Changing the structure of AS/A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics An MEI discussion paper 1. Background MEI is an independent curriculum body for mathematics and has developed one of the current A level specifications for Mathematics and Further Mathematics, administered by OCR. MEI has managed the national Further Mathematics Support Programme, and its predecessors, since 2005. Mathematics is unique, both through its importance for large numbers of students going on to further study and employment in STEM and non-STEM fields, and in having a second A level (Further Mathematics) which is dependent on the first A level (Mathematics). MEI has written this discussion paper to contribute to national thinking about re-developing A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics so that more students are better prepared for the mathematical demands of further study and employment. 1.1 Forthcoming changes in the structure of A levels New A levels in some subjects are to be developed for first teaching from September 2015. At the time of writing this paper, it is intended the new A levels will have the following attributes. (a) (b) (c) 1.2 All the A level content should be assessed at the end of the course. Assessment should include more open-ended and more synoptic questions. AS levels continue to be half the content of an A level but the AS assessment does not contribute to A level grades. The current A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics The current A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics each consist of six units. Four of the A level Mathematics units are compulsory and, typically, so are two of the A level Further Mathematics units. There is a choice for the remaining six units for the two A levels, with some units in the applied mathematics strands able to count towards either Mathematics or Further Mathematics (but not both). The current structure has been in place since 2004, with the numbers of students taking AS/A level Mathematics and AS/A level Further Mathematics increasing very significantly year-on-year since then1. The current structure replaced the Curriculum 2000 A levels, which had led to a catastrophic drop in numbers taking A level Mathematics2. This very large drop illustrates the unfortunate consequences that can occur when a major reform, 1 Between 2004 and 2012 combined A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics numbers rose from 58 508 to 98 937, a 69% increase and A level Further Mathematics numbers rose from 5 720 to 13 223, an increase of 131%. (JCQ) 2 Numbers prior to 2004 for A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics combined had been reasonably stable for 10 years at around 70 000 until a disastrous drop in 2002 following the Curriculum 2000 changes, when numbers fell by nearly 20% from 66 247 to 53940. http://mathstore.ac.uk/headocs/7430_porkess_r_moremathcompgrads.pdf 1 though introduced with the best of intentions overall, is not sufficiently well thought through for the effects it may have on particular subjects, especially mathematics. In terms of increasing participation, the current A level structure for Mathematics and Further Mathematics, supported by the Further Mathematics Support Programme, has been a major success. This has been greatly appreciated by university STEM departments as significantly more undergraduates have studied more mathematics in preparation for their degree courses. However, there is still a long way to go before the supply of students with AS/A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics qualifications reaches a level that would satisfy the demand from universities and employers.3 A problem that has been identified with the current Mathematics A level is the high proportion of students that achieve the top grades. About 45% of students achieve grades A and A* in A level Mathematics4; this is a far higher proportion than for other mainstream A level subjects. This lack of differentiation among the most able A level Mathematics students makes it difficult for universities to select the best mathematicians. However, a 2012 DfE research report5 found that the impact of GCSE grade on progression to A level study was highest for Mathematics, with high progression only from students with A and A* grades at GCSE. The report also found that ‘Maths shows one of the largest differences between GCSE A* and A grade pupils achieving an A* at A level’, indicating that it is already one of the most demanding A levels; its grade profile reflects the cohort of students that takes it, rather than its difficulty relative to other A levels. Making A level Mathematics more demanding would enable greater differentiation at the top end, but if it becomes more difficult to achieve the highest grades it is likely that fewer students will choose to study it. Increasing the difficulty of A level Mathematics could also cause some schools and colleges to encourage mathematically-able students to choose other subjects, where they are more likely to succeed in achieving a top grade. The current A levels were not designed with a view to all of the assessment taking place at the end of the two-year course. For instance, a student taking A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics currently takes twelve units, each with a 1.5 hour examination, spread across two years. An examination load of this size, at the end of the second year of the course, would be an extremely unattractive burden for students and would almost certainly lead to a decrease in uptake of Further Mathematics. As well as reducing the level of mathematics achieved by students progressing to university, this would reduce the ability of universities to identify the most able students. The number of students choosing to take Further Mathematics is especially sensitive because, while taking it is in the interest of many students, Further Mathematics is not an entry requirement for the vast majority of courses for which it is extremely beneficial. This is because many university admissions tutors still lack the confidence to specify it in their offers or recommend it in their prospectuses, fearing that it may deter students from applying. Any changes that make Further Mathematics seem less attractive, and hence reduce the number of students taking it, will make it less likely for universities to specify or recommend it. This would reduce the incentive for students to choose it, resulting in a downward spiral of demand and supply that would have a disastrous effect on uptake. 