Annual Review 2013–14 Navigating the new geopolitics New power dynamics Security challenges Economic interdependencies Resource futures Law and governance Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is a world-leading source of independent analysis, informed debate and influential ideas on how to build a prosperous and secure world for all. Contents 2–3 Introduction 2013–14 Review 4–7 About us What we do at Chatham House Africa | Asia | Eurasia | MENA | US 8–13 New power dynamics Asia | Cyber | Energy | MENA | Nuclear 14–19 Security challenges Africa | Europe | Finance | G20 20–25 Economic interdependencies Asia | Energy | Food | Water 26–29 Resource futures Armed Conflict | Health | Human Rights 30–35 Law and governance 36 Honorary Treasurer’s Report 37 Financial Headlines 38 Patron, Presidents and Council 38 Panel of Senior Advisers and individual supporters 40 Financial Support 44 Staff and Associate Fellows Chatham House | 1 Introduction 2013–14 Review 2 | Chatham House 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 5,286 3,940 3,912 3,626 3,194 2,322 2,490 2,171 2,222 1,853 1,728 1,509 5,032 7,448 Chatham House research income (£’000) 1,224 Chairman’s Statement I am delighted to report that 2013–14 was another successful year for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, as the organization deepened and expanded further its research output and convening activities in a truly qualitative manner. I wrote last year, my first as Chairman, that my role is to support and enable the Director and the Chatham House team in their strategic objectives, which are to enhance our capabilities where required; implement new initiatives; ensure that we have the space and capacity to accommodate expansion; and secure longer-term funding. These goals still stand and we have made significant progress on nearly all fronts. We now have 140 full-time members of staff, with much of the growth coming from the continuing expansion of research. Total income for 2013–14 was £12,766,000, up from £9,845,000 the previous year (see the Honorary Treasurer’s Report for further details). Combined with this growth is an increasing diversity in our sources of funding, with a particular rise in the level of grants from foundations. In addition, the financial contributions from our sponsored conferences and our discretionary fundraising are significantly higher. Membership continues to grow in a steady fashion in all categories. Following the acquisition of the ground floor of Ames House (next door to Chatham House in Duke of York Street) and with further growth anticipated in the years ahead as we approach our centenary in 2020, it has been recognized that we lack the necessary financial reserve upon which to base our longer-term plans. The Council has therefore established a Second Century Initiative that will run until the institute’s centenary. This Initiative will help Chatham House to acquire the long-term resources to ensure its independence. Hillary Clinton, former US Secretary of State and winner of last year’s Chatham House Prize, told us that in these fast-changing times we all need to hold on to our values and be smart as we navigate future challenges – and that she counts on Chatham House to help do this. At our conference on ‘Combating Global Corruption’, Mo Ibrahim, Founder and Chair of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, noted the paramount importance of credibility for businesses and governments alike. Both speakers reminded me that the institute’s role is as highly valued as ever, and its integrity has never been more important. One measure of how highly we are regarded in our field was our ranking in January 2014 as the top non-US think-tank for the sixth consecutive year, and the second best think-tank in the world for the third year in a row, in the University of Pennsylvania’s annual Global Go To Think Tank Index of more than 6,000 peer organizations from across the world. 2012 2014 Amendments to the Charter and By-laws were unanimously approved at the Annual General Meeting in July 2013 and subsequently approved at a Privy Council meeting on 11 December. These changes allowed the institute to bring its governing documents up to date with current legislation, remove redundant provisions and improve the clarity and definition of key elements in both documents to better reflect our current requirements. This year Mohammed Abdel-Haq, Ryan Gawn and Martin Giles will step down as Council members. I would like to thank each of them for their engagement, which together with that of all my Council colleagues, our Presidents and Senior Advisers has been invaluable in shaping the institute’s impact and recent successes. Finally, I would like to commend the Director, Robin Niblett, and Chatham House staff and associate fellows for the many achievements and outputs noted in this year’s Annual Review. I am also immensely grateful to our members and supporters for their contributions and the ongoing and active roles they play in the successes of the institute. I am particularly pleased to acknowledge and welcome new donors who are broadening our existing networks and support base. Thanks to you all, Chatham House has not only maintained but also enhanced its reputation as one of the world’s most trusted and independent policy institutes on international affairs. Stuart Popham Director’s Statement Chatham House made significant progress on a number of fronts in 2013–14. I will highlight four here. First, Chatham House strengthened and expanded its outputs in the institute’s four areas of focus: international security including global health security; international economics; energy, environment and resources; and area studies and international law. The quality and scope of our research and convening continued to benefit from our independent and trusted reputation around the world, and our ability to engage outwards from the heart of London. For example, together with the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Canada, we launched earlier this year the Global Commission on Internet Governance, chaired by Carl Bildt, Sweden’s minister of foreign affairs. Our Resources Futures report was ranked second in the world in the category of Best Policy/Study Report, and the institute was assessed as having the third Best Transdisciplinary Research Programme by the University of Pennsylvania in its 2013 Global Go To Think Tank Index. And another report, using new research to identify volumes of theft of crude oil in Nigeria, had a major international impact in the sector and was widely and repeatedly cited in the international press, including the International New York Times, the Financial Times, The Economist and Foreign Policy, as well as on the BBC and CNN. Many of our studies are focused on resolving some of today’s most intractable challenges, so it is important for us to draw effectively on the lessons of our earlier work, which goes back almost a century. This year we officially launched our digital archive in collaboration with Cengage. This provides access to our rich history of content in over half a million pages of primary sources, ensuring that the institute will remain a vital source of accessible information and analysis for future generations. Second, our ability to attract leading and emerging thinkers from a growing range of sectors and backgrounds has also been strengthened this past year. We can now engage future leaders from around the world as fellows in our Academy for Leadership in International Affairs. The Academy was launched in September 2013 with the support of an Academy Advisory Board, chaired by The Rt Hon the Baroness Scotland of Asthal QC, Chatham House Co-President. This year we hosted Academy Fellows from China, Georgia, Japan, Russia and Syria, and their inputs have broadened further the perspectives we can offer. The intention is to expand the number of Academy Fellows this year from six to ten. I am also pleased to welcome Kevin Rudd, former prime minister and foreign minister of Australia, as a distinguished visiting fellow. His role at Chatham House will be to contribute to the institute’s activities relating to Asia, including China, the role of the G20 and climate change. Also, in March 2014, we appointed a new Head of the Asia Programme, Dr John Swenson-Wright, who will lead the institute’s growing agenda of work on this increasingly important region of the world. Third, our new logo and redesigned website are intended to provide the institute with an enhanced calling card that will be better understood by our networks around the world. By reintroducing our formal name ‘The Royal Institute of International Affairs’ alongside ‘Chatham House’, we underscore the fact that the institute is not only a trusted venue for debate but also one that undertakes rigorous analysis of major international developments. It also highlights the independence we derive from our Royal Charter. Fourth, given that London is, arguably, the world’s first global capital, we were conscious that the city lacked a major annual event on international affairs. The inaugural Chatham House London Conference, which was held on 3 June at Lancaster House, aims to use London’s advantages as a global hub in order to foster a comprehensive debate on the systemic risks facing the world as a result of the deepening process of globalization. As noted by the Chairman, our progress must be acknowledged in the context of all those who support us. Our Presidents, Council, Senior Advisers, members and individual supporters provide the guidance and the resources that Chatham House staff and our associate fellows need to develop new ideas and convene debates on international affairs. In turn, the institute’s staff and associate fellows have continued to rise to the challenge through a commitment to excellence in all that they do, which is clearly visible in this year’s Annual Review. Dr Robin Niblett Chatham House | 3 About us What we do at Chatham House Origins In 1919 British and American delegates to the Paris Peace Conference, appalled by the waste of human life caused by the First World War, conceived the idea of an Anglo-American institute of foreign affairs to study international problems. In the event, the British Institute of International Affairs was founded in London in July 1920 and the American delegates established the Council on Foreign Relations separately in New York. The institute received its Royal Charter in 1926 and became the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Since 1923 the institute has been based at Chatham House and is now more commonly known by this name. Chatham House, the home of three former British prime ministers, is located in historic St James’s Square close to key government departments in the heart of London. Mission Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is a world-leading source of independent analysis, informed debate and influential ideas on how to build a prosperous and secure world for all. The institute: • engages governments, the private sector, civil society and its members in open debates and confidential discussions about significant developments in international affairs; • produces independent and rigorous analysis of critical global, regional and country-specific challenges and opportunities; • offers new ideas to decision-makers and -shapers on how these could best be tackled from the near to the long term. Demand for Chatham House’s research, convening capacity and ideas is growing. In response, the institute is focusing its efforts on three priorities: expanding and deepening core areas of research capacity; engaging emerging leaders from around the world, through the creation of an Academy for Leadership in International Affairs within the institute; and gaining access to additional physical space adjacent to the institute’s current premises in order to accommodate the first two priorities. Independent analysis What we do • Our reports, papers, books and other research output provide independent and in-depth analysis. Area studies and international law International security International economics Energy, environment and resources 4 | Chatham House • International Affairs, a leading journal of international relations, combines policy relevance with an academic, in-depth analytical approach to contemporary world politics. • The World Today, the institute’s magazine, presents authoritative analysis and commentary on current topics. It provides a vital background for experts, business planners, academics and others. • The Chatham House website received 1,633,316 individual visits last year. • The institute received more than 2,000 citations in major international media outlets during 2013–14. Chatham House is now placed in the top five, in terms of media coverage, in comparison with the world’s leading think-tanks. Ivica Dačić, Prime Minister of Serbia (2012–14), speaking on ‘Serbia’s Future in Europe’ in October 2013. Julie Bishop, Foreign Minister, Australia, speaking on ‘The Evolution of Australian Foreign Policy’ in March 2013. Members Ever since its founding in 1920, Chatham House has relied on its members, both individuals and corporates, to support its mission, especially its role as a platform for informed debate on the most pressing issues in international affairs. Members are drawn from the worlds of business, diplomacy, academia, politics, the media and civil society. They play an essential role in questioning and challenging world leaders and other speakers when they visit Chatham House. While the majority are UK-based, overseas members (based in more than 76 countries) form an increasingly significant proportion of the total. Chatham House benefits from a wide range of philanthropic, research-related and membership support. This diversity of support is critical to the independence of the institute. The Chatham House Council is composed of members of the institute, elected annually for a three-year term. The Council may co-opt a small number of additional members each year. It is my great honour to speak to you here today in the shrine of foreign policy thought. Ivica Dačić, Prime Minister of Serbia (2012–14) Chatham House provides a forum in which I can meet members and international speakers with valuable insights and updates on my particular field of activities. Dr David Skidmore OBE MA MD FRCS Consulting Surgeon and member of Chatham House Informed debate New policy ideas • Around 120 events for members and some 15 major one- or two-day conferences last year enabled world leaders and experts to exchange ideas. • A number of research projects culminate in Chatham House Reports which make recommendations for tackling a range of key policy challenges. • Research programmes hosted more than 250 workshops, seminars and briefings on a range of policy questions. • These recommendations are frequently developed iteratively with leading policy-makers, giving them a stake in the ideas. • Experts frequently provide evidence to government officials and legislators in Beijing, Brussels, Delhi, London, Washington and other capitals. • Experts provide briefings with their ideas to government officials and legislators in relevant capitals around the world. • Regular briefings for corporate partners and members allow them to interact with invited speakers under the Chatham House Rule. • Chatham House consistently ranks highly in the University of Pennsylvania’s annual Global Go To Think Tank Index, where it has been assessed by its peers as the No.1 think-tank outside the US for six consecutive years and No. 2 worldwide for the past three years. Chatham House | 5 About us I am delighted to be associated with Chatham House. We are living in fast-changing times. We have to hold on to our values and our ideals but we have to be smart about how we chart our course forward together. I count on Chatham House to be one of the guides as we navigate to whatever the future holds for us. Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State (2009–13), receiving the Chatham House Prize in October 2013 Left: Baroness Scotland QC, Co-President of Chatham House, speaking at the 2013 Chatham House Prize award ceremony. Far left: From left to right: Baroness Scotland QC in conversation with Bill Clinton, Kevin Rudd and Lynn Forester de Rothschild at the Chatham House Prize award ceremony. 2013 July August September October November December Report on Iraq Iraq on the International Stage: Foreign Policy and National Identity in Transition warned about the dangers of exploiting sectarian discourses in the country and the region. The World Today focus on the Arctic A special issue of The World Today focused on the globalization of the Arctic, with senior research fellow Charles Emmerson looking at the competition for its vast wealth of natural resources. Academy for Leadership in International Affairs The Academy welcomed the first intake of fellows − potential and established leaders from around the world who spend up to twelve months at Chatham House. Focus on foreign correspondents Bill Neely of ITV News (below), Harriet Alexander from The Telegraph, and Professor Richard Sambrook from Cardiff University discussed the future of international news reporting. Extractives industries report launch Conflict and Coexistence in the Extractives Industries warned that disputes over extractives projects are set to escalate – the report’s recommendations were widely welcomed by experts and policymakers. Afghanistan: Opportunity in Crisis In the run-up to the 2014 presidential elections in Afghanistan, Chatham House experts prepared publications, events, podcasts and video interviews on how Western governments can encourage and support stability. 6 | Chatham House Left to right: Martti Ahtisaari, President of Finland (1994–2000), Nobel Peace Laureate, 2008 with Lakhdar Brahimi, United Nations-Arab League Special Representative to Syria, and Jimmy Carter, President of the United States (1977–81), Nobel Peace Laureate, 2002, discussing ‘Can The Two State Solution Be Saved?’ in July 2013. Right: Obiageli Ezekwesili, Senior Economic Adviser, Africa Economic Development Policy Initiative, Open Society Foundations at the inaugural Chatham House London Conference in June 2014. Far right: Ruan Zongze, Vice President, China Institute of International Studies and Alyson Bailes, Adjunct Professor, University of Iceland at the London Conference. UK Foreign Secretary William Hague at the inaugural London Conference in June 2014 with Chatham House Director Robin Niblett. Each year the institute hosts around 400 events in London and internationally. 2014 January February March April May June International Affairs 90th anniversary An event to mark the 90th volume of the journal included remarks on its history and contribution to international relations by Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman and Professor Christopher Hill. Jeremy Paxman on Britain and the Great War In an event chaired by Dr Anthony Seldon, Master, Wellington College, broadcaster Jeremy Paxman spoke about his book Great Britain’s Great War. Parliamentary briefing The institute briefed members of parliament on the key foreign policy challenges facing the UK in the wider Middle East. Launch of new brand Chatham House introduced its new brand, including the new logo and redesigned publications. Online archive partnership Chatham House announced that its partnership with Gale Cengage Learning would make previously unseen archive documents available via the library and on subscription. Website redesign Chatham House launched its new website, to provide a better user experience, including mobile- and tablet-responsive designs. Chatham House | 7 Africa | Asia | Eurasia | MENA | US New power dynamics Professor John Ikenberry, Albert G Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Eastman Professor, Balliol College, Oxford, speaking on ‘The Rise of China and the Future of Liberal World Order’ in May 2014. China’s more assertive regional policy, the crisis in Ukraine and its consequences for relations between the West and Russia, and the deepening turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa are all contributing to an uncertain world. Chatham House is addressing these issues and other changes in the dynamics of international power through research outputs and meetings. China’s growing global impact The Asia Programme’s research on China explores the drivers and implications of the country’s continued growth and its global impact. This includes the changes in its official approaches to international affairs and global governance, the external impact of organic social and economic developments in China, and the ways in which various Chinese actors influence and respond to developments in Asia and beyond. A research paper by Tim Summers showed how China’s evolving ‘global personality’ shapes its relations with other powers in Asia and further afield. It also argued the complex dynamics behind this evolution can create more difficulties in the Chinese–US relationship in particular. Since 2011, Chatham House has also produced research and provided advice on China-related topics to policy-makers at the European Commission as part of the EU-funded consortium Europe China Research and Advice Network (ECRAN). Now in its fourth year, ECRAN has commissioned more than 100 policy briefings and 25 extended studies. These have covered a range of topics including cross-Strait military relations, education in China’s minority areas, Chinese innovation collaboration with Europe and economic integration in the Pearl River Delta. ECRAN has continued to promote its research by convening events across Europe, involving EU decision-makers and the growing community of European specialists on China. Left: People stand in a metro train during the rush hour in Beijing. China’s continued growth and increasing economic power are shaping new power dynamics regionally and globally. Right: A pro-Russian militant eats next to his guns in the regional state government building seized by separatists in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk. 8 | Chatham House Sir Roderic Lyne, Vice Chair of Chatham House Council (left), and Mikhail Margelov, Chairman, Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, discussing ‘Russia’s Vision for the Middle East and North Africa’ in December 2013. Mona Zulficar, Founding Partner and Chair, Executive Committee, Zulficar and Partners Law Firm at an event on ‘Egypt: A Political Road Map’ in October 2013. Ukraine, Russia and the West The crisis in Ukraine, and its consequences for relations between the West and Russia, have been at the forefront of the work of the Russia and Eurasia Programme, which has been highlighting the risks and dangers that led to this year’s events since the mid-1990s. Numerous programme publications have pointed out the direct contradiction between Western and Russian attitudes towards the postSoviet states. Western governments, however, articulated a narrative of ‘steadily improving relations’ with Russia. James Sherr’s 2013 book, Hard Diplomacy and Soft Coercion, also provided a timely study of the mechanisms of Russia’s influence abroad. In February 2014, as the crisis escalated, the Russia and Eurasia Programme organized an emergency expertlevel meeting to outline Western policy options on Russia and Ukraine in advance of an EU foreign ministers’ meeting to decide on sanctions. During the year, the programme has also hosted a wide range of speakers, including Vitaliy Klitschko and Evgeny Kiselev from Ukraine and Vladimir Shemyakin from Russia, who offered their take on the current crisis, as well as on other developments in the postSoviet space. The programme has also been commissioned to organize a workshop to define principles for the United Kingdom’s longer-term policy towards Russia, and continues to publish research papers and commentary on Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa Iran’s cautious rapprochement with the West, regime change in Egypt and Tunisia’s delicate transition reflect significant shifts that continue to redefine power dynamics within, between and beyond states in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), highlighting the volatility of political processes across the region. To understand the complexity of the competing aspirations and interests that drive political change, the MENA Programme has placed inclusive political dialogue at the heart of its work. As lead implementer of the G8’s Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative, Chatham House has provided a unique platform for dialogue between regional civil society organizations and governments. Building on last year’s success, the Young Arab Analysts Network International continues to empower new researchers from Morocco to engage more effectively with policy communities at home and abroad, cementing the impact of youth-led networks of policy thinkers across North Africa. The Academy Asfari Fellowship, a joint initiative with the Asfari Foundation, has also brought fellows from the Middle East to Chatham House where they have provided a local perspective on some of the most pressing challenges facing the region. They have joined other fellows from China, Japan and Eastern Europe in the first year of Chatham House’s Academy. Chatham House | 9 Africa | Asia | Eurasia | MENA | US New power dynamics Diversified engagements of a changing Africa Africa Programme research is tracking how the continent’s countries continue to diversify their international relations as outside interest grows. Foreign governments and businesses are seeking to deepen their engagement with African states, drawn by the continent’s strong economic growth (5.6 per cent in 2013), new natural resource finds, and impact in international forums such as the United Nations, where 28 per cent of members are African. The Africa Programme at Chatham House is examining these changing dynamics through deep analysis of African governments’ priorities, and countries’ individual political and economic contexts. The programme’s analysis examines the links between the continent’s commercially and politically driven international engagement and economic transformation, democratization, the rule of law, development and stability in sub-Saharan African countries. Through publications, events in London and African cities and outreach to a diverse network of policy informers, the programme informs international policy debate on Africa’s trajectory. Recent outputs include a report on the implications of the theft of crude oil for export from Nigeria; a paper on Djibouti as a strategic hub; a series of maritime security conferences involving stakeholders from West Africa; and events with the Presidents of Ghana and Guinea and with China’s Special Representative on African Affairs. 10 | Chatham House Shifts in the Horn of Africa The Horn of Africa is a changing region, with shifting political, economic and security relationships between its countries, particularly with the recent addition of South Sudan, now in conflict. The Africa Programme’s Horn of Africa project focuses on international engagement with the region, how regional dynamics and outcomes are affected, and how outcomes might be fostered. The research deepens understanding of the interactions of regional bodies, of international diaspora communities and their engagement, and of a range of bilateral relations. It informs decision-makers of the multiplicity of influences on outcomes in a complex environment. In 2013, small but strategically important Djibouti was examined in a briefing paper, Djibouti: Changing Influence in the Horn’s Strategic Hub. Dr David Styan provided analysis on the country’s impact on regional and international relations, and its growth as a maritime and military laboratory where new forms of international cooperation are being developed. Far left: James Copnall, BBC Correspondent and author, at an event on ‘Sudan and South Sudan: The Importance of Interdependence’ in March 2014. Right: HE Thein Sein, President, Republic of the Union of Myanmar, speaking at an event on ‘Myanmar and the Reform Process’ in July 2013. Left: HE Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete, President of the United Republic of Tanzania, speaking on ‘Tanzania’s Transformation and Vision 2025: Governing Economic Growth for Social Gain’ in March 2014. Far right: Vrinda Grover, Lawyer and Women’s Rights Activist, speaking at an event on ‘Women in India: Law, Violence and Change’ in December 2013. India and South Asia Chatham House’s work on India focuses on its international relations in the region and globally. The Asia Programme explores what motivates Indian foreign policy-making and how the country’s relations with Western powers compare to those with other powers such as Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa in new international groupings including the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa). The programme convenes a large number of open and closed meetings on issues relating to South Asia and in 2013 organized a major conference in London exploring prospects for regionalization and reform in India in the run-up to the 2014 general election. Chatham House research also extends to political dynamics in the rest of South Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh. For example, Charu Lata Hogg examined the obstacles to change in Sri Lanka in a June 2013 paper, while Dr Gareth Price wrote two papers exploring India’s policy towards Myanmar (Burma) and Afghanistan. Chatham House is an institute of critical global