Hazus Earthquake Loss
Estimation Model Calibration
M 5.8, August 23, 2011
Mineral, Virginia Earthquake
DR-4042
Rare East Coast Opportunity
Acknowledgements
• Dr. Abbie Lyle and Will Beckman, CU
Boulder, School of Engineering
• Bob Hardy, Louisa County Assessor’s
Office
• Will Blair, FEMA R III Public Assistance
• Bill Boyer, FEMA Individual Assistance
• Jesse Rozelle, FEMA Region VIII
Modeled Damage Data
• Hazard: USGS ShakeMap supplemented
with abundant felt data
• Inventory: Hazus default, HSIP Gold and
Louisa County Assessors Data
• Vulnerability: Hazus Advanced
Engineering Building Module with
ShakeMap calibrated damage functions
Earthquake Information Timeline
0
5min
10-20min
40min
Did You Feel It?/USGS TED
1hr
2hrs
24hrs
Areas of Strong Shaking
Centered in rural area
near Mineral, Va.
Baltimore
Impact could have been
much worse.…imagine
under Richmond
Analogous event:
M6.1 below Christchurch
• Similar buildings
• 184 deaths
• $16 billion in damage
WEST
VIRGINIA
Perceived
shaking
Severe
Very strong
Strong
Washington
VIRGINIA
MARYLAND
Richmond
Severe = moderate to heavy damage
Very strong = moderate damage
USGS ShakeMap intensity – August 24, 2011
Modified from R. Williams, USGS
“Did You Feel It?”
M5.8 Virginia
Aug, 2011
Earthquakes are felt over much larger area in Eastern U.S.
USGS “Did you feel it?” comparison
M6.0 earthquake
Central California
Sept. 28, 2004
M5.8 earthquake
Central Virginia
August 23, 2011
Dots represent areas
where people reported at
least weak shaking
ShakeCast
“Recordings or estimates of
shaking intensity at specific
sites or critical facilities in
the strongly-shaken region
of an earthquake.”
Virginia Statewide Modeled Losses
• Remarkable overall agreement with 7,300
required IA inspections
Virginia Statewide Modeled Losses
• Predominantly Non-Structural Damages
8-23-11 Earthquake Damage in Central Virginia
VA DMME, Matt Heller
USGS, Francis Ashland
Zone of severe
structural damage ~7
miles from epicenter
USGS, Mark Carter
VA DMME, Matt Heller
Modified from R. Williams, USGS
Observed Damage Data
• FEMA Individual Assistance
•
•
•
Verified Full Value Repair
Damage component break down
Homeowner and Rental assistance program
losses
• FEMA Public Assistance
•
Project worksheets for 6 Louisa County schools
• Louisa County Press Releases
Summary of FEMA Program Assistance
•
•
•
•
Over $39.3 Million in Disaster Aid Approved for Virginia
"FEMA has provided over $39 million in assistance to help Virginia residents and
businesses recover from the earthquake.
The rebuilding of Louisa County High School also took a giant step forward with a
$19.1 million FEMA grant. The balance of the anticipated $42.9 million project will
be funded through insurance proceeds, the Commonwealth and local sources.
Below is the breakdown of federal aid for the nine areas affected by earthquake as
of Thursday, February 23, 2012:
– Over 7200 households have registered for Individual Assistance.
– Over $12.9 million in grants have been approved through the FEMA Individuals and
Household Program.
– Over $3.8 million in loans have been approved by the SBA for homeowners, renters and
business owners affected by the earthquake.
– Over 7300 home inspections have been requested. Almost 5600 requests have been
completed.
– Over $22.6 million in grants have been obligated to the Commonwealth under FEMA Public
Assistance (PA) program, whose applicants include the Commonwealth and its agencies,
local governments and certain non-profit organizations.
Detailed IA Inspections (Full Verified Loss)
Modeled and IA Observed Loss by Type
• Predominantly non structural losses agree
with modeled results
IA Damage Type for Repair
Hazus Modeled $ Loss
9%
3,765
10%
$10.15M
90%
$91.31
structural damage
structural damage
non-structural damage
non-structural damage
91%
36,254
Hazus Advanced Engineering Building
Module (AEBM)
• Provides ability for detailed site-specific
earthquake loss estimation
• Run using 14,835 structure records from
Louisa County parcel data and for damaged
Louisa County schools
• Modeled results were joined to IA inspections
completed for 3,126 residential structures in
Louisa County, as well as Public Assistance
PWs for schools.
Louisa County Assessor Data
Assessor data, provided year
built, exterior wall type,
foundation type, area and
occupancy type.
ExtWall (code)
Worked with engineering
community to assign Hazus
building types and design
levels.
