College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Quarterly Updates and Estimates
Volume 5, Number 4, April 2007
Fred Crowley - Senior Economist
Update on the El Paso County Economy
The Business Conditions Index (BCI)1 bottomed out in July 2006, one month after the Federal Reserve Open
Market Committee’s last interest rate hike. The Forum expected a slow recovery in the second half of 2006 and
into the first half of 2007. As of February 2007, the BCI is about 5 percent higher than July 2006. Despite this
apparent good news, three concerns exist. They are:
Fig. 1: Business Conditions Index
El Paso County (March 2001 = 100)
115
Business Conditions Index
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Business Conditions Index
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
3 Month Moving Average
1
The Business Conditions Index (BCI) is a geometric index of ten seasonally adjusted data series. The El Paso County data are
single family and town home permits, new car sales, employment rate, foreclosures, ES202 employment and ES202 wages and
salaries. Colorado Springs data are sales and use tax collections and airport enplanements. Two non-regional sources are Creighton University’s Purchasing Managers Index for Colorado and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment. The BCI is indexed to March 2001 = 100. All raw series are seasonally adjusted by UCCS Southern Colorado Economic Forum using the Department of Commerce X12 adjustment process.
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
1
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Table 1: Business Conditions Index Components - All Values Indexed to Mar 2001 = 100
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
M ar-06
Apr-06
M ay-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Colorado
S prings
COS
El Paso
U Of
El Paso 2% S ales
Enplane- S F & TH Mich Con Creighton Employ& Use
ments
Permits
S ent
CO PMI ment Rate
Tax
91.26
131.48
90.74
136.30
98.41
100.52
87.26
101.83
82.00
115.00
98.49
102.78
88.59
100.00
95.73
157.73
98.61
102.45
91.38
96.69
95.16
165.00
98.75
104.96
90.69
90.59
95.92
195.90
98.85
107.35
89.65
79.27
96.09
143.84
98.86
105.14
91.06
81.60
90.40
140.98
98.79
106.39
88.91
69.68
90.33
144.79
98.75
106.18
80.64
64.39
91.28
157.92
98.69
104.79
86.58
58.84
90.52
158.66
98.69
108.24
89.03
68.34
96.41
155.14
98.89
103.30
86.05
49.53
107.38
138.53
98.94
101.44
94.29
48.57
102.58
139.53
98.99
99.56
77.58
47.22
100.18
117.55
99.02
99.95
85.30
55.83
101.48
158.98
98.79
99.22
81.33
43.99
99.97
127.73
99.09
104.83
El Paso
Car
S ales
75.00
84.00
78.19
83.39
91.94
77.83
106.28
86.39
66.31
83.32
79.73
81.85
82.14
76.57
88.10
93.59
El Paso
ForeEl Paso El Paso
closures Employed Income
131.25
105.04
99.49
94.79
104.98
99.96
80.21
107.84
100.74
72.92
108.77
101.30
72.92
109.54
102.13
87.50
109.70
100.16
51.04
109.71
100.77
65.63
109.58
100.39
65.63
109.27
99.07
65.63
109.29
98.42
94.79
109.73
97.88
116.67
109.57
96.53
116.67
110.27
96.78
138.54
110.42
97.24
123.96
109.99
98.25
123.96
110.85
98.71
BCI
104.21
96.62
99.18
99.63
102.08
97.34
94.97
93.85
90.40
92.52
97.22
95.68
95.94
93.05
98.83
95.06
6.23%
13.93%
12.33%
12.24%
0.00%
6.25%
88.89%
70.00%
-3.81%
-0.92%
2.74%
-4.59%
February 2007 Compared to:
Jan-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
Feb-06
-4.65%
-13.74%
-6.07%
-11.00%
-21.21%
-9.43%
-25.24%
-54.50%
-1.49%
-2.55%
10.44%
5.05%
-19.65%
-8.46%
-19.49%
-22.59%
0.31%
0.10%
0.41%
0.35%
5.65%
5.29%
-3.15%
-0.13%
0.79%
0.53%
1.43%
1.92%
0.47%
1.99%
0.29%
-2.56%
1. The Colorado Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is up 28 percent.
2. Residential building permits are down 56 percent.
3. Airport enplanements are down 19 percent.
The PMI is generally thought to be a leading indicator. Its strong value suggests the economy will continue to
expand. Residential permits began to show weakness twelve months ago. Had single family permit activity
remained at an annual rate of about 4,800 units, the BCI would have been 105 instead of 95. Permit activity is
expected to improve modestly during the second half of the year for a total of 3,900 units (detached and
attached single family). Airport enplanement activity demonstrated declining activity over the last several
years. Weather issues aside, there does not appear to be any reason to believe a significant improvement can
be expected in the near future. Several new non-stop flights and destination may slow the decline. The main
runway is scheduled to open May 15. This will reduce or eliminate landing weight restrictions on air carriers.
