Accelerating the transition to electric vehicles Alan Finkel, October 2010 CTO, Better Place Australia The problem • Global warming from carbon dioxide emissions • Peak oil • Poor air quality in cities Getting worse! • 900 million cars worldwide now • Massive growth predicted in China and India 2 Electric vehicles are the answer Electric vehicles are the future But to start, a little bit of history… 3 First Wave 1890-1910 Electric cab, New York 1897 First automobile to reach 100 km/h, in 1899 Second Wave 1990-2000 1990 Californian legislation: 10% of cars sold in 2003 must be zero-emission Withdrawn in early 2000s Third Wave 2008 future Tesla Tesla amazing performance Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, 2006 7 Tesla ultra-low CO2 emissions 8 But most of all, these will be great cars... 9 Nissan Tesla roadster Tesla sedan Coda Mitsubishi BMW Mercedes SLS AMG E-Cell Audi Renault Secret for Third-Wave success? Seven reasons... 19 Reason 1 – operating C02 emissions Car emissions National emissions 8% ≈100% Petrol Electric (green) Petrol Electric Reason 2 – oil consumption National consumption 30% Car consumption ≈100% National imports 75% Petrol Electric Petrol Electric Reason 3 – market perceptions 22 Reason 4 – improved batteries km/kg life safety 1972 Stanley Whittingham Exxon employee “Costs are expected to come down by nearly 70 percent in the next few years.” President Obama, July 2010 23 Reason 5 – Better Place infrastructure Reason 6 – Better Place battery swap stations 25 Reason 6 – Better Place battery swap stations 26 Why not carry a spare in the boot? 27 Reason 7 – lower operating costs Trains & trams have used electricity since late 1800s because it is cheap, clean and reliable Cost comparison for cars petrol: 12 cents per kilometre electricity: 3 to 4 cents per kilometre 28 All good, but what are customer concerns? 1) Price anxiety • batteries are expensive at low volumes • impacts total cost of ownership 2) Range anxiety • country driving • off-street parking 3) Battery anxiety 29 How to eliminate these anxieties? Better Place Solution Subscription model • Better Place pays for and owns the battery • Total cost of ownership near or below petrol vehicle • Subscriber receives energy at home, work, public car parks, battery switch stations 30 How to eliminate these anxieties? Better Place Solution Range Extension Battery Swap Stations • Private charge spots • Public charge spots • Battery swap stations • Eliminates Cost Anxiety • Eliminates Range Anxiety • Eliminates Battery Anxiety 31 Electricity supply and impact 32 Importance of Green Electricity On existing mix of electricity generation • 30% reduction typically On “green” electricity • 100% reduction Better Place subscribers in Australia are guaranteed green electricity • Primarily wind and hydro 33 EVs are well matched to renewables • Strong wind • Strong sun 34 EVs are well matched to baseload power worst-case charging Power Best-case charging noon midnight noon NSW Australia – 1 million electric vehicles Air quality Conventional cars emit • Sulphur oxides • Nitrogen oxides • Soot • Old petrol cars are worst 36 Air quality Electric vehicles emit • No sulphur oxides • No nitrogen oxides • No soot • Old EVs remain clean No exhaust pipe! 37 Will batteries be the next form of pollution? Minimize problem by postponing the “end-of-life” event • While creating significant value Batteries withdrawn from vehicle are still good • 80% residual capacity • a million batteries each year • “Second-life” opportunity • Storage for renewables • Supply peak demand Does it add up to much? 38 Enough to power Australia for 8 hours 39 Ultimately, recycle 90% recyclable 40 Embodied energy Life Cycle Analyses across Entire Lifecycle Road Glider Drive-train Car: Mantenance and EOL Battery: Production, maintenance, EOL Operation LCA method: ICEV EI 99 H/A BEV CED ICEV BEV ICEV GWP BEV ADP ICEV BEV 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 European electricity mix, Golf size vehicles, petrol based 5.2 L/100 km Sources: (1) Notter et al. “Contribution of Li-Ion Batteries to the Environmental Impact of Electric Vehicles.” Env Sci Tech. 2010; (2) Gauch et al. Presentation by EMPA (Swiss Federal Lab for Materials Testing and Research), 2009 160 180 Why electricity instead of biofuels? Quantity of biofuels required is huge Crop diversion Be smart – use biofuels where there is no choice • aeroplanes • Interstate trucks • ships 42 Why batteries instead of hydrogen? 100 kWh electricity Electric Car Hydrogen Car Losses Electrolysis Compression Distribution Leakage ICE engine 15 kWh mechanical 70 kWh mechanical 43 Global progress 44 EV taxis in Japan right now •World’s first electric taxi project using switchable batteries •Funded by Japanese government in Roppongi Hills • Allows heavy use, continuous driving 45 46 Initial test of full solution in Israel, 2H 2011 Renault Fluence, first full size EV developed for mass market Charging at home and public charge spots Battery switch stations to enable full country mobility Integration with utility partner 47 Australian progress 48 Canberra pilot on track Pilot Construction Approvals Planning Announced 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 49 Can we accelerate the transition? 50 Opportunities in Australia Car design? Infrastructure Develop abundant zero-emissions electricity • Solar electricity • Wind electricity • Hydro • Other 51 What can government do to help? Price on carbon dioxide emissions • take into account externalities such as health and environment consequences Price on size • big houses • big cars Price on excessive per capita use • water • electricity 52 The big challenge – global warming How do we cut carbon dioxide emissions without • hurting the economy? • undermining our lifestyle? Solutions include • downsizing • behavioural change • price driven? • clean electricity • electric cars 53 Ultimate solution – Electron Economy We could cut GHG emissions 46% by • converting to clean electricity (38%) • converting to electric cars (8%) To cut emissions 71% • electrify other transport (8%) • replace non-electrical stationary energy (17%) • (half of remaining 29% is agriculture) Not in isolation! • Combine with efficiencies & behavioural change 54 55