www. udel.edu/nationalagenda
This program is supported in part by
W W W. U D E L . E D U / N AT I O N A L A G E N D A
The William P. Frank Foundation
of Delaware.
Thursday, October 31, 13
1
This program is supported in part by
The William P. Frank
Foundation
of Delaware
Thursday, October 31, 13
2
Thursday, October 31, 13
3
Thursday, October 31, 13
4
The Poll
Representa/ve sample of 902 adult Delawareans
Telephone survey interviews
• 541 landline
• 361 cell phone
September 2-­‐16, 2013
Princeton Research Associates Interna/onal
Sampling error: +/-­‐3.9%
Weighted to correct demographic discrepancies
Thursday, October 31, 13
5
How much do Delawareans follow poli4cs?
Thursday, October 31, 13
6
ARen/on to News
“How closely do you follow news about poli/cal events and figures in [place]?”
100%
75%
Washington
67%
Delaware
60%
50%
41%
33%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Very/somewhat
Not too/not at all
7
How do Delawareans follow state poli4cs?
Thursday, October 31, 13
8
Sources of News about Delaware Poli/cs
“How do you get most of your news about poli/cal figures and events in Delaware?” [All men/ons]
100%
75%
50%
45%
?
30%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Television
Internet
28%
Newspaper
7%
6%
Interpersonal
Radio
9
What issues top the Delaware public’s agenda?
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10
Most Important Issue Facing Delaware
100%
“What do you think is the most important problem facing Delaware today?” [First men/on]
75%
50%
29%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Jobs
12%
10%
7%
7%
5%
Education
Economy
Crime
Government
Environment
11
What do Delawareans think about na4onal poli4cians?
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12
Favorability toward Na/onal Democrats
“Is your overall opinion of [name] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?”
100%
Favorable
75%
Unfavorable
Never heard of/Can't rate
65%
60%
65%
50%
35%
28%
25%
7%
5%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Barack Obama
28%
Joe Biden
7%
Hillary Clinton
13
Favorability toward Na/onal Republicans
“Is your overall opinion of [name] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?”
100%
Favorable
Unfavorable
Never heard of/Can't rate
75%
56%
53%
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
39%
24%
31%
30%
20%
Chris Christie
Paul Ryan
26%
21%
Marco Rubio
14
What do Delawareans think about state poli4cians?
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15
Favorability toward DE Members of Congress “Is your overall opinion of [name] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?”
100%
Favorable
75%
Unfavorable
Never heard of/Can't rate
61%
47%
50%
47%
34%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
19%
Tom Carper
20%
24%
Chris Coons
29%
19%
John Carney
16
Favorability toward Delaware State Officials
“Is your overall opinion of [name] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?”
100%
75%
Favorable
Unfavorable
Never heard of/Can't rate
64%
62%
59%
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
28%
18%
Jack Markell
20%
17%
Beau Biden
19%
12%
Chip Flowers
17
Favorability toward O’Donnell, Tea Party “Is your overall opinion of [name] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?”
100%
Favorable
Unfavorable
Never heard of/Can't rate
75%
50%
43%
30%
28%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
42%
Christine O'Donnell
32%
26%
The Tea Party
18
How does the 2014 Senate race look right now?
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2014: Coons vs. O’Donnell 100%
“If the Senate candidates from Delaware next year were
[ROTATE: Chris Coons the Democrat and Chris/ne O’Donnell the Republican], who would you vote for?”
75%
50%
51%
28%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
14%
Coons
O'Donnell
Neither/Other Candidate
8%
Don't Know/Refused
20
Coons vs. O’Donnell by County
“If the Senate candidates from Delaware next year were [Chris Coons the Democrat and Chris9ne O’Donnell the Republican], who would you vote for?”
100%
Coons
O'Donnell
Neither/other
75%
56%
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
41%
44%
39%
35%
22%
14%
New Castle
13%
Kent
13%
Sussex
21
Is Delaware red, blue, or purple?
