UNCTAD
Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities
and Development 2013
Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy
options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable development
Room XXVI
Palais des Nations
Geneva, Switzerland
Current Situation of China’s Nonferrous Metals Industry and
Development Trend
by
Mr. Zhongkui Wang
Vice General Manager
Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.
20 MARCH 2013
This material has been reproduced in the language and form as it was provided. The views expressed are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
UNCTAD Multi-year Expert Meeting on
COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT
Geneva, Swiss, March 20, 2013
Current Situation of China’s Nonferrous
Metals Industry and Development Trend
Wang Zhongkui
Vice General Manager
Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.
Disclaimer & Copyright
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Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter Antaike)
makes no warranty of any kind in regard to the contents and shall not
be liable for incidental or consequential damages, financial or
otherwise, arising out of the use of this document.
Copyright
The contents of this presentation are copyright Antaike
©
2013 Antaike
2
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
 Characteristics of China's nonferrous metals Industry and the role
in the global market;
 China's nonferrous metals output and consumption maintains fast
growth;
 China's nonferrous metals foreign trade has increased rapidly and
the trade deficit has enlarged;
 Supply shortage of raw materials being worsened; highly
depending on imported raw materials; weak competitiveness of
the domestic nonferrous metals enterprises;
 Production technology and equipments have reached the
international advanced level;
3
Current Situation Of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
1. Characteristics of China's nonferrous metals industry and the role in the global
market :
 China has been the world’s biggest producer and consumer of nonferrous metals. Both
the output and consumption account s for 40% of the global total. The change in China’s
nonferrous metals output and consumption has great impact on the global market.;
 China’s nonferrous metals market has been in line with the international market for
many years. Copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other nonferrous metals have been the key
trading products on the domestic metal exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange
(SHFE) nonferrous metals futures prices have been closely following the LME prices.
 There is a high correlation between China’s nonferrous metals consumption and the
national economic development. The growth of China’s nonferrous metals consumption
has been faster than that of the GDP, indicating that China is still a developing country.
 The expansion in nonferrous metals smelting and refining capacity has been faster than
the mining capacity, causing a continuous decrease in self-sufficiency of the raw materials
and a continuous increase in import of the raw materials.
 The industrial distribution is being gradually shifted to littoral and west regions, from the
old production bases that are close to the raw materials supply places.
4
Current Situation of China‘s Nonferrous Metals Industry
2. The role of China's nonferrous metals industry in the world
Unit: kt
2012
The world
2012
China
Proportion
%
China’s
ranking
Output：Cu
20,087
5,824
30.0
1
Al
48,040
22,300
46.4
1
Pb
10,631
4,660
43.8
1
Zn
12,461
4,630
37.0
1
Consumption：Cu
19,700
7,680
39.0
1
Al
47,550
21,850
46.0
1
Pb
10,435
4.510
43.2
1
Zn
12,503
5,400
43.2
1
Refined Metal
5
Current Situation of China‘s Nonferrous Metals Industry
3. China's nonferrous metals output maintains fast growth
China’s output of ten kinds of nonferrous metals grew at an average rate of
13.8% in 2000-2012. Of which, the average growth rate was 14.9% in 2000-2010.
In 2002, China’s output of nonferrous metals exceeded 10.00 Mt, ranking first in
the world. At present, China’s output of nonferrous metals represents 40% of the
world’s total.
6
Current Situation of China‘s Nonferrous Metals Industry
Production of refined Cu, aluminum, lead and zinc, kt
25,000
Cu
20,000
Al
Pb
Zn
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China’s output of refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead and refined zinc
respectively grew at an average rate of 12.8%, 17.3%, 12.8% and 18.8% in 20002012.
7
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
4. China‘s nonferrous metals consumption significantly faster than the
world’s average level
Unit: kt
25000
20000
Refined copper cons. China Vs the World
China
the world
15000
10000
5000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China’s consumption of refined copper grew at an average rate of 12.5% in
2000-2012. Meanwhile, the average annual growth rate was 2.2% in the world.
