parameter values whitens the residuals by reducing the filter's reliance on past events and giving more weight to the current measurements. Changing the model can also whiten the residuals, because more of the information can be explained by the states. For a perfectly modeled system, FIMLOF will tune the filter so that the residuals are white. In a suboptimal filter, the degree of whiteness of the residuals provides a measure of the degree of mismodeling. The autocorrelation of a signal is used to detect repeating patterns in a signal. For an infinite, zero-mean, discrete-time signal, y, the autocorrelation is given by +00 EZYi Yi~j (4.4) -00 If y is white, the autocorrelation function consists of a spike at ro and zero everywhere else. For a zero-mean signal of finite length, u E RNx1, the unbiased autocorrelation is given by N--1 rN N -- j|ji=- Ui j. (4.5) In this case, the autocorrelation will contain a spike at ro and small residuals everywhere else. 54 The whiteness of two signals of equal length can be qualitatively compared using the magnitudes of the residuals of their autocorrelation functions. The Lozow whiteness metric W [21] is defined as W =1 - A, (4.6) where N A_ N-1 r? j=1 3 r2 For a perfectly white signal of infinite length, W = 1, because the autocorrelation function will be zero everywhere except at ro. Using W, we can qualitatively compare the whiteness of residuals from Kalman Filters. Because the signals are finite length, none will be perfectly white. However, residuals from optimal Kalman Filters will be whiter than those from suboptimal Kalman Filters. 4.2.2 Miss Distance FIMLOF is performed on a centrifuge calibration of the IMU. The final error state estimates and covariances from the Kalman Filter are used after the calibration to navigate the IMU from missile launch to impact. For FIMLOF to be useful for calibration, the miss distance at impact should improve when using the state estimates that result from a filter using the FIMLOF parameter estimates. If FIMLOF is truly robust, it will improve the miss distance for any suboptimal filter. Like the sensitivity analysis described in Section 3.2.3, comparisons between the miss distances of different models cannot be made directly. Instead, the Kalman gains from a reduced state model must be used in the full state model to create state estimates that can then be used to calculate the miss distance. Figure 4-7 presents a diagram of the procedure for a reduced-order filter. Figure 4-8 diagrams the procedure for a reduced state filter tuned by FIMLOF. At the end of a calibration, the Kalman Filter produces final estimates of the system states and their covariances. The IMU state estimates and covariances may then be used to navigate a missile from launch to impact. This navigation is simulated by propagating 55 True Parame~ter Values Reduced State Filter Kree P suboptimal Full State Filter Missile Flight Miss Distance P Measurements Figure 4-7: Calculation of the miss distance for a reduced state filter. True Parameter Values FIMLOF Reduced KF State Filter Suboptimal Full State Filter XFIMLOF PFIMLOF Missile Miss Distance Flight Parameter Estimates FIMLOF Measurement Figure 4-8: Calculation of the miss distance for a reduced state filter tuned with FIMLOF. The reduced state filter is started with the true parameter values for the first FIMLOF iteration, but uses the FIMLOF parameter estimates for the subsequent iterations. the states and covariances via a ballistic state transition matrix 1. The equations are given by Ximpact -- Xlaunch, (4.7) = (4.8) impact DPlaunch) T. X impact E R 2 x 1 is the along-track and cross-track estimate of the impact error for the flight. Pimpact C R2x 2 is the covariance of the estimate. One measure of how well the IMU has performed is the miss distance, / [5]. Using the singular value decomposition of Pimpact, given by Pimpact = UpD v/, (4.9) the impact error is scaled so that A = UP-i'impact. 56 (4.10) Using Equations (4.9) and (4.10), the miss distance is defined by 7 = 0.29435 t1)2 [Dp3 11 + (D 2 2 [Dp]22) + 0.562 [Dp] 11 + 0.615 [Dp] 22 - In this thesis, the miss distances are normalized to be around 1. 57 (4.11) [This page intentionally left blank.] Chapter 5 Results Chapter 4 describes various tests to determine the robustness of FIMLOF. In this chapter, the results of these tests are described for five model configurations. In addition to a full state model, where the filter model is the same as the truth model, four reduced-order filter models are considered: a model without the PIGA harmonics, a model with a small sinusoidal error, a minimum state model including the centrifuge target bias states, and a minimum state model without the centrifuge target bias states. Model 1 is used to test FIMLOF's sensitivity to initial parameter estimates. FIMLOF is started with parameter values an order of magnitude too high and an order of magnitude too low. Models 2 through 5 are used to test its sensitivity to suboptimality. For each of these models, FIMLOF is started at the true parameter values and allowed to run. The resulting parameter estimates are used to generate residuals and miss distances for comparison. 5.1 Full State Model The full state model, also denoted as Model 1, generates the synthetic measurements. It is described in Section 4.1, and the noise values used to generate the synthetic measurements may be found in Table 4.1. Model 1 should need no adjustment when it is started from these noise values. Ideally, FIMLOF should accurately identify these values regardless of its starting point. The model is included both to prove that the implementation of 59 FIMLOF presented in this thesis works and to test its sensitivity to initial parameter estimates. The results in this section show that FIMLOF can accurately identify the true parameter values, subject to reasonable limitations. The starting estimates of the parameters are important. Starting FIMLOF with parameter estimates an order of magnitude too high has no effect on the parameter estimates it produces. Starting an order of magnitude too low, however, can lead to incorrect parameter estimates. When starting from the true parameter values, the residuals calculated from a filter using the FIMLOF parameter estimates are virtually identical to those calculated from a filter using the true values. Likewise, the whiteness of the residuals is unchanged. The miss distance is also unchanged, indicating that FIMLOF does not have an adverse effect on the final state covariances. These results demonstrate the FIMLOF is self-consistent except for a sensitivity to the initial parameter estimates. 