Capacity Management, Demand Management,
and Performance Engineering Integration
Ann Dowling
adowling@us.ibm.com
© 2009 IBM Corporation
IT Optimization and Service Management
The Capacity Management Process is comprised of six key
Activities.
Establish Capacity Management Framework:
Based on the business and IT strategy and the
architectural models, guidelines and a framework for capacity management will be developed.
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 Model and Size Capacity Requirements:
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P
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– Modeling involves performance and capacity prediction through estimation, trend analysis,
analytical modeling, simulation modeling and benchmarking. Application sizing is a technique that
predicts the capacity solution required to meet service level requirements for response times,
throughput, and batch elapsed times.
 Monitor, Analyze, and Report Capacity Usage:
– Monitors should be established on all the components and for each of the services. The data
should be analyzed using, wherever possible, expert systems to compare usage levels against
thresholds. The results of the analysis should be included in reports, and recommendations made
as appropriate.
Supervise Tuning and Capacity Delivery:
– Outputs from monitoring, analyzing, and reporting activities are examined and actions to tune
individual resources or to re-balance the available capacity are planned and initiated through
Change and Release Management.
 Produce and Maintain Capacity Plan:
– The objective of this activity is to develop, maintain, test and revise alternative approaches in
satisfying various enterprise-shared resource requirements. It delivers the capacity plan that
addresses the customer's resource requirements.
Evaluate Capacity Management Process Performance:
Measurements include the definition,
collection of measurements, analysis, review and reporting for Capacity Management.
2
IT Optimization and Service Management
There are three sub-processes that comprise the ITIL® Capacity Management
process. Each uses the primary activities of the process decomposition in
differing ways, to differing stakeholders, to differing end results.
Business Capacity Management (BCM)
 translates business needs and plans into requirements for service and
IT infrastructure, ensuring that the future business requirements for IT
services are quantified, designed, planned and implemented in a timely
fashion
Service Capacity Management (SCM)
 management, control and prediction of the end-to-end performance and
capacity of the live, operational IT services usage and workloads
Component Capacity Management (CCM)
 management, control and prediction of the performance, utilization and
capacity of individual IT technology components
"ITIL ® is a Registered Trade Mark, and a Registered Community Trade Mark of the Office of
Government Commerce, and is Registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office"
3
IT Optimization and Service Management
Elements of Demand Management are the main source of
business demand that Capacity Management uses to develop
capacity forecasts and solutions.
Conceptual View
Business processes are the primary
source of demand for services.
Patterns of business activity (PBA)
influence the demand patterns seen
by the service providers (Figure5.23)
It is very important to study the
customer’s business to identify,
analyse and codify such patterns to
provide sufficient basis for Capacity
Management.
Excerpted from “Service economics” chapter of itSMF publication for
ITIL® V3 core documents, 2008-12-15.
Visualize the customer’s business
activity and plans in terms of the
demand for supporting services
Note: IBM provides additional process guidance supporting Demand Management and other ITIL processes.
•
IBM Tivoli Unified Process (ITUP)
4
IT Optimization and Service Management
And…add ITIL V3 Service Strategy Demand Management
for ‘sense and respond’ alignment with client Business Transformation
ITIL® Demand Management Key Activities:
 Establish Demand Management framework
 Value and classify business demands
 Consolidate business demand patterns and
forecasts
 Forecast service demand
 Identify and plan demand management
initiatives
 Assess and report demand management
outcomes
 Evaluate demand management
performance
Capacity Management translates demand
through to the component level.
5
IT Optimization and Service Management
Several tasks in the Demand Management process need to be driven by the
Capacity Management team in order to initiate progress toward improved
capacity requirements and forecasts.
Demand Mgmt.
Key Activity
Demand Mgmt.
Task
Relationship with Capacity Management
Note: This is a minimal subset to provide input to Capacity Management for Demand Management
6
Value and Classify
Business Demands
Identify and Analyze
Business Demand
Streams and Demand
Work with business areas to gather business demand
information, analyze types of demand in business terms and
obtain trend of the demand - For customers of IT, internal and
external
Forecast Service
Demand
Create Business Demand
Forecasts
Work with business areas to create forecasts of business
demand for major business areas
Assess & Report
Demand Mgt.
