Cosmography with ground- and space-based detectors X LISA Symposium - Gainesville, Florida, May 19-23 2014 B.S. Sathyaprakash School of Physics and Astronomy, Cardiff University Friday, 23 May 2014 Outline Cosmography with LISA Difficulties and how we might mitigate some of them Cosmography with ground-based detectors Measuring host redshifts from GW observations alone Cosmography from a population of observed sources Friday, 23 May 2014 2 Why are inspirals standard sirens? Luminosity distance D can be inferred if one can� measure: the flux of radiation F and absolute luminosity L DL = L 4πF Schutz Nature1986 Flux of gravitational waves determined by amplitude of gravitational waves measured by our detectors Absolute luminosity can be inferred from the rate f˙ at which the frequency of a source changes Not unlike Cephied variables except that f˙ is completely determined by general relativity Therefore compact binaries are self-calibrating standard sirens Friday, 23 May 2014 3 4 Cosmography with LISA Friday, 23 May 2014 Cosmography from a single source Gravitational wave (GW) observations alone cannot measure the source’s redshift This is certainly true for binary black holes For binary neutron stars it might be a different story If it is possible to identify the host galaxy then can measure the source’s redshift in addition to luminosity distance An ideal tool for cosmography and synergy between EM and GW astronomy LISA can measure signals with a very high (amplitude) signal-to-noise ratio (~1000-10,000) Should be possible to distinguish between different cosmological models with a high-SNR single event Friday, 23 May 2014 5 6 eLISA, z=0.5 108 107 500 1000 1400 106 10 1600 5 1200 800 600 104 10 20 50 200 100 103 10 eLISA SNRs Inset: ET SNRs Inspiral signal only 10 20 400 300 40 60 100 140 2 180 10 1 140 101 20 10 102 103 104 105 M1 êMü Friday, 23 May 2014 106 107 108 Sathyaprakash and Schutz, LRR: 2014 7 Basic idea Diagram: Ned Wright: 2011 Red Shift z 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Luminosity Distance in Gpc Friday, 23 May 2014 7 Basic idea Diagram: Ned Wright: 2011 Red Shift z 2.3 1.6 ⧱ 0.8 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Luminosity Distance in Gpc Friday, 23 May 2014 7 Basic idea Diagram: Ned Wright: 2011 Red Shift z 2.3 1.6 ⧱ 0.8 ⧱ 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Luminosity Distance in Gpc Friday, 23 May 2014 7 Basic idea Diagram: Ned Wright: 2011 Red Shift z 2.3 1.6 ⧱ ⧱ 0.8 ⧱ 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Luminosity Distance in Gpc Friday, 23 May 2014 We really only measure But ... 8 The luminosity distance (redshifted comoving distance) and redshifted masses Mobs = (1 + z)Mintr , DL = (1 + z)D Cannot measure the source’s redshift without EM identification but this is difficult since GW detectors have poor sky localization at least that is what we thought until recently If we measure the source redshift we can deduce the intrinsic mass of the source and resolve redshift-mass degeneracy Distance measurement is corrupted by weak lensing Holz and Hughes 2005; Van Den Broeck et al 2010 Correcting for or mitigating lensing would be important Distance is strongly correlated with the unknown orbital inclination of the source with respect to line-of-sight Ajith and Bose 2009; Nissanke et al 2010 Friday, 23 May 2014 9 Localization Question: Mitigated by Higher Signal Harmonics Dominant radiation at twice the orbital frequency but radiation is emitted at all multiples of the orbital frequency Friday, 23 May 2014 Observed harmonics depend on the inclination of the binary 10 Black: Dominant harmonic Red: Dominant harmonic Green: Difference All-Dominant Friday, 23 May 2014 !"