5.1.1 FIMLOF Parameter Estimates The results for a filter using Model 1 show that, when started with parameter estimates that are equal to the true values or too high, FIMLOF returns estimates close to the true values. All parameter estimates are within two standard deviations of the true values. Most are within one, making them statistically indistinguishable from the true values. Starting from parameter estimates an order of magnitude lower than the true value leads to FIMLOF parameter estimates that are either much too low or have such large standard deviations that they are useless in practice. Starting from True Noise Values As expected, when started with parameter estimates equal to the true parameter values, FIMLOF identifies the parameters very accurately. Figure 5-1 shows the parameter estimates and standard deviations for each of the 20 sets of synthetic measurements. The FIMLOF parameter estimates vary slightly from the true values. Several, such as those from measurement set 20, are almost two standard deviations away from the true values 60 0.03 1 21 3 -.0 - 0x01 X10-3 Fiue51 I - * 0 ot s. 2 Ftaamft6 4 2al IL 0 tFIL 6 tmats e2al 8 foM - * C 12 14 16 18 h *siae tru 10 de 0 12 1,satn 14 0 0 6 5F ftrigfrmHg t 0 ) C te 0f t 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 1 c0 6 4 2 4 vae C l ts f 0 f fate Nois 10 4 the t 20 0t 18 paateesi fro 16 - bereetd. fat 20 ~ ~ ~ s1 14 14 18 2 estimateaoreofmgiuehhr tre rmpxmtr or rof m g t deh g wa t r e r m p r m t r Estimatesa FIMLOF For this test,~~~~~~~~ Detrob en entfyg yn Sasnar mt ILFhsntobeid Fi ue 2s o st ers s FIMLOF ValuesFiue52sostersls tru ~ .a..es rue than. the.than~~ t th For this the~ test, ~~~~~~~~~~~E .. true FIMLOF wa Vs alues.Teprmtretmtsfo hsts r eryietclt hs paameter estimates oo parameter tfo f for Modaod ll starinefo Thrmesersideabeate pa nsdramete etm escte ror FIMLOF erence. d1: rece Foiure di St btol 02arscs e 1 s24 mauemn values. eqamleo the teise onthese dneloiatyn (RWVhe). ard invityon wtnak standm the thweerandom andHwer (GRWA and setA asrn yoasureet thmedmwakiwakinro the3 random .5x1-ars/sfor for hypothesisththyderbehetu thethenull null hypothesisththedscieheru ntrahoees t5hofiecantrahoees thatofiec largehinug Thraetrestalues paraeter estimes are ilawithinog thtFMO siae h revalues cannot be rejected wt 5 ofdneitra. thtFMO Nise Hghfom Startng alue r 0.0 3 - 1 --*0- 8 0.0 0.0 0 0 4 * - 4 2 6 10 8 12 - 16 14 18 20 3. 0 0 UI 21 0 2 6 4 10 8 12 14 - - - 2. 5 18 16 20 x 10-3 ~0 4.6- * * 6 4.5- 0 * 0 0 * 6 * .. . .. . . w 4.4- * * -* 0 0 4 0 0 4 * 4 4 * * 4 * * : * . * 0 * o FIMLOF Es timate FIMLOF Es timate± 1 Standard Deviation True Value 20 10 12 14 16 18 Monte Carlo Run * 4.3 - - 0 2 4 6 8 Figure 5-2: FIMLOF parameter estimates for Model 1, starting from parameter estimates an order of magnitude higher than the true values. Starting from Low Noise Values In this test, the filter was started from parameter estimates an order of magnitude smaller than the true values. The results are shown in Figure 5-4. For these initial conditions, FIMLOF does a poor job of identifying the true values. One possible explanation is that the covariance envelope of the residuals is much smaller than the residuals, as seen in Figure 5-3. The assumptions of the Kalman Filter fail and the state estimates are inaccu0.04 .......... ..................... -0.02 -0.04 - -11 200 400 600 Time [sec] 800 Residuals 1 Standard Deviation 1000 1200 Figure 5-3: Example of Kalman Filter residuals using Model 1 and noise parameters an order of magnitude lower than the true values. 62 0.c 3- 1'rTT I I 16 18 *r C 0 0c 0 4p x 10-6 2 4 00 6 8 10 12 14 20 ** r 4 . CR o 4- 4- * v - 2- -True 0 2 4 6 8 FIMLOF Estimate FIMLOF Estimate 1 Standard Deviation Standard Deviation > 0.03 arcsec/s Value 10 12 Monte Carlo Run 14 16 18 20 Figure 5-4: FIMLOF parameter estimates for Model 1, starting from parameter estimates an order of magnitude lower than the true values. V indicates a parameter estimate standard deviation that is larger than 0.03 arcsec/s. rate. Therefore, FIMLOF cannot correctly calculate the partial derivatives of the filter to determine the parameter estimates for the next iteration. Another possible explanation could be that the expected value of the Hessian does not accurately reflect the true value of the Hessian for these residuals. More work is needed to determine the true cause of the poor performance. FIMLOF occasionally produces very small parameter estimates with very large standard deviations, such as some of the GRWA parameter estimates. Using measurement set 10, for example, the estimate of GRWA is 1.5 x 10-6 arcsec/s with a standard deviation of 3.5 arcsec/s. The true value of 1.5 x 10-2 arcsec/s is technically within those bounds, but the FIMLOF parameter estimate is worthless in practice. The parameter estimate has such a large standard deviation that it contains no worthwhile information about the actual parameter value. FIMLOF also produces parameter estimates that have very small standard deviations, 63 but are very inaccurate. This can be seen in the RWVL and measurement standard deviation (MEAS) estimates. For example, the estimate of MEAS in measurement set 10 is 1.4 x 10-3 with a standard deviation of 1.2 x 10'. This estimate is over 250 standard deviations away from the true parameter value of 4.5 x 10-. These low parameter estimates correspond to the estimates of GRWA that are very close to zero. From these results, it would seem that false convergence of one parameter estimate, such as the MEAS estimate, is indicated by very large standard deviations on another parameter estimate, such as the estimate for GRWA. Indeed, the measurement sets for which the GRWA estimates have small standard deviations also have proper convergence for the estimates of RWVL and MEAS. Unfortunately, these observations do not hold for filters with suboptimal models. The results from Models 3, 4, and 5 all include cases that have one parameter estimate with a standard deviation orders of magnitude larger than the estimate. In every case, however, none of the other parameter estimates show evidence of false convergence. 5.1.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness The residuals generated by running a filter using the true noise values (Figure 5-5) are very similar to the residuals generated by running a filter using the FIMLOF parameter estimates (Figure 5-6). This is to be expected, because FIMLOF has not changed the parameter estimates appreciably. Table 5.1 shows the means and standard deviations of the whiteness values of the filter residuals using the various noise values considered in Section 5.1.1. The whiteness values were calculated using the Lozow whiteness metric, defined in Section 4.2.1. According to the metric, a perfectly white, infinite length signal will have a whiteness value of 1. The residuals presented in this thesis are all finite length, so none have a whiteness value above 0.94. Using a pooled two-sample t-test [25], the null hypothesis that the FIMLOF parameter estimates do not cause a change in the mean whiteness of the residuals cannot be rejected at a 95% confidence interval. All of the sets of residuals are very white, as they should be - they come from the full state model driven with only white noise. 64 0.02 -. 0. 01 - 0 .. . - -- - 02 - -: - -Y 200 400 -% - - - - .-- -- --0. 01 -0. - -..-.... ...... 800 600 1000 120 0 0.I 0. 31 0 -0. 31 - ---- -1 .. .-.. *17. ---200 400 600 800 1000 120 0 0.02 --... .-..... --...... - 001- 0 -- - -- .-- -- - -- -0.01 - Residua1 Standard Deviation -- -0.02 200 400 600 Time [sec] 800 1000 1200 Figure 5-5: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 1 and true noise values. 0.0 2 0.0 0 - AX -0.0 -0.0 1. 2 -.. * - 200 - i - - .r -. 400 -* e- . .. . 600 - .a. 800 * - .-...-.*% 1000 1200 U.02 0 .0 1 - -- .. .---. - - - . S- . 01~~- 6 . -o Fir---- *e -0. 200 400 600 800 - 1000 1200 0.0 2 0.0 1 -.-.-... 0 -- - -0.0 -0.0 - -- . 200 400 600 Time [sec] 800 1 Residuals -- 1 Standard Deviation 1000 1200 Figure 5-6: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 1 and FIMLOF estimates for noise values. 