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Party Iden/fica/on in Delaware
“In poli/cs TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?”
100%
75%
50%
40%
34%
22%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Democrat
Independent/Other
Republican
23
Party Iden/fica/on by County “In poli/cs TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?”
100%
Democrat
Independent/other
Republican
75%
50%
41%
39%
38%
42%
29%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
36%
21%
20%
New Castle
35%
Kent
Sussex
24
Do Delawareans trust the federal government?
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Trust in the Government in Washington “How much of the /me can you trust the government in Washington to do what is right?”
100%
75%
65%
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
20%
12%
3%
Just about always
Most of the time
Only some of the time
Never (volunteered)
26
Hot BuEon Poli4cal Issues
Government Surveillance of Internet and Email
Same Sex Marriage
Felon Vo/ng Rights
Voter ID Laws
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Poli/cal Communica/on
Experimental Effects and Public Opinion
No Image
How much do you like the UD mascot?
How much do you like the UD mascot?
How much do you like How much do you like the UD mascot?
the UD mascot?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Not at all
Not much
Some
A lot
I Don’t Know
Thursday, October 31, 13
Not at all
Not much
Some
A lot
I Don’t Know
Not at all
Not much
Some
A lot
I Don’t Know
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Not at all
Not much
Some
A lot
I Don’t Know
28
28
E-­‐Surveillance
“Do you think the U.S. government should be able to monitor everyone’s email and other online ac;vi;es?”
Baseline Opinion
Thursday, October 31, 13
“A Good Reason”
Condi4on
“A Good Reason….But”
Condi4on
“…to help prevent future terrorist aEacks?”
“…to help prevent future terrorist aEacks, even if it intrudes on personal privacy?”
29
Low Support for Electronic-­‐Surveillance
“Do you think the U.S. government should be able to monitor everyone’s email and other online ac/vi/es, or not?”
100%
Yes
75%
+20
points
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
38%
+15
points
33%
18%
Should U.S. Government Monitor Emails & Online Ac/vi/es
...To Prevent Future Terrorism
...To Prevent Future Terrorism,
even if it Intrudes on Personal Privacy
30
Same-­‐Sex Marriage
Baseline Opinion
“Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to legally marry?
Thursday, October 31, 13
Delaware Law Condi4on
“AS YOU MAY KNOW, Delaware recently passed a law allowing gays and lesbians to legally marry. Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this law?”
31
Strong Support for Same-­‐Sex Marriage
“Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to legally marry?”
100%
75%
50%
Mostly Favor/Strongly Favor
62%
Mostly Oppose/Strongly Oppose
62%
38%
36%
25%
0%
Baseline Opinion
Thursday, October 31, 13
..DE recently passed a law
32
Supreme Court Ruling on Same-­‐Sex Marriage
100%
75%
“AS YOU MAY KNOW,
the Supreme Court recently ruled that
married gay and lesbian couples are en4tled to federal benefits.
Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this ruling?”
67%
50%
33%
25%
0%
Mostly Favor/Strongly Favor
Thursday, October 31, 13
Mostly Oppose/Strongly Oppose
33
Interpersonal Contact and Opinions on Same-­‐Sex Marriage
“Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to legally marry?”
100%
% Mostly Favor/Strongly Favor
77%
75%
56%
50%
64%
46%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Don't personal know anyone who is gay/lesbian
I know someone who is gay/lesbian
I have a close family member/friend who
is gay/lesbian
I know a married
gay/lesbian couple
34
Ideology Changes Nothing
Support for Same Sex Marriage & Interpersonal Contact
Conservative
Moderate
86%
69%
56%
70%
64%
42%
62%
48%
Liberal
89%
+20 Points
86%
+30 Points
+29 Points
55%
26%
Don't personally know anyone who is gay/lesbian
Thursday, October 31, 13
I know someone who is gay/lesbian
I have a close family member/friend who
is gay/lesbian
I know a married
gay/lesbian couple
35
Felon Vo/ng Rights
“Would you strongly approve, mostly approve, mostly disapprove, or strongly disapprove of a law that allowed felons convicted of non-­‐violent crimes to vote aEer they are released from jail?“
Baseline Opinion
“Let Them Vote”
Condi4on
“Too Bad”
Condi4on
“Where DE Stands” Condi4on
“Some people argue that felons should have the right to vote when they have paid their debt to society.”
