Climate
Change and
Conflict
Cindy L. Parker MD, MPH
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Dept. of Environmental Health Sciences
Physicians for Social Responsibility
Risk Factors for Conflict
• Competition for scarce resources
– Population growth increases competition
 availability of food and water sources
• Migration
– Crossing cultural or national borders
– Environmental refugees
•
•
•
•
Partial democracy
Demographic & economic inequities
Gender inequality, youth bulge
Abundance of lootable resources
2
The Resource Curse:
Abundance as well as Scarcity Can Lead to Conflict
•Oil, timber, diamonds,
gold, coltan
•Fungible, portable,
lucrative
•Worth fighting over
•Funding the fighting
3
Water Availability
Now:
• 2.3 billion people live in
water stressed areas
• 1.7 billion live in water
scarce areas*
By 2025: 3.5 billion
people projected to live in
water stressed areas
• 2.4 billion in water
scarce areas*
By 2100: With BAU climate change scenarios, nearly 1/3 of
the world’s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought**
*UNEP
**Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Sept. 2006
4
Gleick’s typology of historical
water conflicts:
• Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at
the root of tensions
• Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of
military actions by nations or states
• Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon
during a military action
• Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for
a political goal
• Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of
violence or coercion by non-state actors
• Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major
source of contention/dispute in context of economic
development
5
www.pacinst.org
• Kenya: deforestation  less rain and more run-off 
water scarcity  hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars
• Most water conflict has been intra-national
6
How Climate Change Affects Environmental Resources
Coastal
flooding,
damage
Sea level rise
Extreme weather
events
Infestation
↑ runoff rates
More
frequent
droughts,
floods
Changed hydro
cycles
transpiration rates,
soil moisture,
precipitation
patterns
Degradation
of farm land
erosion, nutrient
depletion,
compacting,
salinization, loss
to urbanization
Erosion,
silting
water,
food
Reduced irrigation
capacity
Overuse,
pollution of
water supplies
7
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
Environmental Scarcity and Conflict
↓ water,
food
Migration,
expulsion
“Supplyinduced
scarcity”
Population
growth
“Demandinduced
scarcity”
Unequal
resource
access
“Structureinduced
scarcity”
Increased
environmental
scarcity
Ethnic
conflicts
Weakened
states
Decreased
economic
productivity
Coups
d’état
Deprivation
conflicts
8
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
A Case Study: Gaza
Supply-induced Scarcity:
• Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater
• Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters
– 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to
evaporation
– Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer
– Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage,
agricultural runoff, and saltwater
• 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply
9
Consumption of Groundwater in Gaza
Demand-induced scarcity:
• Consumption:
160 million m³/year
– Sustainable supply:
50-60 million m³/year
• Population increases
– ~1.6 million people
– Fertility rate 6%; population
growth rate 3.78%
10
Structural Scarcity
• Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption
– Frozen at 1967 levels
– Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person
• Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or
repairing water/sewer infrastructure
• Uneven pricing schemes
– Israeli settlers pay $0.10/m³
– Palestinians pay $1.20/m³
– Relative to income, Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli
settlers pay for water
• Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking
water to ~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking
water
– Families pay as much as 1/3 their monthly income for
water
11
Environmental Scarcity and Conflict
↓ water,
food
Migration,
expulsion
“Supplyinduced
scarcity”
Population
growth
“Demandinduced
scarcity”
Unequal
resource
access
“Structureinduced
scarcity”
Increased
environmental
scarcity
Ethnic
conflicts
Weakened
states
Decreased
economic
productivity
Coups
d’état
Deprivation
conflicts
12
Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999
Food Supply and Climate Change
• Grain yields  by 10% for every 1°C  in
global average surface T°
• 2°C to 3°C  likely; 3°C to 5°C  possible
• Therefore 20% to 30%  likely;
30% to 50%  possible
 2.5 billion people by 2050
13
CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY
CLIMATE DRIVERS
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
GHG EMISSIONS
25% CO 2
50% CH4
75% NO 2
­ TAVG
­ TEXT
­ CO2
­ DROUGHT
­ EXTREME RAINFALL &
FLOODS
­ SEA LEVEL
­ TROPOSPHERIC O3
MELTING GLACIERS & D
RIVER FLOWS
­ OCEAN T
­ OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
D OCEAN & WIND
CURRENTS
FOOD WASTE
· PRODUCTION
