Improving impact measurement to make the most of
demand management
Monash Sustainability Institute Seminar
Amandine Denis, Head of Research
Why demand management?
• Network upgrades will be the
main component of electricity
price increase in the next few
years
• Increase in peak demand drives
the need for new infrastructure
• Demand management can
avoid or differ the need for
infrastructure upgrades
 Benefits to distributors
 Benefits to consumers
• However, most of the time, split
incentives exist
SOURCE: The Climate Institute, Electricity prices: the facts (2011)
1
Ergon Energy is an atypical case where incentives align
•1 Financial benefits due to
•2 Other benefits
vertical integration
- Postponing costly
infrastructure upgrades to
link remote communities
to the main network
- Decreasing consumption
of diesel in off-grid
remote communities
- Better insight into customer
requirements and practices
- Improved customer satisfaction
• Reduced energy costs
• Increased ‘value add’
through incentives, rebates
and in-home consultation
Ergon Energy has conducted a number of demand management programs in
the last 5 years, and they asked us to help them understand
what are the relative financial benefits of each option
SOURCE: Ergon Network Management Plan 2011/12 to 2015/16; CRA report, 2006
2
We analysed six of Ergon’s demand management trials
Aimed at reducing overall energy consumption (diesel generation):
 PowerSavvy – intensive consultation program in three
isolated communities
Aimed at reducing peak demand for electricity:
 Energy Savers – low-intensity consultation program in
Mackay and Mt Isa suburbs
 Townsville Solar city program – high-intensity
consultation program in Townsville suburb + solar panels
installation program
Ergon requested
help to compare the
efficiency and
effectiveness of
various demand
management
programs based on
past trials…
 Rewards Based Tariffs – pricing system to incentivise
demand reduction on extreme peak days
 Air conditioning direct load trial - incentive to install load
controllers on existing AC systems, controlled by Ergon
 Pool pumps trial – incentive to investigate ways to reduce
pool pump demand in peak periods
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
…and also to define
what optimised
versions of programs
would look like.
3
In order to create the program cost curve, we followed a five-step process
•A
First, we estimated the baseline consumption profile for the average
household targeted by past programs (North Queensland)
•B
Second, we assessed the savings that could be delivered by a set of
actions undertaken by a typical household
•C
Third, we analysed the programs: how many households can be
expected to take up a program, and how much savings can be
expected for each household taking up the program (more complex
for consultations)
•D
Fourth, we assessed how much reduction would remain after 5 years
to make all programs comparable
•E
Finally, we assessed how the costs would decrease if the programs
were to be operated at larger scale
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
4
A
First, we estimated the baseline consumption profile for the average
household in the regions targeted by demand management programs
Peak demand definition: extremely hot summer day, maximum hourly consumption (typically within 5pm-8pm)
Average per household, % of total consumption
Total = 4.1 kW
By end use
By piece of equipment (top 10)
Other
Cooking
Microwave
Fans
12%
11%
Electronics and
entertainment
Cooling 57%
5%
3% 2%
Electric oven
4%
Refrigerators
5% Lighting
10%
4%
Pool 5%
54%
Lighting
5%
Refrigeration
0%
5%
1%
Pool
1% 3%
Appliances
Water heating
Space heating Laundry
7%
Electric cook-top
Air Conditioners
7%
Televisions
3 pieces of equipment make up 2/3 of peak demand
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
5
B
Second, we assessed the savings that could be delivered by a set of
actions undertaken by a typical household
Replace electric hot water system with a solar system
Service Air conditioner check filter, refrigerant levels and clear vegetation)
Upgrade from old 2* fridge to new 3.5*
Switch to gas for cooking – oven
Use shading (curtains and pelmets)
Fit load controllers to new medium air conditioners (demand ready AC)
Switch to gas for cooking - cooktop
Weather-strip homes
Replace electric hot water system with gas storage/continuous flow or 5 star storage
Upgrade to a 7 + star LCD TV (from average 5 star)
Run pool filter outside of peak times (4pm to 8pm)
Do not use appliances during peak times (4pm to 8pm)
Turn off/surrender second fridge
Install water efficient tap fittings (tap aerators)
Cost to household
($/yr)
250
100
50
0
0.0
0.4
0.8
-50
-200
-250
-300
-350
1.6
2.0
2.4
Peak demand savings available (kW/HH)*