Description
Brick
Brick
Brick
YearBuilt
<1901
1901-1975
>1975
Hazus Bldg
Type
URM
W1
W1
Hazus
Code
Level
PC
PC
LC
Frame
Frame
<1975
>1975
W1
W1
PC
LC
Alum
Alum
Alum
<1901
1901-1975
>1975
URM
W1
W1
PC
PC
LC
Description
Count
20 Frame
21 Brick
22 Alum
23 Asbestos
24 Stucco (o)
25 Cndrblk (o)
27 Metal
28 Prmstn
29 Vinyl
30 Log (o)
31 Asphalt
32 Cedar
33 Masonite
35 DryVit
36 Wood Siding
39 Steel
41 Concrete Board
44 Hardboard
46 Board & Batten
54 Stucco
55 Cinderblock
56 Stone
60 Log
2792
1530
1043
330
1
7
67
2
7582
8
3
733
20
8
4
1
45
39
2
33
247
32
304
Parcel Data Summary
• 14,835 structures, 262 of the that are 1900 and
earlier. There are also 1455 records with no date
• < 1901 Unreinforced Masonry was prevalent
• 1975 general benchmark date for incorporation
of minimal building code provisions for lateral
loads (adoption of BOCA in Virginia)
• Louisa County Population Trend: 16,151 in 1830
and 17,825 in 1980, and then doubled to 35K
today
AEBM Results-Luisa County Parcel Data
Local Damage Assessments
Louisa Updates Earthquake Damage Estimates
August 31, 2011
• Preliminary damage assessments began last week in Louisa County. State officials
have joined with local teams in an effort to estimate the extent of damage caused
by the 5.8 magnitude earthquake on Tuesday, August 23.
• For all assessment completed through Friday, estimates are as follows:
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
- $57.5 million in damages to public school structures
- $11.5 million in damages to residential structures
- $400,000 in damages to religious structures
- $400,000 in damages to commercial structures
- $500,000 in damages to government structures (not including public schools)
That brings the total estimated damages to $70.3 million.
The damage to Louisa County Public Schools and Louisa County government
structures are covered by insurance and local officials are working with insurance
adjusters to determine coverage limits and direct costs.
The majority of residential structures did not have earthquake insurance. Officials
expect these figures to change as damage assessment teams continue to traverse
the county.
PW Loss Comparison
Name
Louisa High School 1938 Bldg
Louisa High School 1958 Bldg
Louisa High School-Gym (1972)
Louisa High School 1983 Bldg
Louisa High School 2000 Bldg
Year Built Profile
1938 RM2L_PC
1958 RM2L_PC
1972 S5L_PC
1983 RM2L_LC
2000 RM2L_LC
total
Thomas Jefferson Elementary School-1950 Bldg
Thomas Jefferson Elementary School-1960 Bldg
Thomas Jefferson Elementary School-1966 Bldg
Thomas Jefferson Elementary School-1981 Bldg
PW Repair Value
$
2,825,000
$
15,100,000
$
17,925,000
1950 RM2L_PC
1960 RM2L_PC
1966 RM2L_PC
1981 RM2L_LC
total
$
9,500,000
Jouett Elementary 1985 Bldg
1985 RM2L_LC
Jouett Elementary 1990 Bldg
1990 RM2L_LC
$
688,839
Trevilians Elementary School
1963 RM2L_PC
$
747,094
Moss-Nuckols Elementary School
2010 RM2L_MC $
946,119
Name
Louisa High School-Gym (1972)
AEBM
LossTotEconomic
$
1,277,662
Thomas Jefferson Elementary
School-1950 Bldg
Louisa High School 1938 Bldg
Trevilians Elementary School
$
$
$
325,269
241,027
229,550
Thomas Jefferson Elementary
School-1981 Bldg
Jouett Elementary 1990 Bldg
Jouett Elementary 1985 Bldg
$
$
$
204,526
202,885
202,885
Thomas Jefferson Elementary
School-1960 Bldg
Louisa High School 1958 Bldg
Louisa High School 1983 Bldg
Louisa High School 2000 Bldg
$
$
$
$
199,870
184,756
147,364
101,043
Thomas Jefferson Elementary
School-1966 Bldg
$
82,472
$
763
Moss-Nuckols Elementary School
Total $
3,400,070
Modeled losses are an order of magnitude less than the observed damage to
Louisa County schools
Modeling to Support Earthquake PDAs
• Credible,
rapid results
• Hidden
damages
• 90% of
damages are
non-structural
and harder to
see
Summary
• Good agreement and potential applications
for regional loss estimation
• Provided good estimate of potential # of IA
applicants and inspections
• Good agreement between residential
modeled losses and IA inspections
• Significant underestimation of damage to
Louisa County schools