importance. Angel Gurria, Secretary-General of the OECD February 2014 Japan and the United Kingdom Chatham House’s work on Japan focuses on the country’s relations with the United Kingdom through a five-year project funded by the Nippon Foundation and run in partnership with it and the Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation. As part of this project, the Asia Programme released a conference report that included contributions by Japanese experts on various aspects of the UK-Japanese relationship. In addition, a briefing paper by Programme Head John Swenson-Wright considered the prospects for a more proactive Japanese security policy. In its second year, the project will examine Japan’s role in addressing global challenges. It will provide an opportunity to consider what part, whether singly, jointly or in combination with other international actors, Japan and the UK might play in addressing these challenges. Above: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe leaves Downing Street following a meeting with British Prime Minister David Cameron. Above left: Supporters wear masks of Narendra Modi during a rally in Mumbai, following his landslide election victory. Far left: A young boy at work in the fields, watering maize crops just outside Bangui, Central African Republic. Chatham House | 11 Africa | Asia | Eurasia | MENA | US New power dynamics Europe’s place in the world What will the world look like in 2030, and what will be Europe’s place in it? In partnership with the thinktank FRIDE, Chatham House produced a major report for the European Commission exploring how power and governance in international affairs will evolve over the coming two decades. Empowering Europe’s Future highlighted the simultaneous trends of growing economic interdependence, shifts in power and political fragmentation. It also examined how these issues will be shaped by patterns of conflict and developments in technology. The report recommended that the EU build technological and research capabilities, transform its approach to energy, and focus its foreign policy on conflict prevention and strategic partnerships, particularly in its neighbourhood. Elite perceptions of the US in Europe and Asia Understanding how others see the United States and what factors influence their views can help to guide effective American policy-making. Supported by the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, the US Project published Elite Perceptions of the United States in Europe and Asia in May 2014. The report distilled the results of essays by more than 50 elites in 13 countries in Europe and Asia that explained how they perceived the US and why. These were then contrasted with polling data about the views of the general public in these two regions. The study revealed that Europeans value American soft power and long for a return to US moral authority, which they say has been lacking. Asians, meanwhile, are more concerned with the role of US hard power. The US Project, with the support of Shell, has also examined the foreign policy implications of the US energy revolution and how this will shape relations with Russia and other former Soviet states. With NATO’s summit in Cardiff in September and the end of its operation in Afghanistan at the close of 2014, the US Project is working with NATO and the UK government (supported also by Canadian National Defence) to help craft a way forward for the organization. And, through the generosity of the MacArthur Foundation, the US Project finished work on a report on Asia-Pacific security and is starting a new study on the changing balance of power in Asia. 12 | Chatham House Light trails from London traffic, in the area known as Silicon Roundabout. Developments in technology will be one of the issues that shape Europe’s future over the coming two decades. American views of US global power US role today as world leader is: Less important than 10 years ago More important than 10 years ago % 50 40 30 20 10 0 1974 1984 1994 Source: Pew Research Center, America’s Place in the World 2013 (from Elite Perceptions of the United States in Europe and Asia). 2004 2013 Far left: Victor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, speaking on ‘The Role of Traditional Values in Europe’s Future’ in October 2013. People New power dynamics Left: US Senator Marco Rubio speaking on ‘American Leadership and the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance’ in December 2013. John Swenson-Wright Dr John Swenson-Wright is head of the Asia Programme at Chatham House and university senior lecturer in Japanese politics and international relations at Cambridge University. He comments regularly for the global media on the international relations of East Asia, particularly on Japan and the Korean peninsula. He has testified on East Asian affairs to the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee. He is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Korea and of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group. He is on the editorial board of Global Asia and is a founding member of the European Japan Advanced Research Network. Rosheen Kabraji Rosheen Kabraji is assistant head and a research associate of the Asia Programme at Chatham House. She joined the institute in 2009, after working at the International Institute for Environment and Development. Her expertise includes politics and society in Pakistan, India and Thailand. Over the past year, she has been working on projects examining the regional implications of the withdrawal of international support from Afghanistan, and the changing dynamics of state centre relations in Indian foreign policy. In 2011 she was featured in the Diplomatic Courier and Young Professionals in Foreign Policy inaugural list of the top 99 most influential international professionals in foreign policy under 33. She has an MPhil in international relations from the University of Cambridge. Ilya Zaslavskiy Ilya Zaslavskiy is an Academy Robert Bosch fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme. He is a member of the first year of Chatham House Academy fellows. Prior to joining Chatham House in February 2014, he worked as an energy-sector consultant in Moscow and New York for several years. He specializes in evaluating political and economic environments for the strategic entry of oil companies into developing countries − with a particular focus on the Caspian region and Russia. He is also researching the spread of corrupt practices from Russia and the other former Soviet states into the United States and the UK. A Russian national, he holds an MPhil in international relations from the University of Oxford. Further reading: Hard Diplomacy and Soft Coercion: Russia’s Influence Abroad, James Sherr Chatham House | 13 Asia | Cyber | Energy | MENA | Nuclear Security challenges Jane Harman, Director, President and CEO of the Wilson Center, was part of a panel discussion on ‘The Snowden Revelations: One Year On’ in June 2014. Over the past year, Chatham House has explored a wide range of security challenges, including the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons, cyber security and internet governance, climate change and energy security, sexual violence in conflict, and Africa’s maritime security. There are also major projects on the prospects for a peaceful political transition in Afghanistan and on the implications of the conflict in Syria for its immediate neighbours – Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Israel – as it enters its fourth year. Humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons Chatham House continues to play a leading role in the international initiative to address the humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons. Through a project supported by the Norwegian Government, it hosted five workshops in the UK, South Africa and Argentina. The workshops brought together a diverse set of stakeholders from civil society and humanitarian organizations to discuss the humanitarian effects of a nuclear detonation. Experts from the International Security Department also attended the Second Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons in Nayarit, Mexico, where they presented the initial findings of a Swiss-, Austrian- and Mexican-supported report, Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Policy Options, which was published in April 2014. 14 | Chatham House In addition, Chatham House hosted the first of its Carrington series of events in July 2013, a discussion with Sir Lawrence Freedman and Ward Wilson on the deterrent value of nuclear weapons, as well as numerous events on a diverse range of nuclear topics. These included: nuclear ethics, the weapons of mass destruction free zone in the Middle East, progress on the US non-proliferation agenda and recent activities of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, with its secretary-general, Lassina Zerbo. Professor Sir David Omand GCB, Visiting Professor, King’s College London; Former Security and Intelligence Coordinator; Permanent Secretary, Home Office; Director, GCHQ speaking at an event on ‘Counterterrorism: The Right Response?’ in September 2013. Cyber security and internet governance The International Security Department’s cyber programme is an integral component of its work, reflecting the multitude of security and governance concerns that the cyber realm presents. In the last year, it carried out research and convened events on a variety of issues, including the cyber security challenges to outer-space technology and the potential threat to civil nuclear infrastructure. The department hosted experts such as Sir David Omand and Francis Maude MP, the UK minister for the Cabinet Office and paymaster general. This work continues in 2014 with an internet governance seminar series. The Global Commission on Internet Governance was launched in January 2014 with the support of Chatham House and the Canadian Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI). Chaired by Sweden’s foreign minister, Carl Bildt, the commission is made up of high-level members from around the world, representing different sectors including the corporate sector, academia and policy-making. Its first meeting took place in May 2014 in Stockholm. The commission will meet regularly over the next two years to consider the challenges related to keeping the internet a safe and secure as well as an open and innovative resource. The commission is supported by a research advisory network of experts who provide in-depth advice and support. Liu Xiaoming, Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to the UK, speaking on ‘Political and Security Challenges in Asia: A Chinese Perspective’ in February 2014. The Korean peninsula Work by the Asia Programme on the Korean peninsula, much of which has been funded by the Korea Foundation, examines inter-Korean relations, South Korea’s foreign policy and the regional and global implications of North Korea’s nuclear proliferation, as well as the broader security challenges it poses. These challenges will be explored further as part of a new year-long research initiative focusing on regional security challenges in East Asia. South Korea is also the focal point of a three-year comparative research project examining the role of midsized ‘creative’ powers in addressing conventional security risks, proliferation challenges and environmental issues. Above: A South Korean soldier stands guard inside a military armistice committee meeting room in Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea. Left: Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt, who chairs the Chatham House-CIGI Global Commission on Internet Governance, talks to the press prior to a Foreign Affairs Council meeting in April 2014. Far left: Admiral Anne Cullerre holds a press conference in the ‘Martine’ life base in the Mururoa atoll, south Pacific, where French forces conducted 138 nuclear weapon tests until 1996. Chatham House | 15 Asia | Cyber | Energy | MENA | Nuclear Security challenges Climate change and energy security Extreme weather has raised more concerns about anthropogenic warming and its future impacts. Against this background, political momentum is building towards the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change summit in Paris, when governments are set to agree a new global climate deal. However, climate policy cannot be considered in isolation from economic competitiveness and energy security. Balancing these has become a major challenge for governments in the context of shifting energy interdependencies, slowdowns in emerging economies and sluggish recoveries in developed ones. This has been easier to reconcile in the United States, where shale gas has led to a dramatic fall in energy prices and in import dependency on oil and gas, as shown in the May 2013 briefing paper US Energy: the New Reality. This also has significant implications for US foreign policy as America becomes an ever larger energy supplier to Asia, and China in particular. Below: Workers clear scrap metal in Tacloban, Philippines in the wake of Typhoon Haiyan, which left more than 6,000 dead and many more homeless. Right: Presidents Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger, Ali Bongo Ondimba of Gabon, Faure Gnassingbe of Togo and Idriss Deby Itno of Chad at a meeting on maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea. 16 | Chatham House Anders Fogh Rasmussen, SecretaryGeneral, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, speaking on ‘The Future of NATO: A Strong Alliance in an Unpredictable World’ in June 2014. African lessons in maritime security The Africa Programme is a leading source of research and policy advice on Africa’s maritime security challenges. In the last year, its work has focused on enhancing coordination and collaboration between stakeholders affected by increased insecurity in West Africa’s waters. A paper in July 2013, Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea: Lessons Learned from the Indian Ocean, fed into discussions at a summit on maritime security held for West Africa’s heads of state in Cameroon. The programme also organized six maritime security conferences in 2013–14 including in Ghana, Nigeria and São Tomé and Príncipe, in coordination with the visits of British naval vessels HMS Argyll and HMS Portland to West Africa. Drawing on its strong network of contacts from international navies, west and east African regional bodies, and the legal, insurance and commercial sectors of the shipping industry, the Africa Programme’s maritime events have attracted speakers including Nigeria’s chief of naval staff, Ghana’s chief of defence staff and the foreign minister of Togo. The expertise provided by the programme has also fed into the European Union’s policy on the Gulf of Guinea. From