8
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Comparison of refined copper consumption in China and USA
Electronics and
communication 6%
Buildings
8%
Others
1%
Electric
power
47%
Electric
power and
electronics
25%
Transport
12%
Transport
16%
Buildings
43%
Light
Industry
22%
China
Consumer
goods and
other
articles of
everyday…
Industrial
machinery
and
equipment
11%
USA
9
Current Situation Of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
50,000
Primary aluminum consumption
structure in China
Primary aluminum cons.
China Vs the world, kt
The world
40,000
China
30,000
Packaging
4%
Electric power
15%
20,000
10,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Others
8%
Buildings 40%
Mechanical
equipment 6%
Durable goods
12%
Transport
15%
China’s consumption of primary aluminum grew at an
average rate of 16.7% in 2000-2012. Meanwhile, the
average annual growth rate was 5.3% in the world.
10
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
12,000
Refined lead consumption
structure in China
Refined lead cons. China Vs the world, kt
The world
10,000
China
8,000
Solder
Chemical 2%
6,000
4,000
Others
5.50%
engineering
12.5%
2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China’s consumption of refined lead grew at an
average rate of 12.6% in 2006-2012. Meanwhile,
the average growth rate was 4.0% in the world.
Battery 80%
11
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
14,000
12,000
Refined zinc consumption
structure in China
Refined zinc cons.
The world
China Vs the world, kt
China
Battery
3.70%
Brass
14.30%
10,000
8,000
6,000
Zinc
oxide
8.20%
Others
0.60%
4,000
2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China’s consumption of refined zinc grew at an
average rate of 9.3% in 2006-2012. Meanwhile, the
average growth rate was 2.15% in the world.
Die casting
alloys 25.2%
Galvanizing
48%
12
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
5. China's nonferrous metals foreign trade value has increased
rapidly and the trade deficit has enlarged
180
160
Import & export value of nonferrous metals,
bln USD
140
120
Import&export value
100
Import value
80
Export value
60
Def icit
40
20
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China’s nonferrous metals foreign trade value grew at an average rate of
22.7% in 2000-2012. Of which, the growth of import value was 22.6%; export
value, 23%. The foreign trade deficit enlarged to USD63.4 billion in 2012 from
USD5.7 billion in 2000.
13
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
6. The copper smelting capacity expansion exceeds mining capacity
7'000
kt
Cu-in-concentrates
6'000
Cu blister
Refined Cu
2600
5'000
4'000
3'000
1620
2'000
1'000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China’s output of copper-in-concentrates, copper blister and copper cathode
respectively grew at an average rate of 8.9%, 10.4% and 12.5% in 2000-2012.
The gap between the copper blister output and copper-in-concentrates enlarged
to 1.62 Mt in 2012 from 390 kt in 2000. The self-sufficiency of copper raw
materials decreased to 43.8% in 2012 from 58.5% in 2000. China’s copper
industry is increasingly relying on imported raw materials.
14
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Self-sufficiency rate of copper
concentrates %
Imported copper concentrates
Unit: kt
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
The proportion of home-made copper concentrates in the domestic copper
smelting enterprises gradually decreased in 2000-2012, with the lowest level of
35.7% seen in 2005. And then, the proportion ranged in 38%-43% over the past
few years. China’s import of copper concentrates (physical weight) grew at an
average rate of 12.9% in 2000-2012. The import approached to Mt in 2012, with
copper metal contained exceeding 2.00 Mt.
Source: Antaike
15
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
8000
7000
6000
Import of bauxite and alumina, kt
Alumina - L
50000
45000
40000
Bauxite - R
35000
5000
30000
4000
25000
3000
20000
15000
2000
10000
1000
China’s import of aluminum
raw materials is increasing.
The decrease in the
alumina import has been
replaced by the increase in
the bauxite import.
5000
0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Import and export of aluminum ingot, kt
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
Import
600
Export
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
16
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
China’s import of lead-zinc concentrates has increased year by year.
3,500
3,000
2,500
Import of lead conc. and zinc conc., kt
Lead conc.
Zinc conc.