(See page 8 for a detailed discussion about the airport).
Current trends and strengths in the other BCI components suggest an expanding local economy will be the
venue for the balance of 2007. This does not take into consideration any effects from the anticipated arrival of
troops at Fort Carson. It assumes deployment patterns of the existing troops at Fort Carson will remain about
the same. Approximately 1/3 of the troops stationed at Fort Carson are expected to be deployed at any one
time.
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
2
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Analysis of the El Paso County
Residential Housing Market
800
700
Permits Issued
Single family permit activity peaked approximately two years ago. Modest declines began in March 2005. Permit activity declined sharply beginning in March
2006. Currently, permits are running at an
annual rate of about 3,100 units for 2007.
It also appears the decline may have hit a
low point. The confirmation of this trend
will be determined over the next few
months.
Fig. C1: Single Family Permit Trends
in El Paso County
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Seasonally Adjusted Single Family Permits
Mar-06
Mar-07
3 Month Moving Average
Sou rce: Pikes Pe ak Regional Building Departme nt
Prepared by: UC C S S outhe rn C olorado Economic Foru m
Fig. C2: Single Family-Detached
Building Permits in El Paso County
458
421
355
344
342
374
264
Nov
Dec
191
149
188
152
376
219
200
179
482
449
298
300
255
473
449
302
400
346
500
474
600
388
Figure C2 provides additional insights to
single family, detached, permit activity in
El Paso County. The chart shows permit
activity decreased approximately 35 percent in 2006 compared to 2005. The decline in permit became noticeable in April
2006. There was a clear downward trend
by May 2006. It is not clear if the relatively strong growth in March 2007 may
be part of a normal seasonal pattern in
residential construction or if it the advance
of a recovery in the sector.
100
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Monthly Avg: 4/03 to 3/06
Jan
Feb
Mar
Last 12 Months: 4/06-3/07
Sou rce: Pikes Pe ak Regional Building Departme nt
Prepared by: UC C S S outhe rn C olorado Economic Foru m
100
86
34
18
24
30
43
53
59
64
63
35
21
40
33
36
51
60
56
63
72
80
40
33
100
106
120
108
Fig. C3: Single Family-Townhomes
Building Permits in El Paso County
88
Town home permit activity has shown the
same general downward trend that characterized the detached single family construction market over the last 18 months.
Figure C3 indicates town home permit
activity is more volatile than single family, detached permit activity.
20
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Monthly Avg: 4/03 to 3/06
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Last 12 Months: 4/06-3/07
Sou rce: Pikes Pe ak Regional Building Departme nt
Prepared by: UC C S S outhe rn C olorado Economic Foru m
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
3
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Fig. C4: Single Family & Townhomes
Building Permits in El Paso County
558
474
Dec
323
209
Nov
200
224
183
395
416
170
212
282
300
385
438
411
515
535
319
400
311
353
454
500
485
600
536
580
700
476
Figure C4 illustrates permit activity for all
single family, residential construction over
the last twelve months. The most recent
figures indicate the industry is running
42.1 percent behind the same month’s average over the previous three years.
Jan
Fe b
100
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Monthly Avg: 4/03 to 3/06
Mar
Last 12 Months: 4/06-3/07
Sou rce: Pikes Pe ak Regional Building Departme nt
Prepared by: UC C S S outhe rn C olorado Economic Foru m
4,610
4,314
4,014
3,702
3,379
2,972
2,589
2,165
1,704
1,234
0
0
Jul
0
Jun
0
May
0
Apr
0
0
Mar
0
Feb
0
Jan
634
776
370
355
191
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ave rage Cumulative Pe rmits: 2004 - 2006
Actual Permits: 2007
Source: Pikes Pe ak Regional Building De partment
Pre pared by: UC C S S outhe rn Colorado Econ omic Forum
Jan
5,011
4,304
3,462
3,036
Fe b Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Average Cumulative Pe rmits: 2004 - 2006
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
756
1,000
1,426
2,000
2,014
3,000
2,565
4,000
3,936
5,000
4,671
6,000
5,381
Fig. C6: Single Family & Townhome Permits
El Paso County - Year to Date Comparison
869
433
Figure C6 is a year to date comparison of
the current year with year-to-date average
of the previous three years for all single
family permits. Total permits are running
47 percent behind the average for the last
three years. The combination is slightly
better than the detached single family permit year-to-date performance. This indicates the decline in town home activity is
not as deep as detached single family permit activity.