left: Dr Christopher Phillips, associate fellow, and Dr Claire Spencer, Head, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House; Roula Khalaf, Middle East Editor, Financial Times; and Lord Williams of Baglan, distinguished visiting fellow, Chatham House, discussing ‘Syria: The Fate of a Nation’ in July 2013. Syria in a turbulent neighbourhood As the conflict in Syria enters its fourth year, Chatham House has placed the country’s immediate neighbours − Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Israel − at the core of its work to understand the conflict’s regional dimensions. In 2014, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Programme has embarked on a major multi-year project to support a coordinated policy response to the crisis through the inclusion of diverse regional perspectives in international policy. This work will explore competing and complementary interests at the bilateral, regional and international levels, and build confidence between Syria’s neighbours. Western Policy Towards Syria: Ten Recommendations, published in December 2013, also proposed innovative policy steps to refocus the response of Western governments to the Syria crisis. Meanwhile, Iraq’s elections in April 2014 raised important questions about its role as an international actor in an increasingly turbulent region. A major report, Iraq on the Regional and International Stage, reviewed the varied interests, influences and actors in the country’s actions abroad. Bulent Arinc, Deputy Prime Minister, Turkey, speaking on ‘The Future of Democracy in Turkey: Perceptions and Realities’ in February 2014. Above: Syrian students sit in front of a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad at a polling station in Homs. The exiled opposition called the controversial presidential election a ‘farce’. Below: A Syrian child stands in the snow in a refugee camp in the town of Arsal in the Lebanese Bekaa valley in December 2013. Thousands of Syrian refugees live in makeshift camps in Lebanon. Chatham House | 17 Asia | Cyber | Energy | MENA | Nuclear Security challenges Opportunities in Afghanistan and Pakistan Chatham House’s work on Afghanistan examined the prospects for a peaceful political transition as the presidential election took place this year against the backdrop of the withdrawal of Western troops. The project ‘Afghanistan: Opportunity in Crisis’, headed by Michael Keating and Matt Waldman, has looked at how Western governments can encourage and support stability in the country after 2014, focusing on elections, reconciliation and development. Research also examines Afghanistan’s relations with its neighbours and the development challenges it faces through assessing at the potential benefits of regional engagement in South Asia. Political instability and Islamic radicalization in Pakistan, and the policies of the West towards Pakistan, are other key research interests for the Asia Programme. Experts have also examined Pakistan’s role in the peace process in Afghanistan, and its regional relationships on issues such as water. Challenges of Western defence policy Western governments continue to face major defence policy problems. Following a decade of difficult and controversial wars, public support for military intervention is uncertain. Budget reductions have forced significant cuts in military capability, and a range of new or recurring security problems presents some significant challenges. The International Security Department has researched where and why past Western interventions have proved so problematic, and what lessons should be learnt from the difficult experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. James de Waal’s report, Depending on the Right People: British Political-Military Relations 2001–10, examined in particular the process and quality of defence policy decision-making. A major speech in March 2014 by the Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Peter Wall, set out how the British army is changing in the light of its past experience and likely future demands on it. The changing character of conflict and its impact on militaries, civilians and societies has been considered in a series of discussion events with international armed forces, NGOs and civil society groups. Finally, the US Project has been working on roundtables culminating in a publication on the way forward for NATO in advance of its summit in September. Commemorating the First World War Both International Affairs and The World Today published special issues commemorating the centenary of the outbreak of the First World War. In The World Today, this included an article by senior fellow James de Waal, who explored the working relationship between politicians and generals in the Great War and in modern-day Iraq and Afghanistan. International Affairs commissioned twelve articles including a review article from authors specializing in the military, political, social and artistic legacies of the war. The journal also organized related activities, including an exhibition of photographs by Michael St Maur Sheil of the battlefields of the Western Front as they are now; an exhibition of bronze friezes of the battlefields by sculptor Philip Blacker, and a specially commissioned performance of music and poetry celebrating the work of Ivor Gurney. 18 | Chatham House Above left: An Afghan man walks past an election mural in Kandahar. Afghanistan’s presidential election was the third since the fall of the Taliban, with 11 candidates contesting the polls. Above: Soldiers of 1st Battalion, the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers, march through London on their return from a tour in Afghanistan. People Security challenges Above: General Sir Peter Wall, Chief of the General Staff, British Army, speaking on ‘Defence Engagement: The British Army’s Role in Building Security and Stability Overseas’ in March 2014. Above left: Ahmed Rashid, Pakistani journalist and author, in discussion with Bridget Kendall, Diplomatic Editor, BBC, on ‘Pakistan: Implications of the Afghanistan Drawdown’ in July 2013. Michael Keating Michael Keating is senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, where he is directing a project on political transition in Afghanistan. Until the end of 2012, he was deputy special representative of the UN secretary-general in Afghanistan. His UN career has included development, humanitarian and political responsibilities in the Middle East, Africa, Geneva and New York. He is an adviser on conflict resolution and continues to undertake assignments for the UN. He has contributed to a wide range of publications and serves on the board of a number of nonprofit organizations promoting environmental, health and education issues. He has an MA in history from the University of Cambridge. James de Waal James de Waal is a senior fellow in the International Security Department at Chatham House. He formerly worked for the Foreign & Commonwealth Office, including diplomatic postings at the United Nations, in Berlin and in Santiago, and was seconded to the Ministry of Defence during the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review. His expertise includes defence policy of the UK and major Western nations, international trends in armed conflict, and government decision-making on military interventions and the role of strategy. In November 2013, he published the Chatham House paper, Depending on the Right People: British PoliticalMilitary Relations, 2001–10. Heather Williams Heather Williams is a research fellow with the International Security Department at Chatham House. Since 2011, she has also been a guest lecturer and teaching assistant at King’s College London. Prior to this, her posts included researcher at the Institute for Defense Analyses (Alexandria, Virginia) and research associate at the Centre for Science and Security Studies. Her areas of expertise include nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, nuclear strategy, missile defence, and chemical weapons destruction. Her PhD is on the role of trust in US–Russia arms control. She was a co-author on the Chatham House Report, Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy, published in April 2014. Further reading: Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy, Patricia Lewis, Heather Williams, Sasan Aghlani and Benoît Pelopidas. Chatham House | 19 Africa | Europe | Finance | G20 Economic interdependencies The evolution of China’s renminbi strategy, the imbalances in the eurozone, and global economic governance and the G20 are all high on the international agenda. There is also growing awareness of the economic potential of Latin America, and Chatham House has responded by starting a new research project on this topic. The past year also saw the culmination of a multi-year research project on Yemen, with the publication of a report on corruption and capital flight in that country. More broadly, the institute continues to work with governments and businesses on global economic governance and policy coordination. China’s renminbi strategy China’s financial liberalization and the evolution of its strategy for the renminbi remained a key topic throughout 2013. The International Economics Department undertook a number of joint research projects to study the growing use and impact of the renminbi across Asia, including a workshop in Hong Kong with the Institute for New Economic Thinking and the Centre for International Governance Innovation, and a seminar in Tokyo with the Asian Development Bank Institute. The research results were published in June 2013 in a briefing paper by Paola Subacchi and Helena Huang, Taipei and the Renminbi Offshore Market: Another Piece in the Jigsaw, as well as in an ADBI working paper in December 2013, ‘Expanding Beyond Borders: The Yen and the Yuan’, by Paola Subacchi. 20 | Chatham House Far left: Enrico Letta, Prime Minister of Italy, discusses ‘Italy and the UK in an Evolving EU’ with Chatham House Director, Robin Niblett in July 2013. Cecilia Malmström, Commissioner for Home Affairs, European Commission, in discussion with Nick Robinson, Political Editor, BBC, on ‘The Future of EU Migration Policy’ in March 2014. Tackling the eurozone crisis Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union needs deeper and more effective economic and financial integration, and better governance. The International Economics Department fostered a public debate on these issues through a series of roundtables held in London, Madrid and Rome with experts from national governments, the private sector and international organizations. The research focused on the macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances in the eurozone, on policies for growth and on prospects for a banking union. The project culminated in March 2014 in the publication of a joint Chatham House, Elcano and AREL report, How to Fix the Euro: Strengthening Economic Governance in Europe. The report examined why the eurozone was so badly affected by the crisis, and assessed whether further changes need to be made to the structure of economic governance that underpins it. As eurozone countries move towards closer integration, another project, with the support of the European Commission Representation in the UK, looked at the relationship between the UK and the EU, and assessed the prospects for countries that are not part of the currency union. In particular, it focused on the trends and implications of foreign direct investment and trade arrangements in the UK, and on London’s financial centre, with an analysis of trends in capital movements and the role and impact of financial regulation. A changing world economy and the G20 framework The increasingly interconnected world economy requires careful analysis and assessment of challenges, such as global macroeconomic imbalances and the need to foster sustained growth after the global financial crisis. The International Economics Department explored monetary and financial spillovers within the framework of its ongoing partnership with the International Monetary Fund. Its focus on global economic governance and the G20 also included collaboration with the Lowy Institute for International Policy, the Brookings Institution and the Australian government as it chairs the G20 in 2014. Above: G20 finance ministers and Central Bank governors gather for an official group photo in Sydney. Left: A boy holding a European flag waits for the start of a rally marking the last day of the European Parliament election campaign in Barcelona. Far left: George Osborne, the United Kingdom’s chancellor of the exchequer, listens as Li Keqiang, China’s premier, addresses the UK China Financial Forum in London. Chatham House | 21 Africa | Europe | Finance | G20 Economic interdependencies Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Google, in conversation with Nik Gowing, BBC World News, at a conference on ‘Power and Commerce in the Internet Age’ in November 2013. International competitiveness and growth Partnering with the Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy in the Department of Economics at Warwick University, the International Economics Department at Chatham House analyses the shifting dynamics in the world economy. The research explores the way in which markets, institutions and public policy interact to create and sustain competitive advantage in response to global changes. It aims to develop a better understanding of how to promote institutions and policies that are conducive to successful economic performance. A resulting series of papers has looked at a wide range of topics, including how women in politics can help tackle gender crime, human development as positive freedom, the danger posed to employment by high home ownership, fiscal federalism in the United Kingdom, and improving the effectiveness of pro-poor policies. A project on industrial transformation, supported by the Toshiba International Foundation (TIFO), culminated in a research report, The World’s Industrial Transformation, published in July 2013, which presented case studies on the aircraft, automotive, pharmaceutical and retail industries. Zimbabwe’s recovery and international re-engagement In April 2014, the Africa Programme published Zimbabwe’s International Re-engagement: the Long Haul to Recovery, a report on priorities to place the country on a path to economic recovery through the normalization of its international relations. Mindful of outstanding values-based rifts, political and human security challenges and systemic impediments, this Africa Programme project targeted the new Zimbabwean government and the opposition, private sector and civil society actors, and regional and international stakeholders with recommendations in support of a process of improved performance and outcomes – economic and social – in the country. The report underscores the government’s need to reach out to a range of actors to avoid further economic decline. The report has been widely commented upon by government officials, the media and civil society activists. In 2013, Chatham House also hosted a roundtable meeting with the first ZanuPF minister to visit the UK in over a decade. 