Identify Service Demand
Baselines
Determine existing baselines for service demand. for given
business areas
Forecast Service
Demand
Translate Service Demand
to Service Consumption
Units
Convert service demand into service consumption units for the
business areas
Forecast Service
Demand
Translate Business
Demands to Service
Demands
Take business demand data and results and identify demand for
specific IT services
Forecast Service
Demand
Create Service Demand
Forecasts
Take the Service Demands and create forecast for the required
IT services (input to “Model and Size Capacity Requirements”
and “Produce and Maintain Capacity Plan”
IT Optimization and Service Management
IBM leverages its Performance Engineering and Management Method
(PEMM) for its engagements.
 PEMM was first outlined in 1998 in an IBM internal white paper, as a comprehensive
approach to addressing performance throughout the lifecycle of a custom application
development (CAD) project.
 It was developed into a comprehensive method with full elaboration of the eight major
Themes, supporting Work Products, exploration of the Role of the Performance Architect
and the mult-disciplinary Performance Engineering Team
 In addition to the traditional disciplines of performance testing and performance/capacity
planning and management, PEMM stresses the need for proactive performance
engineering tasks which should be taking place during earlier project phases (i.e.
requirements, architecture, design & development) and managing the scalability, capacity
and performance in the production environment.
 PEMM is the basis of an internal IBM course on “Architecting for Performance” that is
included in the education roadmap for the IBM Architect Profession.
 PEMM has been customized by IBM on multiple engagements across several industries,
including several large Insurance industry clients.
7
PHASES
THEMES
PEOPLE
The three dimensions of Performance Engineering:
• The project Phases and deliverables dimension defined in your project development
standards
• The People dimension in which you build and maintain your relationships with other key
members of the project and within the Performance Engineering team itself.
• The Themes dimension in which you maintain and drive forward the longer conceptual
threads of activity needed to help you achieve your objectives.
IT Optimization and Service Management
The PEMM themes apply across the life cycle and produce a set of outputs
also shared and refined throughout the life cycle. PEMM directly maps to
YOUR life cycle and beyond into Introduction and Deployment.
Software Development Life Cycle
Startup
Solution Outline
Macro
Design
Solution
Requirements
Micro
Design
Build
Deployment
Solution
Close
►Performance Engineering and Management Method
performance engineering activities completed in the earliest part of the project to ensure
performance and capacity requirements are well-defined and assessed at the outset
Requirements and Early Design
analyzing the quantitative (volumes) factors, both business and
technical, that will effect system performance
Volumetrics
activities associated with predicting future
performance behavior or capacity
requirements of a system
Performance Estimation and Modeling
investigation required to make estimation and modeling
more accurate and fact-based
PE activities conducted during the development life cycle
Design, Development, and Tracking
include supporting design and code reviews and establishing
performance time or resource utilization budgets
test and assess the performance of the live solution,
Performance Testing and Validation
usually by an independent performance test team
Technology Research
manage performance and capacity of the deployed solution in production, using
monitoring tools and processes and service level agreements
Live Monitoring and Capacity Management
Risk and Performance Management
Outputs
ensure risks related to performance and capacity are properly identified, assessed and addressed
8
 PE Strategy
 Non-Functional
Requirements
 Business Volumetrics
 PE Risk Assessment
and Containment
Plan
 PE Plan
 Performance Critical
Use Cases
 Technical Volumetrics
 Performance Budgets
 Performance Model




Application Profiles
Capacity Sizing
Monitoring Plan
Performance Test
Cases
 Measurement
Specifications
 Performance Analysis
Results
 Tuning
Recommendations





Performance Service Levels
Monitoring Thresholds/Alerts
Implemented Tuning
Capacity Plan
Capacity Plan vs. Actual reports
IT Optimization and Service Management
Integration points foster mutual awareness and collaboration between the
Capacity Management process and Performance Engineering themes which
mutually strengthens the overall effectiveness.