Fig C5: Single Family Detached Permits
in El Paso County - Year to Date Comparison
395
224
An additional insight can be gleaned by
looking at a year to date comparison of the
data for detached, single family permits.
Compared to the average over the last
three years, single family, detached permits are running 48.6 percent behind for
the first three months of the year. The
BCI suggests the local economy will continue growing in 2007. Ignoring any the
Fort Carson effect, the Forum expects single family units to be approximately 3,200
for 2007. This would be about 30 percent
behind the past average for three strong
years. Although fewer than recent years,
this is a respectable number of new builds.
Se p Oct Nov Dec
Actual Pe rmits: 2007
Sou rce: Pikes Pe ak Regional Building Departme nt
Prepared by: UC C S S outhe rn C olorado Economic Foru m
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
4
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
476
345
326
311
278
255
Fe b Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug
Average Cumulative Pe rmits: 2004 - 2006
0
0
0
0
0
0
173
0
148
0
0
126
98
61
72
22
33
12
Jan
Sep Oct Nov Dec
Actual Pe rmits: 2007
Sou rce: Pikes Pe ak Regional Building Departme nt
Prepared by: UC C S S outhe rn C olorado Economic Foru m
975
891
708
669
800
655
673
915
738
840
810
955
903
1,057
888
1,000
1,228
1,198
1,200
1,207
1,211
1,400
1,115
1,264
1,600
1,260
1,355
Fig. P1: Monthly Single Family Home Sales
(Pikes Peak Region)
600
400
200
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Historical Average : 4/03-3/06
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Last Twelve Months : 4/06-3/07
S ou rce: Pi kes Pe ak REALTO R S ervi ces C orp.
Pre pare d by: UCCS S outh ern Col orado Economic Foru m
3,901
Dec
Jan
Feb
5,659
4,109
5,202
5,052
3,787
4,878
5,399
3,659
4,000
3,983
Sep
4,179
Aug
5,750
5,929
4,399
Jun
4,438
5,704
May
4,449
5,000
4,385
6,000
5,985
7,000
6,045
Fig. P2: Active Listings of Homes
(Pikes Peak Region)
4,372
5,260
Figure P2 illustrates the active listings
market in the Pikes Peak region during the
last twelve months, active listings have
been systematically higher than the past
average. This suggest a buyer’s market
and softening of home prices. A softening
home price market has not materialized
nor is it expected, given that the region’s
home price appreciation has lagged national home price appreciation by one
third.
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
968
1,060
Figure P1 indicates the sale of single family homes are highly seasonal. Seasonal
sales peak from March through August.
This is normally associated with a household’s desire to move with the least school
year disruption. A solitary spike also
tends to take place in December. Apparently nominal plus and minus variances
around the past average support the observations that the resale housing market
does not show any signs of weakness. It
also does not show abnormal strength.
The statistics point to a MLS home sales
of approximately 11,500 to 12,500 units in
Fig. C7: Multi-Family Housing Units
in El Paso County - Year to Date Comparison
4,198
4,800
Figure C7 illustrates multi-family housing
unit, year to date permit activity. It is running approximately 38 percent below the
average for the last three years. While this
is better than the permit activity for single
family homes, it should be remembered
that multi-family permit activity for the
last three years has been below average.
Multi-family permit activity is not expected to pick up until vacancy rates are
reliably below 8 percent and rents increase
in real terms. There is a chance this will
happen towards the end of 2007. This assumes the current projected arrival of additional troops at Fort Carson materializes.
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Apr
Jul
Historical Average: 4/03-3/06
Oct
Nov
Mar
Last Twelve Months: 4/06-3/07
S ource : Pik es Peak REALTO R Se rvi ce s C orp.
