Appl .Mat h.J.Chi ne s eUni v.Se r .B 2005,20(4):416422 RATEOFCONVERGENCEFOR MULTI PLECHANGEPOI NTSESTI MATI ON OFMOVI NGAVERAGEPROCESSES LiYunxi a Zha ngLi xi n .I ,t Abs t r ac t nt hi spa pe r hel e a s ts qua r ee s t i ma t ori nt hepr obl e m ofmul t i pl ec ha ngepoi nt s e s t i ma t i on i ss t udi e d.He r e,t hemovi nga ve r a gepr oc e s s e sofALNQD s e que nc ei nt heme a n s hi f t sa r edi s c us s e d.Whe nt henumbe rofc ha ngepoi nt si sknown,t her a t eofc onve r ge nc eof c ha ngepoi nt se s t i ma t i oni sde r i ve d.Ther e s ul ti sa l s ot r uef orρmi xi ng,φ mi xi ng,α mi xi ng, a s s oc i a t e da ndne ga t i ve l ya s s oc i a t e ds e que nc e sunde rs ui t a bl ec ondi t i ons. *+ I ,t r -./c t 0 -, .1i Thec hangepoi ntpr obl e mi sve r yi mpor t anti nmanyappl i c at i ons t he rt hes t at i s t i c s on t he e c onome t r i c sl i t e r at ur ec ont ai ns a vas tamountofwor k on i s s ue sr e l at e dt o s t r uc t ur alc hange,andt hec hangepoi nt sofar andom pr oc e s shavebe e nwe l lde t e c t e dand .2nc l oc at e df ormor et hanf or t yye ar s et hec hangepoi nt sar epr ope r l yl oc at e d,t heor i gi nal mode ls houl dbemodi f i e dac c or di ngl yt opr ovi debe t t e ri nt e r pr e t at i onofdat aandmor e .The ac c ur at ef or e c as t s r e f or ec hangepoi nt se s t i mat i on pl ays a ve r y ac t i ve r ol ei n e c onome t r i cmode l l i ng. Mos tofe ar l ye f f or t shavebe e nde vot e dt ot hede t e c t i onofauni quec hangepoi ntby .Ther .Among many di f f e r e ntme t hods andom pr oc e s s e sdi s c us s e d we r e al s o di f f e r e nt t he s e,t hemovi ngave r agepr oc e s swhi c h hasbe e n wi de l ys t udi e d by many aut hor si s 415 .3ai s t i mat ori na pr opos e dt hel e as t s quar e(LS)e s pe c i al l yus e f uli nt hee c onome t r i c s .I movi ngave r agepr oc e s s nt hatpape rt hec ons i s t e nc yandt her at eofc onve r ge nc eoft he .i .dvar e s t i mat orf ori i abl e sormar t i ngal edi f f e r e nc e sar eobt ai ne d. Re c e nt l y,t hel i t e r at ur eaddr e s s i ngt hei s s ueofmul t i pl es t r uc t ur alc hange si sr e l at i ve l y s par s e.I nt hi sc ont r i but i onwedi s c us sal e as t s quar ee s t i mat or(LS)ofmul t i pl ec hange415 poi nt se s t i mat i on pr opos e dby3ai .Wehaves t udi e dt hec ons i s t e nc yoft hee s t i mat or be f or e.He r e,t her at eofc onve r ge nc eoft hec hangepoi nt se s t i mat i on i sde r i ve d,whi c h 415 e xt e ndst her e s ul t sof3ai . 