Accelerating the transition to electric vehicles Alan Finkel, October 2010

advertisement
Accelerating the
transition to electric
vehicles
Alan Finkel, October 2010
CTO, Better Place Australia
The problem
• Global warming from carbon dioxide emissions
• Peak oil
• Poor air quality in cities
Getting worse!
• 900 million cars worldwide now
• Massive growth predicted in China and India
2
Electric vehicles are the answer
Electric vehicles are the future
But to start, a little bit of history…
3
First Wave 1890-1910
Electric cab, New York
1897
First automobile to reach 100
km/h, in 1899
Second Wave 1990-2000
1990 Californian legislation:
10% of cars sold in 2003 must be zero-emission
Withdrawn in early 2000s
Third Wave 2008  future
Tesla
Tesla amazing performance
Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, 2006
7
Tesla ultra-low CO2 emissions
8
But most of all, these will be great cars...
9
Nissan
Tesla roadster
Tesla sedan
Coda
Mitsubishi
BMW
Mercedes
SLS AMG E-Cell
Audi
Renault
Secret for Third-Wave success?
Seven reasons...
19
Reason 1 – operating C02 emissions
Car emissions
National emissions
8%
≈100%
Petrol
Electric
(green)
Petrol
Electric
Reason 2 – oil consumption
National consumption
30%
Car consumption
≈100%
National imports
75%
Petrol
Electric
Petrol
Electric
Reason 3 – market perceptions
22
Reason 4 – improved batteries
km/kg 
life 
safety 
1972
Stanley Whittingham
Exxon employee
“Costs are expected to come down by nearly
70 percent in the next few years.”
President Obama, July 2010
23
Reason 5 – Better Place infrastructure
Reason 6 – Better Place battery swap stations
25
Reason 6 – Better Place battery swap stations
26
Why not carry a spare in the boot?
27
Reason 7 – lower operating costs
Trains & trams have used electricity since late 1800s
because it is cheap, clean and reliable
Cost comparison for cars
petrol:
12 cents per kilometre
electricity: 3 to 4 cents per kilometre
28
All good, but what are customer concerns?
1) Price anxiety
• batteries are expensive at low volumes
• impacts total cost of ownership
2) Range anxiety
• country driving
• off-street parking
3) Battery anxiety
29
How to eliminate these anxieties?
Better Place Solution
Subscription
model
• Better Place pays for and
owns the battery
• Total cost of ownership near
or below petrol vehicle
• Subscriber receives energy
at home, work, public car
parks, battery switch stations
30
How to eliminate these anxieties?
Better Place Solution
Range
Extension
Battery Swap
Stations
• Private charge spots
• Public charge spots
• Battery swap stations
• Eliminates Cost Anxiety
• Eliminates Range Anxiety
• Eliminates Battery Anxiety
31
Electricity supply and impact
32
Importance of Green Electricity
On existing mix of electricity generation 
• 30% reduction typically
On “green” electricity 
• 100% reduction
Better Place subscribers in Australia are guaranteed
green electricity
• Primarily wind and hydro
33
EVs are well matched to renewables
• Strong wind
• Strong sun
34
EVs are well matched to baseload power
worst-case charging
Power
Best-case charging
noon
midnight
noon
NSW Australia – 1 million electric vehicles
Air quality
Conventional cars emit
• Sulphur oxides
• Nitrogen oxides
• Soot
• Old petrol cars are worst
36
Air quality
Electric vehicles emit
• No sulphur oxides
• No nitrogen oxides
• No soot
• Old EVs remain clean
No exhaust pipe!
37
Will batteries be the next form of pollution?
Minimize problem by postponing the “end-of-life”
event
• While creating significant value
Batteries withdrawn from vehicle are still good
• 80% residual capacity
• a million batteries each year
• “Second-life” opportunity
• Storage for renewables
• Supply peak demand
Does it add up to much?
38
Enough to power Australia for 8 hours
39
Ultimately, recycle
90% recyclable
40
Embodied energy
Life Cycle Analyses across Entire Lifecycle
Road
Glider
Drive-train
Car: Mantenance and EOL
Battery: Production, maintenance, EOL
Operation
LCA method:
ICEV
EI 99 H/A
BEV
CED
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
GWP
BEV
ADP
ICEV
BEV
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
European electricity mix, Golf size vehicles, petrol based 5.2 L/100 km
Sources: (1) Notter et al. “Contribution of Li-Ion Batteries to the Environmental Impact of Electric Vehicles.” Env Sci Tech. 2010;
(2) Gauch et al. Presentation by EMPA (Swiss Federal Lab for Materials Testing and Research), 2009
160
180
Why electricity instead of biofuels?
Quantity of biofuels required is huge
Crop diversion
Be smart –
use biofuels where there is no choice
• aeroplanes
• Interstate trucks
• ships
42
Why batteries instead of hydrogen?
100 kWh
electricity
Electric
Car
Hydrogen
Car
Losses
Electrolysis
Compression
Distribution
Leakage
ICE engine
15 kWh
mechanical
70 kWh
mechanical
43
Global progress
44
EV taxis in Japan right now
•World’s first electric taxi project using switchable batteries
•Funded by Japanese government in Roppongi Hills
• Allows heavy use, continuous driving
45
46
Initial test of full solution in Israel, 2H 2011
Renault Fluence, first full
size EV developed for mass
market
Charging at home and public
charge spots
Battery switch stations to
enable full country mobility
Integration with utility
partner
47
Australian progress
48
Canberra pilot on track
Pilot
Construction
Approvals
Planning
Announced
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
49
Can we accelerate the transition?
50
Opportunities in Australia
Car design?
Infrastructure 
Develop abundant zero-emissions electricity
• Solar electricity
• Wind electricity
• Hydro
• Other
51
What can government do to help?
Price on carbon dioxide emissions
• take into account externalities such as health
and environment consequences
Price on size
• big houses
• big cars
Price on excessive per capita use
• water
• electricity
52
The big challenge – global warming
How do we cut carbon dioxide emissions without
• hurting the economy?
• undermining our lifestyle?
Solutions include
• downsizing
• behavioural change
• price driven?
• clean electricity
• electric cars
53
Ultimate solution – Electron Economy
We could cut GHG emissions 46% by
• converting to clean electricity (38%)
• converting to electric cars (8%)
To cut emissions 71%
• electrify other transport (8%)
• replace non-electrical stationary energy (17%)
• (half of remaining 29% is agriculture)
Not in isolation!
• Combine with efficiencies & behavioural change
54
55
Download