Pre pared by: UC C S S outhe rn C ol orado Economic Forum
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
5
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
10,486
0
8,453
Jul
0
Jun
0
May
0
5,936
4,589
3,379
Apr
0
Mar
0
Feb
0
Jan
0
0
0
2,000
1,363
1,342
4,000
2,338
2,233
6,000
7,187
10,000
8,000
9,495
12,000
11,346
14,000
12,251
Fig. P3: Year to Date Sales
(Pikes Peak Region)
655
673
Figure P3 compares year-to-date home
sales compared to the expected year-todate sales activity. While year-to-date
sales of single family homes in the region
are the same as the average over the last
three years, current weakness at the national level suggests this trend will
weaken over the next several months.
Housing prices are not expected to decline, should the volume in home sales
decline slightly in the remaining part of
2007.
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
His torical Ave rage: 3/04-12-06
Current Year: 1/07-12/07
S ou rce: Pi ke s Pe ak REALTO R Se rvi ce s Corp.
Pre pare d by: UCCS Sou thern Col orado Econ om ic Foru m
Aug
Se p
Oct
Nov
Dec
233,595
254,809
230,495
263,811
Jul
231,727
255,017
232,423
269,850
Jun
232,529
252,929
235,483
272,232
May
250,394
264,322
238,003
268,289
250,000
238,674
261,239
300,000
229,894
260,588
350,000
227,406
262,181
Fig. P4: Average Sale Price of a Home
(Pikes Peak Region)
220,406
243,936
Figure P4 illustrates the average sale price
of a home in the Pikes Peak region over
the last 12 months compared with the region’s prior 3 years. Despite signs of a
softening housing market, average prices
for homes were consistently higher than
their the respective historical monthly average. On average home prices appear to
be appreciating at slightly less than 6 percent a year in the local market. This is
lower than the national average of about 9
percent for the past five years through
September 2006.
Jan
Feb
Mar
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Apr
Historical Average : 4/03-3/06
Last Twelve Months: 4/06-3/07
S ou rce: Pi ke s Pe ak REALTO R S ervices Corp.
Pre pare d by: UCCS S ou th ern Col orado Economi c Foru m
Fig. P5: Median Sale Price of a Home
(Pikes Peak Region)
Se p
Oct
195,950
208,000
Aug
190,967
214,950
Jul
191,900
209,900
193,918
213,500
Jun
197,550
225,000
193,771
215,000
May
191,268
214,950
195,075
224,900
200,000
199,858
224,500
250,000
200,447
225,000
300,000
192,447
220,000
350,000
184,182
201,950
Figure P5 compares median home price
trends. Median home price analysis is less
likely to be biased by home sale outliers
that might happen in an analysis of average home prices. The data indicate median home prices are also appreciating approximately 6 percent per year. No signs
of a housing bubble appear to be present
in the local market at this time.
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe b
Mar
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Apr
Historical Average: 4/03-3/06
Last Twe lve Months: 4/06-3/07
S ou rce: Pi ke s Pe ak REALTO R S ervices Corp.
Pre pare d by: UCCS S ou th ern Col orado Economi c Foru m
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
6
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Figure P6 shows the ratio of single family
home sales to single family housing units
increased steadily from 2003 until the end
of 2005. This indicates the market for
housing was strong, arguably a seller’s
market. The trend reversed in early 2006.
Days on market increased. New permit
activity slowed throughout 2006. It might
be too soon to argue the soft housing demand trend has bottomed out. The data do
suggest the resale housing market might
be showing signs of strengthening in the
Pikes Peak region.
Fig. P6: Ratio of Home Sales to Housing Units
(Indexed to Mar/Nov 2001 = 100)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Se p-04
Seasonally Adjusted Sales
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
3 per. Mov. Avg. (Seasonally Adjusted Sales)
S ou rce: Pi ke s Pe ak REALTO R Se rvi ce s Corp.
