ARE YOU SURE YOU REALLY UNDERSTAND ENERGY CONSERVATION?
ARE YOU SURE YOU REALLY UNDERSTAND ENERGY CONSERVATION
Its not PCP
Dummy!
Why conserve
Agenda
 Why conserve?
 What could we contribute?
 What are our options?
 How ready is SMEE?
 What is the role of government?
 What must I do?
 Discussion
Immediate Risk of Load Shedding
2010 ‐ Risk of Load Shedding
Weekly Energy Sent Out
5300
18.00%
5100
16.00%
14.00%
4900
12.00%
4700
4500
8.00%
4300
6.00%
4100
2010 back to 2007 & growing
4.00%
2009 Y‐Y % reduction 2010/03/15
Week Number
51
49
47
45
43
41
39
37
35
33
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
0.00%
7
3700
5
2.00%
3
3900
1
GWh
10.00%
2009
2006
2007
2008
2010
Y-Y % r
5
Security of coal supplies
Coal Supplies – In and out of alarm levels
In Alarm
•Data source: Eskom
6
Managing the Risk of Load Shedding 2010 to 2015 ‐ “mind the gap”
300
Balance
DSM
Res+Com
290
DSM Ind
The really tough years
280
DSM
(SWH)
TWh
IEE
270
DMP
Remaining
Gap
260
Supply
Demand
250
Supply Line
Conservation
Required
TWh Gap
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
240
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
5.3
2.1
-3.4
-1.9
4.9
7
Strateg
y
Route
Vehicle
Lever
Gx Reliability
Tx Reliability
Increase
supply
Dx Reliability
New build & RTS
Cogen/IPP/MTPPP
Primary energy
Reduce
Demand
Now....
Allocations
Lets move to Pricing
Self Managed DMP
Trading
Conservation
DSM
PCP
PCP
ECS
INTENSITY
The Strategy
Increase this Margin
Stepped tariff
EGM
Regulatory
Market Driven
Emergency Load Shedding
What could we contribute
Agenda
 Why conserve?
 What could we contribute.
 What are our options?
 How ready is SMEE?
 What is the role of government?
 What must I do?
 Discussion
What is required ?
ENERGY
CAPACITY
55
300
52.26
290
50
48.33
280
Energy Required
273.17
265.44
yG
g
r
e
En
258.58
260
254.92
ap
GW
270
277.84
46.19
45
45.21
ity
c
a
Cap
44.78
Capacity Required
266.02
42.83
41.36
40
258.26
258.58
*
rve
e
s
Re
49.00
279.75
40.23
38.84
250
250.42
Supply Available
Supply Available
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.8%
0.0%
2.7%
2.6%
0.7%
Initial
Gap
(Reserve)
2014
2013
2012
2011
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
240
2010
35
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
16.4%
14.8%
16.9%
14.4%
16.7%
We need energy not so much load shifting
10
Suite of Solutions
Energy Targets per Solution
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Energy Gap (TWh) (Delay scenario)
-4.500
0.000
7.180
7.152
1.918
Target Per Solution (TWh)
0.801
2.103
3.698
5.251
6.845
- DSM (Domestic & Commercial)
0.319
0.404
0.528
0.806
1.108
- DSM (Industrial)
0.100
0.855
1.740
2.740
3.637
- DSM (Solar Water Heating)
0.005
0.054
0.190
0.464
0.861
- Internal Energy Efficiency
0.217
0.550
1.000
1.000
1.000
- DMP
0.160
0.240
0.240
0.240
0.240
Remaining Gap (TWh)
-5.301
-2.103
3.483
1.901
-4.927
5.223
4.641
0
PCP Requirement (TWh)
0
PCP Solution 0Focus Areas
Should the other DSM initatives deliver we could avoid forced PCP but..