65 Table 5.1: The means and standard deviations of the whiteness values of the filter residuals using Model 1 and the 20 measurement sets. Parameter Values Used True values FIMLOF estimates when started from true values High values FIMLOF estimates when started from U Axis Average Standard Deviation 0.93512 0.014671 V Axis Average Standard Deviation 0.93313 0.014633 W Axis Average Standard Deviation 0.93626 0.018569 0.93535 0.014451 0.93317 0.014461 0.93632 0.018538 0.92760 0.018689 0.91013 0.051626 0.92348 0.027507 0.93535 0.014451 0.93317 0.014461 0.93632 0.018538 0.93048 0.019919 0.93053 0.015344 0.93283 0.022256 0.93214 0.017901 0.93239 0.014011 0.93515 0.019197 high values Low values FIMLOF estimates when started from low values 5.1.3 Miss Distances Figure 5-7 shows the miss distances after propagation of the errors to impact for the filter using Model 1. The miss distances calculated using the true noise values are very similar to the miss distances calculated using the FIMLOF noise estimates. Using a pooled twosample t-test with a 95% confidence interval, the null hypothesis that the two sets of miss distances are drawn from the same population cannot be rejected. The variations in miss distance between the two sets can be explained by the differences between the FIMLOF parameter estimates and the true values. 5.2 No PIGA Harmonics Model Model 2 does not include the PIGA harmonic states. As discussed in Section 4.1.1, the PIGA harmonics have only a small effect on the filter. More importantly, they have only a very small effect on the navigation or miss distances. The model demonstrates the performance of FIMLOF for a well-modeled system. FIMLOF is started from parameter estimates equal to the true noise values. The pa- 66 4 - Optimal Miss Distance Miss Distance Using Model 1 and FIMLOF Estimates 3 -..-.-.-.-.- . -.-.-.-.-.-........ -. -. . -. .. ...-. -. -. 2 .5 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Monte Carlo Run - - - 1.5 - - 14 16 18 20 Figure 5-7: Normalized miss distances for Model 1. rameter estimates from FIMLOF are close to the true values, and the residuals are largely unchanged. Consequently, the residual whiteness is unaffected, and the miss distances are similar. 5.2.1 Parameter Estimates Figure 5-8 shows values for the FIMLOF parameter estimates for Model 2. In almost every case, the estimate of RWVL is slightly larger than the true value. This makes sense - the mismodeling occurs in the accelerometer model and RWVL is an accelerometer noise. Furthermore, the PIGA harmonics are errors in the velocity measurement. The estimates of GRWA and MEAS are very close to their estimates using Model 1. 5.2.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness Figure 5-9 shows the residuals from measurement set 1 using the true noise values. Figure 5-10 shows the residuals from the filter using the FIMLOF estimates. 67 The residuals 0.030 0.02- 0.01 -* - *0 * 0 - * * 0 0 * * 0 0 * *0 0 0 0 * o 0 . ... . . * 6 4 2 10 8 0 o * 0 0 12 14 0 * 0 * 0 A * .- 16 20 18 4. . x X10 4- - * -0 * 0 2 6 4 * x 10o3 8 - - II? * * ~**** 10 * 12 14 16 18 20 0* ** 00 O 4. 4. )U ^D ul 4. -o FIMLOF Estimate aFIMLOF Estimate 03*- 4. 0 2 4 1 Standard Deviation - True Value 6 8 12 10 Monte Carlo Run 14 16 18 20 Figure 5-8: FIMLOF estimated noise values for Model 2, starting from parameter estimates equal to the true noise values. generated by the filter using Model 2 with the FIMLOF parameter estimates are very similar to the residuals from a filter using the true noise values. These results occur because the mismodeling is small, as are the changes to the parameter estimates. The whiteness of the residuals was calculated using the Lozow metric and is displayed in Table 5.2. Both sets of residuals are nearly as white as the residuals from the full state filter. This indicates both that PIGA harmonic states have little effect and that the adjustments that FIMLOF made are minor. 5.2.3 Miss Distances Figure 5-11 shows the miss distances after propagation of the errors to impact for a filter using Model 2. Three miss distances are displayed. Those labeled "Optimal Miss Distance" are the miss distances from a filter using Model 1 and the true noise values. They represent the optimal performance of the system. The miss distances labeled "Miss 68 0.02 0.0 1 ...-.-.-..-..- ....... .. -. Ix- 0 . ... -. -.-.-.-.-. -0.01 r7.7 200 - 400 600 800 1000 1200 II 1110 0.01 - 0 - -0.01 --.. - -, ;. -0.02 -. - - 200 - ,-r 400 -- - 600 -- 800 1000 1200 0.0 2 ~.. 0.0 .......... -0.0 1 ---0.0 2 Residuals 1 Standard Deviation 200 400 600 Time [sec] 800 1000 1200 Figure 5-9: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 2 and true noise values. 0.02T0.01--- - 0 -0.01 .--. -7 -..-.--.-200 600 400 800 1000 1200 0.02 -. 0.01 0 -.-.--.-. .... .. .. 46:j$ -~~~~~~~~ - - -- - - -0.01 -U. 02 200 400 600 800 1000 120C n A2 0.0 - - - 1- -. -0.0 -0.0 1... ---200 11N - - --;-- '-: 7i 1400 --- - - - - 7 Residuals 1 Standcard Deviation 600 Time [sec] 800 1000 1200 Figure 5-10: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 2 and FIMLOF parameter estimates. 69 Table 5.2: The means and standard deviations of the whiteness values of the filter residuals using Model 2 and the 20 measurement sets. The filter was started each time using the true noise values. U Axis Parameter Values Used True values FIMLOF estimates when started from true values V Axis Average Standard 0.93211 0.93281 1 W Axis Average Standard Average Standard Deviation 0.016037 0.93220 Deviation 0.015577 0.93583 Deviation 0.019479 0.015447 0.93223 0.015417 0.93592 0.019498 1 R* Miss Distance Using Model 2 and True Noise Values Miss Distance Using Model 2 and FIMLOF Estimates Optimal Miss Distance * 5.5 + ..... 5 - -- .- 4.5[ "a - - -.-.-.-- - -.- + - 4 0 CO) 3.5 . - .* E) a) 3 - 2.52 1.511 0 . ... *- - + - -.-.-. -.-.-.-.- --- - * -.- -. 2 4 - 6 8 2 4 6 8 .-.-.-. 12 10 12 Monte Carlo Run 14 - 16 18. 20 14 16 18 20 Figure 5-11: Normalized miss distances for Model 2. 70 Distance using Model 2 and True Noise Values" are calculated using the method shown in Figure 4-7. The Kalman gains from a filter using Model 2 and the true noise values are used in the full-state filter with the true noise values. They represent how well the system will perform when calibrated with the suboptimal filter model and the true noise values. The miss distances labeled "Miss Distance using Model 2 and FIMLOF Noise Estimates" are calculated using the method shown in Figure 4-8. FIMLOF is performed on a filter using Model 2 and started from parameter estimates equal to the true noise values. After FIMLOF converges, the reduced-order filter is run again using the FIMLOF parameter estimates. The resulting Kalman gains are used in the full-state filter with the true noise values. These miss distances represent how well the system will perform when calibrated using the suboptimal model and the FIMLOF parameter estimates. The missing PIGA harmonic states have very little effect on the miss distance. They have a small enough effect on the system that the errors they model do not change the calibration of the remaining states. Using the FIMLOF-estimated parameters in a filter with Model 2 does not produce a statistically significant change in the miss distances with a pooled two-sample t-test and a 95% confidence interval, the null hypothesis that the miss distances are drawn from the same population cannot be rejected. The FIMLOF parameter estimates are very similar to the true values, so the miss distances are likewise unchanged. 