Pre pare d by: UCCS Sou thern Col orado Econ om ic Foru m
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
7
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Colorado Springs Airport Trends
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
Fe b-02
Fe b-03
Fe b-04
Monthly Airport Enplane ments
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
3 Month Moving Ave rage
Source : Col orado Spri ngs Airport
Pre pare d by: UC C S Southe rn C ol orado Economi c Forum
Oct
69,584
63,425
Sep
73,067
69,249
Aug
83,585
72,677
Jul
75,926
80,724
Jun
86,207
82,771
97,734
96,188
80,000
108,443
99,502
79,268
82,520
100,000
95,500
97,773
120,000
87,008
90,969
140,000
82,562
83,295
Fig. A2: Last 12 Months of Enplanements at
Colorado Springs Airport vs Recent Monthly Average
85,669
87,139
There is a strong argument that the
weather in December 2006 and January
2007 contributed to decline in
enplanements at the airport. The area was
hit with significant snow storms on a near
weekly basis during this time. The storms
caused numerous delays and cancellations.
Many travelers are believed to have
cancelled their trips because they could
not get to the airport. February
enplanement data, the most recent
enplanement data for the airport, points to
continued weakness in passenger traffic.
95,000
Monthly Enplanements
Activity at the Colorado Springs Airport
slowed since the last QUE. After
allowing for normal seasonal adjustment
patterns, the airport enplanement activity
appears to have resumed a downward
trend after a slight 1.4 percent decline in
2006. Figure A1 shows the seasonally
adjusted trend in enplanements activity at
the Colorado Springs Airport over the last
five years.
Fig. A1: Enplanement Trends at Colorado Springs
Airport (Seasonally Adjusted)
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
60,000
40,000
20,000
Mar
May
Last 12 Mos: 3/06-2/07
S ource : C ol orado Spri ngs Ai rport
Pre pare d by: UC C S Southe rn C ol orado Economi c Forum
Jan
0
957,878
0
0
804,423
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Normal Cumulative Permits : 1/03-12/06
0
354,293
726,463
0
0
558,644
0
0
0
0
0
400,000
257,260
600,000
461,250
800,000
641,825
1,000,000
884,811
1,200,000
1,027,462
Fig. A3: Colorado Springs Airport Enplanements
Year-to-Date Trends
200,000
Finally, a year-to-date comparisons for
2007 compared with the previous three
year average is shown in Figure A3.
Year-to-date, enplanements are down
Apr
Monthly Avg: Mar 2002 to Fe b 2006
168,189
132,674
Passenger traffic at Denver (DIA) for
December through February were
compared with Colorado Springs.
Compared to the year earlier, DIA was
down 3% in December, up 5.6 percent in
January and up 3.8 percent in February.
DIA passenger traffic was up 9.1 percent
for 2006. Colorado Springs was down 1.4
percent for 2006.
0
86,042
69,249
Enplanements in December, January and
February were well below their respective
monthly averages over the last three years.
This provides some support for the bad
weather hypothesis.
Sep Oct Nov Dec
Actual: 1/07-12/07
Source : Col orado Spri ngs Airport
Pre pare d by: UC C S Southe rn C ol orado Economi c Forum
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
8
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
35,515 (21.1%). Passenger traffic growth at DIA suggests a portion of the decline at Colorado Springs is
weather related.
Part of the decline in enplanements can be attributed to runway construction at the airport that began in
January 2006. Construction is expected to be done in the middle of May. An additional boost in enplanements
is expected from six new daily flights that have an aggregate, daily capacity of 500 passengers. If the
enplanement declines at the Colorado Springs Airport were runway/flight schedule constricted, we should see
a climb in enplanements that would suggest an annualized enplanement of approximately 1,000,000
passengers per year.
There are two other reasons why enplanement activity may have declined at the airport. Southwest Airlines
began to offer service out of DIA last year. This may explain part of DIA’s increase and out decrease in
traffic.
The last reason that may explain enplanement declines is the decline in the region’s market share of occupied
hotel/motel room nights. This has been a clear pattern going back over ten years. Additional tourism
promotion, the development of regional destination packages and additional conference facilities would be
expected to enhance travel at the airport.
Annualized Rate for
National Expectations
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s February 2007 Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates the expectation of a slowdown/recession has subsided
among professional forecasters. Both the
median and average likelihood of a recession over the next four quarters are about
2 percentage points lower than in the November 2006 survey.
Inflation expectations are slightly lower.
The indicators point to the expectation of
an improving economy, especially in the
second half of 2007. This is consistent
with the projections the Forum made at its
10th Annual program in October 2006.
National expectations point to a slightly
stronger national economy over the next
six to twelve months.
