D. Stuart Hale University of Tennessee-Knoxville Forestry, Wildlife, and Fisheries Ecosystem services are “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” (MEA 2005). Examples include: Fiber Recreation Carbon Sequestration Water Quality Biodiversity Human relationships with ecosystems • Plato (c.400 BC) • George Marsh • Progressive Era conservationists First noted human impacts on the environment Man and Nature, in 1864, argued that natural resources are finite Pinchot and Leopold - Humans are part of ecosystems and must act as proper stewards to ensure their health • Current Academy Daily’s Nature’s Services (1997); Constanza et al. (1997); Salzman and others- Increasing awareness of humans’ dependence on nature and accounting for the services provided Ecosystem services markets are emerging driven primarily by: consumer demand • Voluntary markets • Eco-labeling government regulation • Mitigation markets (CWA and ESA) New York City watershed protection in 1990s saved an estimated $4.5 billion Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in 2005 UN sanctioned approximately 1300 scientist worldwide to analyze ecosystem health and human impacts and consequences Increasing demand for benefits of ecosystem services due to: • • • • Increasing degradation and scarcity of ecosystem functions Public policy and regulatory shifts – ESA, CWA, CAA Potential economic benefits to landowners and communities Dynamic land-use and ownership patterns – TIMOs and REITs (≈13% of private forestlands) • Identify, map, and quantify areas as traditionally • • • • managed for timber and recreation Identify ecosystem services markets and capture values as reflected through current prices Identify, map, and quantify areas suitable for ecosystem services management Compare calculated values of ecosystem services management scheme and to calculated traditional management scheme Anchor to actual landscape as a case study • • • • Determine validity of ecosystem services management as part of a comprehensive resource management strategy and compare to traditional management Provide a demonstrative example of an ecosystem services management scheme Estimate direct market present value of ecosystem services Use open-source information as available •Proposed Project Area is approximately 3,976 acres •Dumps Creek watershed in southwest Virginia •Mixed mesophytic forest ecoregion of predominately upland hardwoods with some cove hardwood forest types •Current and past land uses included timber, coal, and natural gas extraction, human habitation, and agriculture Traditional management scheme: 1. Fiber 2. Recreation leases Ecosystem management scheme: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Fiber Recreation leases Watershed services Carbon sequestration Biodiversity Identify traditional and ecosystem services markets Examples: • Local fiber markets • Local recreational hunt leasing • Ecosystem Marketplace • The Bay Bank • The Nature Conservancy • Mitigation banks/ ILF programs • “Over the Counter” (OTC) Find comparable prices from reported transactions or estimates Landscape features with potential to offer marketable ecosystem services: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Areas suitable for fiber harvests Culturally significant sites Retention areas of recent timber harvest Areas unlikely for timber harvest Perennial streams Critical habitat Non-forest areas Wetlands High Conservation Value Forests Critical viewsheds Areas with public safety concerns Traditional Management Scheme Service Fiber Area (ac) 2,873 (80% BA harvest) 410 (50% BA harvest) 3,283 Recreation 3,883 NA* Non-timber 693 693 TOTALS: 3,976 *The area of recreation is considered co-use, in that it provides multiple services, and therefore will only be counted once in total area. Traditional Management Scheme Service Prices Service Units Price per unit Sources Assumptions Fiber MBF •$100 – pessimistic •$125 – most likely •$150 – optimistic •Local prices •Timber MartSouth 2nd Quarter 2010 •3000 BF/ac •Harvest 80% for suitable areas •Harvest 50% for SMZ buffers •Annual harvest rate of total area/15-year ownership period Recreation acre •$2.00 – pessimistic •$2.07 – most likely •$3.00 – optimistic •Local prices •VA DOF •All areas suitable are leased annually based on current conditions Ecosystem Services Management Scheme Service Area (ac) Linear feet Fiber 2,264 NA (80% BA harvest) Recreation 3,883* NA Carbon 685 NA Watershed 397 94,212 Services (No harvest SMZ Buffers) Biodiversity 630 NA (Non-timber) TOTALS: 3,976 *The area of recreation is considered co-use, in that it provides multiple services, and therefore will only be counted once in total area. Ecosystem Management Scheme Service Prices Service Unit Price per unit Sources Assumptions Fiber MBF •$100 – pessimistic •$125 – most likely •$150 – optimistic •Local prices •Timber MartSouth 2nd Quarter 2010 •3000 BF/ac •Harvest 80% for suitable areas •Harvest 50% for SMZ buffers •Annual harvest rate of total area/15-year ownership period Recreation acre •$2.00 – pessimistic •$2.07 – most likely •$3.00 – optimistic •Local prices •VA DOF All areas suitable are leased annually based on current conditions Carbon ton •$0.10 – pessimistic •$1.00 – most likely •$4.00 - optimistic •Ecosystem Marketplace •Appalachian Carbon Partnership •127 tons/ac •Annual enrollment rate of total area/15-year ownership period •Additional area from fiber retention in Year 2 Ecosystem Management Scheme