3 ‘Mathematical Needs: Mathematics in the workplace and in higher education’ http://www.acmeuk.org/media/7624/acme_theme_a_final%20%282%29.pdf 4 JCQ figures 5 Subject progression from GCSE to AS Level and continuation to A Level, DfE 2012 2 1.3 The benefits of modularity The MEI Structured Mathematics scheme was first introduced in 1990. The underlying philosophy behind this first modular scheme was given in the introduction to the specification. ‘Our decision to develop this structure, based on 45-hour Components, for the study of Mathematics beyond GCSE stems from our conviction, as practising teachers, that it will better meet the needs of our students. We believe its introduction will result in more people taking the subject at both A and AS, and that the use of a greater variety of assessment techniques will allow content to be taught and learnt more appropriately with due emphasis given to the processes involved.’6 We remain convinced that a well-designed modular course has the following benefits and we would like to see as many as possible of these benefits preserved under the new structure. Encouraging uptake of AS and A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics due to the flexibility of the course for students – they can stop after AS or continue further after receiving feedback on progress so far. Enabling appropriate assessment for each module. Facilitating innovation through the development of new units, responding to changes in the way mathematics is used in higher education and the workplace. Allowing centres some flexibility in the organisation of teaching. 2. Optimising change in Mathematics A levels Changing AS/A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics could and should present a real opportunity to improve them, making them a better preparation for higher education and employment by developing more valid assessments and embedding the use of digital technology into teaching and learning. However, if changes are rushed, the unintended consequences could be very serious, putting at risk the dramatic gains in uptake of the past eight years. The factors involved and a possible timetable for bringing about effective change are discussed in this section. 2.1 Risk to uptake from rapid structural changes The structure of Mathematics A levels would need to change significantly to meet requirements (a), (b) and (c) for the new A levels, described in 1.1 above. The structural changes needed should be considered very carefully, otherwise there is real potential for disaster, as happened with Curriculum 2000, which resulted in a 20% fall in A level Mathematics numbers2,7. To allow new A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics to be available for teaching from September 2015, they would need to be submitted to Ofqual for accreditation by May 2014. This would require many fundamental structural decisions to be agreed in the next few weeks. The risks of attempting to make significant structural changes to Mathematics A 6 MEI Structured Mathematics specification A world-class mathematics education for all our young people, Vorderman et al, 2011 http://www.conservatives.com/news/news_stories/2011/08/~/media/files/downloadable%20files/vorder man%20maths%20report.ashx 7 3 levels on this timescale are simply too great. Changes should be delayed to avoid jeopardising recent healthy gains, and to allow time for effective development. 2.2 Missed opportunities that would result from changes in 2015 There is a danger that rapid change in the short-term would mean missing opportunities to make major improvements to A level Mathematics in the medium-term. Major changes to Mathematics A levels will require new teaching and learning resources. If changes are made in 2015, it is inevitable that the production of new resources will be hurried, with no time for them to be informed by developments such as the Cambridge University Mathematics Education Project (CMEP). Rushed development of textbooks and other resources compromises their quality. The need for new teaching resources would also necessitate significant investment, so that schools and colleges would not want to make further investment in resources for several years. The sequential nature of mathematics means that AS/A level Mathematics must build on what happens at GCSE, but new Mathematics GCSEs will not be in place in time to inform new A level Mathematics specifications for 2015. The welcome intention to greatly increase participation in the study of mathematics post-16, in line with Michael Gove’s ambition that “….we should set a new goal for the education system so that within a decade the vast majority of pupils are studying maths right through to the age of 18.”8 will require both increased participation in AS/A level Mathematics, and the development of new level 3 mathematics pathways for those students who have achieved a grade C or higher at GCSE but for whom AS/A level Mathematics is not the right option. To ensure a coherent level 3 mathematics provision to meet the needs of all students, new A levels for Mathematics and Further Mathematics should be developed in parallel with qualifications for the new pathways. 