“Some people argue that felons sacrifice their
right to vote when
they break the law.”
“the Delaware legislature recently passed an amendment to the state consEtuEon that allows felons convicted of non-­‐violent crimes to vote aGer they are released from jail.”
+
Baseline
+
Baseline
+
Baseline
Thursday, October 31, 13
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Strong Support for Felon Vo/ng Rights
“Would you strongly approve, mostly approve, mostly disapprove, or strongly disapprove of a law that allowed felons convicted of non-­‐violent crimes to vote
aTer they are released from jail?“
100%
75%
Approve/Strongly Approve
72%
72%
Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove
66%
66%
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
28%
Baseline
28%
Paid Debt to Society
34%
Lost rights when they broke the law
34%
Delaware passed an amendment
37
Voter ID Laws
“Does Delaware require a photo ID to vote?”
Don’t know
7%
No
23%
Yes
70%
Thursday, October 31, 13
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Voter ID Laws
“Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose
or strongly oppose voter ID laws?”
Baseline Opinion
“Hurts Eligible Voters”
“Hurts Seniors”
Condi4on
“Hurts Blacks”
Condi4on
“Opponents of voter ID laws argue they will prevent people who are eligible to vote from voEng.”
“Opponents of voter ID laws argue they will prevent people who are eligible to vote from voEng, and that these laws will affect ELDERLY VOTERS parEcularly hard.”
“Opponents of voter ID laws argue they will prevent people who are eligible to vote from voEng, and that these laws will affect AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS parEcularly hard.”
+
Baseline Opinion
Thursday, October 31, 13
+
Baseline Opinion
+
Baseline Opinion
39
Strong Support for Voter ID Laws, but ….
“What is your opinion? Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose voter ID laws?”
100%
82%
Mostly Favor/Strongly Favor
73%
75%
68%
63%
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Baseline
Prevent eligible voters from vo/ng
…will affect elderly voters par/cularly hard
…will affect African American voters par/cularly hard
40
Racial Differences in Support for Voter ID Laws
“What is your opinion? Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose,
or strongly oppose voter ID laws?”
% Mostly Favor/Strongly Favor
100%
75%
Whites
86%
72%
Racial Minori/es
78%
71%
57%
64%
50%
73%
38%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Baseline
Prevent eligible voters from vo/ng
…will affect elderly voters par/cularly hard
…will affect African American voters par/cularly hard
41
Age Differences in Support for Voter ID Laws
“What is your opinion? Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose voter ID laws?”
% Mostly Favor/Strongly Favor
100%
81%
83%
75%
50+ years
73%
74%
Less Than 50 years
67%
70%
71%
72%
50%
25%
0%
Thursday, October 31, 13
Baseline
Prevent eligible voters from vo/ng
…will affect elderly voters par/cularly hard
…will affect African American voters par/cularly hard
42
Conclusions
• Delaware is a “Blue” state
– Strong support for same sex marriage
– Strong support for felon vo/ng
– Low support for electronic surveillance
• Delaware opinion is malleable
– Threats to safety affect opinions on E-­‐surveillance
– Threats to groups affect opinion on voter ID laws
Thursday, October 31, 13
43
www. udel.edu/nationalagenda
This program is supported in part by
W W W. U D E L . E D U / N AT I O N A L A G E N D A
The William P. Frank Foundation
of Delaware.
Thursday, October 31, 13
44