· DISTRIBUTION & RETAIL
· POST-CONSUMER
PRODUCTION
SECTORS
­ MEAT DEMAND
­ WILDFIRES
­ SOIL EROSION
­ DESTRUCTION EQUIPMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE
­ RESISTANCE TO PESTS & DISEASES
D RANGE OF PESTS, DISEASES & WEEDS
­ H2O & SOIL SALINIZATION
¯ H2O FOR IRRIGATION
­ MAJOR CROP LOSSES
¯ CROP QUALITY& YIELDS
AGRICULTURE
D PATTERNS OF CONSUMPTION
­ FOOD
DEMAND
POPULATION GROWTH
­ INITIAL YIELDS OF SOME CROPS IN TEMPERATE AREAS
¯ FOOD PRODUCTION
CLIMATE
TIPPING
POINTS
­ PHYSIOLOGIC STRESS
·
REPRODUCTION
·
QUALITY & QUANTITY MEAT, MILK, EGGS
­ MASS MORTALITY
­ DESTRUCTION EQUIPMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE
­ RANGE & ABUNDANCE OF ANIMAL DISEASES
­ ENERGY USE AND COSTS
D PRODUCTIVITY OF RANGELANDS & GRASSLANDS
·
­ TEMPERATE REGIONS
·
¯ ARID & SEMIARID REGIONS
·
¯ NUTRITIVE QUALITY
D FEED GRAIN SUPPLY & PRICE
LIVESTOCK
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
­ EVAPORATION
¯ AQUIFERS
¯STORED & DIVERTABLE
WATER FOR IRRIGATION
D PHYSIOLOGY
D RANGE & ABUNDANCE
·
ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTION
·
SPECIES LOSS
STRATIFICATION OF H2O COLUMN
·
¯ PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY
HABITAT DESTRUCTION
­ PREVALENCE & SEVERITY OF DISEASE
¯ CALCIFEROUS SPECIES & CORAL REEFS
­ DESTRUCTION EQUIPMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE
­ DAYS LOST AT SEA
CAPTURE
FISHERIES
DESERTIFICATION
EROSION
SALINIZATION
WATER-LOGGED SOILS
& FLOODS
REGIONAL
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
(ENSO, NAO)
LOSS OF LIVELIHOODS
DISTRIBUTION
INFRASTRUCTURE DESTRUCTION
· FOOD PROCESSING, PACKAGING &
STORING FACILITIES
· ROADS, BRIDGES, RAIL, AIRPORTS,
SHIPPING ROUTES
D TYPE OF CROPS,
LIVESTOCK & FISH
PRODUCED/CAUGHT
INDIVIDUAL FOOD SUPPLY
¯ FOOD AVAILABILITY
RESOURCES
TECHNOLOGY
¯ WATER FOR FOOD PRODUCTION
LAND & SOIL
LAND GRABS
GMO DROUGHT, PEST & DISEASE RESISTANT VARIETIES
RENEWABLE ENERGY
TISSUE CULRE MEAT
D CROPPING PATTERNS
ACCESS
­ FOOD PRICE
¯ LAND FOR FOOD PRODUCTION
LABOR
URBANIZATION
¯FOOD
DISTRIBUTION
RESILIENCY VS VULNERABILITY
­ GROWTH RATE & FOOD CONVERSION EFFICIENCIES (SOME SPECIES)
­ RANGE EXPANSION (SOME AREAS)
WATER
FOOD DISTRIBUTION DELAYS
& DISRUPTIONS
ADAPTATION & MANAGEMENT
¯ H2O QUALITY & QUANTITY
·
¯ DISSOLVED O2 ,­ ACIDITY, D SALINITY
·
­ PHYSIOLOGIC STRESS
­ FREQUENT ALGAL BLOOMS, DISEASES, TOXIC EVENTS
­ INVASIVE SPECIES & PREDATORS FROM ALTERED ECOSYSTEMS
¯ RANGE OF SUITABLE SPECIES (SOME AREAS)
­ DESTRUCTION EQUIPMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE
AQUACULTURE
¯GLOBAL
FOOD
SUPPLY
ECONOMIC LOSSES
HEAT STRESS & OTHER HEALTH EFFECTS
¯ PRODUCTIVITY
¯ FOOD
AFFORDABILITY
¯ FOOD ACCESS
¯ FOOD AID
ENERGY
­ ENERGY PRICES
FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCE
POLLUTION
INCOMPATIBILITY WITH CULTURAL/RELIGIOUS
FOOD PREFERENCES
LABOR
SUPPLY
COMMODITY
SPECULATION
POVERTY
INCOME INEQUALITY
¯ INDIVIDUAL
FOOD
SUPPLY
UTILIZATION
D PATTERNS INFECTIOUS DISEASE
­ DIARRHEAL DISEASES
POLICIES
ENERGY
FOOD & AGRICULTURE
POLITICAL
INSTABILITY
& CONFLICT
¯ NUTRIENT
ABSORPTION
FOOD RIOTS
¯ FOOD SAFETY
CARBON TAX
­ FOODBORNE ILLNESS
COMMODITY SUBSIDIES
FOOD INSECURITY
BIOFUEL SUBSIDIES
FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
HUNGER
RENEWABLE
SUBSIDIES
PROTECTIONIST BARRIERS
FAMINE
­ FOOD SPOILAGE
¯FOOD
UTILIZATION
The Global Food System and Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
Social, Political & Economic Factors
Meat consumption
Technology
Policies
Economic Development
Food Prices
Adaptation
Resilience vs
Vulnerability
Global
Global
Food
Food
Sectors
Production
Production
Agriculture
Livestock
Wild Sectors
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Agriculture
Livestock
Wild Resources
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Land
Water
Resources
Energy
Land
Soil
Water
Labor
Energy
Soil
Labor
?
Global
Food
Supply
Distribution
Population
Conflict
Poverty/Inequality
Income
Food Aid
Individual
Food
Supply
Access
The Arab Spring
16
2007 IPPC FAR; http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page6.php
Syria Vegetation Health Index
Global Assessment
Report on Disaster
Risk Reduction:
Drought vulnerability
in the Arab region:
Special case study on
Syria, 2010
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.
17
pdf
Environmental Peacemaking
• Scarce resources can be used as a tool
• Cooperate to manage environmental
resources
– transform insecurities and
– create more peaceful relationships between
parties in dispute
– overcome political tensions
– promoting interaction, confidence building, and
technical cooperation
-Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Former Director
Environmental Change and Security Program
18
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Minerva Initiative of the U.S. Pentagon
Engage scientific community to identify
– Regions of high risk
– Elements of climate change related risk
• Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease
– Elements of resilience
• What allows communities faced with catastrophe to
NOT devolve into conflict?
• How can the US assist in fostering these elements to
prevent future conflict
19