Capacity Planning for a future system deployment
Capacity Management for a deployed system
Capacity
Management
view as
embodied in ITIL
and IBM’s ITUP
Business
Supervise Tuning
and Capacity
Delivery
Model and size
capacity
requirements
Monitor, Analyze
and Report
Capacity Usage
(Service
Management
perspective)
Performance
Engineering view
as embodied in
PEMM
(Solution Design
and Delivery
perspective)
Volumetric
s
Requirement
s and Early
Design
Estimatio
n and
Modeling
Service
Design,
Developmen
t and
Tracking
Technolog
y
Research
Test
Planning
and
Execution
Produce and
maintain capacity
plan
Live
Production
Component
Performance Engineering of a solution being developed
and/or assembled
Performance Management of a solution being deployed
9
IT Optimization and Service Management
The convergence of Capacity Management, Demand Management, and
Performance Engineering (PEMM) provides a powerful and truly full life
cycle methodology.
Demand Management
Patterns of Business
Activity and Demand
Policies
Performance Engineering Risk Assessment
Non-Functional Requirements
Performance Model
Capacity Management
Information System &
Capacity Plan
Performance Engineering & Management Method
(PEMM based)
Capacity Management Process
(ITIL® based)
Feasibility
10
Design
Development
Test
•
IBM’s Performance Engineering & Management Method (PEMM)
•
IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL®)
Deploy
Production
Optimize
IT Optimization and Service Management
Model and Size Capacity Requirements
Supervise Tuning
and Capacity
Delivery
Model and size
capacity
requirements
Produce and
maintain capacity
plan
Monitor, Analyze
and Report
Capacity Usage
Volumetrics
Requirements
and Early
Design
Estimation
and
Modeling
Technology
Research
11
Design,
Development
and Tracking
Live
Production
Test
Planning
and
Execution
IT Optimization and Service Management
Model and Size Capacity Requirements
 Modeling involves performance and capacity prediction through
estimation, trend analysis, analytical modeling, simulation modeling
and benchmarking. Modeling can be performed for all or any layer of
the IT solution including the business, application and technology
infrastructure.
 Application sizing is a technique that predicts the service level
requirements for response times, throughput, and batch elapsed times.
It also:
• predicts resource consumption and cost implications for new or
changed applications
• predicts the effect on other interfacing applications.
12
IT Optimization and Service Management
Modeling involves one or more techniques must be selected when
modeling workload behavior and associated resource
requirements.
 Modeling Objectives:
– Predict the behavior of IT Services under a given volume and
variety of work using:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Pilot studies
Prototypes
Full scale benchmarks
Trend analysis
Analytical modeling
Simulation modeling
Baseline models
 Like modeling and forecasting during a solution development project:
– No single technique can apply to all situations
– One or more techniques must be selected when modeling
workload behavior and associated resource requirements
13
IT Optimization and Service Management
Application Sizing has a strong correlation with Performance
Engineering.
 Application Sizing Objectives
– Estimate resource requirements for new or changed application
– To ensure it meets required service levels
– Has to be an integral part of the applications lifecycle
 Application sizing has a finite life-span
– Initiated at Project Initiation stage for a new application
– Major Change to an existing Application
– It is performed at the beginning of the solution lifecycle and continues
through the development, testing and implementation phases.
 Service Levels defined
– During initial systems analysis and design
– Enables use of pertinent technologies & products
– Easier and less expensive to consider early in application lifecycle
 Modelling can be used within Application Sizing
 Applies to Application Packages (COTS):
– Research similar customers & do benchmarks
14
IT Optimization and Service Management
The Testing / Modeling Continuum is a guide to determining which
forecasting technique should be used in a particular situation.
Cost & Time
Benchmark
Linear
Extrapolation
Full
Production
Test
Testing +
Simulation
Model
Testing +
Analytic
Model
Scalability
Testing
Simulation
Model
Analytic
Model
Forecast Accuracy
15
+/- 10~15%
+/- 5~10%
IT Optimization and Service Management
Capacity modeling can be utilized to project the infrastructure
requirements for any production or test based application.