1128. Re c e i ve d:200305. MR Subj e c tCl a s s i f i c a t i on:60F05,62F10,62F12,62J :me ,mul ,movi ,ALNQD,l Ke ywor ds a ns hi f t t i pl ec ha ngepoi nt s nga ve r a gepr oc e s s e a s ts qua r e. Suppor t e dbyt heNa t i ona lNa t ur a lSc i e nc eFounda t i onofChi na(10471126). . ;<V=nO< m,> tm? @ATABF[BN]A@CAN[AFB@ DELTI FLA[GANCAFBI NTSASTI DATI BN...: 19 ,wec Fi r s t ons i de raki ndofde pe nde nc ede f i ne di n[12],whi c hc anber e gar de das )andi as ympt ot i c al l yl i ne arne gat i vequadr antde pe nde nc e(ALNQD,f ors hor t swe ake r * t hane i t he rLNQD orρ mi xi ng.I nt hel as ts e c t i on,wewi l lpoi ntoutt hatal lourr e s ul t s ar eal s ot r uef orρmi xi ng,φ mi xi ng,αmi xi ng,as s oc i at e d,ne gat i ve l yas s oc i at e ds e que nc e s . unde rs omes ui t abl ec ondi t i ons P Le tMbeac l as soff unc t i onsoft hef or m N(O1,O2,...,OP)QR SR(PT 1)whi c har e c oor di nat e wi s emonot oni c al l ynonde c r e as i ng.Fort wor andom var i abl e sU andV,de f i ne [ov(N(U),\(V)) ρW (U,V)X YZ s up , (]ar N(U))1^2(]ar \(V))1^2 2 2 whe r et hes upi st ake nove ral lN,\_ Ms uc ht hat‘[N(U)]ab and‘[\(V)]ab.For anydi s c oi nts ubs e t sd,efg,de f i ne ρW (d,e)X s uphρW (U,V)QU _ i(d),V_ i(e)j, ml T Yandmlp Yf j,andi(e)i whe r ei(d)X hk l_ dmln orf i ni t e l ymanylq r sde f i ne d lo s i mi l ar l y. st u v wv x v ywz.z.A s e que nc ehn l_{ji ss ai dt obeas ympt ot i c al l yl i ne arne gat i vequadr ant lo W W )Xs (d,e)T| ,d,ef{ar uphρ (d,e)odi s t ef i ni t ejS Yas| de pe nde nt(ALNQD)i fρ (| Sb. }~ Thtmydt lawdx htmav wr t s ul x hemode ldi s c us s e di nt hi s Wec ons i de ras e que nc eofr andom var i abl e sV1,...,Vn,t : pape ri sasf ol l ows * * VtX µ* ,t ≤t 1≤ l≤ | . l + Ut lW 1 + 1≤ t l, (2.1) Uti sas t at i onar ymovi ngave r agepr oc e s sgi ve nby b UtX k mn , (2.2) Pt WP P XY b ot _ {ji whe r ehmP,PT Yji sas e que nc eofr e alnumbe r swi t hk PX 1|mP|a b andhn sa t 2 ,Ya ‘n s e que nc eofs t at i onar yALNQD r andom var i abl e swi t h‘n Thi smode l tX Y ta b. * 1≤l≤ me anst hat|c hange saf f e c tt hedi s t r i but i onof(Vt)ats omeunknowni ns t ant s(t l, * * * * * , ,t )wi .So,Wewi | t t ht