10-Year T-Bond Rate
3-M onth T-Bill Rate
AAA Corp Bond Rate
Housing Starts Growth %
Ind Prod Index
Inflation Rate %
Real GDP Growth %
Unemp loyment %
Q1-07
4.8
5.0
4.8
-6.6
112.8
2.4
2.6
4.6
Q2-07
4.8
5.0
4.8
2.5
113.6
2.6
2.7
4.7
Q3-07
4.9
5.0
4.9
1.1
114.5
2.5
3.0
4.7
Q4-07
5.0
4.9
5.0
8.4
115.3
2.4
3.2
4.8
Q1-08
5.0
4.9
5.0
10.6
116.2
2.3
3.1
4.8
Employment Growth in Thousands
Non Ag Employ ment Growth
136.5
136.8
137.2
137.6
139.9
Q1-07
to
Q2-07
Q2-07
to
Q3-07
Q3-07
to
Q4-07
Q4-07
to
Q1-08
M edian likelihood of real GDP decline
over the next four quarters
10.0%
11.3%
15.0%
13.5%
Average likelihood of real GDP decline
over the next four quarters
13.1%
13.8%
14.9%
15.0%
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
9
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Greetings from Tom Zwirlein, Ph.D., Director of the Southern Colorado Economic Forum
We are currently developing the program for the 11th Annual Southern Colorado Economic Forum. The Forum will be
Thursday, October 11 from 7:30 am to 12:00 pm at the Antlers Hilton Hotel. Mark Your Calendars and Save the Day.
The keynote speaker at this year’s Forum will feature, James W. Paulsen, Ph.D., chief investment strategist at Wells
Fargo Capital Management. Dr. Paulson will provide a global and national view of the economy. Fred Crowley,
Ph.D., and I will focus on economic conditions in the southern Colorado region. Several panelists will round out the
main breakfast forum.
From 10:00 am to noon the Forum joins forces with the Holland&Hart Business Symposium. This year we are organizing a set of sessions designed to help your business to better understand the changes taking place in a global market.
The question isn’t whether Colorado Springs and your business will have to compete, but rather how will the city and
your business compete in a global environment.
Attendees can expect to learn about issues the city, your business and your workforce will face in a global market.
One track of sessions will examine what it means to be a “global city” and how does Colorado Springs rank in the
global universe. This track will describe a tradable goods environment and how to develop better international relationships. Participants will hear from a local company about its international experiences and what it takes to succeed
in a tradable good environment. A nationally recognized expert in relocation will explain the characteristics that make
a city more attractive to business when competing in a global environment. Executives from the EDC will explain
their strategies and efforts in attracting more globally prepared companies to the city.
A second track will look into the issues of preparing the workforce for tomorrow’s jobs. Our experts will establish
benchmarks for comparison and report on jobs threatened to be off-shored over the next ten years. Our experts will
identify jobs that are more likely to remain and how we can better prepare a workforce for these jobs. Experts in education, workforce development and immigration will speak about the required education and training that will be
needed as our workforce evolves. How the state and nation deal with immigration issues will dramatically affect the
composition of the workforce of the future. Experts will help sort out these important issues.
Seats for a full morning of sessions, breakfast and the Forum’s annual booklet are $75.00. For $95.00 professionals in
the real estate industry will receive a certificate and earn four continuing education credits. We are not taking registrations for the Forum quite yet, but you can pre-register at our web site today.
www.southerncoloradoeconomicforum.com
Just click on the Registration tab and then click here to pre-register. You will be informed via email when registration
opens later in summer. Don’t delay, pre-register today!
Please give me a call or an email if your company or organization is interested in partnering with the Forum this year.
We have a number of sponsorship levels that make it easy to join this University of Colorado at Colorado Springs,
College of Business – Business Community partnership.
I look forward to seeing you at this year’s Forum.
