Stream Temperatures & Climate Change:
Observed Patterns & Key Uncertainties
Dan Isaak, Bruce Rieman, Charlie Luce, Erin Peterson1, Jay
Ver Hoef2, Jason Dunham3, Brett Roper, Erik Archer,
Dona Horan, Gwynne Chandler, Dave Nagel, Sharon Parkes
U.S. Forest Service
1CSIRO
2NOAA
3U.S. Geological Survey
Air, Water &
Aquatics
Program
Metabolic Ecology and Thermal Niches
Temperature &
metabolic rates
Thermal Niche
Brown 2004
In the lab…
McMahon et al. 2007
& the field
Isaak & Hubert 2004
Temperature Regulation – Spatial Distributions
Regional Scale
Rieman et al. 2007
Channel Unit Scale
Bonneau &
Scarnecchia 1996
Elevation
Stream Scale
Stream Distance
Temperature Regulation - Life Cycle
Spawn timing - Chinook salmon
Median Redd Completion Date
Beaver
Marsh
Sulphur
Big
Camas
Loon
Incubation length Chinook salmon
9/3
8/24
8/14
8/4
7
9
11
13
15
17
Mean Stream Temperature (C)
Thurow, unpublished
Migration timing sockeye salmon
Brannon et al. 2004
Growth Arctic grayling
July stream temp
Crozier et al. 2008
Dion and Hughes 1994
Western US – Observed Trends
Warmer
Air Temps
Declining
Snowpacks
Mote et al. 2005
Mote et al. 2005
Wildfire Increases
Decreasing Baseflows
(Luce and Holden 2009)
Westerling et al. 2006
Global Trends in Stream Temperatures
River Loire, France (1880 – 2003)
Moatar and Gailhard 2006
Danube River, Austria (1901 – 2000)
Webb and Nobilus 2007
Global Trends in Stream Temperatures
Streams in Switzerland (1978 – 2004)
•22 of 25 streams show
statistically significant warming
Hari et al. 2006
NAO shift
Regional Trends In Stream Temperatures
Fraser River - Summer
∆ = 0.18°C/decade
Morrison et al. 2002
Columbia River - Summer
∆ = 0.40°C/decade
Date
Petersen and Kitchell 2001; Crozier et al. 2008
Regional Trends In Stream Temperatures
USGS NWIS Monitoring Sites (1980 – 2009)
= reservoir affected (11)
= free-flowing (9)
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
Seasonal Trends In Stream Temperatures
USGS NWIS Monitoring Sites (1980 – 2009)
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
1980-2009 Warming Trends
Minimally Altered, Free-Flowing Sites
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
Application of Spatial Statistical Models
for Downscaling of Climate Effects
on River Network Temperatures
Dan Isaak, Charlie Luce, Bruce Rieman,
Dave Nagel, Erin Peterson1, Dona Horan,
Sharon Parkes, and Gwynne Chandler
Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab
U.S. Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
Boise, ID 83702
1CSIRO
Mathematical and Information Sciences
Indooroopilly, Queensland, Australia
Boise River Temperature Database
Stream Temperature Database
14 year period (1993 – 2006)
780 observations
518 unique locations
Watershed Characteristics
Elevation range 900 – 3300 m
Fish bearing streams ~2,500 km
Watershed area = 6,900 km2
Spatial Statistical Models
for Stream Networks
Advantages:
-flexible & valid covariance structures
by accommodating network topology
-weighting by stream size
-improved predictive ability & parameter
estimates relative to non spatial models
Peterson et al. 2006; Ver Hoef et al. 2006; Ver Hoef and Peterson 2010
Training on left
2007 validation on right
Data from 200
Boise River Temperature Models
Mean Summer
Temp
SummerStream
Mean
Summer Mean
Stream Temp =
– 0.0064*Ele (m)
+ 0.0104*Rad
+ 0.39*AirTemp (C)
– 0.17*Flow (m3/s)
19
Predicted (C°)
14
9
4
4
9
14
19
MWMT Temp =
Spatial Stream
– 0.0045*Ele (m)
y = 0.86x + 2.43
+ 0.0085*Rad
+ 0.48*AirTemp (C)
– 0.11*Flow (m3/s)
30
25
20
15
10
5
5
icted (C°) Predicted ( C)
y = Non-spatial
0.93x + 0.830
0.68x + RMSE
3.82
r2y== 0.68;
= 1.54°C
19
14
Training on left
9
Non-spatial
Multiple Regression Model
Summer Mean
4
4
19
30
r2
9
14
0.93;