22 | Chatham House Stefan Dercon, Chief Economist, DFID, speaking on ‘Fragile States, Capital Flight and Tax Havens’ at the launch in September 2013 of a Chatham House report on corruption and capital flight in Yemen. Yemen corruption and capital flight In Yemen: Corruption, Capital Flight and Global Drivers of Conflict, Chatham House experts examined Yemen’s precarious path towards political and economic reform. The report, published in September 2013, highlighted the obstacles to the country’s development posed by the interdependence of an elite-based political economy; outward capital flows, facilitated by international tax havens; and a looming resource crisis. Its launch brought together international donors and policy-makers to discuss the findings and promote a more careful analysis of Yemen’s political economy. The report was the culmination of a major, multi-year research project led by the Chatham House Yemen Forum, involving intensive fieldwork in the country, expert-level workshops, and detailed consultation with donor representatives, diplomats, defence ministries and civil society organizations. Far left: US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde during the meeting of G20 finance ministers and Central Bank governors in Sydney. Left: A Zimbabwean woman casts her ballot at a polling station in Domboshava, north of Harare. President Robert Mugabe’s win extended his 33-year grip on power. Below: A Yemeni artist works on graffiti against corruption, poverty, sectarian wars and the recruitment of child soldiers in the capital Sanaa. Chatham House | 23 Africa | Europe | Finance | G20 Economic interdependencies HE Otto Pérez Molina, President of Guatemala, speaking on ‘Guatemala: National Security and Regional Implications’ in May 2014. Latin America in the global economy Over the last decade, the economic growth rates for Latin America have been among the highest in the world. A major global producer of natural resources, the region saw its exports booming thanks to a favourable cycle in the world’s financial markets characterized by high commodity prices. Today, it has great economic potential to exploit further. However, Latin America’s performance in the near future might be constrained by excessive dependency on natural resources, as well as economic and social inequalities. It also risks getting stuck in the ‘middle-income trap’. In late 2013, the International Economics Department launched a new project to examine growth performance and to discuss future prospects across Latin America’s largest economies. The project focuses in particular on regional interdependencies and on the role of the region in the global economy. Building on partnerships with relevant institutions operating in Latin America, such as the Brazilian Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, the project has generated high-level debate on the region and greater awareness of its economic potential in the UK and the EU, while also engaging with key experts, policy-makers and business leaders from Latin America. Above: Daniela Carrera-Marquis, of the Inter-American Development Bank, speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative Latin America in Rio de Janeiro. Left: Demonstrators kick in wood panels blocking a bank location after tear gas was fired by the police to break up protests calling for better public education and services in Rio de Janeiro. 24 | Chatham House People Economic interdependencies Léonie Northedge Léonie Northedge is research associate with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. She has a BA in Arabic and Islamic Studies from Oxford University, and has lived in Damascus and Cairo. Ahmed Soliman Ahmed Soliman is a research assistant in the Africa Programme at Chatham House, coordinating the programme’s work on the Horn of Africa. His expertise spans Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan and South Sudan. Her research interests include the role of civil society in the Middle East, with a focus on Egypt and Yemen. Until recently, she managed the Yemen Forum, a flagship Chatham House project, and she co-authored the project’s concluding report Yemen: Corruption, Capital Flight and Global Drivers of Conflict, published in September 2013. In addition to research and publishing, his role includes expanding the Africa Programme’s network of experts and decision-makers, media interviews and outreach. He regularly meets with government officials, parliamentarians, opposition representatives, civil society actors, privatesector representatives and other policy influencers to discuss the trajectory of the region. He has spoken at events in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Europe. Davide Tentori Davide Tentori is a research associate in the International Economics Department at Chatham House. He holds an MSc in economics from the University of Essex and a PhD in institutions and policies from the Catholic University of Milan. His research interests include macroeconomic policies, trade and economic growth in the European Union and South America. His recent publications include the Chatham House briefing paper Breaking the Vicious Circle: Restoring Economic Growth and Flexibility in Italy, written with Paola Subacchi. His recent research has focused on the evolution of the transatlantic relationship, and he has managed a new series of roundtable events on key Latin American economies. Further reading: How to Fix the Euro: Strengthening Economic Governance in Europe, Stephen Pickford, Federico Steinberg and Miguel Otero-Iglesias (Chatham House, Elcano and AREL report) Chatham House | 25 Asia | Energy | Food | Water Resource futures Resource interdependencies, the shale gas revolution and saving oil and gas in the Gulf states are central research topics and build on Chatham House’s long-standing work in these areas. In particular, resource-importing countries face ongoing strategic challenges owing to the cost and uneven distribution of natural resources. Other important issues being addressed in the area of resource futures include food security and managing water in South Asia. Exploring resource interdependencies Natural resources remain abundant at the global level, but their uneven distribution and costs present a strategic challenge for resource-importing countries. While much can be done domestically to tackle inefficient resource use and its knock-on effects, many solutions increasingly require collaborative international approaches. After more than a decade of resource-intensive growth, China lies at the centre of a global web of resource-related interdependencies. Choices made by its leaders and companies over the next decade will have global implications for resource demand, prices and investment in production. The next phase of China’s development and urbanization will require sustainable solutions to challenges such as severe water scarcity, air pollution caused by coal combustion and vehicle emissions, and rising costs of imports of fossil 26 | Chatham House fuels, food and metals. China has sought greater resource security through investments in production overseas, but this confronts Chinese companies for the first time with managing complex, politically sensitive projects abroad. A new project on China’s resource interdependencies will formulate innovative and concrete policy proposals on how to adjust its development model, and how to strengthen its multilateral or bilateral engagement with global resource markets. This is a collaboration between the Energy, Environment and Resources Department at Chatham House and the Industrial Economy Department of the Development Research Centre of the State Council, a highly influential Chinese think-tank. The first workshop was held in Beijing in March 2014 with leading Chinese and international experts. Khalid al-Atiyah, Qatari Foreign Minister, speaking on ‘Qatar’s Foreign Policy’ in December 2013. Saving and valuing vital resources in the Gulf In August 2013, Chatham House published the report Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf, representing the culmination of two years’ research and workshops in the region that convened representatives of more than 60 local institutions with interests in and influence over domestic energy policy. The report argued that the systemic waste of oil and gas in the Gulf states erodes their resilience to economic shocks and increases security risks. It put forward recommendations to improve energy efficiency and to build on opportunities for regional cooperation. The report stimulated considerable debate and was widely quoted in Arabic and English media throughout the region. Since then, many Gulf states have launched new initiatives on efficiency and clean energy – although, as the report notes, keeping oil and gas conservation on their agenda will require sustained efforts. Subsequent work on vital resources seeks to develop understanding and build capacity within the region on the challenging question of valuation. This recognizes the interconnected challenges of water, food and energy security, and brings together regional stakeholders with an international network of experts in designing and implementing policies to revalue resources, such as reform of subsidies or water pricing. A final report on this work will include recommendations for how policy-makers can manage the challenging political economy of reform. The shale gas revolution Chatham House’s work in this area began in 2010 with the publication of The Shale Gas Revolution: Hype and Reality, followed by a briefing paper update to the report in August 2012, The Shale Gas Revolution: Developments and Changes. In the past year, based on this work, Professor Paul Stevens submitted evidence to the UK House of Commons Select Committee on Energy and Climate Change, and to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs. He also gave conference papers on the topic in London, Adelaide, Hong Kong, Mexico City, Muscat, Moscow, Milan, Perth and Tokyo, and wrote a number of op-eds for prominent newspapers in the United Kingdom, Australia and the United States. A Chatham House report on the ‘resource curse revisited’ will be published during 2014. Above: Anti-fracking demonstrators arrive at a protest camp established near a drill site in southern England, organized by ‘No Dash For Gas’ campaigners. Above left: A shopping mall in Abu Dhabi. Rapid changes in Gulf societies mean they have to develop strategies to conserve energy, and many Gulf states have launched new initiatives on efficiency and clean energy. Far left: Workers harvest lettuce at a vegetable factory in Kashiwa, Chiba – one of the largest in Japan. Chatham House | 27 Asia | Energy | Food | Water Resource futures Food security The impact of the report Managing Famine Risk, which was published in April 2013 and examined the challenges of responding to famine early warnings, continued throughout the year with a major dissemination programme. Seminars convening representatives of governments, humanitarian and donor agencies were held in London, Nairobi, Rome, Geneva, New York, Washington, Dakar and Jeddah. An influential briefing paper, Edible Oil, shone a spotlight on the precarious food security of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which typically import 80–90 per cent of their needs. It argued that, while oil and gas wealth mean the Gulf states are resilient to spikes in international food prices, they remain vulnerable to import disruptions. The principal risk is regional instability leading to the sustained closure of key choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, through which the majority of Gulf food imports passes. Storage of strategic commodities such as wheat and the diversification and development of port infrastructure can help manage this risk. The paper argued, however, that strategies to subsidize domestic production or acquire farmland in developing countries could prove expensive while doing little to bolster food security. Managing water resources in South Asia India and Pakistan are already water-stressed, and population growth will further reduce water availability per person in the years to come. For the past 18 months, the Asia Programme has been researching attitudes towards domestic water management and transboundary water issues in five countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. Working with five local partners, the project aimed to explore the reasons for the disconnect between policy and practice, the implications of the increased securitization of water discourse in South Asia and the scale of the challenge as seen by policy-makers. In June 2014, the resulting report drew on almost 500 interviews with decision-makers from government, academia, civil society and the private sector. It highlighted differences in approach to water issues in each country as well as attitudes towards upstream and downstream neighbours. The report made a series of recommendations; if domestic water management is not improved, the implications for internal and international stability will be stark. Despite the significant challenges involved, there is substantial scope for cross-border learning to shift perceptions of water from a zero-sum resource to a resource providing mutual benefit. Falling per capita water availability Total renewable water resources per capita (actual) (m3/person/year) Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Definition of water stress 20,000 15,000 10,000 Above: A commercial ship passes through the entrance to the Suez Canal. There has been concern over the vulnerability of vessels to terrorist attack in one of the world’s potential food choke points. 28 | Chatham House 5,000 0 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 Source FAO, Aquastat (from Attitudes to Water in South Asia). 