Cassidian Systems
SAP based Programme Risk Analysis
John Ducker
March 2011
April 11
Content
• EADS Cassidian Systems - An Overview
• The need for a new approach - developing the Solution
• Standard Production Models
• Source Data
• Cost, Effort and Duration Distributions
• Cumulative Probabilities
• Tracking Planned / Actuals
• Understanding the Results
• Summary – Closed Loop Model
• Conclusion – Comparitive SWOT
• Questions.
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EADS at a glance: A Global Leader
•
EADS is a global leader in aerospace, defence and related services
•
€43 billion revenue in 2009
•
Workforce of 118,000
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EADS Divisions - The Four Firm Walls EADS is built on
•A380 Double-Decker Aircraft
•A350 extra wide body is the latest addition to the fleet
•Airbus Military designs and manufactures special
mission aircraft for military and security tasks
•Is the world leader in the design and manufacture of
satellite systems
•Prime contractor to ESA for its major space
exploration programme
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•The world’s No.1 manufacturer of civil and parapublic
helicopters
•Strong worldwide presence through its 18 subsidiaries
on 5 continents
•Integrated system solutions to meet its customers’
needs for Network Enhanced Capabilities
April 11
EADS Employees by Country
as of December 31, 2009
France
Germany
Spain
United Kingdom
Other Countries
44,760
(37 %)
43,814
(37 %)
10,469
(9 %)
12,733
(11 %)
USA
2,512
(2 %)
Rest of
World
5,218
(4 %)
Total Number of Employees: 119,506
Standard Presentation
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17.09.2010
5
April 11
The Cassidian Organisation
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Cassidian at Newport
Merged 3 sites into Newport Campus in 2008.
Delivering large scale Change Programmes.
Service operation centre supporting operational networks.
Hosting critical data centre.
EADS centre for Innovation & Research.
• Joint venture with Welsh Assembly Government &
universities
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April 11
Cassidian at Newport
Ectocryp
New generation network encryption device
EADS PI initiative
Transparent operation & HAIPE compliant
Varying levels of security for Government and industry
Accredited to Top Secret over the internet.
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April 11
Cassidian at Newport
Skynet 5
£3.6bn project for Ministry of Defence.
Led by Paradigm Secure Communications Ltd with Cassidian
(Systems) as a major partner.
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April 11
Cassidian at Newport
Cyber Security
Growing need for new solutions and products to face cyber threats
International Cyber Security Customer Solution Centre opening 2010.
Centre will meet the needs of operators of critical IT infrastructure
Provides expertise and solutions to detect and respond to complex cyber
threats.
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April 11
Cassidian at Newport
Defence Information Infrastructure (DII)
DII is a key MOD Change Programme
EADS part of the ATLAS Consortium providing the providing
MoD with an upgraded secure IT infrastructure.
Provides 300,000 users in 2,000 locations with a single
information network.
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SAP Based Programme Risk Analysis
Note : All numeric data used in this presentation is fictitious
and is used only for the purpose of illustrating the general
method of analysis.
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Developing the Solution 1
• Managed Services - Production, Build or Implementation
element of the work requires significantly more effort and is
riskier than the Design or Support elements.
• Client Defined High Level Schedule – Dynamic planning
environment due to site readiness factors.
• Traditional Gantt based Monte Carlo simulations – difficult
to respond to rapidly changing plans.
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Developing the Solution 2
Contains the cost model, first
Extracts
SAP areWork
analysed
in Excel using
@Risk
Site from
Deployment
completed
according
to
developed asis
the
Bid position
and
Prothe
for plan
Excel.
Output
from
this
analysis
feeds
both
The
Site
Deployment
Plan
contains
the
detailed
Classic
closed
control
loop,
therefore
any
and
thedeveloped
cost
other
metrics
then
as the
contract
The High
Level
Planand
determines,
withrecorded
client
Montein
Carlo
Simulations
( distribution
curves
) and
planning
information
for
individual
Sites
or the
perturbations
resulting
from
adjustments
to
estimates
SAP
(
SAP
Time
Bookings
)
against
the
matures
with workschedule
extensions
and
input,
the production
for
the(WBS
Cost
to Complete
( EAC
) process.
production
units
). Estimated
Cost,
Effort,
are automatically
smoothed
by
feedback
established
at
the
previous
stage.
refined
estimates.