5.3 Small Sinusoidal Error Model The small sinusoidal error model, Model 3, removes several of the PIGA states. The missing states cause the residuals to contain a sinusoidal signal when a PIGA is horizontal. An example can be seen in Figure 4-4. Once again, FIMLOF is started from parameter estimates equal to the true noise values. The results using this model demonstrate the performance of FIMLOF for a well modeled system with a small deterministic error. 71 0.c 3 T 0.c 1 -.. T T V T T -- - - . - - C1. ....... ..... .. ...... ..... 0 2 4....1.12 * o 6 4 20 0 2 0 0c 41-x 106 14...1 12 10 8 14 . 18 16 2 20 - 0 - 0 864- - 0 2 .2 * 4 8 6 -- 10 -* 12 FML* t n adD 14 0siae1Sadr 16 vaio .3 18 eito a e 20 / Tr.....u 44 .... .. .. ... .... 4 * C FIMLOF Estimate *FIMLOF Estimate ±1 Standard Deviation v Standard Deviation > 0.03 arcsec/s True Value 18 20 10 12 14 16 Monte Carlo Run o -u 4 .2 - II- 0 2 4 6 8 Figure 5-12: FIMLOF estimated noise values for Model 3, starting from parameter estimates equal to the true noise values. V indicates a parameter estimate standard deviation that is larger than 0.03 arcsec/s. 5.3.1 Parameter Estimates The FIMLOF parameter estimates for a filter using Model 3 are shown in Figure 512. The estimates of GRWA are all within or close to one standard deviation from the truth, but the standard deviations of the parameter estimates are very large for many of the measurement sets. For example, the estimate of GRWA for measurement set 6 has a standard deviation of 2.2 arcsec/s. As discussed in Section 5.1.1, this estimate is worthless in practice - it is far too uncertain. The estimates of RWVL are higher than the true values, although this can be explained by the suboptimality of the accelerometer model. The estimates of MEAS are slightly higher as well. 72 0.02 0.01 .-..--4 ..-0 I .... . --- ' - . . - - 0.0 1 _- .-- -... ...-.. . -0.02 200 400 600 800 .... 1000 1200 0.02 00 1 0 L -0.01 ~ : |-- * - --- - -0.02- - ....-... .. -. -........ 200 --- 400 600 800 1000 1200 0.02 0.01 - . ----. -0.01 - . - -- ---- - -- -' - - Residuals -- - -- -0.02 200 - 1 Standard 400 600 800 Figure 5-13: Kalman FilterI!, r esiduals uigMdl3adtu Time [sec] Deviation 1000 1200 aus s 0 -0.01 %... .... ..... -0.02 200 400 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 600 800LO -i 1000 1200- 600 800 1000 1200 0.02 -0.02 0 2 -0.021 - --- -0.01 - - 0.02 200 0 -M.a - -.... . ...... - -..-- -.-. --- -..-.- 0 .0 1 ---... -- - 400 - -- - - - ; - : -- -0.02 200 400 600 Time Figure 5-14: Kalman Filter e - -0- residuals Model 73 800 i u l 1.......d 1000 r rd... a io 120 [seci 3 and FIMLOF parameter estimates. Table 5.3: The means and standard deviations of the whiteness values of the filter residuals using Model 3 and the 20 measurement sets. The filter was started each time using the true noise values. Parameter U Axis Average Standard V Axis Average Standard W Axis Average Standard Deviation Deviation Deviation Values Used True values FIMLOF estimates when started from true values 5.3.2 0.93087 0.024554 0.93183 0.014863 0.93297 0.020000 0.93334 0.018636 0.93247 0.014319 0.93368 0.019804 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness The residuals generated by a filter using Model 3 and the true noise values (Figure 5-9) are no worse than the residuals from the a filter using the FIMLOF estimates (Figure 5-10). Although the sinusoidal signal shown in the U-axis of Figure 5-9 appears to be reduced in Figure 5-10, performing a power spectral density on the residuals reveals that the energy at that frequency remains unchanged. The means and standard deviations of the whiteness values of the filter residuals are given in Table 5.3. Using a pooled two-sample t-test at a 95 % confidence interval,the null hypothesis that the whiteness is unchanged cannot be rejected. The sinusoidal signal in the residuals, although caused by the PIGAs, cannot be removed by the parameters that FIMLOF identifies. A random walk such as GRWA or RWVL does not approximate a sinusoid well, so FIMLOF is unable to reduce the sinusoid in the residuals by raising the noise. 5.3.3 Miss Distances Figure 5-15 shows the miss distances for the errors propagated to impact from a filter using Model 3 for each set of synthetic measurements. The miss distances for Model 3 are very similar to the miss distances for the full state model. The PIGA states missing from Model 3 are a part of the miss distance calculation, but they only play a minor role. The remaining states do not change dramatically as a result of the missing states, so the miss distance remains largely unchanged. We cannot reject the null hypothesis at a 95% 74 I S * + 5.5 I I Miss Distance Using Model 3 and True Noise Values Miss Distance Using Model 3 and FIMLOF Estimates Optimal Miss Distance -.- 5 -* 4.5 f .... ........... ........ -+ 4 ........................ -. ........ cts 3.5 F... .. .. -.. E 3 .............. ci, - 2.5 . I 4 ± 2 .............. - . - 1.5- 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Monte Carlo Run 14 16 18 20 Figure 5-15: Normalized miss distances for Model 3. confidence interval that the miss distances are drawn from the same population. 5.4 Minimum State with Centrifuge Model Model 4 contains only the states necessary for a basic model of the IMU and centrifuge. All of the less important error states have been removed. Because of these missing states, the filter residuals are quite large. The calibration of the filter using this model also suffers. Consequently, the miss distances for a filter using the true noise values increase substantially. The results from Model 4 demonstrate the performance of FIMLOF on a poorly modeled system. 5.4.1 Parameter Estimates Figure 5-16 shows the parameter estimates. FIMLOF does a poor job estimating the true values. With the exception of the estimates for measurement set 2, all of the estimates of 75 2 CU) 0 cs 0. 0 0 2 4 6 12 10 8 14 16 18 20 X10' 0 00 . -. o -U 2 4 6 4 -. - - -.. .. -..... . 8 12 10 o ......... -... * w S 2 4 0 2 4 14 16 18 20 FIM LO F Estim ateFIMLOF Estimate 1 Standard Deviation v Standard Deviation > 6x1 0-6 g8 Hz 6 8 10 -- True Value 12 14 Monte Carlo Run 16 18 20 Figure 5-16: FIMLOF estimated noise values for Model 4, starting from parameter estimates equal to the true noise values. V indicates a parameter estimate standard deviation that is larger than 6 x 10-6 g/v'iz. Measurement sets 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 17, and 19 fail to converge. GRWA are at least an order of magnitude higher than the true values. The estimate for measurement set 10 is nearly two orders of magnitude higher. Estimates of RWVL are widely scattered, ranging from 7.1 standard deviations too high (measurement set 2) to 2.8 standard deviations too low (measurement set 8). For seven of the 20 measurement sets (3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 17, and 19), FIMLOF does not converge. An example of the evolution of the parameter estimates for measurement set 3 is shown in Figure 5-17. For these measurements, FIMLOF does not converge after 30 iterations, so the algorithm terminates unsuccessfully. This behavior is caused by the Newton-Raphson algorithm used by FIMLOF. The parameter estimates are oscillating around a minimum, but failing to reach it. Logic to recognize this phenomenon and adjust the step size might solve the problem, but is not used in this thesis. This behavior only seems to appear for poorly modeled systems, and so might be an indication of serious mismodeling. 