MATH 141-501 Section 8.5 & Section 8.6 Lecture Notes Continuous Probability Distributions Recall: We have seen histograms for probability distributions for finite discrete random variables, like the one given below. As we take a large number of different outcomes and observations, it makes sense to “smooth out” the distribution by replacing the jagged rectangles with a smooth curve. This is called a continuous probability distribution. Example: Approximate the discrete histogram below with a continuous probability distribution. 1 Standard Normal Distribution One of the most commonly used continuous probability distributions is the standard normal distribution. The standard normal distribution looks like this: Properties of the Standard Normal Distribution 2 Normal Distributions In general, shape of a normal distribution depends on the mean (center) and standard deviation (spread). Here are some other pictures of normal distributions. For instance, the distribution below has µ = 100 and σ = 10. You can “play” with different normal curves at the applet below: http://www.intmath.com/counting-probability/normal-distribution-graph-interactive.php 3 Properties of Normal Distributions Here is what a normal distribution with mean µ and standard deviation σ looks like. Here are some important properties of a normal distribution. 4 Example - Weight of Squirrels The weight, in pounds, of a certain species of adult squirrel is normally distributed with a mean of 3 pounds and a standard deviation of 0.5 pounds. 1. Let X be continuous probability distribution associated with the weight of this species of squirrel. Sketch the graph of X. 2. Shade the area on the graph which corresponds to P (X ≤ 3.5). 3. Describe “P (X ≤ 3.5)” in words. 4. What is the probability that a randomly selected squirrel has weight greater than 3 pounds? 5 Useful Calculator Commands for Normal Distribution Once we set up a problem involving the normal distribution, we can use the calculator to solve the problem. The commands for this are summarized in the table below. If X is a normal probability distribution with mean µ and standard deviation σ, then Command Mathematics normalcdf(a, b, µ, σ ) P (a ≤ X ≤ b) invNorm(p, µ, σ ) a such that P (x ≤ a) = p 6 Words Probability that X takes a value between a and b Value for p’th percentile Example: The standard normal distribution Z has mean µ = 0 and standard deviation σ = 1. Find the following. 1. P (Z ≤ 0.5) 2. P (Z > 1) 3. P (−1 ≤ Z ≤ 1) 4. P (−1 < Z < 1) 5. The value of a such that P (Z ≤ a) is 0.9. 6. The value of a such that P (Z ≥ a) is 0.9. 7 Example: MarbleCo is interested in producing marbles which always have the same diameter. The company’s statisticians have determined that the marble diameter is normally distributed with a mean of 1.5cm and a standard deviation of 0.01cm. A marble is considered acceptable if its diameter is in the range [1.48, 1.52]. 1. What percentage of the company’s marbles are acceptable? 2. What is the probability that a marble will have a diameter greater than 1.5? 3. Determine how large a marble’s diameter must be to be in the 99th percentile of marbles. 8 Example: Assume that height of American males is normally distributed with mean 70 inches and standard deviation of 3 inches. Assume that the height of American females is normally distributed with mean 67 inches and standard deviation of 3 inches. • Sketch the continuous distribution function for the height of American males. • Find the probability that a randomly selected American male has a height of less than 65 inches. • Find the probability that a randomly selected American male is at least six feet tall. • Find the probability that a randomly selected American female has a height of between 62 and 68 inches. • What height constitutes the 90th percentile for American males? What height constitutes the 50th percentile for American females? 9