Basic Capacity Planning (Scalability) Methodology
 Identify key workloads / transactions and develop a performance metric
collection strategy
 Collect performance and configuration data required to construct the models
 Create and calibrate the model to base system metrics
 Utilize the calibrated baseline model to project future business scenarios
 Analyze modeling results and identify application and infrastructure
requirements
 Create and deliver final report and softcopy performance models
App
Model Projections
20
80
15
60
10
40
5
20
0
0
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Total Users
16
Response Time
(sec)
CPU Utilization
(%)
100
Server1
Server2
Server3
Tran1
Tran2
CTC
CTC
CTC
CTC
CTC
Dealer KPI
Dealer KPI
Dealer KPI
Dealer KPI
SAS Enterprise Guide
SAS Enterprise Guide
SAS Enterprise Guide
SAS Enterprise Guide
VPIPE
VPIPE
VPIPE
VPIPE
DRBA
DRBA
DRBA
Transaction
1a (Total)
4b (Total)
7a (Total)
8a (Total)
11b (Total)
15a (Total)
21a (Total)
22a (Total)
29a (Total)
34b (Total)
39a (Total)
45a (Total)
51a (Total)
54a (Total)
57a (Total)
59a (Total)
61a (Total)
67a (Total)
71a (Total)
75a (Total)
Time in Seconds
Application
Network
RespT ProcT NetT App Turns AppMsgs AppData NetPkts NetData
0.27
0.08 0.19
11
13
18,835
44
25,598
2.49
2.47 0.01
91
92 274,854
522
348,122
3.04
3.02 0.03
23
25 284,361
493
333,321
4.70
4.67 0.02
23
25 284,945
495
336,933
1.41
1.36 0.01
132
136 183,193
440
245,781
0.06
0.06 0.00
11
16
11,825
26
13,259
3.16
3.14 0.02
775
863 242,527
1,034
298,943
0.19
0.17 0.02
75
198 264,036
447
288,924
1.87
1.84 0.03
3,905
3,924 184,708
3,933
397,158
38.97 38.53 0.44
1,312
2,621 878,389
4,010 1,104,002
276.00 275.16 0.84
2,032
4,019 827,170
5,605 1,145,303
1.61
1.45 0.16
438
878 250,614
1,297
324,043
238.07 237.72 0.34
530
1,045 272,794
1,526
360,396
0.19
0.19 0.00
29
31
6,220
36
8,208
4.06
4.06 0.00
5
8
4,909
13
5,641
30.32 30.32 0.01
109
121
58,588
161
67,522
106.41 105.73 0.67
16,928
16,959 7,528,632 20,739 8,671,263
0.14
0.14 0.00
3
4
3,875
7
4,265
139.43 139.23 0.19
3
4
3,579
9
4,089
7.49
7.49 0.00
3
4
544
7
940
IT Optimization and Service Management
Monitor, Analyze, and Report Capacity Usage
Supervise Tuning
and Capacity
Delivery
Model and size
capacity
requirements
Produce and
maintain capacity
plan
Monitor, Analyze
and Report
Capacity Usage
Volumetrics
Requirements
and Early
Design
Estimation
and
Modeling
Technology
Research
17
Design,
Development
and Tracking
Live
Production
Test
Planning
and
Execution
IT Optimization and Service Management
Monitor, Analyze, and Report Capacity Usage
 Monitors should be established on all the components and for each of
the services.
 The data should be analyzed using, wherever possible, expert
systems to compare usage levels against thresholds.
 The results of the analysis should be included in reports, and
recommendations made as appropriate.
 There is a fundamental level of data collection and reporting
necessary in any environment before capacity and performance
services can be established.
 Monitors and Data Collection and Reporting suites might be required
at many levels, including but not limited to, the operating system, the
database, the transaction processor, middleware, network, Web
Services, and end-to-end (user) experience.