Paint roof white
Turn off TVs when not in use
-100
-150
1.2
Turn off lights when not in the room
Upgrade your ceiling insulation from R2 to R4
Placing the fridge to allow for air circulation around the coils
Change thermostat on fridge
Do not use electric stove during peak times (4pm to 8pm), use BBQ/pre-cooked meals
Install water-efficient low flow showerheads/roses
Switch incandescent bulbs to CFLs
Switch traditional halogens to high-efficiency halogens
Buy 7+ star LCD TV to replace plasma TV
Buy best-in class AC instead of average AC
Switch appliances off at the wall to reduce standby load
Replace electric hot water system with an electric heat pump system
Behaviour changes – continuous
Change air conditioning temperature to 25 degrees
Behaviour changes – one-off
Change old AC to new AC
Use fan in conjunction to AC
Purchase/ retrofit decisions
Swap pool pump to T33
Upgrade your pool pump filter to a new unit that complies with new 2009 MEPS
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
* Does not include interaction between different actions represented
6
C
The impact of a program is the sum of the impact of each action
promoted
Driven by equipment
ownership profile and
attractiveness of
actions to households
Expected
savings from
program (on
average per
household)
=
Expected %
households
taking up
program
Expected
savings from
action X
x
x
Expected %
households
taking up
action X
+
Expected
savings from
behaviourbased actions
technologybased actions
Driven by
community size
and receptivity
Driven by baseline
and actions impact
calculations
Driven by community
size and receptivity
7
C
For different community categories, we identified how many actions
lead to the lowest unit cost for Ergon
Peak demand reduction
Rebate
Operating cost
($/kW)
Given for free by Ergon
Installed by Ergon
Replace electric hot water system with an electric heat pump system
30,000
Replace electric hot water system with a solar system
Install water-efficient low flow showerheads/roses
Weather-strip homes
Weather-strip homes
Upgrade your ceiling insulation from R2 to R4
Swap pool pump to T33
Switch to gas for cooking - oven
Switch incandescent bulbs to CFLs in living areas
Fit load controllers to new medium AC
Switch traditional halogens to highefficiency halogens in living areas
0
0.025
0.050
0.075
0.100
0.125
Paint roof white
Rebate - Swap pool pump to T33
0.150
0.175
Optimum set of activities for
urban high and low intensity
consultation programs
0.200
0.225
Peak demand savings
(kW/HH)*
Switch incandescent bulbs to CFLs - living areas
Switch traditional halogens to high-efficiency halogens - living areas
Switch to gas for cooking - cooktop
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
* Does not include interaction between different actions represented
8
D
Fourth, we assessed how much reduction would remain after 5 years
to make all programs comparable
Persistence of activities over time
Percentage of original impact, %
100
No attrition
90
80
70
60
10% attrition per year
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year 0
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
9
E
Finally, we assessed how the costs would decrease if the programs
were to be operated at larger scale
Cost ($/kW)
Cost ($/kW)
Rewards based tariffs
Urban or suburban
areas – high intensity
Rewards based tariffs
Urban or suburban area –
high intensity
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Expected peak demand savings (kW/HH)
Urban or suburban areas – low intensity
Pool pumps program
Air conditioning load control (new units, medium to large)
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
Expected peak demand savings (kW/HH)
Urban or suburban area– low intensity
Pool pumps program
Air conditioning load control (new units, medium to large)
10
Based on our analysis, we built a comparison of the different programs to
reduce demand in urban and suburban areas
Peak demand - Future costs (estimated in case of extension to business-as-usual)
Cost ($/kW)
Rewards based tariffs
8,000
Urban or suburban area – high intensity
0
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
Urban or suburban area – low intensity
0.250
0.300
Expected peak demand savings (kW/HH)
Pool pumps program
Air conditioning load control (new units, medium to large)
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
11
Based on our analysis, we built a comparison of the different programs to
reduce demand in urban and suburban areas
Peak demand - Future costs (estimated in case of extension to business-as-usual)
Cost ($/kW)
Rewards based tariffs
8,000
Urban or suburban area – high intensity
Low
cost
Large volume
0
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
Urban or suburban area – low intensity