SMC is essential
11
Savings potential by sector
Split of energy consumption across
sectors*
TWh; 2007
Average industry
savings potential
% consumption
BACK UP
Easy / immediate
Realisable
Yield
Difficulty of
implementation
Difficult / requires
Change in technology
& investment
Low effort
High effort
Industrial
95
8
Mining
47
6
Residential
Commercial
International
Agricultural
Traction
Total
3 - TWh
15
15
27
30
10
21
10
14
8
8
10
6
218
7-TWh
18
20
5 - TWh
3- TWh
1- TWh
15
0.6 - TWh
12
20
0.6 -TWh
• Total savings of
20 – 30 TWh possible
versus 23TWh target
• Realisable savings
next 3 years
• 10 – 20 TWh
Residential and commercial: Potential savings levers and initiatives
Residential and commercial consumption
activities
GWh
Air-conditioning
Lighting
Water heating
Standby
11 280
10 260
Potential levers to reduce
consumption
Initiatives
• Use lower settings
1
• Insulate properly
• Use efficient appliances
1,900
• Reduce reliance on air-con
2
• Use CFL bulb
• Reduce street light
1,100
and heaters
• Reduce water consumption 3
6 480
4 050
4
the source
3 630
• Use efficient refrigerators
Cooking
consumption
• Use solar water heaters,
• install shower operations
• Insulate geysers
and pipes
• Switch-off appliances at
Refrigeration
• Use less cooking time
• Find alternative cooking
2 970
Estimated
savings*
GWh
**•
330
Switch-off appliances
• Switch to efficient appliances
790
• Efficient refrigerators
670
5
• Roll-out gas stoves
6
• Use energy efficient office
28
source
Office equipment
• Use efficient equipment
1 680
490
equipment
Other
Total
7 650
• Use efficient appliances
• Switch off after use
48 000
* Based on analysis by McKinsey team and Eskom DSM
13
** Analysis done for both refrigeration and 50% of other appliance combined.
Source: Eskom DSM; Energy analysis
• Use efficient appliances
330
5,630
What are our options
Agenda
 Why conserve?
 What could we contribute?
 What are our options?
 How ready is SMEE?
 What is the role of government?
 What must I do?
 Discussion
Forced “PCP” & Penalties
Illustration of progressive penalties with each transgression c/kWh
900
1350
1800
Punitive
band
450
675
900
Disincentive
band
280
280
280
Control
band
110
% of
allocation
consumed
CB
100
1
2
Number of monthly transgressions
* CB = 101% for customers > 1 MVA; and
102.5% for customers ≤ 1MVA
3
Self Managed Conservation (SMC)
Self‐registration & selection of Ref. Consumption
Reference Consumption Calculator Self‐management of Allocations, within own account
Allocation Management System
Daily export of final allocation
Loading of Billing data by Licensees
Billing Billing system
Billing system
Billing system
system
Self‐registration of bilateral Trades
“private”
Bilateral & Auction
trading system How ready is SMC
Agenda
 Why conserve?
 What could we contribute.
 What are our options?
 How ready is SMC?
 What is the role of government?
 What must I do?
 Discussion
The SMC Systems
• Refinement of rules (2009 NERT process)
‐ Additional methods to calculate Reference Consumption
‐ Allocation Management section introduced
‐ Eskom agreed to fund and develop a national Allocation Management System (AMS)
* full auditability and reporting
‐ Billing system only to calculate Excess Charges
‐ AMS will send final allocation per customer, per day to relevant billing system to compare with actual consumption
* 1‐way traffic. Billing dates not known
‐ Eskom DON’T WANT to host and/or operate AMS + Capital to be refunded
2010/03/15
18
Decisions SMC
• December 2009 Eskom decision
‐
Eskom will fund and deliver extended national AMS system
*
*
*
*
*
*
‐
Reference Consumption Calculator
AMS based on latest NERT accepted rules
Simple bilateral trade registration
Originally 500 users, daily data back‐up, 7 days system recovery
12 months hosting & support
Scalable for 40 000 users, real time data back‐up and system recovery onto back‐up system
Building of trading system left to Industry / private sector
* STRATE investigating (with JSE)
• Delivery
‐
‐
‐
Implementation and testing in various stages
Full implementation by end July 2010
Eskom still don’t want to operate the extended AMS system
2010/03/15
19
Systems for Self Managed Conservation
Self‐registration & selection of Ref. Consumption
Reference Consumption Calculator Self‐management of Allocations, within own account
System Operation constraints
Allocation Management System
Daily export of final allocation
Loading of Billing data by Licensees
2010/03/15
Billing Billing system
Billing system
Billing system
system
Self‐registration of bilateral Trades
“private”
Bilateral & Auction
trading system 20
Re‐prioritised AMS system
Release
Customer Deliverable
User Registration
Load annual energy allocations
Load network constraints
Spread allocation
Plan allocation
Manage allocation
ic
s
Mitigate allocation
a
B
Export allocations
Auditing (Transaction trails)
Production Readiness (Release 1)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
s. 2
n
Co ator 22
l
u
2
lc
1
1
1
1
1
AM
Import 84 Monthly Sales Values
Import Account Configuration
Cross Summations
3 Baseline‐method calculations
f.