Thecase
Business
deliverable
elements.
Inconstant
the
of
this
Duration
and
Start
/
Finish
dates
are
included.
from
the analysis
process
resulting
in
automatic
Model example
takes closed
loop
‘ Sites
‘. feedback
This data is
input
into improvement.
SAP
also baselined
continuous
from
Monte
Carloand
Simulations
and into
Excel for futurethe
reference
and
comparison
with
SAP based analysis
actual work performance data.
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Standardised Unit Production Model
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Standardised Unit Production Types
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Example SAP Data Extract
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Completion Cost Distribution
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( Other Distributions )
Normal / Pert Fit
3 Point / Triangular Fit
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Effort and Duration Distributions
Effort
Duration
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Cost to Complete – Cumulative Probability
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Effort and Duration – Cumulative Probabilities
Effort
Duration
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Comparing Actual and Planned Probabilities
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Tracking Program Performance
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Tracking Actual / Planned Ratios
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Understanding the Result ( 1 )
•Sample Size / Early Optimism
– Quick Win bias a threat.
•Risk and Opportunity Impacts
– Actual measured results, no simulations.
– Independent of Schedule quality and constraints.
– Visible effects on Cost and Effort as well as Duration.
•Fitted Distribution – Process Maturity
– Correlation of performance figures.
– Decreasing Deviation with maturity.
•Error Detection
– Exceptions readily apparent from unexpected deviation.
•Most likely and Statistical Mean
– Simple distinction from elementary symmetrical distributions.
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Understanding the Result ( 2 )
•Confidence Intervals
– Confidence based on past actual performance.
– 3 point estimates readily determined for future applications.
•Earned Value Indications
– Ratios of Actual / Planned statistical Means provide strong indicators.
•Resource Planning
– Probability weighted Measures of completion effort and utilisation optimise
resource planning.
•Estimated Completion Cost
– Simple extrapolation and scaling of cost curves provide probability weighted
completion estimates.
•Trend Analysis
– Routine analysis reveals program performance trends in all key domains.
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DII LARGE SCALE SITE INSTALLATION CONTROL MODEL
BAFO Position
RFCs
Delay Claims( ICDN )
Sequence Changes
Labour Rate Changes
Contract Increments
April 11
Delivered Sites.
NS Handover.
RFCs
Delay Notices ( ICDN )
Network Services ( NS )
Design & Integration ( D & I )
Business Model
ATLAS
High Level Plan
( Sequence / HLP )
Site IMPL Plans
Site IMPL Work
Cumulative
probability of
delivery dates ( ‘ S ‘
Curves )
DII – Closed Loop Process Control.
Business Model
DII Project Risk
Predictive Monte Carlo
Register
Simulations
( Delay Impacts )
Generates Cost Baseline for given Work
- Estimation, Costing, Planning and
Estimates calibrated
Sequences.
against Actuals
Risk Management.
achieved
Costing of Change
(RFC
Mean &Process).
Mode
Effort, ‘ Actuals
-statistical
Using
‘ Probability
metrics to calibrate
Duration
Duration and
Distribution Functions
Flexible Modelling Assumptions.
Utilisation
estimates
and schedules.
values
Effort-Driven Model. completion
by Site Type
Consolidates by Client WBS and
EADS
@Risk Analysis.
Probability
Workstream. Cost to Complete.
Distributions for
Estimation Metrics.
Site Effort /
Generates Model Cost Form. completed
Time metrics
Provides Input to the Pricing
Workmodels.
in Progress
Page 28
John Ducker March 2007
SAP Time Bookings
( completed Sites )
Copyright EADS DS UK
2007 v2 Jul 07
April 11
Conclusion - SWOT Analysis 1
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Conclusion - SWOT Analysis 2
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Conclusion - Overall
• Where ‘ Actual ‘ data is available the described
method will provide superior accuracy.
• Where only ‘ Planned ‘ data is available, Monte
Carlo simulation is the best solution.
• The ‘ @Risk ‘ Toolset may be used for both types
of analysis
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Risk Management Awards 2010
Best Use of Technology in
Risk Management
Winner
Cassidian Systems ( UK )
( DII Programme )
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QUESTIONS ?
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