Tom Zwirlein
719-262-3241
tzwirlei@uccs.edu
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
10
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
Table 2: Selected Economic Indicators
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
Vs Year
Ago
0.43
0.41
0.42
0.38
-0.19
1.50
1.51
1.58
1.69
0.13
Benefit Costs SA 2005=100
100.8
101.5
102.5
103.5
3.90
Compensation Cost s SA 2005=100
100.8
101.6
102.5
103.3
3.80
Retail Sales SA (billions)
976.7
984.5
992.6
990.8
47.79
e-Sales SA (billions)
25.2
26.3
27.5
29.3
7
e-Sales as % of Ret ail Sales SA
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
3.0%
0.5%
GDP Real % Growth (Chained) SA
5.6%
2.6%
2.0%
2.5%
-1.7%
Consumer Debt t o Disposable Inc
14.3%
14.5%
14.5%
14.5%
National Monthly Data
Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06
National Quarterly Data
0.3%
Vs Year
Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct -06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07
Ago
Capacity Ut ilizat ion SA
81.4
81.9
81.7
82.3
82.4
82.4
82.0
81.7
81.3
81.7
81.4
82.0
0.90
Car & Lt T rk Sales Millions SA
16.5
16.6
16.1
16.1
17.1
16.0
16.6
16.1
16.0
16.7
16.7
16.6
0.00
Consumer Sent iment (1966=100) SA
88.9
87.4
79.1
84.9
84.7
82.0
85.4
93.6
92.1
91.7
96.9
91.3
4.60
CPI-U 1982-84=100 SA
199.6
200.8
201.9
202.4
203.2
203.8
202.7
201.8
201.9
202.8
203.2
203.9
2.41%
Federal Funds Rat e (Effect ive)
4.59% 4.79%
4.94%
4.99% 5.24% 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
5.25%
5.24%
5.25% 5.26%
0.01
110.9
110.9
111.9
112.3
112.5
112.2
112.0
111.5
112.4
112.1
113.1
3.76
1.26
1.25
1.26
1.26
1.27
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.28
1.30
na
0.04
6.24%
6.14%
Industrial Production (1997=100) SA 110.0
1.26
Invent ory/Sales Rat io SA
30 Year Convent ial Mt g Rat e NSA
6.32% 6.51%
6.60%
6.68% 6.76% 6.52% 6.40% 6.36%
6.22% 6.29% 0.04%
7.53
7.75
7.93
8.02
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
0.75
Purch Mgr Index SA
55.30
56.90
54.70
54.00
54.40
54.30
52.70
51.50
49.90
51.40
49.30
52.30
-3.80
Retail & Food Svc Sales SA (billions)
358.24 360.58 360.92 359.22 363.97 364.25 361.98 361.98 363.23
367.34 367.31 367.54
11.24
S&P500
1,295
1,295
1,270
1,270
1,270
1,304
1,336
1,336
1,401
1,418
1,418
1,407
T ech Index SA - Mar 2001 = 100)
126.5
119.8
119.7
122.1
124.1
122.1
123.4
116.8
121.7
125.3
117.3
119.4
0.34
T rade Weighted Dollar
85.0
83.9
80.6
81.5
81.9
81.2
81.6
82.4
81.5
80.9
82.4
82.1
-2.98
West T exas Oil Spot Price NSA
62.9
69.7
70.9
71.0
74.4
73.1
63.9
58.9
59.4
62.0
54.6
59.3
Prime Rate NSA
Colorado Data
Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06
-2.37
Vs Year
Ago
Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct -06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07
196.3
Denver-Boulder CP I SA
126.16
199.1
3.37%
84.7
62.2
60.9
62.6
68.3
68.6
67.1
59.9
60.3
50.8
68.7
55.2
-16.11
Labor Force NSA (000's)
2,610
2,630
2,630
2,670
2,668
2,686
2,684
2,684
2,689
2,680
2,648
2,666
53.80
Labor Force SA (000's)
2,610
2,637
2,623
2,630
2,621
2,644
2,647
2,653
2,661
2,650
2,667
2,686
73.97
Employment NSA (000's)
2,489
2,516
2,518
2,546
2,547
2,571
2,576
2,582
2,585
2,577
2,527
2,557
66.08
Employment SA (000's)
2,499
2,524
2,504
2,513
2,497
2,516
2,531
2,535
2,552
2,544
2,558
2,585
84.99
Unemployment Rat e % NSA
4.6%
4.3%
4.3%
4.7%
4.6%
4.3%
4.0%
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
4.6%
4.1%
-0.6%
Unemployment Rat e % SA
4.3%
4.3%
4.5%
4.5%
4.7%
4.8%
4.4%
4.4%
4.1%
4.0%
4.1%
3.8%
92.52
97.22
95.68
95.94
93.05
98.83
95.06
Colorado Purch Mgr Index SA
Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06
-0.5%
Vs Year
Ago
Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct -06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07
Business Condit ions Index SA
102.08
90.40
Colorado Spgs Airport Boardings SA
87,723 86,713 88,081 86,002 78,001 83,752 86,116 83,240 91,207