2.3 The assessment of AS/A level Mathematics The 2012 IPSOS Mori research for Ofqual indicated that there is little dissatisfaction from higher education with the current content of Mathematics A level, but there are concerns about its assessment. “Another recurring message from those at higher education lecturing in Mathematics, and Mathematics-based STEM subjects such as Physics and Engineering, was that the Mathematics A level has generally the right content but students have not been given the time to gain proficiency in using mathematical tools….. It was felt that the current assessment system was partly to blame for this situation as students learned to apply a technique in only the limited cases which had been demonstrated to them, and which they knew tended to come up in assessment, rather than across a broad range of problems which requires a more discerning approach and requires students to really understand the reasons behind using a certain mathematical approach.”9 Ofqual’s review of standards over time in A level Mathematics has shown that Assessment Objectives are not interpreted consistently between awarding bodies and that there is insufficient emphasis on mathematical reasoning (Assessment Objective 2). 8 Michael Gove, Secretary of State for education, Royal Society, June 2011 Fit for Purpose? The view of the higher education sector, teachers and employers on the suitability of A levels (April 2012) 9 4 “Many of the pure papers in both 2004 and 2007 contained too great a proportion of highly structured questions, with very few unstructured questions requiring the construction of extended arguments. It was therefore difficult to see how the minimum requirement of 30 per cent of the overall marks could be allocated to AO2. This issue remained the same between 2004 and 2007 and so cannot be said to affect demand over time. Indeed, the same issue was raised in the reports on the previous standards reviews in GCE mathematics. Reviewers also judged that the coverage of AO2 was not consistent between awarding bodies and that it affected the demand across awarding bodies in 2004 and 2007.”10 It is also the case that Assessment Objective 4, on comprehension, is widely ignored in the current specifications. It includes ‘read critically and comprehend longer mathematical arguments or examples of applications’. The MEI specification is the only current specification to address this, even though mathematical comprehension skills are strongly valued by higher education. MEI has shown this objective can be assessed effectively and it should be addressed by all specifications. The new Assessment Objectives being used for the current GCSE Mathematics have resulted in improvements to its assessment. Revised Assessment Objectives for A level Mathematics, which are consistently interpreted by examiners and enforced by Ofqual, could result in improvement in A level assessment. In order for new Assessment Objectives to result in improved teaching and more valid assessment, they must be interpreted in the same way by all awarding bodies and changes to the current styles of assessment must be communicated clearly and exemplified for the benefit of teachers. Serious discussion is also required about the place of coursework, especially in numerical and statistical analysis involving the use of digital technology. 2.4 Updating A level Mathematics to reflect the impact of digital technology The current AS/A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics courses do not reflect the increasing use of digital technology to apply mathematical and statistical techniques in higher education and industry. This means the current courses are scarcely fit for purpose now, and certainly will not be in the medium or longer term. Curriculum development to embed technology properly into A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics cannot be done in time for 2015, but could be introduced subsequently. 2.5 Demand from universities Universities must be honest about the mathematics qualifications they would like students to have before embarking on different degree courses, and their offers must reflect this. The experience of the Further Mathematics Support Programme has shown that demand from universities is a powerful lever on students’ choices, and on the behaviour of schools and colleges. If A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics courses become more demanding at the highest grades, so that they differentiate better between the most able students, demand from universities can help ensure that students do not decide against choosing them. 10 Review of standards in GCE mathematics in 2004 and 2007 (March 2009) 5 2.6 Suggested timetable To make the change to new AS/A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics effective, while minimising the chance of disastrous unintended consequences, we suggest that, for the reasons explained in section 2.1, changes should be delayed until 2016. Limited changes could be introduced in 2016, to address items (a), (b) and (c) in section 1.1; two possible models for how this might be achieved are set out in appendix 1. Changes to address section 2.2 above, and to integrate the use of technology into the curriculum and further improve the validity of assessment, could then be introduced on an on-going basis. This would enable AS/A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics to evolve over time, with changes being properly trialled and piloted. A good example of how this can work is the new ‘Further Pure Mathematics with Technology’11 unit, which was developed for first teaching from September 2012 within the current OCR(MEI) A level Mathematics specification. 