nτ l le s t i mat et heunknownbr e akpoi nt s5 X YXY | + 1X n lX[ l] * * (τ ...,τ r om n obs e r vat i ons V1,...,Vn.The me an val ue s ar e as s ume d wi t h 1, | ) f * * mi nl|µl+ 1Wµl |6Yandt henumbe rofbr e aks|i st r e at e dasknown. Theme t hodofe s t i mat i onc ons i de r e di sbas e dont hel e as t s quar ec r i t e r i on.Le t7n,|X h(t ...,t ,t at ..at jbet .I t hes e tofal l owabl e| par t i t i ons n Y, 1, | + 1) YX Y 1at 2a. |at | + 1Xn ,t t hes e que l hef ol l owi ngs e tofal l owabl e| par t i t i onsi sal s oc ons i de r e d: 8n n,| 7 X h(t t ...,t :t 8nj, Y, 1, | + 1) lW t lW 1 T n whe r e8ni sas e que nc eofnoni nc r e as i ngnonne gat i venumbe r ss uc ht hat8nSYasnSb at s omepr e s c r i be dr at e. G9mL G0 7pp8 :G;G1:W +< = <>+W ?G5< - xE6 GOo,soGx @o/ ∈ *+,-,. 1 Fore ac ht he/ e a0 . 0 23ar e4567e 0 . 8 9a. or 0o:. he9e a;0ar e: 8 r 0 .o<. a8 ;e =<> ,0 98 ;8 98 ? 8 ;@. he0 39 o:0 23ar er e 0 8 =3a/ 0 3<0 . 8 . 3. 8 ;@. he 98 ;. heo<A e c . 8 Be: 3;c . 8 o;a;= 7, =e ;o. 8 ;@. her e 0 3/ . 8 ;@0 39 a0C+4t L K HE C+4t 7D E 98 ; JH E4NLM FK7O + 4FE,GGG,F-H E7∈ I-H EJ KD EL DL KM E HE L K E P 4OGQ7 JH E4NLM N4LKM E,LK77O, +J DL KD EL KM E V ,X ,X74XY W7 . 7D Rhe r e,: ora;> 0 e 23e ;c e SFLTL∈ U,Re =e ;o. eV F4W he aBe r a@eF4W D X 4XM W 7M EJ LD WH EFLGFora;>1 ,t [ ∈ *+,-,Re=e Mt [ \ ] D 9a^‘L [ G Zar . 8 . 8 o;0t : 8 ;e\t KML K‘ E_ K_ - aher a. eo:c o;Be r @e ;c eo:. hec ha;@e1 Zo8 ;. 0e 0 . 8 9a. 8 o;8 0o<. a8 ;e =8 ;. he: o/ / oR8 ;@G ∈ UH T8 bcd ef d g hGiGj8 Be ;. hec ha;@e1 Zo8 ;. 09o=e /4OGE7,SkLlL 0a0 . a. 8 o;ar >/ 8 ;e ar ] noT8 Zr oc e 0 0o:. he: or 9 4OGO7,Rhe r eSmXlX 0a0 e 23e ;c eo:r e a/;39<e r 0R8 . hJ XD o‘mX‘ p ] a;=Sq lL∈ UT8 Do,op 0a0 e 23e ;c eo:0 . a. 8 o;ar >r5stur a;=o9 Bar 8 a</ e 0R8 . hvq L L O vq r0 0 39e. ha. Lp]G 0 3Z v‘q ‘OH w p ] L H : or0 o9ewY oG 4OGx7 L ∈U 5e .Sy+T+n o <eaZo0 8 . 8 Be;o;1 8 ;c r e a0 8 ;@0 e 23e ;c e0 3c h. ha./ 8 9y+D oa;=/ 8 9+y+D ],/ e . +z ] +z ] { y+ y+ 7oBe , t e. heBa/ 3eo:t. ha.98 ;8 98 ? e 0C+4t r*+,-,. ha.8 0 + < { y+ t r @98 ;C+4t 7, + D a y+ t ∈ *+,- 7T8 ,Rh8 7Gahe _ Rhe r ear @98 ;S|4} 0. heZo8 ;. c h98 ;8 98 ? e 0. he: 3;c . 