Prices (continued) Service Unit Price per unit Sources Assumptions Watershed linear feet •$20 – pessimistic •$25 – most likely •$30 – optimistic •Approximate ILF average – construction cost •Approximately 10% of ILF prices •1% of total LFt sold annually for 15-year ownership period •Act as mitigation bank •Demand provided through mitigation markets (CWA) Biodiversity acre •$0.00 for all pricing scenarios •Transactions are taking place but prices are highly variable and project specific •No local transactions •Act as conservation bank •Demand provided by conservation markets (ESA) Valuate marketable services as available and projected : 5 y= Σ (a )(v ) i =1 i i Whereas, y = economic benefits to landowner i = landscape feature a = units of marketable ecosystem services v = value per unit of marketable ecosystem services Comparison of Management Schemes by Pricing Scenario 1600000.00 1400000.00 Dollars (US) 1200000.00 1000000.00 Ecosystem Services Management 800000.00 Traditional Management 600000.00 400000.00 200000.00 0.00 Pessimistic Most Likely Optimistic Traditional Management Scheme Service Pessimistic Fiber 498,410.42 Recreation 40,304.21 TOTALS: $538,714.63 Most likely 623,013.02 83,429.72 $706,442.74 Optimistic 747,615.63 120,912.64 $868,528.27 Pessimistic Most Likely Optimistic Fiber 375,992.73 469,990.92 563,989.10 Recreation Carbon 40,304.21 9,634.00 83,429.72 96,339.97 120,912.64 385,359.89 Watershed 195,577.67 244,472.09 293,366.50 Biodiversity 0.00 0.00 0.00 $621,508.61 $894,232.69 $1,363,628.13 Ecosystem Services Management Scheme Service TOTALS: All prices include a 5% discount rate Traditional Management Scheme Ecosystem Services Management Scheme Total Values ($) Total Values ($) Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total (a l l pri ces wi th a 5% di s count ra te) Pessimistic 49,429.52 47,075.74 44,834.04 42,699.08 40,665.79 38,729.33 36,885.07 35,128.64 33,455.85 31,862.71 30,345.44 28,900.42 27,524.21 26,213.53 24,965.27 538,714.63 Most likely 64,819.34 61,732.71 58,793.05 55,993.39 53,327.03 50,787.65 48,369.19 46,065.90 43,872.28 41,783.13 39,793.45 37,898.53 36,093.84 34,375.08 32,738.17 706,442.74 Optimistic 79,691.43 75,896.60 72,282.47 68,840.45 65,562.34 62,440.32 59,466.97 56,635.21 53,938.30 51,369.81 48,923.62 46,593.93 44,375.17 42,262.07 40,249.59 868,528.27 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total (a l l pri ces wi th a 5% di s count ra te) Pessimistic 56,694.63 54,342.62 51,754.88 49,290.36 46,943.20 44,707.81 42,578.86 40,551.30 38,620.28 36,781.22 35,029.74 33,361.65 31,773.00 30,260.00 28,819.05 621,508.61 Most likely 78,733.79 78,461.84 74,725.57 71,167.21 67,778.29 64,550.75 61,476.91 58,549.44 55,761.37 53,106.06 50,577.20 48,168.77 45,875.02 43,690.49 41,609.99 894,232.69 Optimistic 111,854.54 120,437.27 114,702.16 109,240.16 104,038.24 99,084.04 94,365.75 89,872.15 85,592.52 81,516.69 77,634.94 73,938.04 70,417.18 67,063.98 63,870.46 1,363,628.13 Traditional Management Scheme - Combined Pessimistic Prices Ecosystem Management Scheme - Combined Pessimistic Prices 700,000 600,000 600,000 500,000 500,000 Biodiversity Recreation Fiber 300,000 200,000 Dollars (US) Dollars (US) 400,000 Watershed Services Carbon 400,000 300,000 Recreation Fiber 200,000 100,000 100,000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year Traditional Management Scheme - Combined Most Likely Prices Ecosystem Management Scheme - Combined Most Likely Values 1,000,000 800,000 900,000 700,000 800,000 600,000 Recreation 500,000 Fiber 400,000 300,000 Dollars (US) Dollars (US) 700,000 Biodiversity 600,000 500,000 Watershed Services 400,000 Carbon 300,000 Recreation 200,000 200,000 Fiber 100,000 100,000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year Traditional Management Scheme - Combined Optimistic Prices Ecosystem Management Scheme - Combined Optimistic Prices 1,000,000 1,600,000 900,000 1,400,000 800,000 1,200,000 700,000 Biodiversity 600,000 Fiber 500,000 400,000 1,000,000 Dollars (US) Dollars (US) Recreation Watershed Services Carbon 800,000 Recreation 600,000 Fiber 300,000 400,000 200,000 200,000 100,000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year Problems • Market approach may not be best for insuring long-term ecosystem health • Highly variable costs and pricing • Negative impacts from perpetual deed restrictions Future selling price Restricting future management options Positives • Additional revenues and making acres productive • • • • that may not have been otherwise Additional management actions could be incorporated into current practices Provide opportunity for management of other desirable species without market values Could provide for significant gains if applied to a larger portfolio Promote awareness and education of human impacts and dependence on ecosystem health • • • • • Ecosystem markets are emerging but immature Ecosystem services management and marketing may offer additional revenues to landowners now and in the future Greater recognition of ecosystem service values could influence management policies Humans and ecosystem health are dependent upon the services originating on private lands Improved ecosystem management could result in improved human and ecosystem health • • • The University of Tennessee-Knoxville • Department of Forestry, Wildlife, and Fisheries • Dr. Don Hodges, Dr. Dave Ostermeier, Dr. Chris Clark Craig Kaderavek, The Forestland Group Bobby Campbell, The Forest Management Company