3. Conclusion The existing A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics could and should be improved, to increase the validity of assessment and to differentiate more effectively between the most able students. There is no straightforward way to amend AS/A levels in Mathematics, and especially in Further Mathematics, to meet the requirements for new A levels, as set out in section 1. MEI believes that, because of the potential for very serious unintended consequences, which could result in fewer students choosing to study Mathematics and Further Mathematics, and to ensure best use is made of the opportunity to improve the qualifications, as explained in sections 2.2, 2,3 and 2.4, changes should be delayed until 2016. In the longer term, curriculum development in A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics should become an on-going process, so that the curriculum can evolve to reflect changes in the needs of universities and employers, and developments in technology. 11 See http://www.mei.org.uk/?section=teachers&page=fpt for details 6 Appendix 1 Possible models for new A levels in Mathematics and Further Mathematics In this section two possible ‘limited change’ models for revised A levels for teaching from 2016 are considered. Both of these models allow end of course assessment and also retain the possibility of some applied components counting towards either Mathematics or Further Mathematics (but not both), which is greatly valued by students and teachers. Even these limited changes would require careful consideration and consultation to identify their possible unintended consequences. There is no way of knowing how many students will choose to take AS at the end of year 12 when it no longer contributes to A level grades. Allowing a compensatory AS to students who do not achieve an A level grade, but who show sufficient grasp of half the content to have obtained an AS if they had entered for one, could go some way to encouraging students to start on, or continue with A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics. 1. Combined pure papers for A level Mathematics and A level Further Mathematics Possible scheme of assessment A level Mathematics A level Further Mathematics 3 hour paper covering current C1-4 2½ hour paper covering two current content Further Pure units or an agreed core Two 1½ hour applied papers (as now) Four optional units (as now) each with a 1½ hour paper AS level Mathematics AS level Further Mathematics 2 hour paper covering current C1and 2 The same structure as now with three 1½ content hour papers including FP1 One 1½ hour applied paper (as now) Advantages Disadvantages No change in content for A level Some awarding bodies currently allow a Mathematics. choice of second Further Pure unit – some centres may have to change Most centres will experience little or no content for Further Pure. change in content for A level Further Further Mathematicians sit eight papers Mathematics. at the end of the course and so are likely Allows greater synoptic assessment of to experience exam clashes. pure content in A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics. Total assessment for Further Mathematics A level is 8½ hours; this is AS can be taught in year 12, as now, for likely to be significantly more than other both Mathematics and Further A levels. Mathematics. Students can stop after one year but still get a qualification. The 3 hour paper for A level Mathematics covers two thirds of the content and If there were a common core for Further counts for two thirds of the marks, but Mathematics, universities would know has half the total examining time – will that all students with A level Further this have any impact on overall results? Mathematics have studied the same ‘core’ material. Reducing the length of the optional papers to one hour each would reduce total examining time and improve balance between pure and applied options. However, this would make it more difficult to incorporate open-ended questions in these assessments. There could be an agreed common core for the 2½ hour Further Mathematics paper, or the core for each of the awarding bodies could be based on their current units. 7 2. Increase the compulsory content of A level Further Mathematics Suggested scheme of assessment A level Mathematics A level Further Mathematics 3 hour paper covering current C1-4 3 hour paper covering three current content Further Pure units or an agreed core (half the A level content) Two 1½ hour applied papers (as now) Three optional units each with a 1½ hour paper AS level Mathematics AS level Further Mathematics 2 hour paper covering current C1and 2 The same structure as now with three 1½ content hour papers including FP1 One 1½ hour applied paper (as now) Advantages No change in content for A level Mathematics. If there were a common core for Further Mathematics, universities would know that all students with A level Further Mathematics have studied the same ‘core’ material. Allows greater synoptic assessment of pure content in A level Mathematics and Further Mathematics. Can still teach AS Mathematics and AS Further Mathematics in year 12 (as model 1). Examination time for Further Mathematics is reduced compared with model 1. Disadvantages Choice within A level Further Mathematics would be reduced (many students and teachers value this choice). There is less opportunity for interchange of units between Mathematics and Further Mathematics, which will make it harder for centres to offer Further Mathematics. The 3 hour Further Mathematics paper covers half the content but has less than half the examining time. The 3 hour paper for A level Mathematics covers two thirds of the content and counts for two thirds of the marks, but has half the total examining time. Some of the optional units currently taken by small numbers of students would not survive (including higher mechanics and statistics units). Centres will have to change what they teach for A level Further Mathematics, which may deter them from offering it. Reducing the length of the optional papers to one hour each would reduce total examining time and improve balance between pure and applied options. However, this would make it more difficult to incorporate open-ended questions in these assessments. There could either be an agreed common core for the 3 hour Further Mathematics paper, or the core for each of the awarding bodies could be based on their current units. 8