RIGOROUS JUSTIFICATION OF MODULATION APPROXIMATIONS TO THE FULL WATER WAVE PROBLEM NATHAN TOTZ Abstract We consider solutions to the infinite depth water wave problem in 2D and 3D neglecting surface tension which are to leading order wave packets with small O() amplitude and slow spatial decay that are balanced. Multiscale calculations formally suggest that such solutions have modulations that evolve on O(−2 ) time scales according to a version of a cubic NLS equation depending on dimension. Justifying this rigorously is a real problem, since standard existence results do not yield solutions to the water wave problem that exist for long enough to see the NLS dynamics. Nonetheless, given initial data suitably close to such a wave packet in L2 Sobolev space, we show that there exists a unique solution to the water wave problem which remains within o() to the formal approximation on the natural NLS time scales. The key ingredient in the proof is a formulation of the evolution equations for the water wave problem developed by Sijue Wu (U Mich.) with either no quadratic nonlinearities (in 2D) or mild quadratic nonlinearities that can be eliminated using the method of normal forms (in 3D). 1