#$%&'()*+)%,#)-./012 Higher Signal Harmonics: Spectrum 3&'0 #%)12)4566718 Friday, 23 May 2014 11 Signal Harmonics and Sky Localization 12 Sky localization is improved by higher signal harmonics that were neglected in earlier studies Why does sky localization improve due to signal harmonics? Observed harmonics depend strongly on the inclination of the binary Inclination is strongly correlated with sky position Harmonics help break distance-inclination and inclination-sky position degeneracy Friday, 23 May 2014 rovement in terms parameter estimation when higher order terms are in included. higher order are included. significant improvement parameter 13es Level of Improvement ’S L !L !"S’L !Model ! R S ! lnD lnM "2 ) "6 (rad) "6 ) (rad) (10 (10 str) (10 SNR doesn’t change much 5 ; 106 $M % Distance improves by a 5 RWF 500.3 factor 1.2 12 2 6.0 of 0.8 2 FWF 54 0.88 4.3 4.6 Angular resolution "0:1 2 "0:2 RWF 68 1.1 110 4 4.7 improves by a13 factor of 10 FWF 50 0.58 3.5 or "0:8 1larger 0.5 170 3 RWF 22 0.25 3.3 97 0.17 correspond 26 2.7 Entries toFWF "0:5 3 "0:6 "2 RWF 68 0.74 150 3.1 different orientations FWF 81 0.19 13 2.5 2 the"0:8 5 RWF 400.9Uses 15only 84harmonic 2.3 dominant FWF 57 Uses0.11 8.1 1.7 all known harmonics "0:6 1 0.2 220 3 RWF 85 0.42 3.9 FWF 08 0.24 65 3.0 "0:1 3 Table "0:9 RWF 13 0.58 3.5 from410 6 FWF 75 0.45 300 2.9 Arun et al: 2007 4 6 45Friday, ' 10 ; 1:29 ' 10 $M% 23 May 2014 ’SS !! ’L Orientation SNR ! !t lnD !" lnM !" L!w C L !S Nclusters "2 ) "6 str) (rad (10(rad) (10"6 ) (10"6 ) (10 (sec) #m1 ; m2 $ ! #105 ; 106 $M% A1 512 750 1.2 31 1.7 0.3 0.25 0.8 6.0 2 0.068 754 0.88 4.3 0.050 4.6 23 1.2 0.088 A2 "0:1 2 "0:2 4 1168 1.1 110 4.7 21 1.7 2.2 0.062 1150 0.58 3.5 3 16 1.1 "0:8 0.27 0.033 A3 113 0.5 2722 0.25 170 12 2.6 3.5 & & &3.3 2497 2.7 9.7 0.17 1.1 "0:5 0.53 0.0096 A4 326 "0:6 "2 1868 0.74 150 15 1.2 3.1 & & &3.1 A5 213 "0:8 1781 0.19 2.5 5 12 0.58 0.9 0.27 0.011 37408.0 15 2.1 1.784 0.822.3 A6 1 8.1 0.2 2857 1.7 3 7.9 0.11 0.69"0:6 0.17 0.0062 2185 0.42 220 15 2.9 4.5 & & &3.9 A7 2108 0.24 3.0 6 11 1.6 "0:1 1.3365 "0:9 0.014 2213 0.58 410 13 1.1 8.4 & & &3.5 #m1 ; m2 $ ! #6:45 ' 104 ; 1:29 ' 106 $M% 2175 0.45 300 10 0.74 0.3 6.1 & & &2.9 2 A1 5 0.8 ( ) !"#$%&"#$'&$" 1 −3 2 x 10 *+,-. -/0&1,/23. 14 1 1 0 0.5 0 1000 SNR 2000 0.5 0 −6 −4 −2 log10 ∆ΩN / srad 0 −5 0 5 log10 ∆ΩL / srad 2 1 0 −3 −2 −1 0 1 log10 ∆ DL / DL 2 2 1 1 0 −2 −1 0 log10 ∆β 0 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0 log10 ∆σ 1.5 2 2 1 1 1 0.5 0 −0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 log10 ∆ tc / sec Friday, 23 May 2014 0 −5 −4 −3 log10 ∆ cm / cm 0 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 log10 ∆ µ / µ 0.5 ( ) !"#$%&$'&$" 1 −3 4 x 10 2 0 0.5 0 500 SNR 1000 *+,-. -/0&1,/23. 15 1 0.5 0 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1 log10 ∆ΩN / srad 0 −5 1.5 3 3 1 2 2 0.5 1 1 0 −2 0 log10 ∆ DL / DL 2 0 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0 log10 ∆β 0.5 0 5 log10 ∆ΩL / srad 0 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0 log10 ∆σ 0.5 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 2 log10 ∆ tc / sec Friday, 23 May 2014 0 −4.5 −4 −3.5 −3 −2.5 log10 ∆ cm / cm 0 −3 −2 −1 log10 ∆ µ / µ 0 16 Addressing Weak Lensing Correct for weak lensing by mapping the sky in the direction of the source AND assume LISA will see many sources Friday, 23 May 2014 (green) square-line curve. We consider our setup to be Distance Measurement: Dominated by Lensing 17 0.06 0.05 !DL/DL 0.04 GW error Weak lensing error #1 Weak lensing error #2 Combined error #1 Combined error #2 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 z 2 2.5 3 Lensing correction: Simulation with a population Fig. 2.