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China’s import of lead concentrates (physical weight) grew at an average rate of
15.9% in 2000-2012 and the zinc concentrates grew at 30.7%.
17
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
600
Import and export of refined lead, kt
China exported large
amount of refined
lead in the past. But
now the production
mainly aims at
meeting the
domestic demand.
500
400
Import
Export
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
800
Import and export of refined zinc, kt
700
China was a big net
exporter of refined zinc
in the past but now
turned to be a net
importer.
600
Import
Export
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
18
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
7.There is a high correlation between China’s nonferrous metals
consumption and the national economic development.
Chinese GDP growth
600000
15
GDP trillion RMB - L
500000
14.2
GDP Growth % - R
14
13
12.7
12
400000
11
10.0 10.1
300000
200000
8
8.0
10.4
10.4
9.6
9.2
10
9.3
9
7.88
7.3
100000
7
6
0
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
19
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
The correlation between China’s copper consumption and the GDP
Cu  279.636987  0.01867327  GDP
China’s copper consumption
China’s GDP
There is a
high
correlation
between
China’s
copper
consumption
and the GDP.
The simple
correlation
coefficient is
0.9938.
20
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
8. Production technology of China’s nonferrous metals industry
and facility reached the international advanced level
 Copper: China has adopted the international advanced copper smelting technology.
By continued improvement, China has mastered the smelting technology with
independent property right. China has become the showing stage for the global
copper smelting technology and facility. All the domestic large-sized copper smelting
enterprises have employed the advanced technology, accounting for over 90% of
the total in China’s copper industry.
 Aluminum: all the outdated Soderberg capacity have been eliminated. Most of the
domestic aluminum smelters have adopted the high-ampere pre-baked aluminum
reduction cells and the AC consumption has dropped to below 14,000kwh/tonne Al,
reaching the international advanced level.
 Lead and zinc: the domestic lead and zinc enterprises have eliminated the backward
sintering pots and adopted the advanced wet-method and pyrometallurgical process.
21
Development Trend of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
 There is room for the output and consumption to grow but the growth
will largely slow down;
 Import of the raw materials will keep on rising. Meanwhile, the metal
import will be stable and even decrease;
 The industrial structure and distribution will be more rational;
 More attentions will be paid to recycling of the secondary metal and the
proportion of secondary metal output will increase;
 With more investments being put into environmental protection projects,
the production cost of Chinese nonferrous metals enterprises will
increase.
22
Development Trend of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Unit: kt
Cu smelting capacity
Cu refining capacity
Cu blister output
Refined Cu output
Utilization rate of Cu smelting capacity %
12'000
10'000
74
72
70
8'000
68
6'000
66
64
4'000
62
2'000
60
0
58
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Antaike
23
Development Trend of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Forecast on China’s demand for nonferrous metals
Unit: kt
2020
2012-2020
Average annual growth
%
2012
2015
2012-2015
Average annual
growth %
7,860
9,220
5.4
11,150
4.4
19,700
21,550
3.0
24,040
2.5
Primary China
aluminu
The world
m
21,850
29,000
9.9
33,570
5.5
47,550
56,760
6.0
61,150
3.2
Refined China
lead
4,510
5,350
5.8
5，600
2.72
4.55
11,400
1.11
Refined China
Cu The world
The world
10,435
Refined China
zinc The world
5,400
6,580
6.8
7,170
3.6
12,500
14,520
5.1
-
-
10,910
Source: Antaike
24
Antaike Events in 2013
No.
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2
3
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6
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13
Events
China Nonferrous Metals Mining Forum
International Magnesium Conference
China International Aluminum Fabrication Forum
China Metal Seminar Hong Kong
China International Silicon Conference
China International Silver Conference
China Metal Seminar London
China International Copper Conference
China International Lead & Zinc Conference
China International Tungsten & Molybdenum Conference
China International Nickel & Cobalt Conference
China Aluminum Forum
China International Copper Fabrication Forum
Time
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Sept.
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Nov.
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Location
Beijing
Xi'an, Shaanxi
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TBC
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26