76 I 0.5- -I-O-E-i-- 0 5 15 X1 5 .. . . .. .. 5 "0 Fu -17- 5 10 15 20 25 --.. .. ... ... 10 - 15 FMLOF -Estimate FIMLOF Estimate -- True Value - . 20 25 0 30 1 Standard l Deve 4, with on no-cnverenc- -! 4- 30 - ft -!7 5 10 15 FIMLOF Iteration 20 25 30 Figure 5-17: FIMLOF parameter evolution for Model 4, with no convergence after 30 iterations. 5.4.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness Figure 5-18 shows the residuals for a filter using Model 4 with the true noise values and measurement set 1. Figure 5-19 shows the residuals for a filter using the FIMLOF parameter estimates, which are smaller and have less structure. Table 5.4 shows the mean and standard deviations of the whiteness of the filter residuals. Despite the improvements to the residuals shown in Figure 5-19, we cannot reject the null hypothesis at a 95% confidence interval that the whiteness is unchanged. Neither set of residuals is as white as those from a filter using Model 1. The noise parameters that FIMLOF identifies cannot adequately explain the effects of the removed states in Model 4. 77 R- -4w 0. 04 0. 02 Dn -. - . --.-.- - - .. ... -. -0. 04 A 200 400 800 600 1000 1200 0.04 0.02 0 --. -0.02 -0. 04 200 -. - -1 1000 800 600 400 120( n AA 0.02 - - -- -------- - -V,:,.,* - ---- -- c - ---. -I 0 -.....-... -..... -R . -0.02 -0.04 400 200 esiduals 1 Standard Deviation 600 1000 800 Time [sec] 1200 Figure 5-18: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 4 and true noise values. 0. 04 0. CA A, -0. 02 - - - -- -0. 04Ar7 ....-. 1000 800 600 400 200 1201 0. 04, ... -.. ... .... ................................. . 0.02 - .. CA .......... -- 0 - - -0.02 -U. 800 600 400 200 - -9 1000 1201 A 0.02 CA 0 -0.02 -0.04 - - . -.200 Residuals 1 Standard Deviation . 400 600 Time [sec] 800 1000 1200 Figure 5-19: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 4 and FIMLOF parameter estimates. 78 Table 5.4: The means and standard deviations of the whiteness values of the filter residuals using Model 4 and the 20 measurement sets. The filter was started each time using the true noise values. W Axis V Axis U Axis Standard Average Average Standard Average Standard Parameter Tru vlus FIMLOF estimates when started from true values 5.4.3 Deviation Deviation Deviation Values Used .8706 0.037047 0.86804 0.06385 0.89237 0.538 0.90148 0.036245 0.90502 0.033785 0.89639 0.049465 Miss Distances Figure 5-20 shows the miss distances for error states propagated to impact from filters using each synthetic measurement set and Model 4. The miss distances calculated using the FIMLOF parameter estimates in the reduced state filter are on average 3.7 times larger than the optimal miss distances, while the miss distances calculated using the true values in the reduced state filter are on average 14.2 times larger than the optimal miss distances. The miss distances calculated from the filter using the FIMLOF parameter estimates are smaller than the miss distances from the filter using the true noise values on Model 4 in every case except measurement set 2. As seen in Section 5.4.1, the FIMLOF estimates of GRWA for this set of measurements was 1.9 x 10-2 arcsec/s, and less that one standard deviation from the true value of 1.5 x 10' arcsec/s. The FIMLOF parameter estimate for every other measurement set was at least an order of magnitude higher than the true value. Therefore, it appears that FIMLOF displays false convergence for measurement set 2. The improvement in the miss distance seen by using the FIMLOF parameter estimates instead of the true parameter values to calibrate the filter for Model 4 is substantial. Using a pooled two-sample t-test and a 95% confidence interval, the null hypothesis that the miss distances are drawn from the same population can be rejected. Using the true parameter values forces the errors from the missing states to affect the estimates of the remaining states in the reduced state filter. FIMLOF pulls the errors into the noise parameter 79 40 + Miss Distance Using Model 4 and True Noise Values Miss Distance Using Model 4 and FIMLOF Estimates Optimal Miss Distance 35 30 0 C Cu 25 ... . .. 0 0, 0, -F -. 20 . - .-.. . -.. Cu E a, 15 - Lii * - - .. - ... ......I -. 10 ........ 5. ** * U- 0 2 4 6 * * ±± + 8 12 10 Monte Carlo Run 14 16 18 + I--- 20 Figure 5-20: Normalized miss distances for Model 4. estimates instead. As a result, the parameter estimates are much larger than the true values, but the state covariance estimates are much closer to the optimal ones. The system therefore does a much better job navigating when calibrated using the FIMLOF parameter estimates. 5.5 Minimum State Model Model 5 is exceedingly poor. It removes the centrifuge position bias states from Model 4. These bias states are much larger than the magnitude of the residuals from a filter using Model 4, so the residuals from a filter using Model 5 have large striations in them. As a result, the FIMLOF parameter estimates are much larger than the true values of the noise strengths; however, the miss distances calculated using these estimates are surprisingly close to the optimal miss distances. 80 2 -- - - - a: a 00 0 0 2 4 I p * I p 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 x 106- - - 0 0.1 9 Lu 2 4 FIMLOF Estimate SFIMLOF Estimate ±1 Standard Deviation Standard Deviation > 7x10-' g/q Hz -True Value 5o .1 -v 0 -- e0 0.0 5 --0 -----2 -----------4 6 8 10 12 Monte Carlo Run 14 16 18 20 Figure 5-21: FIMLOF estimated noise values for Model 5, starting from parameter estimates equal to the true noise values. V indicates a parameter estimate standard deviation that is larger than 7 x 10-5 g/v/iH . Measurement sets 5, 6, and 16 fail to converge. 5.5.1 Parameter Estimates Figure 5-21 shows the parameter estimates for a filter using Model 5. 3 of the 20 measurement sets (5, 6, and 16) failed to converge. Interestingly, fewer cases failed to converge for a filter using Model 5 than for a filter using Model 4, despite the more serious mismodeling. The estimates of GRWA are very large and widely scattered. They range from within one standard deviation of the true value (measurement set 8) to over 17 standard deviations away from the true value (measurement set 3). The estimates of RWVL range from nearly true (measurement set 8) to over an order of magnitude too large (measurement set 13). The estimates of MEAS are all an order of magnitude too high. The large FIMLOF parameter estimates are evidence of very serious midmodeling. 81 0.21 0. 1 - -.. - .. ---.. ... * --. .. ........-. . .... ..... ... .......... - -.. ..... -.. ....................... ...........--- -0.1 -0.2 400 200 600 800 1000 1200 600 800 1000 120 0 0.2 0. 1 - ---- -0. 1 -[- -0. -2 200 400 0. 1.........-. 0 -0. 1 .............. ..................................- - 2-1 200 -0. 2 600 Time [sec] 400 Reidal Residuals 1 Standard Deviation -- 120 0 1000 800 Figure 5-22: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 5 and true noise values. A .2- - 0.1 0 - -- - w - -0.1 600 400 200 1200 1000 800 0. 2 , 1..... 0. ... 0,F 0 ... . -.. -.-.. -0. - 2 -- - . . . . . .. . .... -0. 2 . ... . . . . . . .. . 600 400 200 . . .. . ... . . . .. . . ... . . . . . 1000 800 1200 0. 4 0.1 an 0 .~ ~ - - -0.1 - -. - -02 21 200 400 600 Time [sec] 800 Residuals 1 Standard Deviation 1000 1200 Figure 5-23: Kalman Filter residuals using Model 5 and FIMLOF parameter estimates. 