— Relative error in the luminosity due to 2011 Shapiro et al 2010 Petiteau,distance Babak, Sesana: weak lensing from (i) Shapiro et al. (2010) (circles) and from (ii) Friday, 23 May 2014 18 Mitigating Lensing: Safety in Numbers 6 If LISA detects ~ 30 events weak lensing might be mitigated Use the original Schutz idea of not depending on EM identification Friday, 23 May 2014 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 400 350 300 250 50 200 100 150 150 200 250 100 300 350 400 50 Petiteau, Babak, Sesana:in2011 Fig. 3.— Example of error box (cylinder) part of the Mille nium snapshot (cube with unit in Mpc). The blue cylinder is t measurement error box and the green one also considers the pri Posteriors on w: Two Different Realisations 0.08 0.02 0.06 0.015 0.01 0.08 0.008 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 -0.3 -0.15 0 0.15 0.3 0.006 0.01 0.04 0.004 0.02 0.005 0 0 z = [0:1] 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.002 0 z = [1:2] 0.02 0.015 z = [2:3] 0.01 0.008 0.006 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0 -0.3 -0.15 0 0.15 0.3 w 0 -0.3 -0.15 0 0.15 0.3 w 0.004 0.005 0 -0.3 -0.15 0 0.15 0.3 w 0.002 0 -0.3 -0.15 0 0.15 0.3 w Babak, Sesana: 2011 Fig. 5.— Posterior distribution forPetiteau, w for two particular realizaFriday, 23 May 2014 and bottom row). In each row, the left plot shows the tions (top 19 20 Cosmography with Ground-Based Detectors Friday, 23 May 2014 Advanced LIGO Distance Reach to Binary Coalescences q=1 q=2 q=4 q=8 horizon distance (Mpc) 10 1.37 3 10 0.20 inspiral only redshift z 4 21 q is mass ratio Buonanno and Sathyaprakash 2014 2 10 Friday, 23 May 2014 1 2 3 10 10 10 intrinsic total mass (solar mass) 0.02 Hubble Constant from Advanced Detectors 22 0.5 cos ι AIGO or LIGO-Virgo-LCGT network, weneutron expect 3/4 of Assuming short-hard-GRBs are binary stars 0.5 cos ι this rate. If SHB collimation can be assumed, the rate is further augmented by a factor of 1.12. At this rate, we find that one year of observation should be enough to measure H0 to an accuracy of ∼ 1% if SHBs are dominated by beamed NS-BH binaries using the “full” network of LIGO, Virgo, AIGO, and LCGT—admittedly, cos(ι) optimistic scenario. cos(ι) A general trend we cos(ι)see is our most a network of five detectors (as opposed to our baseline LIGO-Virgo network of three detectors) increases measurement accuracy in H0 by a factor of one and a half; assuming that the SHB progenitor is a NS-BH binary improves measurement accuracies by a factor of four or greater. Errors in H0 are seen to improve by a factor of at least two when we assume SHB collimation. Aside from exploring the cosmological consequences of these results, several other issues merit careful future analysis. Nissanke et alOne 2009 general result we found is the importance that prior distributions have on our final posterior PDF. Friday, 23 May 2014 0.5 cos ι 1 1 1 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0 0 + 100 200 DL (Mpc) + 100 200 DL (Mpc) 100 200 DL (Mpc) 300 300 + 300 tectors. This allows us to make Short gamma-ray bursts Hubble Constant from Advanced Detectors without EM counterparts ! 23 25 events: ! H0= 69 ± 3 km s!1 Mpc!1 (~4% at 95% confidence) ! 50 events: ! H0= 69 ± 2 km s!1 Mpc!1 (~3% at 95% confidence) ! WMAP7+BAO+SnIa (Komatsu et al.,2011): ! H0= 70.2 ± 1.4 km s!1 Mpc!1 (~2% at 68% confidence) !"#$"##% Del Pozzo, 2011 Friday, 23 May 2014 &'()*+%,%-%./0&1%2(3*+41%56)7%#89#:%;8##%% #<% ET Distance Reach to Coalescing Binaries Observed Mass Intrinsic Mass 200 17.00 100 9.40 50 5.20 20 2.40 10 1.40 Redsh ift z Lu m in osity distan ce !Gp c" 24 Sky!ave. dist . vs Obs. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0 5 0.79 Sky!ave. dist . vs Ph ys. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0 Sky!ave. dist . vs Obs. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0.75 2 1 0.37 Sky!ave. dist . vs Ph ys. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0.75 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 Total m ass !in M !" Friday, 23 May 2014 10 4 0.20 Sathyaprakash et al 2012 ET Distance Reach to Coalescing Binaries Observed Mass Intrinsic Mass 200 17.00 100 9.40 50 5.20 Non-spinning systems 20 2.40 10 1.40 Redsh ift z Lu m in osity distan ce !Gp c" 24 Sky!ave. dist . vs Obs. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0 5 0.79 Sky!ave. dist . vs Ph ys. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0 Sky!ave. dist . vs Obs. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0.75 2 1 0.37 Sky!ave. dist . vs Ph ys. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0.75 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 Total m ass !in M !" Friday, 23 May 2014 10 4 0.20 Sathyaprakash et al 2012 ET Distance Reach to Coalescing Binaries Observed Mass Intrinsic Mass 200 17.00 100 9.40 50 5.20 Non-spinning systems 20 10 2.40 Spinning systems 1.40 Redsh ift z Lu m in osity distan ce !Gp c" 24 Sky!ave. dist . vs Obs. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0 5 0.79 Sky!ave. dist . vs Ph ys. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0 Sky!ave. dist . vs Obs. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0.75 2 1 0.37 Sky!ave. dist . vs Ph ys. M, Ν#0.25, Χ#0.75 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 Total m ass !in M !" Friday, 23 May 2014 10 4 0.20 Sathyaprakash et al 2012 10 ETB, z=1 3 25 10 20 Visibility 30 of Binary in 50 70 M2 êMü Inspirals 102 Einstein 60 80 10 Telescope 40 20 1 1 10 102 M1 êMü Friday, 23 May 2014 103 ET: Measuring Dark Energy and Dark Matter 26 ET will observe 100’s of binary neutron stars and GRB associations each year GRBs could give the host location and red-shift, GW observation provides DL Class. Quantum Grav. 27 (2010) 215006 B S Sathyaprakash al Sathyaprakash et al et2010 0.4 0.6 w 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 M Friday, 23 May 2014 0.3 0.4 -state (EOS) of the dark energy component w dominates the evolu 27 Measuring and its variation with ould be determined by the w observations. In this paper, wezshall ado ft z: Baskaran, Van Den Broeck, Zhao, Li, 2011 w(z) ≡ pde /ρde = w0 + wa z/(1 + z). opted by many authors, including the DETF (dark energy task forc ve w = w0 . However in the early Universe with z $ 1, the EOS b nds to the present EOS, and wa describes the evolution of w(z). rk energy is determined by the equation ρ̇de + 3H(ρde + pde ) = 0, dark energy in (3), we obtain that ρde = ρde0 × E(z), e of ρde at z = 0, and E(z) ≡ (1 + z)3(1+w0 +wa ) e−3wa z/(1+z) . Friday, 23 May 2014 28 GW cosmography without EM counterparts Measure redshift from gravitational wave observations alone Use a population of sources to statistically infer cosmological parameters Friday, 23 May 2014 [23] L. Rezzolla, B. Giacomazzo, L. Baiotti, J. Granot, C. Kouve[37] incliR. A. Fisher he sky position coordinates ιso-called and ψL6+are the orbital [12] F. M Acernese etA.al., Classical andand Quantum Gravity, 25, 184001 29 mass + z)M and the luminosity distance liotou, and M.(1 Aloy, Astrophys. J. Lett., 732, (2011), Messenger-Read Method: z = [38] M. Vallisne (2008). arXiv:1101.4298 [astro-ph.HE]. ationd[13] and GW polarization angles respectively. The standard =Cutler (1 z)r.É.and This implies that itD,is49,not possible disentanqc/0703086 M.