Adaptation to climate change:
Identification of climatically
resilient hybrid poplars
Steve Chhin
8th SRWC 2010: Syracuse, NY
19 October 2010
Talk Outline
 Introduction
 Historical Growth-Climate Relationships
 Growth Forecasts Under Future Climate
Change
 Future Research Directions
2
24
Introduction
 Global Warming

1906-2005: 0.74oC
increase

 CO2: 1.1oC – 6.4oC
increase by 20902099
(Relative to 1980-1999)
 Precipitation
Trends


More uncertainty but
generally will increase
Could be negated by
increases in
evapotranspiration
Scenarios
(IPCC 2007)
3
24
Introduction
 Climate Change


Great Lakes Region
Michigan
4
24
Introduction
 Impact of Climate
on Forests


Northern regions
Biomes vs. species
 Ecosystem resilience

Capacity of an
ecosystem to absorb
disturbance and undergo
some degree of change
but still maintain its
essential functions and
structure
(Hogg & Bernier 2005)
5
24
Adaptation to Climate Change
 Adaptation framework
 Overall goal: Minimize the negative impacts of
climate change and realize potential benefits
 Examples:


Human assisted migration of trees
Reforestation with drought tolerant provenances
 Challenge: Costs and GCM uncertainties
 Framework should start with monitoring and
early detection of forest vulnerabilities to
climatic stress
6
24
Tree-Ring Analysis
 Vegetation-Climate Relationships:
Methodological Approaches
1)
2)
3)
4)
Pollen analysis: coarse temporal resolution
Eddy covariance flux towers: prohibitive costs
Remote sensing: need ground truthing
Dendrochronology: tree ring analysis
- Interannual
- Tree age
- Ring width
7
15
Tree-Ring Analysis
 Supplement to permanent sample plots
(PSPs)
 Monitoring forest growth and stand
development
 PSPs generally measured at 5- to 10-year
intervals: coarse temporal resolution
 Dendrochronology based stand reconstructions:
annual resolution
8
15
Rationale & Objectives: Poplar
 Rationale

Bioeconomy: biofuels &
bioenergy

Hybrid poplars
 Objectives

18 full-sib families of
P. x smithii Boivin
(Big-tooth aspen x
Trembling aspen)

Which hybrid poplar
families will likely be
more resilient to
climate change?
www. keetsa.com
9
24
Methods:
Parental
Sources
10
24
Field Methods
11
24
Lab. Methods
 Sanding
 Crossdating


False rings
Missing rings
Locally Absent
(http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/)
(Stokes & Smiley 1996)
12
24
Methods
Annual Ring Width
Area of Circle
Annual Basal Area
 Ring Measurement
 Image analysis
 Stage micrometer
13
24
Growth
Basal area index
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
2005
2010
14
24
Growth vs. Climate: Monthly Precipitation
Full-Sib Family
Month and Lag
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
2
11
__
.16
-.02
.26
.14
.44
CAL_WEX
LAK_MAR
BRA_CLA
GLA_GLA
IOS_GLA
VAN_IRO
SAG_CHI
MAR_CLA1
CAL_IRO
WEX_BEN
MAR_OAK
CHI_KAL
ROS_OAK
MON_VAN
GLA_CHI
OGE_GLA
MAR_ING
MAR_CLA2
(+r)
(-r)
(r)
¯
3
3
.07
-.18
.13
.28
.16
.28
-.28
7
__
-.04
-.36
1
-.06
-.09
-.12
-.03
.09
No. of Significant Correlations and Mean
15
24
Growth vs. Climate: Seasonal Precipitation
Full-Sib Family
Seasonal Period and Lag
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
14
__
1
1
1
1
2
4
11
.15
.26
.28
.45
CAL_WEX
LAK_MAR
BRA_CLA
GLA_GLA
IOS_GLA
VAN_IRO
SAG_CHI
MAR_CLA1
CAL_IRO
WEX_BEN
MAR_OAK
CHI_KAL
ROS_OAK
MON_VAN
GLA_CHI
OGE_GLA
MAR_ING
MAR_CLA2
(+r)
(-r)
(r)
¯
3
__
-.02
.08
.35
.46
.11
.01
-.29
.07
-.02
-.12
-.11
.02
.15
No. of Significant Correlations and Me16
24
Climate Change: Characteristics
 Climate Change Scenarios



A1B: convergent world, balanced energy use
B1: convergent world, environmental sustainability
A2: heterogeneous world, high population growth
Summer
Climate
Temp. (°C)
Precip. (mm)
P-PET (cm)
20112040
1.1
34
0.4
20412070
Winter
GCM Forecast Periods
20712100
20112040
20412070
20712100
20112040
2.8 3.8 1.8
-7
25
49
-9.9 -10.1 2.9
3.6
45
0.2
4.4
77
2.1
1.6
99
2.7
Annual
20412070
20712100
3.2 4.1
88 143
-9.3 -9.8
17
24
Change in growth (%)
Climate Change: Growth Forecasts
10
0
-10
-20
-30
X AR LA LA LA RO HI A1 RO EN AK AL AK AN HI LA NG A2 LL
E
W _M A_CA_GS_G N_I G_C_CL R_I _B _O I_K _O _V A_CE_G R_I _CL A
_
L K
A R
A A R A X R H S N L
L
CA LA BR G IO V S MA C WE MA C RO MO G OG M MA
Full-Sib Family
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
18
24
Mean Ann. Increment (cm²)
Climate Change: Growth Forecasts
40
30
20
10
0
X AR LA LA LA RO HI A1 RO EN AK AL AK AN HI LA NG A2 LL
E
C
I L A
I C L I
_WK_M A_CLA_GS_GAN_AG_R_CAR_ X_BR_OHI_KS_ON_VLA_ E_GAR_R_C
L
CA LA BR G IO V S MA C WE MA C RO MO G OG M MA
Full-Sib Family
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
19
24
Summary & Conclusions
 Climatic sensitivity in hybrid poplar
 Late summer and early fall moisture stress
 Current growth season
 Lag effect
 The degree of winter harshness
20
24
Future Work
 Stem Dendrometers
 Radial growth: automatic
band dendrometer
 Microclimate variables
 Soil moisture
 Light intensity
 Air temperature
 Relative humidity
 Soil temperature
21
24
Future Work: Tree-Ring Anatomy
 Implications for wood hydraulic properties
22
24
Future Work: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy
 Physical properties
 Wood density
 Method: X-ray
densitometer
 Chemical properties
 Cellulose
 Lignin
 Method: Wetchemical lab
 Near-infrared
spectroscopy
 Calibration
 Validation
(Yeh et al. 2005)
23
24
Acknowledgements
Project Initiation:
G. Reighard, J. Hanover,
D. Dickmann; Planters: Howe,
Miller, Anderson, Belli
Field and Lab Help: J. Willis, E. David, P. Bloese,
R. Klevickas
24
24