8 o;|4} ;: ora/ /E_X E {M~ * ,~ X X DOp * * ‘F* D9a^E_ K_ -‘F* G ;=λ KH EMF K ‘a KH EMF K‘ (+λ),RhereλD98; E_ K_ - O () *f ee+ G aoZr oBeahe or e 9 OGE,Re;e e =: o/ / oR8 ;@5e 99a0 .EE/ lL ∈UT<ea0 ,d gg-)GiG 5e .Sq e 23e ;c eo:0 . a. 8 o;ar >r5stu r a;=o9 Bar 8 a</ e 0R8 . h L O OH w ,op vq p] : ,. vq r0 0 39e. ha.0 3Z v‘q or0 o9ewY oho/ =0 he ;. he r ee ^8 0 . LD o Lp ]G L‘ H L ∈U YOa;=c o;0 . a;. 00-a;=1-;o.=e Ze ;=8 ;@o;+0 3c h. ha.: or+nE, - - O 9a OG v49a^‘q GGH q ^v‘q 2H E HG KH 2‘7_ 0-+ K‘ _ 1 -+ 4QGE7 O v49a^‘q GGH q ,4+n EG 2H E HG KH 2‘7_ 1 -+ 4QGO7 E_ K_ + E_ K_ + , 3 ;Zar . 8 c 3/ ar E_ K_ + .EQ/ lL ∈UT<ea0 ,d gg-)Gh G5e .Sq e 23e ;c eo:0 . a. 8 o;ar >r5stu r a;=o9 Bar 8 a</ e 0R8 . h L O Do,opvq vq 5e .kLD L Lp]G J ] mq ,5+ D MX X Do X L J ] + kL,Rhe noT8 r eSmXlX 0a0 e 23e ;c eo: L DE r e a/;39<e r 0R8 . hJ XD o‘mX‘p ]Gr0 0 39e. ha.. hea0 0 39Z. 8 o;4OGx78 ;ahe or e 9 OGE8 0 0 a. 8 0 : 8 e =,. he ;. he r ee ^8 0 . 0ac o;0 . a;.10 3c h. ha. RATEOyCONVERGENCEyOR MULTI PLECHANGEPOI NTSESTI MATI ON...4 19 . LiYunxi a,e tal E max|Sk|2 ≤ Cn. (3.3) 1≤ k≤ n [13] Le mma3.3 .Xti sde f i ne dasi nLe mma3.2.Suppos et hatt heas s umpt i oni nLe mma3. 2i ss at i s f i e d,t he nt he r ee xi s t sac ons t antA s uc ht hatf orm>0andanyα>0wehave 1 1 P(s up |Sk|≥ α)≤ A 2 . k≥ m k αm (3.4) * * * Pr oofofThe or e m 2.1.De not eΔτ = mi n |τ ndl e t0<γ<1/2.De f i ne j -τ j - 1|a 1≤ j ≤r +1 -1 * ,kp ≤ qm- m q r ≤ nγΔ* , (3.t) τs wn s ot hepr oofc ons i s t si nde t e r mi ni nuanuppe rvoundf orP(m x jk,γ,n).yorthatpurpose, j k,γ,n = lmn o n,r f i r s tde c ompos ej s k,γ,n a j p ,γ,n =z j mn k,γ,n { l τ * ,t |kn k≥ t k, o n,t }s, (3.~) whe r et heuni oni sove ral ls uvs e t s} oft hei nde xs e tl1,...,rs.Wemayc omput ean * n on,r,t |kn }s.Ofc our s e,t hi s uppe rvoundf ore ac hi ndi vi duals e tj m k,γ,n{ l k≥ t k, ,f uppe rvounddoe snotde pe ndon},andwec ons i de r ornot at i onals i mpl i c i t y,onl yt he * s.De ' n on,r,t |knl1,...,r ss.So c as ewhe r e}=l1,...,r not ej m k,γ,n= j k,γ,n{l k≥t k, wn ' )n t hepr oofc ons i s t si nde t e r mi ni nuanuppe rvoundf orP(m n jk,γ,n ow. ,wede ' ' ' yi r s t c ompos et hes e tj sj k,γ,n a k,γ,n=z }j k,γ,n( }),wheretheunionisover s,and al lt hes uvs e t sτofl1,...,r -2 * k * j' (})=lmn o ,kp ≤ t- t ≤ nγΔ}, |kn },0≤ t- t ≤ kp ,|k∉ }s. k,γ,n n,r k * k k -2 * * * * * nj ' yoranym e not enk,k=t nk,k+ 1=t nk=t ndnk =t he k,γ,n,d k -t k- 1, k-t k, k-t k- 1 a k -t k- 1,t * * .Not de pe nde nc eoft he s equant i t i e sonmandm i si mpl i c i t et