+Harry the the LIGO Scientific Classical Make post-Newtonian Tidalto Term [24]LC. G. and use E. of Flanagan, Phys. Rev.Collaboration, 2658 (1994), [39]can S. Hild ost-Newtonian phase be et and Quantum Gravity, 27, 084006 (2010). glearXiv:gr-qc/9402014. the masspoint-particle parameters andfrequency the redshiftdomain from the waveform (2011), arX [14] A.G. D. A. M. Spallicci, J. de Freitas [25] K. Arun, B. R. Iyer, B.S.S.Aoudia, Sathyaprakash, and Pacheco, P. A. alone if the proper distance is unknown. written as [25, 27] [40] A. Akmal, T. Regimbau,Phys. and Rev. G. Frossati, and Quantum GravSundararajan, D, 71, Classical 084008 (2005), arXiv:grRev. C, 58, The leading-order effects of the quadrupole tidal response ity, 22, 461 (2005), arXiv:gr-qc/0406076. qc/0411146. [41] have F. Douchin Ndynamics [15] Abadie et star al.,and Classical and Quantum Phys. Gravity, 173001 [26] S.aJ. V.neutron Dhurandhar B. S.post-Newtonian Sathyaprakash, Rev.27, D,� 49, of on binary π 3 k/2 151 (2001), (2010), arXiv:1003.2480 [astro-ph.HE]. 1707 (1994). + α x (2) an Ψ ( f ) = 2π f t − φ − been determined [17, using Newtonian and 1PN c“Einstein k approxi[42] H. Müller 5/2 [27] K.PP G. Arun, B. R. Iyer, B. 28] S. cSathyaprakash, and P. A. Sun[16] M. Abernathy et al., gravitational wave telescope con4 128ηx arXiv:nucl-t k=0 dararajan, Phys. D, field. 72, 069903(E) (2005). (2011). ceptualtodesign study,” http://www.et-gw.eu/ mations the Rev. tidal The additional phase contribution to 5/2 [43] http://ht [28] J. Vines, E. E. B. Flanagan, andR. T. N. Hinderer, Phys. Rev. D, 83, [17] T. Hinderer, D. Lackey, Lang, and J. S. Read, Phys. a tidal from a BNS system is given by a GW signal [44] K. Hotokeza 084051 (2011). Rev. D, 81,the 123016 (2010), arXiv:0911.3535 [astro-ph.HE]. where we use post-Newtonian dimensionless parameter 5 uchi, Phys. R [29] T. F. Hinderer, Astrophys. J., 677, 1216 (2008), arXiv:0711.2420. � � � [18] Pannarale, L. Rezzolla, F. Ohme, and J. S. Read, ArXiv ea a 5/2 2/3 � a=1,2 3λ 24 11η x ph.HE]. [30] A. W. Steiner, J. M. Lattimer, and E. F. Brown, Astrophys. J., a = (πM f ) and the corresponding α given prints (2011), arXiv:1103.3526 [astro-ph.HE]. coefficients tidal k N Ψ722, (E.f(2010), )Flanagan = arXiv:1005.0811 − [astro-ph.HE]. 1Phys. + Rev. D, 77, [45] C.(3) K. Mishr [19] E. 33 and T. Hinderer, 021502 5 k/2 128η χ χ M a Phys. aD, N n [25]. Throughout this work we use = 7 corresponding [31] F. (2008). Özel, G. Baym, and T. Güver, Rev. 82, 101301 2 Phys. Rev. D a=1,2 PP c c k 5/2 a � a time (2010), arXiv:1002.3153 [astro-ph.HE]. o a[32] 3.5T. PN phase expansion (the highest known at the 7/2 � � k=0 a D, 80, 084035 (2009), Damour and A. 5Nagar, Phys. Rev. 2 3 x −The 3179 − 919χ − 2286χ 260χ aand a +the a f publication). parameters t φ are time of5 coarXiv:0906.0096 [gr-qc]. c c 28χ M a [33] K. D. Kokkotas and G. Schafer, Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc., 275, lescence and phase at coalescence and we use f to represent 301 (1995), arXiv:gr-qc/9502034. 2/3 the contributions from each NS5 (indexed where we sum over Baiotti, T. Damour, Giacomazzo, and 2 he [34] GWL. frequency in theB. rest frame A.ofNagar, the source. that k nsNote 5 Rezzolla, Review λ Letters, 261101 byL.a). ThePhysical parameter = 105, (2/3)R k2(2010), characterizes the ns the signal is modeled using the point-particle phase such arXiv:1009.0521 [gr-qc]. the iven e acepa-tion ntial S molTd to racy non. -alid ncy, t ”] in alone if the proper distance is unknown. leading-order effects the quadrupole tidal phase.The The quantity Q(ϕ) is a of factor that is determin a neutron star onofpost-Newtonian the of amplitude response the GW detectorbinary and isdynam a fun been determined [17, 28]ϕusing andθ 1PN of the nuisance parameters = (θ,Newtonian φ, ι, ψ) where and to thecoordinates tidal field. The contr the mations sky position and ιadditional and ψ arephase the orbital a GW from a BNSangles systemrespectively. is given by The sta nation andsignal GW polarization � frequency � � post-Newtonian � point-particle domain phase c 3λ 24 11η x written as [25, 27] Ψ (f) = − 