18
IT Optimization and Service Management
Objectives of Monitoring and Analysis
Monitoring objectives:
Measure the utilization of each resource and service on an on-going
basis to ensure:
– the optimum use of the hardware and software resources
– that all agreed service levels can be achieved
– that business volumes are as expected
Analysis objectives:
Identify trends from which the normal utilization and service level, or
baseline, can be establishes
Identify exception conditions in the utilization of individual components
or service thresholds by regular monitoring and comparison with the
baseline thresholds
Identify and report breaches or near misses in the SLAs
Predict future resource usage, or monitor predicted growth against
actual business growth (plan vs. actual)
19
IT Optimization and Service Management
Several categories of monitoring are within the scope of the Capacity
Management process.
20
Utilization Monitoring
Response Monitoring
Processor utilization
Memory utilization
Per cent processor per transaction
type
IO rates (physical and buffer) and
device utilization
Queue lengths
Disk utilization
Transaction rates
Response times
Batch duration
Database usage
Index usage
Hit rates
Concurrent user numbers
Network traffic rates.
Incorporating specific code within client and server
applications software (application instrumentation)
Using ‘robotic scripted systems’ with terminal
emulation software
Using distributed agent monitoring soft
Using specific passive monitoring systems
Durations for Monitoring
Real-time (events)
Historical
– Problem determination and root cause analysis
– Trend analysis
– Planning
IT Optimization and Service Management
Composite application monitoring and management offers end-to-end
visibility within applications and infrastructure components.
Secure Zone
DMZ
Voice
Services
Insesure Zone
VPN
Rel. DB
Process Server
Application Servers
Agent
Agent
Gateway
Internet
Portal
Service Registry
Agent
Partner
Services
Agent
Existing Applications
Web
Servers
Customers
Connectors
Enterprise Service Bus
Connectors
Adapters
Adapters
Agent
Web
Servers
Integrated
Service
Composite
Application
Management
Monitoring & Management
21
Intranet
Émployees
Infrastructure
Services
Security
Services
IT Optimization and Service Management
The ITIL Capacity Management sub-processes are carried out across
several key activities.
Source: ITIL Service Design
© Crown Copyright 2007
According to
ITIL, a CDB or
CMIS is a
cornerstone of
a successful
Capacity
Management
process.
22
IT Optimization and Service Management
Data Collection begins with establishing a methodology for ensuring
that data and measurement requirements are well understood and
can be achieved.
Data collected must account for resource usage, accommodate forecasts,
and provide for monitoring and tuning the system.
–Which tool(s) to use for data collection and reporting
• Metric data – data repository
• Non-metric data – document repository
–Frequency of collection and summarization
• Detail, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly
• Peak vs. average
–View of data / information
• Business, Application, or Project view
• Service view
• IT Component view
• Location view
–Levels of detail
• Shared vs. dedicated resources
• Workload level (i.e., process id) vs. transaction level
23
The CMIS (Capacity
Management Information
System) repository will be
the primary source of the
system data needed for
forecasting.
Carefully designed
categorization of data allows
for flexibility in reporting and
analysis from various views.
IT Optimization and Service Management
A diverse set of data and information can be compiled into a set of application
profiles valuable as both inputs and outputs throughout the Capacity
Management process.
 Business data
– Business transactions
– Schedule of business events
– Business drivers
 Service data
– Response Time service objectives / levels
– Elapsed time, End time, Turnaround Time, Throughput
– Maintenance windows
 Technical data
– CPU type, model, serial
– available capacity (MIPS), memory (Central and
Expanded), channels, number of cps, speed of cps,
weight
– Operating System, Subsystems
 Financial data
– Financial plans
– IT budgets, including specific budgets for hw and sw
expenditure
– external suppliers, for cost of new hw and sw upgrades
 Utilization data
– IT resource measurements by workload groupings
• CPU resource usage (utilization)
• Storage usage (utilization)
24
A composite of all this information can be
organized into a set of application or workload
profiles.
Nonmetric
and
metric
data
Application
xyz
Application
abc
Workload 123
Application or Workload Profiles provide
the workload characterization:
 Application behavior over time
 patterns, peaks
 Aggregation or groupings
 Growth requirements, growth scenarios
Various analysis and reporting are also derived
from use of the CDB or CMIS.