0.250
0.300
Expected peak demand savings (kW/HH)
Pool pumps program
Air conditioning load control (new units, medium to large)
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
12
Based on our analysis, we built a comparison of the different programs to
reduce demand in urban and suburban areas
Peak demand - Future costs (estimated in case of extension to business-as-usual)
Cost ($/kW)
Rewards based tariffs
8,000
Benefit of
postponing
Urban or suburban area – high intensity
Low
cost
Large volume
0
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
Urban or suburban area – low intensity
0.250
0.300
Expected peak demand savings (kW/HH)
Pool pumps program
Air conditioning load control (new units, medium to large)
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
13
Based on our analysis, we built a comparison of the different programs to
reduce demand in urban and suburban areas
Peak demand - Future costs (estimated in case of extension to business-as-usual)
Cost ($/kW)
Rewards based tariffs
8,000
Benefit of
postponing
Urban or suburban area – high intensity
Low
cost
Large volume
0
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
Urban or suburban area – low intensity
0.250
0.300
Expected peak demand savings (kW/HH)
Pool pumps program
Air conditioning load control (new units, medium to large)
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
14
We also built a comparison of programs to reduce annual demand in
isolated communities
Annual consumption - Future costs (estimated in case of extension to business as usual)
Cost ($/MWh)
Consultations in isolated communities – low receptivity
1,500
Consultations in isolated communities – medium receptivity
0
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
Expected Annual consumption savings (kWh/HH)
Consultations in isolated communities – high receptivity
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
15
Much can be done to improve the outcomes of demand management
programs in future
•A
First, focus on measurement from outset of projects helps to
ensure quality data is collected to quantify program success
•B
Second, potential exists to facilitate data sharing between
organisations undertaking demand management programs
C
Third, potential exists to develop voluntary data collection
protocols for consistency and comparability across programs
SOURCE: ClimateWorks analysis
16
A
First, focus on measurement from outset of projects helps to ensure
quality data is collected to quantify program success
Collection of quality data at all program stages is key to developing a more robust tool
that can better estimate future program costs and benefits, e.g.
• Community characteristics
• Actions taken
• Energy savings
• Peak demand reduction
• Drivers for take up of program/actions
• Cost
www.climateworksaustralia.org
17
B
Second, potential exists to facilitate data sharing between
organisations undertaking demand management programs
• Others are also doing trials, both within Australia and internationally
• Sharing can improve data gathering and quality of data for all
• Examples of how others are doing it well:
-
International Energy Agency – Demand Side Management Program (INDEEP)
www.ieadsm.org
-
California Energy Commission and California Public Utilities Commission – Database for
Energy Efficient Resources (DEER) www.energy.ca.gov/deer/
-
Community for Energy, Environment and Development – LEAP (Long range Energy
Alternatives Planning System) Technology and Environment Database
www.energycommunity.org/
-
Minnesota Department of Commerce and Energy – Deemed Savings Database
http://mn.gov/commerce/energy/topics/conservation/Design-Resources/DeemedSavings.jsp
18
C
Third, potential exists to develop voluntary data collection protocols
to ensure consistency and comparability across programs
• A voluntary data collection protocol could be used to improve demand management
programs.
• Developing and agreeing on performance measures and how/when to apply them is
a key step in establishing protocol
• ClimateWorks and Ergon are keen to collaborate with others on developing this
protocol.
www.climateworksaustralia.org
19
C
Third, potential exists to develop voluntary data collection protocols
to ensure consistency and comparability across programs
• A voluntary data collection protocol could be used to improve demand management
programs.
• Developing and agreeing on performance measures and how/when to apply them is
a key step in establishing protocol
• ClimateWorks and Ergon are keen to collaborate with others on developing this
protocol.
www.climateworksaustralia.org
20
Questions?
Amandine Denis
Head of Research
E: amandine.denis@climateworksaustralia.org
P: (03) 9902 0743
www.climateworksaustralia.org