hatnk=nk,k+nk,k+ 1andnk =nk,k +nk- 1,k,andnk,k/nk≥(1-γ)Δ* τ. ' : nj De f i nef oral lm hef ol l owi nuquant i t i e s k,γ,n t * Jn(m )= Qn(m )- Qn(m ), r Kn(m )= nk,knk,k+ 1 2 1 p k, nΣ nk k= 1 Vn(m )= nk,k Sk,k Sk,k+ 1 1 nk,k+ 1 nΣ nk nk,k nk,k+ 1 k= 1 W n(m )= Sk,k nk,k 2 p + Sk,k+ 1 k n k,k+ 1 nΣ nk nk k= 1 r ( ( ) ), r ( whe r e,f or1≤ i≤ j≤ r+ 1,Si,j= 2 Σ t j - nk+ 1,k+ 1 Sk+ 1,k+ 1 Sk,k+ 1 nk+ 1,k+ 1 nk,k+ 1 n* k+ 1 ( 2 )), (3.7) * * Xtandp , Us i nut he s enot at i ons k=µ k+ 1-µ k. t =t i - 1+ 1 nj ' )mayvede )= Kn(m )+ Vn(m )+ Wn(m ). c ompos e dasJn(m f oral lm Jn(m k,γ,n, ' nj Wehavef oral lm k,γ,n, mi n Kn(m )≥ (1- γ)Δ* τk (3.8) m n j' k,γ,n and r Vn(t )≥- S2 S2 |Sk+ 1,k+ 1| |Sk,k| 1 k+ 1,k+ 1 k,k+ 1 nk,k+ 1 2 + + 2|Sk,k+ 1| + .(3.9) Σ nk= 1 nk nk+ 1,k+ 1 nk,k nk+ 1,k+ 1 ( ( )) .MaM .B Appl h.d.Chh ne g eUnh v.Ue P pV0 .V0,oo.p Vol ),Vn(t ),Wn(t )andt ,t The nby(3.7)-(3.9),t hee xpr e s s i onsofKn(t he i rbounds he r e e xi s t sC>0s mal le noughs o ^ P(t I n (Kn(t )N Vn(t )N W n(t ))L 0)L n∈ H J,K,n)LP( mi M ∈ HI J,K,n P UV QN S,QN S V W C(SX K)YZ [\ N V )n QN S,QN S O P] HmaxT QR S t ∈ I J,K,n( OTP] HmaxT t ∈ Q∈ ] O P] O P] O P] OP ^ U W C(SX K)nY \ N n ^ U W C(SX K)Y J N n ^ ‘U ‘ ‘U ‘ ‘U ‘ n ] n N n ^W C(SX K)Y \^N ‘U ‘ ‘U ‘ ‘U ‘ N W C(SX K)Y J N n n ^ ] ^ ‘U ‘ ‘U ‘ W C\ N O P max W C\ N n n ^ ] ^ I J,K,n( ) t ∈ HI T) J,K,n( Q_ T t ∈ HI T) J,K,n( Q_ T t ∈ HI T) J,K,n( max max P Z [ Q Q,QN S QN S,QN S Q,Q Q,QN S QN S,QN S Q,Q QN S,QN S Q,Q QN S,QN S Q,Q Z [ I J,K,n( ) V Z [ Q,QN S Q,QN S Q,Q O P] HmaxT ‘U t ∈ V Q,Q max t ∈ HI T) J,K,n( Q_ T Z [ Q,QN S V Q,QN S max Q_ T QR S V Q,QN S Q∈ T t ∈ HI T) J,K,n( Q,QN S a XS ‘W C(SX K)YZ \ [J ^. Q,QN S )on H I ,byfe Thusbec anobt ai nt heboundsf ordn(t i r s t mmas3.V,3.3andi t s J,K,n.e ,f c or ol l ar y,t he r ee xi s tf i ni t ec ons t ant sCS,CV s uc ht hat oral lSLQLPandf oral lC>0, g j l CS ‘UQ,Q‘ ‘O hR Sih‘ L V , WCLP W C s u p t ∈ HI Q,Q J,K,n n kgW n(SX K)YZ[ g m Cn ] ^ P max g UV Q,QN S WCLP s u p ih W O t ∈ HI Q,QN S g Ln J,K,n n h RS ] ^ ] P max nn(SX K)CY )^L Z [ CV . C (3.S0) (3.SS) ,t ,\ ,noront oe xt he r ee xi s tf i ni t ec ons t ant sC3,Cp(t hatdonotde pe ndon\ hes ubs e tT) s uc ht hatf oral lnWS, V V j l C3\ ‘UQ,QN S‘ ‘O hR Sih‘ P max max WCLP s L V, u p W C Q∈ T t ∈ HI Q,QN S T) n J,K,n( kgW J\X V g m JC ] ^ g P]max