RMSE
= 0.74°C
y ==0.93x
+ 0.830
MWMT
19
y = 0.55x + 7.79
25
14
20
9
15
Spatial
Multiple Regression Model
4
10
4
5
2007 va
Isaak
et al. 15
2010. Eco.
Apps.2520:1350-1371
10
20
30 30 5
9
14
19
Observed
10
15
20 ( C)25
MWMT
30
Environmental Trends in
the Boise River Basin
Summer Air Temperature
20
18
1976-2006
+0.44°C/decade
16
14
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Study
period
1995
2000
2005
2010
Recent Wildfires
Summer Stream Flow
30
14% burned during 93–06 study period
30% burned from 92-08
Discharge
Summer
(m3/s)
discharge
Summer
(C)
Air(C)
Summer
Mean Air
Summer Mean
22
Study
period
25
20
15
10
5
0
1945
1946–2006
-4.8%/decade
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Changes in Summer Stream
Temperatures (1993-2006)
100%
∆0.38 C
∆0.70 C
0.27°C/10y 0.50°C/10y
Radiation
Air Temperature
Stream Flow
80%
60%
Thermal Gain Map
40%
20%
0%
Basin Scale
Burned Areas
Temperature ( C)
Isaak et al. 2010. Eco. Apps. 20:1350-1371
Effects on Thermal Habitat?
Bull Trout
High
Quality
2
12
Suitable
8
Suitable habitat < 12.0°C
High-quality habitat < 10.0°C
4
0
9
11
Summer Mean (C)
Rainbow Trout
13
15 25
2
7
Rainbow trout
)
(#/100mm2)
trout(#/100
Rainbow
(#/100
trout
Juvenile
m)2)m
(#/100
trout
bullbull
Juvenile
16
Suitable
20
High
Quality
15
10
5
0
7
Suitable habitat = > 9.0°C
High-quality habitat = 11.0-14.0°C
9
11
Summer mean (C)
13
15
93-06 Rainbow Trout Habitat Changes
Habitat is shifting, but no net gain or loss
High-quality habitat = 11.0-14.0°C
Isaak et al. 2010. Eco. Apps. 20:1350-1371
Gain
No change
Loss
93-06 Bull Trout Natal Habitat Changes
Net loss of habitat occurring (8%-16%/decade)
High-quality habitat < 10°C
Isaak et al. 2010. Eco. Apps. 20:1350-1371
Loss
No change
Additional Applications: River Network Thermal Maps
2006 Mean Summer Temperatures
When & where are
TMDL standards met?
Temperature ( C)
Additional Applications:
Optimizing Sampling Efforts
Temperature Prediction Precision
Maps of Spatial Uncertainty
PNF
SE of predictions
River Network Temperature Models
USGS
= Spatial
= Non-spatial
JD
UNF
ID
Power
PNF
SNF
BNF
Methods online @:
www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/stream_temperature.shtml
Google Search “Stream Temperature”
Regional Temperature Model Needed
Large regional temperature
databases exist (n ~ 12,000 – 20,000 summers)
•Historical & future stream temps
•Species habitat summaries
•1:100,000-Scale NHD+
ICB Streams ~ 250,000 km
A Step Towards a Regional Temperature Model
NCEAS Lower Snake Study Domain
•42,000 stream km
•1,800 temperature sites
•6,000 summer observations
Regional Bioclimatic Assessments
No Stream Temperature Component
Rieman et al. 2007
Wenger et al., Submitted.
Williams et al. 2009
Summer is Not the Whole Story
Full-year Temp Data Needed
Annual Temperature Cycle
Summer
Annual Accumulation
Degree Day Chart 2007
Salmon
of- MFThermal
Units
deg-days
Cumulative
Cumulative degree day (C)
Olden and Naiman 2009
3000
Air temp MF Lodge
2500
Marsh Cr, 1985m
SF Salmon R, 1569m
2000
Big Cr, 1163m
?
1500
1000
?
500
Summer ~40%
of degree days
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
Julian Day
Julian Day
240
270
300
330
360
Acquiring Full-Year Temperature Data
Underwater Epoxy Protocol
Underwater epoxy
$100 = 5 years of data
Retrieve data underwater
Sensors glued to boulders
Isaak & Horan 2011. NAJFM 31:xxx-xxx
Regional Temperature Sensor Network
Current full-year stream temperature sites = 1375
Planned 2011 deployments ~1,000 (NOAA ~500, PIBO 150,
200, R6/AREMP 200-300, misc. others ? )
USGS 100-
Dynamic GoogleMap Tool for Stream
Temperature Monitoring Sites
Site Information
•Stream name
•Data steward contact
information
•Agency
•Site Initiation Date
Webpage:
www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/stream_temperature.shtml
Google Search “Stream Temperature”
Spatial Variation in Temperature Changes
Stream Temperature
18
Site-level Change?
16
14
12
Systematic Change?
10
8
6
Present
Different Climate
Forcing?
Future
Or Different Sensitivity?
Past/present glaciation
Daly et al. 2008
Hari et al. 2006
Which Factors Determine Sensitivity?
Geomorphology
Hydrology?
Riparian Type?
Groundwater
buffering
Wildfires?
Elevational Trends in Warming of
Northwest US Streams 1980-2009
Isaak et al., In review. Climatic Change
Defining/Refining Thermal Habitat Criteria
What is thermally suitable habitat?