82 Table 5.5: The means and standard deviations of the whiteness values of the filter residuals using Model 5 and the 20 measurement sets. The filter was started each time using the true noise values. U Axis V Axis W Axis Parameter Average Standard Average Standard Average Standard Values Used Deviation Deviation Deviation True values FIMLOF estimates 0.55013 0.05998 0.52781 0.090789 0.56066 0.083877 when started from true values 0.54923 0.063786 0.53886 0.091441 0.56383 0.072848 5.5.2 Residual Magnitude and Whiteness Figure 5-22 shows the filter residuals from measurement set 1 using Model 5 and the true noise values. Figure 5-23 shows the residuals from a filter using the FIMLOF estimates. The residuals from the filter using the FIMLOF parameter estimates are not much changed from the filter residuals using the starting noise values. FIMLOF has been unable to remove the visible striations caused by the centrifuge target biases in the measurements. Despite the order of magnitude changes to the noise estimates, the filter residual magnitudes are largely unchanged. The covariance envelope has expanded to a much more reasonable estimate; however, it does not perfectly bound the residuals. The covariance envelopes for the U-axis and V-axis residuals are still too small, while the envelope for the W-axis residuals is now too big. This result occurs because the measurement noise is modeled as being equal on all axes. For the full state model, MEAS is indeed equal on all axis. Model 5 no longer meets this assumption, however, because the centrifuge target position biases have been removed. The biases do not affect each axis equally, so the U-axis and V-axis require more measurement noise than the W-axis. Table 5.5 shows the mean and standard deviations of the whiteness values from the Lozow metric for the filter residuals. Using the FIMLOF parameter estimates in the filter causes some changes to the whiteness values, but the changes are not large. The null hypothesis that the whiteness values are drawn from the same population cannot be rejected at a 95% confidence interval. 83 CA 45 40 35 30 25 - E20 -- u - .. .. ... 15 -Miss Distance Using Model 5 and True Noise Values. .. . . .. . . . . . .. . Estimates *Miss Distance Using Model 5 and..FIMLOF Miss Distance Optimal ............ 12..14..16.18 8.. .. 10 ...... 4.. .....6....... .. . . . ..20 - -- 10 -* 2 + - -+~ 5 0 . 4 6 8 12 10 Monte Carlo Run 14 16 18 20 Figure 5-24: Normalized miss distances for Model 5. 5.5.3 Miss Distances Figure 5-24 displays the miss distances calculated for each synthetic measurement set. The miss distances calculated using the true parameter values and Model 5 are on average 19.1 times larger than the optimal miss distances. The miss distances calculated using the FIMLOF parameter estimates are quite close to the optimal miss distances, averaging only 1.3 times larger. Interestingly, the miss distances calculated using the FIMLOF estimates for the filter using Model 5 are smaller than the miss distances calculated using FIMLOF estimates for the filter using Model 4. FIMLOF tunes the suboptimal filter using Model 5 very well. Using a pooled two-sample t-test and a 95% confidence interval, the null hypothesis that the miss distances calculated using the reduced-order filter and the true values and the miss distances calculated using the reduced-order filter and the FIMLOF estimates are drawn from the same population can be rejected. 84 Chapter 6 Conclusion Full Information Maximum Likelihood Optimal Filtering (FIMLOF) is a specialized form of system identification, useful for identifying initial state covariances and system noise parameters. In this thesis, it was used to identify the noise parameters of an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). Specifically, the robustness of FIMLOF was evaluated using synthetic measurements from the IMU. The sensitivity of FIMLOF to initial parameter estimates and reduced-order models was investigated using Kalman Filter residuals, the FIMLOF parameter estimates, and their associated statistics. The results show that FIMLOF can be very successful at tuning suboptimal filter models. 6.1 Summary of Results For well-modeled systems, the FIMLOF parameter estimates are very close to the true parameter values, indicating the validity of the method. FIMLOF does have some sensitivity to initial parameter values; however, the estimates are accurate unless the initial parameter values are much too small. Tuning of Suboptimal Filters. Suboptimal system models receive significant benefit from FIMLOF. The miss distance (the distance between the target and the actual impact point) of such systems improves when using calibrations with FIMLOF-estimated noise values. The miss distance is calculated from the state estimates and their covariances. Therefore, its improvement is a good indication that the calibration of the system 85 has been substantially improved by tuning the model with FIMLOF. Detection of Mismodeling. FIMLOF sometimes fails to converge for suboptimal system models. The parameter estimates vary around a point instead instead of converging to it. The variations can be large, sometimes multiple standard deviations of the parameter estimates between iterations. Failure to converge can be a sign of significant mismodeling in the system. Initial Parameter Estimate Sensitivity. FIMLOF proves to be largely insensitive to the initial parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates that are much too low can lead to the algorithm converging to an incorrect value. However, FIMLOF does not appear to display this behavior when started with very large initial parameter estimates. Consequently, the initial parameter estimates should be larger than the expected system noise values. 6.2 Future Work Determine Cause of Initial Parameter Estimate Sensitivity. As previously mentioned, FIMLOF is susceptible to very low initial parameter estimates. Several reasons have been hypothesized in this thesis. One possibility is that the low initial parameter estimates cause the covariance envelope of the residuals to be much smaller than the residuals themselves. When this occurs, the assumptions of the Kalman Filter are violated, and the filter does not accurately estimate the model states. In this case, FIMLOF would calculate inaccurate partial derivatives of the filter. Another possibility is that the expected value of the Hessian used by FIMLOF could be quite different from the true value. In this case, the Newton-Raphson method would fail to converge to the correct value, because the incorrect approximation to the Hessian would lead it in the wrong direction. More work is needed to determine the true cause of the problem. Compare FIMLOF to Other Algorithms. No attempt was made in this thesis to compare the performance of the FIMLOF algorithm to that of other search algorithms. It is possible that another search method (for example, a non-gradient algorithm) would require fewer computations or exhibit less sensitivity to initial conditions. 