Colorado Springs Data
97.34
94.97
93.85
-4.57
75,039 82,509 78,671 -9,724
214
186
238
232
219
255
200
191
330
148
267
262
62
New Car Sales SA
2,122
1,797
2,454
1,994
1,531
1,923
1,841
1,890
1,896
1,768
2,034
2,161
236
Sales & Use T ax SA (000's)
10,575 10,357 10,480 10,459 10,322 10,662 10,175 9,992
Foreclosures SA
9,807
9,846
9,774
10,326
-13
Single Family P ermit s SA
430
376
387
331
306
279
324
235
231
224
265
209
-250
Labor Force NSA (000's)
294.0
297.4
300.2
302.7
301.0
301.7
300.7
301.1
301.2
300.8
296.5
298.7
4.7
Employment NSA (000's)
285.3
285.7
285.7
285.4
284.6
284.6
285.8
285.3
287.2
287.6
286.4
288.7
5.4
Unemployment Rat e NSA
3.0%
3.9%
4.8%
5.7%
5.5%
5.7%
5.0%
5.2%
4.7%
4.4%
3.4%
3.4%
-0.3%
Unemployment Rat e SA
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
4.7%
4.5%
4.5%
4.4%
4.4%
4.6%
4.3%
-0.3%
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
11
College of Business and Administration
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway, PO Box 7150, Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
TM
About the Forum
The Southern Colorado Economic Forum (SCEF) is part
of the College of Business outreach to the Colorado
Springs Community. The Forum gathers, analyzes and
disseminates information relevant to the economic health
of the region. Through its efforts, the Forum has gathered
a number of unique data sets. The Forum and its staff are
available for fee-for-service work to analyze business
situations, develop forecasts, conduct and analyze surveys
and develop solutions to other business problems you
may have. Examples of current and prior work include
Small Area Forecast for the Pikes Peak Area Council of
Governments, Colorado Springs Airport Passenger
Survey, exit survey for La-Z-Boy, and a Community
Audit for the Pikes Peak Workforce Center. If you would
like additional information about how the Forum can
assist you, contact Fred Crowley at (719) 262-3531 or email at fcrowley@uccs.edu.
The QUE is available free via an electronic subscription.
If you would like a subscription, send an e-mail to
fcrowley@uccs.edu and have the word SUBSCRIBE as
the subject.
A special thanks to the Forum’s partners for their
continuing financial support.
Platinum Level
Colorado Springs Business Journal
First Business Brokers, LTD.
Holland and Hart
Quality Community Group
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
Wells Fargo
Gold Level
Colorado Springs Utilities
Fittje Brothers Printing
LaPlata Investments, LLC
The Gazette
Silver Level
Ent Federal Credit Union
Penrose-St. Francis Health Services
Phil Long Ford
TelWest Communications LLC
The Patterson Group
Van Gilder Insurance Corporation
Sustaining Level
Quarterly Updates and Estimates is a publication of the
Southern Colorado Economic Forum
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
College of Business and Administration
1420 Austin Bluffs Parkway
P.O. Box 7150
Colorado Springs, CO 80933-7150
Dean: Venkat Reddy, Ph.D.
Faculty Director
Southern Colorado Economic Forum
Professor of Finance
Tom Zwirlein, Ph.D.
Associate Director
Senior Economist
Southern Colorado Economic Forum
Fred Crowley, Ph.D.
Academy Bank
ADD STAFF, Inc.
Air Academy Federal Credit Union
Antlers Hilton Hotel
BiggsKofford Certified Public Accountants
Classic Companies
Colorado Springs Credit Union
Drexel Heritage of Colorado Springs
Hewlett-Packard
Keller Homes
Key Bank
Morgan Stanley
Salzman Real Estate Services, LTD
Sierra Commercial Real Estate
Stewart Title of Colorado Springs
The Mail Room, Inc.
Thomason Design Center
Transit Mix Concrete Company
Vectra Bank
Forum sponsorship is available at a number of levels
and benefits. Contact Tom Zwirlein at (719) 262-3241
or tzwirlei@uccs.edu for information.
© Southern Colorado Economic Forum - Quarterly Updates and Estimates - April 2007
12