Sovereign wealth funds: managing windfall revenues by

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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT

MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES

AND DEVELOPMENT

9-10 April 2014

Sovereign wealth funds: managing windfall revenues

by

Mr. Sven Behrendt

Managing Director of GeoEconomica

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of

UNCTAD.

UNCTAD

Multi-Year Expert Meeting on

Commodities and Development

Sovereign wealth funds: managing windfall revenues

Sven Behrendt

Sources: Sources used for the entire presentation include most recent annual reports, legal documents, and GeoEconomica proprietary data.

Sovereign wealth funds: what are they?

Formal definition

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are special purpose investment funds or arrangements, owned by general government.

SWFs hold, manage, or administer assets to achieve financial objectives, and employ a set of investment strategies which include investing in foreign financial assets.

SWFs are commonly established out of balance of payments surpluses, official foreign currency operations, the proceeds of privatization, fiscal surplus, and/or receipts resulting from commodity exports.

2

Global SWFs: assets under management

3,5

3

2,5

2

1,5

1

0,5

0

4

SWFs: Assets under management 2000-2014 in US$ trillion

2000 2007 2014

The world’s largest SWFs

The world’s commodity based SWFs

Government Pension Fund Global (Norway): select data

GPFG asset growth 2001-2012

(in NK billion)

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

GPFG assets under management as percent of Norway‘s GDP

180,0%

160,0%

140,0%

120,0%

100,0%

80,0%

60,0%

40,0%

20,0%

0,0%

GPFG: asset allocation 2013

1%

37%

62% equities fixed income real estate

0

-10

-20

-30

20

10

GPFG: returns 2008-2012

30

State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan: select data

GPFG asset asset growth: 2001-2012

(in USD million)

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

SOFAZ: Asset allocation 2012

1%

2%

2% public equities fixed income real estate gold

94%

50

40

30

20

10

0

SOFAZ's assets as share of Azerbaijan's

GDP (in percent)

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

4

3

2

1

0

Investment portfolio: rate of return 2006-

2012 (in percent)

5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chile’s Economic and Social Stabilization Fund (ESSF) and Pension Reserve Fund (PRF)

ESSF/PRF market value (US$ millions) and global copper prices 2006-2012

25000

ESSF

20000 PRF

15000

10000

5000

0

Copper: US$ per Metric

Ton

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

ESSF and PRF assets as share of Chile's

GDP (in percent)

30

25

20

5

0

15

10

2006 207 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ESSF asset allocation 2012

30%

3%

67% sovereign bonds inflation indexed sovereign bonds money market

PRF asset allocation 2012

20%

16%

46%

18% sovereign and government related bonds inflation indexed sovereign bonds corporate bonds equities

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

ESSF/PRF net annual return 2007-2012

(in percent)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

PRF

2012

ESSF

Financial transparency

and corporate governance indicators (1/2)

Size of assets under management How much money is stored in a fund?

Funding arrangements Where does the money come from?

Where does the money go to once it leaves the fund? Withdrawal arrangements

Investment policies How are monies invested?

Performance benchmarks How successfully are monies invested?

9

Financial transparency and

corporate governance

indicators (2/2)

Legal foundation Does the fund have a proper legal foundation?

Objective Is the objective of the fund clearly defined?

Role of the owner

Capable supervisory bodies

Independent operational management

Proper auditing

Does government disclose performance expectations?

Has the supervisory body the capacity and mandate to set investment strategies and supervise operational management?

Does the operational management implement investment policies without government intervention?

Is the fund properly audited?

10

SWFs: Managing windfall revenues towards a structural transformation.

Key lessons

GeoEconomica

Contact: 4, Air Park • Chemin des Papillons

1216 Cointrin/Geneva (CH)

Telephone: +41 (0) 22 341 4778 sven.behrendt@geoeconomica.com

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