e
R
Reporting (Reference Consumption Calc)
Ca
2010/03/15
Priority
S
29 Jan
Done
Done
29 Jan
29 Jan
29 Jan
12 Feb
29 Feb
End Feb
05-Mar
mid April
21
Re-prioritised AMS system
Customer Deliverable
Group Registration
Group Transfers & Mitigation
Bi‐lateral Trading
Change Requests (1)
RTC Granting
Release
3
3
3
3
3
ng
i
& ad
s
tr
p
l
ou era
r
G lat
Bi
Reporting (Basic)
, 4
n
VPS Adjustments
e s4
G
Supplementary generation (Type a,b,c RTC)
l. tion 4
p
p ra
On‐Line Forms Configuration
4
u
a
S cl
On‐Line Forms Creation/Editing
4
,
e
S
Change Requests (2)
4
VP n g d
m
s
n
Dynamic SO Constraint Calculations (Config)
tio 5
n
Dynamic SO Constraint Calculations (Calculate)
ve g 5
r
Reporting (Extended)
e tin 5
t
in or
Change Requests (3) (Support Mode)
5
O
p
S re
Change Requests (4) (1 year after)
6
&
2010/03/15
Priority
2
2
2
3
End May
2
2
2
2
2
End June
Ready for full SMC
implementation
3
3
3
End July
22
What is the role of government
Agenda
 Why conserve?
 What could we contribute.
 What are our options?
 How ready is SMC?
 What is the role of government?
 What must I do?
 Discussion
Cabinet approved in late 2009 four critical areas of work
1. Policy – To establish an enabling framework for the requisite interventions.
2. System Security – Avoiding power cuts.
3. Enabling Economic Growth ‐ Making sure the system supports country growth and job creation objectives.
4. Governance and Delivery – Ensure clear accountability and assurance of delivery
The above critical areas of work must address short and medium term perspectives.
The State of RSA Policy Making
The Governance put in place early 2010
Government
Cabinet
Minsters
Inter‐Ministerial Council (IMC)
DG/DDG’s
Inter‐Departmental Task Team (IDTT)
10 X Work Tracks
Presidency
DoE
Ministries
DPE
DEAT
Nt
Specialist Work
Technical WG1
Technical WG1
Technical WG1
Technical WG1
Technical WG1
Inter‐Departmental Task Team (ID TT)
10 Tracks of work
Track Work
Resp
1
Restructuring of the Distribution Industry DoE 2
Producing a competent and sustainable IRP DoE 3
Managing all “Demand Side Initiatives” as set out in the approved IRP
DoE 4
Developing a Nuclear Strategy for RSA as set out in the approved IRP
DoE 5
Managing all aspects necessary to enable Non‐Eskom Generation as set out in the approved IRP
DoE 6
Managing all aspects necessary to enable renewable energy as set out in the approved IRP
DoE 7
Assessing and mitigating the effect of the electricity price increases set out in the approved IRP
Nt
8
Resolving the Kusile private equity placement
DPE
9
Resolving coal haulage and logistics issues
DPE
10
Getting stakeholder input and communicating the deliberations of the IDTT IDTT
26
What must I do
Agenda
 Why conserve?
 What could we contribute?
 What are our options?
 How ready is SMC?
 What is the role of government?
 What must I do?
 Discussion
Understand your baseline &
get it registered ASAP
Identify your opportunities to conserve
Now just do it
Discussion
Agenda
 Why conserve?
 What could we contribute?
 What are our options?
 How ready is SMC?
 What is the role of government?
 What must I do?
 Discussion