1+ 128η χ χ M � π 3 � 5 + α+ x260χ Ψ ( f ) =−2π f t −3179 φ − − 919χ − 2286χ 4 128ηx 28χ where the contributions from eachpara NS where we we usesum the over post-Newtonian dimensionless a). f )Theand parameter λ = (2/3)R k characte x =by(πM the corresponding coefficients α strength of the induced quadrupole an exte in [25]. Throughout this work we use N given = 7 correspo strength of the induced quadrupole given an external tidal Friday, 23 May 2014 30 Measurement accuracy of source redshift 1 APR ∆z/z SLY 10−1 MS1 10−2 0.01 Messenger and Read, PRL, 2011 Friday, 23 May 2014 0.1 redshift z 1 Host redshifts from gravitational wave observations 31 Host-galaxy redshifts from gravitational-wave observations of binary neutron star mergers C. Messenger,1 Kentaro Takami,2, 3 Sarah Gossan,4 Luciano Rezzolla,3, 2 and B. S. Sathyaprakash5 1 2 School of Physics and Astronomy,University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK Max-Planck-Institut für Gravitationsphysik, Albert Einstein Institut, Am Mühlenberg 1, 14476 Potsdam, Germany 3 Institut für Theoretische Physik, Max-von-Laue-Str. 1, 60438 Frankfurt, Germany 4 TAPIR, California Institute of Technology, 1200 E California Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91125, USA 5 School of Physics and Astronomy, Cardiff University, 5, The Parade, Cardiff, UK, CF24 3AA (Dated: Mon May 19 17:07:55 2014 +0200) (commitID: 549ca0bc25679c083192dd8efb3b276f709733ed) (LIGO-P1300211-v1) Inspiralling compact binaries as standard sirens will become an invaluable tool for cosmology when we enter the gravitational-wave detection era. However, a degeneracy in the information carried by gravitational waves between the total rest-frame mass M and the redshift z of the source implies that neither can be directly extracted from the signal, but only the combination M (1 + z), the redshifted mass. Recent work has shown that for 3rd generation detectors, a tidal correction to the gravitational-wave phase in the late-inspiral signal of binary neutron star systems could be used to break the mass-redshift degeneracy. We propose here to use the signature encoded in the post-merger signal allowing the accurate extraction of the intrinsic rest-frame mass of the source, in turn permitting the determination of source redshift and luminosity distance. The entirety of this analysis method and any subsequent cosmological inference derived from it would be obtained solely from gravitational-wave observations and hence be independent of the cosmological distance ladder. Using numerical simulations of binary neutron star mergers of different mass, we model gravitational- wave signals at different redshifts and use Bayesian parameter estimation to determine the accuracy with which the redshift and mass can be extracted. We find that the Einstein Telescope can determine the source redshift to ∼ 10–20% at redshifts of z < 0.04. I. INTRODUCTION to appear in PRX 2014 Friday, 23 May 2014 a network of detectors can determine the sky position, G polarisation angle, orbital inclination and the distance to t binary. The observed total mass, however, is not the system Binary Neutron Star GW Spectrum - post Merger M = 2.68268 M! F2 F1 normalised power P M = 2.75674 M! M = 2.83252 M! M = 2.91008 M! M = 2.97806 M! 1.0 1.5 2.0 f (kHz) Friday, 23 May 2014 2.5 3.0 3.5 32 Measurement Accuracies of Char. Frequencies 3.0 f (kHz) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 f2 f1 2.70 2.80 M (M!) Friday, 23 May 2014 2.90 3.00 33 How well can we measure z? Friday, 23 May 2014 34 35 Hubble without the Hubble: Cosmology using advanced gravitational-wave detectors alone Stephen R. Taylor∗ Institute of Astronomy, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0HA, UK Jonathan R. Gair† Institute