max ‘UQ,QN S‘W C^L P]max max XV Q∈ T t ∈ HI T) J,K,n( Q_ T 0L g L J\ Oi h h RS W C^L (3.SV) CpJ 3.S3) V. ( CV\ The nby(3.S0)-(3.S3)behaqef oranyJ>0, P(t n∈ HI V S rN VN J n\ ] )L KK J,K,n \ \ V ] ] ^^^, V .Thust bhe r eKKst i sac ons t ant hec onc l us i oni sobt ai ne dbhe nn\ut andJut. vw xy z{ |}{ ~{ n}{ nc {as s um~y i ons ;M∈ ZN }i , Suppos e {ε sas t at i onar ys e que nc eofr andom qar i abl e sbi t h Eε M MR 0 V 0sEε ,t er om t hepr oofbef i ndt hat(3.3)hol dsbhe ne qe r(3.V)i st r ue.Thus he Mst. RATEOFCONVERGENCEFOR MULTI PLECHANGEPOI NTSESTI MATI ON...4 21 . LiYunxi a,e tal c onc l us i onofThe or e m 2.1i sal s ot r ueunde rt hec ondi t i on(3.2).So,t hec onc l us i onof The or e m 2.1i st r ue,i foneoft hef ol l owi ngc ondi t i onsi ss at i s f i e d: (i ){ε ;t ∈Z+ }i samar t i ngal es e que nc e. t (i ){ε ;t∈ Z+ }i i sas e que nc eofρmi xi ng (orφ mi xi ng)r andom var i abl e swi t h t Σ ∞ ∞ 1/2 ρ(2i)< ∞(orΣ i= 1φ (2i)< ∞). i =1 (i ){ε ;t ∈Z+ }i |2+ δ<∞ andα(n) i i sas e que nc eofαmi xi ngr andom var i abl e swi t hE|ε t t 2+δ . δ (i ;t ∈Z+ }i . v){ε sas e que nc eofne gat i ve l yas s oc i at e dr andom var i abl e s t =O(n- θ)f > ors omeδ>0andθ ;t ∈Z+ }i . (v){ε sas e que nc eofas s oc i at e dr andom var i abl e s t .I )-(v)r ) Pr oof tne e dst ove r i f yt hec ondi t i on(3.2)f ort hes e que nc ei n(i e s pe c t i ve l y:(i 1/2 )Fi Eas y,(i i r s tnot i c eρ(n)≤φ (n).Andt he nwer e f e rt o[8,9]f or(3.2).(i v)Wer e f e r )ByThe ≤∞ andθ ≥pr /(2(r -p)),t t o[11].(i i i or e m 4.1of[10]i f2<p<r he n n E Σε i +m p r p/r ≤ Knp/2 max(E|ε ∀n≥ 1,m ≥ 1 i + m|) , i =1 1≤ i ≤n andt he nbyat he or e m of[6] p r p/r E max|ε ..+ ε np/2 max(E|ε ∀n≥ 1,m ≥ 1. m+ 1 +. m+ k| ≤ K' i + m|) . 1≤ k≤ n 1≤ i ≤n 2+δ .The n δ 2 p 2/p Emax|ε ..+ ε Emax|ε ..+ ε ≤ Cn m+ 1 +. m+ k| ≤ ( m+ 1 +. m+ k|) =2+δ,andps >pr /2(r -p)> Now,c hoos er uf f i c i e nt l yne ar2s uc ht hatθ k≤ n k≤ n [7] and(3.2)i sve r i f i e d.(v)Ne wmanandWr i ght e s t abl i s he dt hef ol l owi ngi ne qual i t y: 2 2 ..+ ε E(ε ..+ ε Emax(ε 1 +. k) ≤ 2 1 +. n), k≤ n whi c hl e adst o n- 1 n 2 2 E(ε ..+ ε Eε 1 +. n) = n 1+ 2 Σ Σ Cov(εi,εj)≤ 2nσ2. i = 1j =i +1 I tf ol l owst hat 2 2 Emax(ε ..+ ε x(ε ..+ ε nσ2, m+ 1 +. m+ k) = Ema 1 +. k) ≤ 4 k≤ n k≤ n t hus(3.2)i sve r i f i e d. 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