2002 2007 2012 People Resource futures Water usage by sector (%) Bangladesh 87.8 10.0 2.2 247 Nepal 90.4 7.4 2.2 630 India 98.2 1.5 0.3 359 Pakistan 94.0 5.3 0.7 1,096 Agriculture Household Industry Annual water withdrawal per inhabitant (m3) Source: UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Aquastat (from Attitudes to Water in South Asia). Rob Bailey Rob Bailey is acting research director for the Energy, Environment and Resources Department at Chatham House. Prior to joining the institute, he was head of economic justice at Oxfam. His expertise includes food security, sustainable agriculture, climate change and adaptation, and biofuels. He has published extensively in these areas, including during the past year: Managing the Political Economy of Low Carbon Development; Edible Oil: Food Security in the Gulf; and Ending Deforestation: Policy Options for Consumer Countries. He has an MSc in development studies from the London School of Economics and an MA in natural sciences from the University of Cambridge. In 2011, he was named one of the Devex ‘40 Under 40’ international development leaders in London. Glada Lahn Glada Lahn is a senior research fellow in the Energy, Environment and Resources Department at Chatham House. Since joining the institute in 2004, she has worked on a range of international energy projects, including establishing the Fossil Fuels Expert Roundtable series in 2008. More recently, she has worked on domestic energy, water management and pricing, and climate policy with partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Prior to working at Chatham House, she was senior research fellow at the Gulf Center for Strategic Studies and also worked as a freelance consultant on Middle East political and economic issues. She has a BA in Arabic and international relations and an MA in near and Middle Eastern studies from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. Further reading: Saving Oil and Gas in the Gulf, Glada Lahn, Paul Stevens and Felix Preston Chatham House | 29 Armed Conflict | Health | Human Rights Law and governance The evolution of international law and new systems of global governance are a core focus of Chatham House research. Over the past year, this has included studies on the classification of conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon; conflict and coexistence in the relationship between host governments and the extractive industries; the international implications of the theft of crude oil from Nigeria; and forest governance and illegal logging. Chatham House also held a major conference and published two reports on global health governance and financing. International law and armed conflict International law, if it is adhered to, plays a critical role in mitigating the risks posed by armed conflict for civilians and combatants. The International Law Programme has begun work on a project to produce an unofficial manual for the armed forces on how international human rights law affects the conduct of military operations overseas. The need for such guidance stems from recent decisions of the European Court of Human Rights and other international courts, which have led to a re-examination of how human rights law applies in situations of armed conflict as opposed to peacetime. Most of the crimes currently prosecuted by the international courts and tribunals occurred during armed conflicts. The programme’s series of meetings on ‘Milestones in International Criminal Law’ allows analysis 30 | Chatham House and discussion of significant cases. Armed conflicts were also a recurrent theme of the International Law Discussion Group, which brings together legal experts, policy-makers, academics and civil society representatives. Over the last year, they have addressed, among other topics, the legality of military intervention on humanitarian grounds in Syria and challenges in implementing the Global Arms Trade Treaty. The programme also convened a workshop on the situations in Syria, Yemen and Libya. The workshop, attended by legal and country experts, focused on the legal classification of these conflicts – a crucial assessment in determining which legal standards govern the conduct of the parties involved. The workshop discussions were summarized in a paper, The Legal Classification of the Armed Conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Libya. Dominic Grieve QC MP, Attorney General, UK, discusses ‘Britain and the International Rule of Law’ at an event in July 2013. China and international human rights Given its growing economic power and permanent membership of the UN Security Council, China’s approach to the international human rights system is likely to have significant implications for the future of this system in a multipolar world. A 2012 report on China and the International Human Rights System, authored by Sonya Sceats with Shaun Breslin, associate fellows in the International Law and Asia Programme respectively, presented ground-breaking research on China’s participation in the UN human rights system and revealed a range of perspectives on these issues among experts inside China. A four-day roundtable meeting was held in April 2014 to create a platform for Chinese international law academics working in this area to present their thinking and exchange ideas with counterparts from other countries, as well as to build stronger understanding within the wider international law community of debates in China about the human rights system and China’s role within it. A second roundtable is planned for later in the year in Beijing. Elham Saudi, Director, Lawyers for Justice, Libya, speaking on ‘Libya’s Future: Constitution, National Dialogue and the Security Challenge’ in April 2014. Legal norms and economic development in the Gulf states Understanding the legal norms that underpin the political and business structures of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is crucial for the continuing development of economic and business ties between the GCC and Western states, especially as they build new energy relations with emerging Asian economies. Through its ‘Future Trends in the Gulf States’ project, the MENA Programme undertakes research and analysis on scenarios for their political and economic development. The workshop summary ‘Law and Citizenship in the GCC’ examined the evolving legal landscape in the Gulf countries, and the role of domestic politics and international norms in spurring legal changes there. Bringing together the views of prominent academics, civil society representatives, entrepreneurs, journalists and bloggers from GCC states, it offered an insight into the regional thinking on international legal norms, human rights, censorship, constitutional development and citizenship. It also examined the legal environment affecting business and corporations in the Gulf states. Above: Wang Yi, China’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, votes on a resolution regarding Syria’s chemical weapons programme at a UN Security Council meeting. Right: Saudi officials and businessmen attend the Euromoney conference in May 2014 in Riyadh. The two-day conference focused on Saudi Arabia’s economy and financial system. Left: Syrian residents inspect heavily damaged buildings in June 2014 in the northern city of Aleppo. Chatham House | 31 Armed Conflict | Health | Human Rights Law and governance Resource governance and crude oil theft from Nigeria As many African states undertake simultaneous significant processes of change through democratization, economic growth and diversifying international relations, the Africa research output and outreach of the Africa Programme inform decision-making globally in support of an environment of transparency, accountability and the rule of law. The programme has a strong thread of ongoing work on society and resource governance, and regards strengthening institutions and transparency as a means to foster more equitable transformative growth and to undercut challenges relating to corruption. Among the 2013 publications was the report Nigeria’s Criminal Crude: International Options to Combat the Export of Stolen Oil by Christina Katsouris and Aaron Sayne. This was the first comprehensive, rigorously researched independent report on the theft of crude oil for export from Nigeria. The report informs decision-makers in Nigeria and internationally on how oil is stolen, the likely shape of theft networks, and likely destinations and impacts. It highlights critical gaps in information and the best policy options as steps towards addressing this specific type of transnational organized crime. The publication was widely reported by the Nigerian and international media, and discussed with government officials, oil companies and other private-sector stakeholders, and civil society actors, to raise the visibility of the issue and its consequences in a balanced and informed way. Above: Nigeria’s Minister of Petroleum Resources Diezani Alison-Madueke (right) answers journalists at the 164th OPEC meeting in Vienna. Right: An aerial view shows an open pit at the Batu Hijau copper and gold mine in Sumbawa, West Nusa Tenggara province, Indonesia. 32 | Chatham House Far right: Children sitting on logs on the outskirts of Yangon, Myanmar (Burma). Demand for precious hardwoods is threatening rare species and helping to drive deforestation in one of the last major areas of tropical forest in Asia. Conflict and coexistence in the extractive industries Extractive industries around the world are facing fresh challenges in ever more complex operating environments. A decade of high prices and fast-growing global demand has raised expectations among stakeholder communities, host governments and investors. At the same time, mineral and hydrocarbons production increasingly takes place in geologically, ecologically and politically challenging regions. A series of bitter disputes has unsettled investors and global markets, and has drawn attention to the fragile and complex relationship between companies and host governments. In November 2013, Chatham House launched a major report on Conflict and Coexistence in the Extractive Industries. This summarized the results of more than two years of research by experts in the Energy, Environment and Resources Department as well as in several regional programmes. The report argues that disputes about extractives projects are set to escalate in many producer countries, and, if poorly managed, could endanger not only companies’ assets and reputations but also the economic and political stability of the countries concerned. The report calls on international investors and governments to engage at an early stage with a wider range of stakeholders, conduct industry-wide joint longterm planning, intensify cooperation to raise governance standards, and adapt the way in which contracts are drawn up. The report was welcomed by experts and policymakers at events in London, Brussels and Wilton Park, and generated significant coverage in mainstream and specialist media, including the Financial Times, Reuters and CNBC Africa. From left: Professor Paul Stevens, Distinguished Fellow, Energy, Environment and Resources Department, Chatham House; Francis Egan, Chief Executive, Cuadrilla Resources; The Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP, Minister of State for Energy, Department of Energy & Climate Change; and Joe Lynam, Business Journalist, BBC, at an event on ‘A Shale Gas Revolution for the UK?’ in April 2014. Forest governance and illegal logging Recent analysis by Chatham House has revealed continued and widespread illegality in the global timber trade, although the efforts of the EU, through its Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade Action Plan, are beginning to have an effect. Chatham House is considering future policy options for the EU to support the forthcoming review of its approach to this issue. The Energy, Environment and Resources Department has also organized a series of workshops for enforcement agencies to encourage greater effectiveness and coordination in the implementation of EU legislation on illegal timber. In addition, the department convened a high-level expert roundtable for UK and Indonesian government agencies and financial intelligence units as a means to foster improved cooperation in tackling financial crime in the forest sector. As pressure on land and the demand for resources continue to grow, agriculture is emerging as the greatest driver of deforestation. The department continues to look at ways to reduce deforestation resulting from exploitation for agricultural commodities, including palm oil, beef and soy. Research into policy options to reduce the environmental footprint of agricultural production will be a priority for Chatham House over the coming years. Chatham House’s work on forest governance and illegal logging is funded by the UK Department for International Development as part of its Forest Governance, Markets and Climate programme. It is a pleasure to be here today, to discuss Britain and the international rule of law. It is particularly appropriate to be addressing this subject in this place, famed throughout the world for its own rule, for its contributions to the development of the rule of law, and for providing a congenial environment for so many politicians and practitioners to take stock and consider the future development of the concept. Dominic Grieve QC MP, Attorney General, UK July 2013 Chatham House | 33 Armed Conflict | Health | Human Rights Law and governance Global health governance and financing Following a major conference at Chatham House in December 2011 to mark the tenth anniversary of the report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, the Centre on Global Health Security launched two highlevel working groups, composed of representatives from governments, international agencies, academia and civil society, to examine critical issues in global health governance and financing respectively. The working group on governance considered ideas about reform of the World Health Organization (WHO) beyond those discussed in the agency’s ongoing internal process. It focused in particular on the WHO’s functions, its global role as a technical agency and a policy-making body, its governance and structure, and its financing. The financing working group focused on the measures that need to be taken by countries and the global community to provide sustainable financing for health Amina Mohammed, Special Adviser on Post 2015 Development, UN Secretariat, speaking at a conference on ‘International Cooperation in the 21st Century: Partnerships for Delivering the Post-2015 Agenda’ in May 2014. services, including strengthening domestic and external financing and moving towards a global agreement on sustainable financing, including as part of the post-2015 development agenda. The working groups led to the publication of two reports in May 2014, What’s the World Health Organization For? and Shared Responsibilities for Health: A Coherent Global Framework for Health Financing, which were launched in Geneva. The Centre on Global Health Security is also planning further launches of the reports, one in Japan (for the Asian region) and another around the deliberations of the United Nations General Assembly and the post-2015 development agenda. The two years of work that culminated in these two reports will also be continued in further projects on ‘Universal Health Coverage’ and the ‘Global Health Architecture’. World Health Organization DirectorGeneral Margaret Chan (front right) speaks in a panel discussion about ‘antimicrobial resistance’ in Geneva, Switzerland. 