86 Although FIMLOF has been shown to be quite robust and successful in tuning suboptimal filters, another method may be even more successful. More work is needed to evaluate the performance of other algorithms. Separate Parameters for Individual Axes. FIMLOF currently treats the model parameters as equal for all instruments. For example, the same random walk in angle estimate is used for each of the gyroscopes in the IMU. Several benefits could be realized by estimating a separate parameter for each instrument. First, the impact of instrument observability issues would be limited. Second, an out-of-spec instrument could be detected from its parameter estimate. In this case, a bad instrument would have a parameter estimate quite different from the other two. More work is needed to determine the viability of estimating individual parameters and to implement a damage detection scheme for the instruments. 87 [This page intentionally left blank.] Appendix A Derivation of Selected Partial Derivatives In this Appendix, several of the more complex partial derivatives of the Kalman Filter equations are derived. A.1 Derivative of a Matrix Inverse Consider an invertible matrix A(t), the elements of which are a function of t. The objective is to find the derivative of A- 1 (t). Let B(t) = A- 1 (t). It follows that A(t)B(t) = I. (A.1) Differentiating both sides of Equation A.1 via the chain rule results in dA(t t) dB (t) 00. dt = dt )tB(t) +A (A.2) Solving Equation A.2 for dB(t)/dt yields dB(t) dA- 1 (t) dt dt --A-'(t)dAt Ad (t) 89 (A.3) A.2 Derivatives of Noise Parameters Several of the Kalman Filter equations have difficult partial derivatives with respect to noise parameters. The partial derivatives of the state estimate and error covariance update equations are derived. The derivatives are presented for generic noise parameters and then specialized into process and measurement noise parameters. Substituting the Kalman Gain equation, Equation (3.39), into the error covariance update equation, Equation (3.42), yields the expanded form of the equation, so that Rk)-1 HkP-. P+ = P - PI7HT(HkP7 HIk+ (A.4) Differentiating both sides of Equation (A.4) with respect to a noise parameter ca yields P+ k__ ap-k _Pap-T1kH(HkP HT+R ) _ + P H ( HkP HkT+ 7 HkP~ H Rk)- - PjHk (HkPJHkT+R) Hk Hk + Oaa (H P H+ Rk) HkP~- (A.5) . Using the definition of the Kalman Gain, Equation (3.39), Equation (A.5) simplifies to aP+ _p_- _ __ &ac 0ai p- HPK~ Kk kH ±+ (H ai c H + OPR KT-KHa k ,a)a" &ao (A.6) For a process noise parameter, the partial derivative of the measurement noise covariance is zero, and Equation (A.6) simplifies again to S= (I- KkHk) O (I - KkHkj). (A.7) For a measurement noise parameter, Equation (A.6) simplifies to aaj =(I -- KH ) a aaj 90 k The expanded form of the state estimate update equation, Equation (3.40), is H (HkP Hk k H+ - + Rk)-k - P 1 Hz (HkPi H + Rk) Hki. (A.9) Differentiating both sides of Equation (A.9) with respect to a process noise parameter ac yields = + a i (HkPI Hi+ Rk)' ik a~azij H'ka - -' PC Hz (HkPHkT+ Rk) - azi H (HTPIH[ I + Rk 6P (H<H Hk + 2Zk (HkP Hkj+ Rk) -Zk Hk HkT + a~ + PIHkT(HkPJ HZ'+ Rk)-( Hk - PPHkT(HkP gHkT+ H Rk) 1 Hk (HkPI7HT+ Rk)- Hkx(A. 10) . Using the definition of the Kalman Gain, Equation (A. 10) simplifies to a= + - 5 HS 1k - Kk aHZSIc 1Hk - + Kk ( H Hk H a + aR aRk + -ja-) I Hkll - KkHk O. (A.11) For a process noise parameter, the partial derivative of the measurement noise covariance is zero. Equation (A.11) simplifies to (a a=(I-K SaKkHk) + aPj HTar S (A.12) -k.) For a measurement noise parameter, Equation (A.11) simplifies to -k - ai (I-KkHk) Ka + aPHTS1) ai 91 Ka RkS -K a k 1 - . (A.13) [This page intentionally left blank.] Appendix B Inertial Measurement Unit System Model The inertial measurement unit consists of four gimbals supporting a gyro-stabilized platform. The system uses 2 two-degree-of-freedom gyros for stabilization. Velocity is sensed by three pendulous integrating gyroscopic accelerometers. The inertial measurement unit system model consists of four main error models. The gyro model error model is presented in Section B.1. The basic accelerometer error model appears in Section B.2. A PIGA error model, containing error states specific to the PIGAs can be found in Section B.3. The misalignment error model of the accelerometers is located in Section B.4. In addition, the centrifuge error model used in centrifuge testing is given in Section B.5. The system state error dynamics can be written as a system of first order differential equations, so that ES F 3 j 0 ES TJLX +[ qO . (B.1) Lqij ES is the system state error vector and x is the error state vector. The system state error vector is made up of the position error vector ER (ft), the velocity error vector EV (ft/s), and the platform attitude correction vector 36 (arcsec). The system state error vector is, 93 therefore, EV (B.2) ER eS= 60 The error state vector, x, defines the individual error states. For centrifuge testing, the system navigation error dynamics matrix, F is given by E5 = FeS + Ex + qO, (B.3) where 0 0 -(aix) F= I 0 0 0 0 0 .(B.4) The error states couple into the system dynamics through the B matrix. The configuration of this matrix depends on the individual error states and will be defined further in the sequel. The error state dynamics matrix, T is used to define the error state differential equation, expressed as x=I Tx + qi. (B.5) q, is an error state driving vector. Both q, and T depend on the individual states. B.1 Gyroscope Error Model The gyro error model consists of three basic error types. These errors are defined in terms of their effect on the gyro drift rate, wU, wv, and ww (arcsec/s), along the gyro U, V, and W axes. Figure 4-1 shows these axes in relation to the accelerometer axes. Accelerationinsensitive drift errors, denoted by BD_, are called bias errors. Throughout this appendix, an underscore in a state name indicates that the state occurs for all of the instrument axes. In the case of the bias errors, the states are BDU, BDV, and BDW. Mass unbalance and spring restraint errors for loading along the spin axis form the acceleration-sensitive 94 errors, AD_. Compliance errors, AAD_, are acceleration-squared-senrsitiveerrors. The complete gyro error model is, therefore, WU WV WWJ =k 1 BDU ADUI BDV + kik2 ADVS A DUS ADUQ au AL VWI ADVWQI av ADVWI aw_ ADWS -AL VWQ BDWJ AADUSS AADUQQ aU + kik [AADVSS AADVWII AADVQQ AADWSS AADWQQ AADVWII a~V a2 AADUII AADUIQ kik[ AADVWSQ AADUSQ AADUSI auaw AADVWI Q AADVWSIj avaw -AADVWI Q -AADVWSQ AADVWSI (B.6) auav_ au, av, and aw (ft/s 2) are the nongravitational specific forces applied along the gyro U, are conversion factors. Note that several V, and W axes. k (arcsec/s and k2 (-) terms in Equation B.6 occur twice due to perfect correlations, so that ADVI = ADWI = ADVWI ADVQ -ADWQ = ADVWQ ADVII = ADWII = ADVWII ADVSI = ADWSI = ADVWSI ADVSQ -ADWSQ = ADVWSQ -ADWIQ = ADVWIQ. ADVIQ B.2 = Accelerometer Error Model The accelerometers used in the IMU are pendulous integrating gyroscopic (PIGA) accelerometers. The accelerometer error model consists of five basic error types. The errors are defined in terms of the residual accelerometer-related errors for the accelerometer axes, 6ax, 6ay, and 6az (ft/sec2 ). The errors are expressed in the X, Y, and Z accelerometer 95 axes. These axes are shown in Figure 4-1. Non-excitation sensitive torques, e.g., flex-lead torques, and excitation sensitive torques, e.g., magnetic field leakage torques, form the bias errors, AB_. Acceleration-sensitive scale-factor errors, SFE_, are caused by variations in PIG angular momentum and pendulosity between instruments. Acceleration-squaredsensitive terms are made up of PIGA anisoinertia, FIL_, PIGA T-shaft compliance, FX1_, and float motion error, FIX_, caused by finite suspension stiffness of the PIGA float. The accelerometer model is [ax ABX SFEX 