2
(#/100
bull trout
) m
Density
Trout
BullJuvenile
16
12
Field Guesstimates
8
Bull trout thermal criteria
4
Suitable habitat < 12.0°C
High-quality habitat < 10.0°C
0
7
9
11
13
15
Summer Mean (C)
Summer
Mean Temp
Lab Measurements
Bear et al. 2007
Ecological Temperature Sensor Networks
Bull Trout
natal
habitats
Salmon River Chinook salmon
natal & migratory
habitats
Massive Sensor Networks
Ecologically Relevant Climate Downscaling
Continuous
Space/Time
Air Temp
Surface
Continuous
Space/Time
Stream Temp
Surface
Wiens and Bachelet 2009
Better Downscaling
How will global trends affect my stream?
GCM
RCM
Integrated global-toregional-to-landscape-tostream systems
Key Points:
1) Stream temperature is a critical determinant of aquatic
species growth, survival, distribution, and reproduction.
2) Empirical evidence suggests streams are warming in
response to climate change. Warming rates are
greatest during the summer but will be heterogeneous
due to variation in climate forcing, geomorphic factors,
and human/vegetative responses.
3) Regional models are needed for accurately predicting
thermal responses of streams in a consistent manner.
Development of regional models is possible using
existing temperature databases in conjunction with new
spatial analytical techniques.
4) More full-year, long-term stream temperature
monitoring is needed. Full-year data have many
applications for understanding climate effects & are
inexpensive to collect using modern digital sensors.
Climate Change, Aquatic
Ecosystems, and Fishes in the
Rocky Mountain West:
Implications and Alternatives
for Management
Bruce E. Rieman and Daniel J. Isaak
Synthesis
Document
Three Questions:
1) What is changing in the
climate and related physical
processes that may influence
aquatic species and their
habitats?
2) What are the implications
for fish populations, aquatic
communities and related
conservation values?
3) What can we do about it?
Boise Aquatic Sciences Laboratory
Air, Water, and Aquatic Environments
Rocky Mountain Research Station
322 E. Front St., Suite 401
Boise, ID 83706
Key References
Isaak, D.J., C. Luce, B.E. Rieman, D. Nagel, E. Peterson, D. Horan, S. Parkes, and G. Chandler. 2010.
Effects of climate change and recent wildfires on stream temperature and thermal habitats for two
salmonids in a mountain river network. Ecological Applications 20:1350-1371.
Isaak, D.J., and D.L. Horan. 2011. An assessment of underwater epoxies for permanently installing
temperature sensors in mountain streams. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 31:000000.
Isaak, D.J.; Horan, D.; Wollrab, S. 2010. A simple method using underwater epoxy to permanently install
temperature sensors in mountain streams. Visual Guide Available @:
http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/stream_temperature.shtml/
Isaak, D.J., S. Wollrab, D.L. Horan, and G. Chandler. In Review. Trends in seasonal and ecologically
relevant temperature attributes of streams and rivers in the northwest U.S. associated with
anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change.
Peterson, E.E., and J.M. Ver Hoef. 2010. A mixed-model moving-average approach to geostatistical
modeling in stream networks. Ecology 91:644-651.
Rieman, B. E., D. Isaak, S. Adams, D. Horan, D., Nagel, and C. Luce. 2007. Anticipated climate warming
effects on bull trout habitats and populations across the Interior Columbia River basin. Transactions
of the American Fisheries Society 136:1552-1565.
Rieman, B. E., and D. J. Isaak. 2010. Climate change, aquatic ecosystems and fishes in the Rocky Mountain
West: implications and alternatives for management. General Technical Report GTR-RMRS-250. Fort
Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Ver Hoef, J.M., and E.E. Peterson. 2010. A moving average approach for spatial statistical models of
stream networks. Journal of the American Statistical Association 105:6-18.
Wenger, S. J., D. J. Isaak, J. B. Dunham, K. D. Fausch, C. H. Luce, H. M. Neville, B. E. Rieman, M. K. Young,
D. E. Nagel, D. L. Horan, and G. L. Chandler. In Press. Role of climate and invasive species in
structuring trout distributions in the Interior Columbia Basin. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and
Aquatic Sciences.
Wenger, S. J.; C.H. Luce, A.F. Hamlet, D.J. Isaak, H.M. Neville. 2010. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of
ecologically relevant flow metrics. Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2009WR008839. Data for
western US streams available @:
http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/modeled_stream_flow_metrics.shtml
Most publications available through: www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/index.shtml or
www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/awae_home.shtml
Don’t Stop Believing
National Survey Finds Public Concern About Global Warming Drops
Sharply January 29, 2010 , CBB
US Forest Service
Rocky Mountain Research Station
Air, Water, and Aquatics Program
Boise Aquatic Sciences Lab
websites: www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/index.shtml
www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/awae_home.shtml