34 | Chatham House People Law and governance Left to right: Professor Alison Holmes, Imperial College; Professor David Heymann, Head and Senior Fellow, Centre on Global Health Security; Professor Richard Smith, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Osman Dar, Consultant Research Fellow, Centre on Global Health Security; and Armand Sprecher MD MPH, Médecins Sans Frontières, discussing ‘Ebola and Emerging Infectious Diseases: Measuring the Risk’ in May 2014. Ruma Mandal Ruma Mandal is a senior research fellow in the International Law Programme at Chatham House. She has worked on international law issues with the UK government (as a legal adviser in the Foreign & Commonwealth Office) and with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Her expertise includes international refugee law and international human rights law. Her work has involved the drafting of UNHCR guidelines on critical areas of international law relevant to the protection of refugees and stateless persons, litigation at the European Court of Human Rights and the negotiation of UN and EU legal instruments. She became a member of the Bar after reading law at the University of Cambridge. Kevin Outterson Professor Kevin Outterson is a visiting fellow in the Centre on Global Health Security at Chatham House. He teaches health and corporate law at Boston University, where he co-directs the Health Law Programme. He is editor-in-chief of the Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics; past chair of the Section on Law, Medicine & Health Care of the Association of American Law Schools; and a member of the Board of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics. He blogs on health policy issues. His research focuses on the organization and finance of the health sector, including global pharmaceutical markets, particularly antimicrobials. Ruma’s appointment forms part of the International Law Programme’s expansion, facilitated by support from the Oak Foundation. Further reading: What’s the World Health Organization For? Dr Charles Clift Chatham House | 35 Honorary Treasurer’s Report year to 31 March 2014 Chatham House had another challenging year financially in 2013/14, as it experienced the full-year impact of having taken a ten-year lease on the second floor of Ames House (next door to the Chatham House building in Duke of York Street) in 2012/13. However, the overall net surplus for 2013/14 was £1,071,000, mainly as a result of growth in research income which reached £7,448,000, an increase of 41% over the previous year. This increase includes the annual adjustment to grant income as a result of implementing the Charities SORP which requires us to recognize revenues as they are received, rather than when they are spent. Research costs, as in 2012/13, increased by 15%, reflecting continuing investment in the expansion of capacity across all the research departments/programmes. Membership subscriptions of £2,176,000 continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than last year. Conferences enjoyed a successful year as a result of a restructuring, further investment in resources and a change away from organizing international roundtables to focusing purely on organizing large conferences. Revenues increased by 27%, with the overall surplus nearly doubling to £400,000 as it generated stronger returns from virtually all the conferences held in the year. Income from publications was again flat with the small increase in revenues from The World Today offsetting those from International Affairs. Income from fundraising and donations rose significantly, mainly owing to continued expansion of the William Pitt Group, and was helped by the implementation of a new tiered structure to reflect the increasing donation levels. Expenditure on membership, meetings, the library, communications and publications increased by 20% to £2,263,000. This was mainly due to further investment in order to continue to meet the expanding needs of the institute, particularly in supporting the increased fundraising activities, development of a new website, the expansion of its digital content and publications. Support costs, net of recharges to the research programmes, increased by 14%, primarily as a result of the occupation of the second floor of Ames House at full rent and for a full year. Investment income increased sharply over the previous year to £356,000. This included the increase in rental income from the ground floor of Ames House for the full year, from £28,000 to £173,000. Cash, partly in shortterm deposits, increased by £952,000 during the year to 36 | Chatham House £3,937,000, helped by an inflow from the positive operating performance and tight working capital management. However, the average return on cash and short-term deposits averaged only 0.5% compared with 1.8% the year before. As a result non-cash investments of £796,000 were made during the year to increase yield, and at the year-end Chatham House held non-cash investments with a market value of £5,881,000, compared with £5,095,000 as at 31 March 2013. The small overall loss on investments reflected the drop in value of the emerging-market investments, partially offset by the increase in value of UK/global funds, and corresponded with the different market fortunes of each type of investment. In respect of Ames House, a portion of the two loans taken out last year to help in the purchase of the ground floor was partially repaid during the year, reducing the outstanding total balances from £3,500,000 to £2,667,000. During the year the institute extended the lease on the basement to 999 years at a cost of £20,000. The institute still retains two ten-year leases (with five-year, tenant-only breaks) for the first and second floors, along with five-year options to acquire 999-year leases for either or both of these floors. Total net assets as at 31 March 2014, excluding the value of Chatham House itself, were £11,154,000, compared with £10,083,000 as at 31 March 2013 – an increase of 10%. The investments in the various lease acquisitions in Ames House have increased the financial commitments of the institute and these will continue to impact on the operating performance in the short term. However, arrangements are now firmly in place, with the establishment of the Second Century Initiative, to actively pursue a fundraising strategy with the aim of paying down the short-term loans and providing a sustainable financial reserve through endowments and other donations so that the institute can continue to grow and prosper into its second century. Ed Smith Financial headlines year to 31 March 2014 Total net assets at year-end* 2014 (£’000s) 2013 (£’000s) 11,154 10,083 % incr Income Membership subscriptions 2,176 2,084 4% Research 7,448 5,286 41% Conferences 1,253 984 27% Investment return 356 238 50% Publications 517 518 0% Fundraising and donations 789 670 18% Other 227 65 249% 12,766 9,845 6,612 5,741 15% 853 779 9% Membership, meetings, library, communications and publications 2,263 1,891 20% Support costs net of recharges to research 1,957 1,720 14% 11,685 10,131 1,081 (286) (10) 498 1,071 212 952 (1,658) Expenditure Research Conferences Operational net income / (deficit) Net investment (losses) / gains Net surplus for the year Net cash inflow / (outflow) for the year *The Institute owns the freehold of Chatham House, the full value of which is not included in these figures. The Financial Headlines are extracted from the full unqualified audited group accounts, a copy of which is available to members on the website at www.chathamhouse.org. Alternatively copies may be obtained from Rhona Moir, Executive Assistant to the Finance Director, on telephone number +44 (0)20 7957 5700 or email rmoir@chathamhouse.org. Copies will also be available at the Annual General Meeting. Chatham House | 37 Patron, Presidents and Council at 30 June 2014 Panel of Senior Advisers and individual supporters at 30 June 2014 Patron Her Majesty The Queen Presidents Rt Hon Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon GCMG KBE PC Rt Hon Sir John Major KG, CH Rt Hon Baroness Scotland QC Council Stuart Popham QC Chairman; Executive Committee; Finance Committee Vice Chairman EMEA Banking, Citigroup; former Senior Partner, Clifford Chance LLP Rt Hon Sir Roderic Lyne KCMG Deputy Chairman, Executive Committee Member of the Iraq Inquiry Committee; Non-Executive Director, Petropavlovsk plc and JPMorgan Bank International Ed Smith Hon Treasurer (ex-officio); Executive Committee; Finance Committee; Investment Committee Chairman, WWF-UK; Chairman, University of Birmingham Deputy Chairman, NHS England Dr Mohammed Abdel-Haq Finance Committee; Investment Committee Businessman and Academic Greg Baxter Global Head of Digital Strategy, Citigroup – New York. Former Partner and UK Board member at Booz & Company Alistair Burnett Editor of The World Tonight, BBC R4 Ryan Gawn Director, Stratagem International; Head of International Communications, ActionAid International; former Strategic Campaigns Advisor, Department for International Development – Pakistan; former Strategic Communications Advisor, Foreign & Commonwealth Office, British High Commission, Pakistan; former Director EMEA of Penn, Schoen & Berland Martin Giles US Technology Correspondent, The Economist Sir Jeremy Greenstock GCMG Chairman, UN Association-UK; Chairman, Gatehouse Advisory Partners Ltd; Chairman, Lambert Energy Advisory Ltd; UK Ambassador to the UN (1998–2003) Sir Richard Lambert Lead non-executive, Foreign & Commonwealth Office Supervisory Board; Chairman, Banking Standards Review Council Chancellor, University of Warwick Director-General, CBI (2006–11) 38 | Chatham House Panel of Senior Advisers Bronwen Maddox Editor and Chief Executive, Prospect Publishing; Chief Foreign Commentator, The Times (2006–10) Peter Montagnon Finance Committee Associate Director, Institute of Business Ethics Former Senior Investment Adviser, Financial Reporting Council Vincent Neate Partner at KPMG – London; Chairman, Fight for Peace UK Limited; Trustee of From Babies with Love Limited Alastair Newton Executive Committee Senior Political Analyst, Nomura International plc Barbara Ridpath Director, St. Paul’s Institute; Non-Executive Director of National Australia Group Europe Stuart Sinclair Finance Committee Non-Executive Director, Pru-Health, Provident Financial, TSB, QBE, Swinton Xan Smiley Middle East and North Africa editor, The Economist Robert Woodthorpe Browne MBE Chairman, International Relations Committee, Liberal Democrats; Treasurer, Bureau of Liberal International; CEO, Robert Browne and Partners Limited – International Reinsurance Consultants, Board Member, British German Association Caroline Wyatt BBC Defence Correspondent The Panel of Senior Advisers was founded in 2008 to provide Chatham House with an experienced sounding board for our policy conclusions and help communicate our ideas at the highest levels in the UK and abroad. Chairman: Rt Hon Sir John Major KG, CH UK Prime Minister (1990–97) Ayman Asfari Group Chief Executive, Petrofac Ltd Shumeet Banerji Non-Executive Director, Hewlett-Packard; Chief Executive Officer, Booz & Company (2008–12) Lord Browne of Madingley President, Royal Academy of Engineering; Chief Executive, BP (1995–2007) R Nicholas Burns Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics, John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US Department of State (2005–08); US Ambassador to NATO (2001–05) Victor Chu Chairman, First Eastern Investment Group, Hong Kong Tim Clark Senior Adviser to G3 and Fleming Family & Partners Lord Davies of Abersoch CBE Partner and Vice Chairman, Corsair Capital; Minister for Trade and Industry (2009–10) Ian Davis Chairman, Rolls-Royce; Non-Executive Director, BP and Johnson & Johnson; former Chairman and Worldwide Managing Director, McKinsey (2003–09) Suzan Sabancı Dinçer CBE Chairman and Executive Board Member, Akbank Mary Francis CBE Non-Executive Director, Centrica plc and Swiss Reinsurance Company; Director, Bank of England (2001–07) Dame Clara Furse DBE External Member, Financial Policy Committee, Bank of England; Non-Executive Director, Nomura Holdings, Amadeus IT Holdings and Department for Work and Pensions, UK James Gaggero Chairman, Bland Group Ltd André Hoffmann Vice-Chairman, Board of Roche Holding Ltd Rt Hon Lord Hurd of Westwell UK Foreign Secretary (1989–95) Lord Jay of Ewelme Permanent Under-Secretary, Foreign Office (2002–06) Sir Paul Judge Chairman, Schroder Income Growth Fund plc; Alderman, City of London President’s Circle William Pitt Group Dame DeAnne Julius DCMG, CBE Independent Non-Executive Director of Deloitte (UK), Roche Holdings SA (Switzerland) and Jones Lang LaSalle (USA); former Chairman, Chatham House (2003–12) The President’s Circle comprises individuals who enable Chatham House to undertake major initiatives, including the Academy for Leadership in International Affairs, research fellowships, new research streams and cross-institutional collaboration. The William Pitt Group, founded in 2009, comprises individuals committed to the success of the institute, and whose philanthropic support strengthens the institute’s independence. Nemir Kirdar Founder, Executive Chairman and CEO, Investcorp Ayman Asfari Caio Koch-Weser Vice Chairman, Deutsche Bank Group; Deputy Finance Minister for Germany (1999–2005) Tim Bunting Hon Marc E Leland President, Marc E Leland and Associates, USA; Co-Chairman, German Marshall Fund of the United States André Hoffmann Rachel Lomax Non-Executive Director, HSBC and Heathrow Airport Holdings; Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy, the Bank of England (2003–08) Celia and Edward Atkin CBE Richard Hayden John C Whitehead Director’s Circle Support from members of the Director’s Circle allows the director to invest in timely and innovative research and thought leadership. Sir David Manning GCMG CVO British Ambassador to the United States (2003–07); foreign affairs and defence adviser to Prime Minister Tony Blair (2001–03) Garvin Brown IV Dame Judith Mayhew Jonas DBE Trustee, The Imperial War Museum; Chairman, New West End Company Sir Evelyn de Rothschild Lubna Olayan Deputy Chairperson and CEO, Olayan Financing Company, Saudi Arabia Dr Carlos Bulgheroni Victor Chu Michael Hoffman Timothy Jones Nemir Kirdar Hon Marc E Leland Vahid Alaghband David Archer Petr Aven Amit Bhatia Pierre-Henri Denain Glenn Earle Ambassador Edward E Elson Louis G Elson Martin Fraenkel Stephen Freidheim Richard Karl Goeltz Alexis Habib Hon John G Heimann Sir Joseph Hotung KBE Farid Issa-El-Khoury Reuben Jeffery III Huw Jenkins Hadi Kabalan Donald Kramer Sir Michael