0 0 ax Say = k3 ABY + k4 0 SFEY 0 ay 6az ABZ 0 0 SFEZ az FIIX + k2k4 FY FX1Z FIXX + A2 0 L 0 FXIX FX1X F2 FY FX1Y 12 FX1Z FX1Z ax ay 0 FIXY 1+Ba0 A 0 J 0 ax(a2 + a)1 0 ay (a2 + a ) FIXZ (B.7) az(a2 + a2 ) ax, ay, and az (ft/s 2 ) are the nongravitational specific forces applied along the accelerometer X, Y, and Z axes. A and B (ft/s 2 )- 2 are PIGA FIX constants. k3 (L/) and k4 (1/ppm) are conversion factors. B.3 PIGA Error Model The error terms presented in Section B.2 are generic accelerometer errors. The system model also contains terms specific to the PIGAs. AMSI - Coning angle sensitivity about the spin axis The AMSI states are static PIGA offset coning angles about the spin axes. The errors in indicated acceleration are proportional to the product of the coning angle and the sensed 96 acceleration along the output axis of the PIGA. AMOI - Coning angle sensitivity about the output axis The AMOK states are static PIGA offset coning angles about the output axes. The errors in indicated acceleration are proportional to the product of the coning angle and the sensed acceleration along the spin axis of the PIGA. FPO - Pendulous and output axis non-orthogonality The misalignment of the pendulous axis of the PIGA relative to the case may be separated into two components. The FPO_ states are the sensitivity of the output axis components to a misalignment of the pendulous axis. DIS and DOS - Input and output axis compliance coefficients The DIS and DOS terms model the acceleration-squared drift sensitivity of the PIGA gyroscope. They are very similar to the second order drifts AADSI and AADSQ in the accelerometer model. BRSI and BROI - Input and output axis bearing runout sensitivity The PIG input axes rotate and precess around the PIGA input axes due to misalignments between them. The BRSI and BROI terms model the effect of the bearing runout on the sensed accleration error. CHI - Viscous Torque about output axis The CHI terms model the viscous torque about the output axis of the PIGA. They are a combination of the torque resulting from angular velocity of the float relative to the PIGA case and the float cocking angular velocity. 97 Resolver Harmonics The PIGA measures the velocity through the Servo Driven Member (SDM) angle. The SDM angle is read a one speed resolvers and an eight speed resolver. Any error in either of the resolvers causes a harmonic error. This error is periodic with modulo 2wr. The model contains error states for the 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 15, 16, and 32 speed harmonics. These states contain both the SIN and COS terms of the harmonics. B.4 Misalignment Error Model The acceleration-sensitive nonorthogonality error is the misalignment of the PIGA Input Axes (IAs) relative to the X, Y, and Z axes. The X, Y, and Z axes form an orthogonal coordinate system established at the time of calibration. This error is not a calibration error, rather it is a combination of mechanical and electronic misalignments of the lAs since the time of calibration. The error is modeled as three independent Gaussian random variables. Sax Say Saz = k5 0 0 0 ax -MYXN 0 0 ay -MZYN 0 az -MZXN (B.8) ax, ay, and az (ft/sec2 ) are the nongravitational specific forces applied along the accelerometer X, Y, and Z axes. k5 (rad/arcsec) is a conversion factor. Sax, Say, and Saz (ft/sec2 ) are the residual accelerometer-related errors for the accelerometer axes. The acceleration-sensitive platform compliance terms, D*, are also modeled. These are the result of the deformation of the IMU base due to acceleration. B.5 Centrifuge Error Model The centrifuge arm is shown in Figure B-1. The error model of the centrifuge consists of two basic error types. Lever arm errors result from errors in the location of the IMU on the centrifuge arm. Target bias errors are errors in the location of the target. 98 Rotational Axis Sensors iMU Targets Wall rgc r3 r2 Side View Center of Navigation iMU 8 inches 6 feet Front View Figure B-1: Location of IMU on centrifuge arm A Counter Clockwise Rotation Z U W N ,/' c X - Y Centrifuge Center z CCAF Centrifuge Arm Figure B-2: Centrifuge Centered Earth Fixed and Centrifuge Centered Arm Fixed coordinate frames B.5.1 Lever Arm Errors The centrifuge arm is assumed to be a rigid body during a centrifuge test. Static lever arm errors, denoted by CSLVARM_, are the result of errors in the placement of the IMU on the centrifuge arm. More specifically, they are the result of errors in the displacement between the center of navigation of the IMU and the proximity sensor on the tip of the arm. This displacement is defined as the vector r 3 in the centrifuge centered arm fixed (CCAF) coordinate frame, and is time invariant. The CCAF frame is shown in Figure 99 Z Vertical Proximity Sensor Horizontal Proximity Sensor CCAF Y X Center of ~~ Navigation C Horizontal Proximity Sensor Centerline IM /I t Ir rr r Target Location in Vertical Plane Side View T Y Target Location in Horizontal Plane Direction of Arm Motion fCCAF Z ILA X Horizontal Proximity Sensor (Leading Edge of Notch) b ar- a Vhie Top View Figure B-3: Geometry of IMU on centrifuge arm 100 B-2. r 3 is shown in Figure B-3. The position error in the gyro frame is given by ER(t) = TCGCAFt 3. (B.9) The CCAF to G transformation is a time dependent function of the centrifuge arm position, so that EV(t) dTG r. AF)3 = =ER dt -LCF~)r (B.10) The static lever arms are time invariant, so it follows that + = 0. (B.11) The B matrix for CSLVARM is given by [ TCGC AF 0 1 (B.12) 0J For this error model, qO, qi, and T are given by qO = q = 0 (B.13) T = [0]. (B.14) The IMU is mounted to the centrifuge via a set of shock mounts. These shock mounts deform under the centrifugal acceleration of the centrifuge. The deformation is modeling as occurring solely in the X axis of the CCAF frame. The SHOCKMT state models the error in the displacement of the shock mounts. 101 B.5.2 Centrifuge Target Bias Errors The centrifuge target bias states account for errors in the position of the targets. They are measured in inches in the CCEF frame. The bias state for target i is ERbi (B.15) ERbzi The target biases create a measurement error, given by 6z,70 H(t)ER , where H(t) 12~ 102 CTUt) CCEF (B.16) Appendix C Removed Model State Listings C.A Model 2 The following states are missing from Model 2: SINO1HX SINOIHY SIN01HZ COSO1HX COSO1HY COS01HZ SINO2HX SINO2HY SIN02HZ COS02HX COS02HY COSO2HZ SIN07HX SIN07HY SIN07HZ COS07HX COS07HY COS07HZ SIN08HX SIN08HY SIN08HZ COS08HX COS08HY COS08HZ SIN09HX SIN09HY SIN09HZ COSO9HX COSO9HY COSO9HZ SIN15HX SIN15HY SIN15HZ COS15HX COS15HY COS15HZ SIN16HX SIN16HY SIN16HZ COS16HX COS16HY COS16HZ SIN32HX SIN32HY SIN32HZ COS32HX COS32HY COS32HZ 103 C.2 Model 3 The following states are missing from Model 3: AMOIX AMOIY AMOIZ C.3 CHIX CHIY CHIZ FPOX FPOY FPOZ Model 4 In addition to the states removed in Models 2 and 3, the following states are removed from Model 4: AMSIX AMSIY AMSIZ FPOX FPOY FPOZ DISX DISY DISZ DOSX DOSY DOSZ BROIX BROIY BROIZ BRSIX BRSIY BRSIZ CSLVARMX CSLVARMY SHOCKMT C.4 Model 5 In addition to the states removed in Models 2, 3, and 4, the following states are removed from Model 5: CTOPOSBX CTOPOSBY CTOPOSBZ CT1POSBX CT1POSBY CT1POSBZ CT2POSBX CT2POSBY CT2POSBZ CT3POSBX CT3POSBY CT3POSBZ CT4POSBX CT4POSBY CT4POSBZ CT5POSBX CT5POSBY CT5POSBZ CT6POSBX CT6POSBY CT6POSBZ 104 Bibliography [1] IEEE STD 517-1974. 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