of Astronomy, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0HA, UK Ilya Mandel‡ NSF Astronomy and Astrophysics Postdoctoral Fellow, MIT Kavli Institute, Cambridge, MA 02139; and School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT (Dated: January 31, 2012) We investigate a novel approach to measuring the Hubble constant using gravitational-wave (GW) signals from compact binaries by exploiting the narrowness of the distribution of masses of the underlying neutron-star population. Gravitational-wave observations with a network of detectors will permit a direct, independent measurement of the distance to the source systems. If the redshift of the source is known, these inspiraling double-neutron-star binary systems can be used as standard Cosmology the lights off: Standard sirens the Einstein Telescope era sirens to extractwith cosmological information. Unfortunately, theinredshift and the system chirp mass are degenerate in GW observations. Thus, most previous work has assumed that the source redshift Stephen R. Taylor∗ and Jonathan R. Gair† a novel method of using is obtained from electromagnetic counterparts. However, we investigate Institute of Astronomy, Madingley Road, Cambridge, 0HA, UK these systems as standard sirens with GW observations alone. In CB3 this paper, we explore what we (Dated: July 6, 2012) can learn about the background cosmology and the mass distribution of neutron stars from the set of neutron-star (NS) mergers detected by such a using network. We use a Bayesian formalism to We explore the prospects for constraining cosmology gravitational-wave (GW) observations neutron binaries inspiral by the proposed Einstein narrowness the of the analyze catalogs of NS-NS detections. WeTelescope find that(ET), it isexploiting possible the to constrain Hubble Friday, 23ofMay 2014 star binary system mass could conceivably the 36 udies due to the divergence at high redshift. mple ansatz for the relationship between lying Cosmology neutron star without mass distribution. The chirp mass EM Counterparts The ET horizon distance for a system lying oo-Sahni-Starobinsky ansatz [69] models the distribution parameters and the underdistribution is modeled as normal, star distribution. The chirp mass w = −1 distr tion mass as a “tanh” form that ensures Th 2 Distribution of Chirp Mass M ∼ N (µ , σ ), c modeled c ansatz premes andaswnormal, → 0 at low z. This are t 2 rossing ofNthe divide” at w = −1, withM mean and deviation ∼ (µc ,“phantom σstandard c ), dista nce phantom fluids can not be √ explained by a ars in the binary system would need to have 3/5 3/5 grea standard (13) µc ≈deviation 2(0.25) µNS , σc ≈ 2(0.25) σNS , with the distribution mean at the coupled scalar field [68]. Themaximum ansatz weconsidadopt √ write 3/5 3/5 σNS∈, [0, 0.3]M (13) # . 2(0.25) , CPL c ≈ here µNS ∈σ[1.0, 1.5]M , σNS # k) is µthe ansatz [68, 70] NS unit Θ [2 w(a) = w0 + wa (1 − a), " ! z . (22) w(z) = w0 + wa 1+z The z was adopted by the Dark Energy Task Force Taylor, Gair 2012 merg as several desirable features. It depends on Friday, 23 May 2014 Measuring dark energy EoS and its variation with redshift 1 0.5 wa 0 7 −0.5 −1 −1.5 −1.4 −1.2 −1 w 0 Friday, 23 May 2014 −0.8 −0.6 Taylor, Gair 2012 37 Conclusions LISA observations alone could measure cosmological parameters, but ... A lot depends on the true event rate Also, will it really be possible to correct for weak lensing Measurement errors achieved in the end are not really comparable to what can be done by other means Ground-based detectors are in a good shape for cosmography A population of sources helps mitigate weak lensing Statistical approaches work pretty well Friday, 23 May 2014 38 Determining the Large Scale Structure Friday, 23 May 2014 39