Rake Chairman, BT and EasyJet Chris Rokos Lord Robertson of Port Ellen Secretary General, NATO (1999–2003); UK Defence Secretary (1997–99) Lionel Curtis Group Martin Lovegrove Through their ongoing philanthropic commitment, individuals that comprise the Lionel Curtis Group offer discretionary support to the institute’s core research activities − ensuring its independence from any one funding source or agenda. Roni Lovegrove The Al Swaidi family Morgan McKenney Gavin Boyle Maryfrances Metrick Andrés Rozental Former Mexican diplomat; founding president of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations; Chairman of ArcelorMittal Mexico; non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Kevin Rudd Prime Minister of Australia (2007–10, 2013); Minister for Foreign Affairs (2010–12) Daniel Sachs Chief Executive Officer, Proventus AB Ron Sandler CBE Adviser, Palamon Capital Partners; former Executive Chairman of Northern Rock, Chief Operating Officer of NatWest Group and Chief Executive of Lloyd’s of London John C Whitehead Founding Chairman, Lower Manhattan Development Corporation, USA; former Co-Chairman of Goldman Sachs Andrew E Law Richard Bram Stephen Brenninkmeijer Sir Trevor Chinn CVO Helen L Freeman Ronald M Freeman Luciano Gobbi Bernard Groveman Charles M Hale Kaaren Hale Sara Burch Khairallah Karim Khairallah Monika Machon Jolana Vainio Dr Petri Vainio Michael R Lynch Stephen Marquardt Elizabeth McCaul David Pearl Stuart Popham QC Paul Rivlin Caspar Romer Simon Rowlands Jacob M Safra Horacio Sánchez Caballero Ron Sandler CBE Dr Allen Sangines-Krause Rafael Serrano Richard W Slocum Kit Tamkin Robert Tomei Pedro J Torres John Vogelstein Gareth Williams Roger Wolf Chatham House | 39 Financial Support 2013–14 Partners (at 30 June 2014) Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway DBJ Europe Limited Akbank National Intelligence Council, United States of America Debevoise and Plimpton LLP Asfari Foundation Nomura Foundation Delonex Energy North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Headquarters Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada Open Society Foundations Department of Health, UK Prudential plc Department of National Defence, Canada Revenue Watch Institute Diageo Rockefeller Foundation Doughty Street Chambers Skoll Global Threats Fund Eaton Vance Management Smith Richardson Foundation Elcano Royal Institute Stavros Niarchos Foundation Eni SpA European Bank for Reconstruction & Development JETRO London Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency MAVA Foundation Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation Ministry of Defence, UK United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs BG Group BP plc Chevron Ltd Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi Department for International Development, UK European Commission ExxonMobil Corporation Finmeccanica Foreign & Commonwealth Office, UK Ministry of Foreign Affairs, United Arab Emirates Nippon Foundation Oak Foundation Robert Bosch Foundation United Nations Trust Facility Supporting Cooperation on Arms Regulation United States Agency for International Development United States Institute for Peace European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries & Associations European Forest Institute Federal Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Austria Forest Trends GlaxoSmithKline GPW Hess Corporation Royal Dutch Shell Statoil Research Supporters HgCapital Toshiba Corporation ActionAid UK Horacio Sanchez-Caballero Total Holdings UK Ltd African Barrick Gold plc Humanity United AIG Property Casualty International Monetary Fund Al Tajir Trust IrishAid Alaco Ltd Japan Institute of International Affairs Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Japan Petroleum Exploration Co Ltd Anglo American plc JX Arab Stabilization Plan Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Areva SA Korea International Cooperation Agency Association of Italian Banks KPMG LLP AstraZeneca plc Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Science Atlantic Partnership Lockheed Martin UK Banco Africano de Investimentos Lonrho plc Bank of England Lowy Institute for International Policy Bechtel Ltd Macquarie Group Bovicor Marathon Oil Corporation Bowland Trust Matthew Hurlock Brazilian Development Bank Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Finland British Academy Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Sweden British Council Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lithuania BTG Pactual Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Netherlands Key Project Sponsors Atkin Foundation Bank of America Merrill Lynch BHP Billiton International Services Ltd Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation British Red Cross Catholic Organisation for Relief and Development Aid Charities Aid Foundation Climate & Development Knowledge Network Climate and Land Use Alliance Commonwealth Secretariat Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia Disasters Emergency Committee Economic and Social Research Council, UK Embassy of the United States of America, London EPOCH Foundation Eranda Foundation European Parliament Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Switzerland Federal Environment Agency, Germany John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation Korea Foundation Ministry of Finance, Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Netherlands 40 | Chatham House Centre for Low Carbon Futures Charles Hale Chubu Electric Power Co Inc Client Earth Clifford Chance LLP ConocoPhillips Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited Mitsubishi Corporation Mitsui & Co Europe plc Morgan Stanley Nedbank Ltd Noble Energy Inc Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre Norwegian Refugee Council The Olayan Group FTI Consulting Ltd Aspen Insurance UK Limited Overseas Development Institute GlaxoSmithKline AstraZeneca plc Pension Insurance Corporation Ltd Goldman Sachs International Avio Group Petrofac Herbert Smith Freehills LLP Aviva Raytheon HSBC Holdings plc AXA Investment Managers Rio Tinto plc Huawei Technologies Banca d’Italia Robert Bosch Limited Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Royal Navy RWE Dea AG Singapore National University Standard Bank Plc Standard Chartered Bank StormHarbour Securities LLP Sustainable Europe Research Institute TRAFFIC International Trans European Policy Studies Association Tullow Oil plc UNESCO Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore US Department of Defense White Rose Energy Ventures William Rice Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Japan Bank for International Cooperation Jones Lang LaSalle KPMG LLP Kuwait Petroleum Corporation LetterOne Libra Group Linklaters Lockheed Martin UK Marsh MetLife Mitsubishi Corporation Morgan Stanley Natixis Nomura International plc Major Corporate Members Oliver Wyman (at 30 June 2014) PricewaterhouseCoopers Accenture Rabobank International AIG Asset Management Raytheon Amsterdam & Partners Rio Tinto plc Atkins Royal Bank of Scotland BAE Systems plc Santander Bank of America Merrill Lynch Saudi Petroleum Overseas Ltd Barclays Schlumberger Limited BBC Standard Chartered Bank BHP Billiton International Services Ltd Stroz Friedberg Bloomberg Sumitomo Corporation British American Tobacco Tesco British Army Thomson Reuters BT Group plc United States of America, Embassy of the Caxton Asset Management Vodafone Group Citi Bell Pottinger BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd Bland Group Ltd British Council Boeing UK Cabinet Office CBS News CDC Group plc Chivas Brothers Chubb Investment Services Ltd Chubu Electric Power Co Inc Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP CLP Holdings Limited Coller Capital Commonwealth Parliamentary Association Commonwealth Secretariat Consolidated Contractors International (UK) Ltd Crown Agents CRU International Ltd Daily Mail and General Trust plc Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP De Beers Group Services UK Ltd De La Rue plc Delonex Energy Department of Health, UK Diageo Diplomatic Academy of Montenegro DP World Energy Charter Secretariat Energy Industries Council Energy Intelligence Group ES-KO Eurasia Group City of London Corporate Members (at 30 June 2014) Clifford Chance LLP Afren CME Group africapractice Control Risks Airbus Group Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, UK AKE Ltd Dexion Capital Albany Associates (International) Ltd DTCC (The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) Allen & Overy LLP General Secretariat of the Council of the European Union The Economist Anglo American plc Genesis Investment Management LLP Eni SpA APCO Worldwide The Group Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer ArcelorMittal The Guardian European Bank for Reconstruction & Development European Investment Bank European Parliament UK Office First Magazine G3 Good Governance Group Asahi Shimbun (Europe) Chatham House | 41 Financial Support 2013–14 HM Treasury Prudential plc Ecuador, Embassy of Hong Kong Economic & Trade Office Quakers in Britain Egypt, Embassy of the Arab Republic of House of Commons Library Risk Advisory Group El Salvador, Embassy of House of Lords Library Rolls-Royce plc Estonia, Embassy of the Republic of Indorama Services UK Ltd RSA Insurance INPEX Salamanca Risk Management Ethiopia, Embassy of the Federal Democratic Republic of International Institute for Environment and Development Sarasin & Partners LLP Investcorp International Ltd Investec Asset Management Invoke Capital ITN Jaguar Land Rover SCA, Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget Schroders Plc Scottish Government Shearman & Sterling LLP Standard Life Group Strategy& Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) Sullivan & Cromwell LLP JICA UK Office Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe Limited JKX Oil & Gas John Swire & Sons Ltd KOKUSAI Asset Management Co Ltd Kosmos Energy Kroll Krull Corp Kuwait Investment Office Kyodo News League of Arab States Macquarie Group Marathon Oil Corporation Maritime Asset Security & Training Ltd Matheson & Co Ltd Finland, Embassy of France, Embassy of Georgia, Embassy of Germany, Embassy of the Federal Republic of Gibraltar, Government of Greece, Embassy of Hungary, Embassy of India, High Commission of Indonesia, Embassy of the Republic of Iraq, Embassy of the Republic of Tata Ltd Ireland, Embassy of Telegraph Media Group Israel, Embassy of Thales Italy, Embassy of Tishman Speyer Japan, Embassy of Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Jordan, Embassy of the Hashemite Kingdom of Towers Watson Kazakhstan, Embassy of the Republic of Tullow Oil plc Korea, Embassy of the Republic of UBS Kuwait, Embassy of the State of Vitol Latvia, Embassy of the Republic of Warburg Pincus LLC Libya, Embassy of the State of Wilton Park Lithuania, Embassy of the Republic of Wood Mackenzie Luxembourg, Embassy of Yomiuri Shimbun Macedonia, Embassy of the Republic of Milbank Malta, High Commission of Mitsui & Co Europe plc Embassy and High Commission Members (at 30 June 2014) Mizuho Bank Algeria, Embassy of Mongolia, Embassy of Mondelez International Argentine Republic, Embassy of the Morocco, Embassy of the Kingdom of Mondi Group Armenia, Embassy of the Republic of Mozambique, High Commission for the Republic of NEPAD Secretariat Australia, High Commission of Netherlands, Embassy of the Kingdom of the Nexen Petroleum UK Ltd Austria, Embassy of New Zealand, High Commission of NHK Japan Broadcasting Corporation Azerbaijan, Embassy of the Republic of Norway, Royal Embassy of NIKKEI Inc Bahrain, Embassy of the Kingdom of Oman, Embassy of the Sultanate of Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre Belgium, Embassy of The Olayan Group Belize, High Commission of Pakistan, High Commission for the Islamic Republic of oltreradio.it Brazil, Embassy of Poland, Embassy of the Republic of Orrick Bulgaria, Embassy of the Republic of Portugal, Embassy of Permira Advisers LLP Canada, High Commission of Qatar, Embassy of the State of Petrofac Energy Developments Chile, Embassy of Romania, Embassy of polestarglobal.com China, Embassy of the People’s Republic of Russian Federation, Embassy of the Polish Institute of Diplomacy Costa Rica, Embassy of Rwanda, High Commission for the Republic of Pool Re Cyprus, High Commission for the Republic of Saint Kitts & Nevis, High Commission of Powerscourt Czech Republic, Embassy of the Saudi Arabia, Embassy of the Royal Kingdom of Premier Oil Denmark, Royal Embassy of Serbia, Embassy of the Republic of Protection Group International Dominican Republic, Embassy of the Seychelles, High Commission of the Republic of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Europe Ltd 42 | Chatham House Mexico, Embassy of Moldova, Embassy of the Republic of Sierra Leone, High Commission of Regent’s College – European Business School Rt Hon Lord Howe of Aberavon CH PC QC Singapore, High Commission for the Republic of Richmond University – The American International University in London Matt Huber Slovak Republic, Embassy of the Slovenia, Embassy of the Republic of South Africa, High Commission for the Republic of Spain, Embassy of Sudan, Embassy of the Republic of Sweden, Embassy of Switzerland, Embassy of Tanzania, High Commission of the United Republic of Trinidad & Tobago, High Commission of the Republic of Tunisia, Embassy of Turkey, Embassy of the Republic of Ukraine, Embassy of United Arab Emirates, Embassy of the Uruguay, Embassy of Uzbekistan, Embassy of the Republic of Venezuela, Embassy of the Bolivarian Republic of Vietnam, Embassy of the Socialist Republic of Yemen, Embassy of the Republic of Zambia, High Commission for the Republic of Royal College of Defence Studies School of Oriental and African Studies – Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy University College London – Faculty of Laws and School of Public Policy University of Bath – Department of Politics, Languages and International Studies University of Buckingham – Department of Economics and International Studies University of East Anglia – Department of Political, Social and International Studies University of East Anglia – London Academy of Diplomacy University of Kent – Department of Politics and International Relations University of Portsmouth – Centre for European and International Studies Research Rt Hon Lord Hurd of Westwell CH CBE PC Majid Jafar Nemir Kirdar Sarah Laessig Sir Richard Lambert John Leech Gerard Legrain Simon Lerner Anthony Loehnis Rachel Lomax Sir Roderic Lyne KCMG Rt Hon Sir John Major KG CH John Makin Mladen Milinkovic Dr Alexander Mirtchev University of Sussex – School of Global Studies Peter Montagnon University of Westminster – Department of Politics and International Relations 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