IT Optimization and Service Management
A common, standard set of resource usage data can be shared by
performance, capacity, and usage-based show-back to forecast and
manage IT demand.
Consistent, standardized data collection is crucial to ensure that the metrics needed for performance
monitoring, capacity planning (forecasting), and chargeback are readily available.
Raw Data
from Agents
Event Monitoring and Management
• Alerts, Alarms
• Thresholds
Short Term: performance bottleneck analysis
(IT resource, application, process, or thread level)
• Problem determination
• Root cause analysis
Long Term: Capacity Planning
• Trending, plan vs. actual analysis
• Forecasting
• Sizing
• Modeling, statistical regression
IT Accounting: usage-based chargeback
• Pricing
• Billing
• Forecasting
• Variance analysis
Time Range
25
Metrics collected from various platforms,
databases, sub-components and
applications address the entire range of
scope – from immediate alerts and problem
determination to long term capacity planning
and usage-based billing.
It is very important to determine which
metrics to collect on an ongoing basis,
with varying levels of detail applicable to
specific situations.
It is crucial to map resource
usage metrics to the
corresponding applications
and business units
consuming the resource.
IT Optimization and Service Management
Supervise Tuning and Capacity Delivery
Supervise Tuning
and Capacity
Delivery
Model and size
capacity
requirements
Produce and
maintain capacity
plan
Monitor, Analyze
and Report
Capacity Usage
Volumetrics
Requirements
and Early
Design
Estimation
and
Modeling
Technology
Research
26
Design,
Development
and Tracking
Live
Production
Test
Planning
and
Execution
IT Optimization and Service Management
Supervise Tuning and Capacity Delivery
 Outputs from monitoring, analyzing, and reporting activities are
examined and actions to tune individual resources or to re-balance
the available capacity are planned and initiated through Change and
Release Management or through the Service Desk in the case of
simple requests to other support groups or self-help for users.
 Some recommendations might involve changes in the way that the
users use the IT systems:
– moving discretionary workloads to off-peak periods
– performing a business function using a more efficient IT service path
– balancing services
– changing concurrency levels
– adding or removing resources
 The cycle then begins again, monitoring any changes made to
ensure they have had a beneficial effect and collecting the data for
the next day, week, or month.
27
IT Optimization and Service Management
Supervise Tuning and Capacity Delivery
 Service and component tuning:
– enables effective utilization of IT resources by identifying inefficient
performance, excess or insufficient capacity, and making
recommendations for optimization. It can
– balances the need to maintain service while reducing capacity
capability to reduce the cost of service.
 Understanding the combined performance impact of
various components within a complex infrastructure is
needed to accurately differentiate symptoms from actual
problems. This level of understanding provides the most
accurate baseline for future planning.
28
IT Optimization and Service Management
Various techniques can be used for tuning.
Tuning objectives:
 Identify areas of the configuration that could be tuned to better utilize the
system resource or improve the performance of the particular service
Implementation objectives:
 Introduce to the live operation services any changes that have been
identified by the monitoring, analysis and tuning activities
Tuning techniques that are of assistance include:
 Balancing workloads and traffic – transactions may arrive at the host or server at a
particular gateway, depending on where the transaction was initiated; balancing the
ratio of initiation points to gateways can provide tuning benefits
 Balancing disk traffic – storing data on disk efficiently and strategically, e.g. striping
data across many spindles may reduce data contention
 Database locking strategy - definition of an accepted locking strategy that specifies
when locks are necessary and the appropriate level, e.g. database, page, file, record
and row – delaying the lock until an update is necessary may provide benefits
 Efficient use of memory – may include looking to utilize more or less memory,
depending on the circumstances
29
IT Optimization and Service Management
Produce and Maintain Capacity Plan
Supervise Tuning
and Capacity
Delivery
Model and size
capacity
requirements
Produce and
maintain capacity
plan
Monitor, Analyze
and Report
Capacity Usage
Volumetrics
Requirements
and Early
Design
Estimation
and
Modeling
Technology
Research
30
Design,
Development
and Tracking
Live
Production
Test
Planning
and
Execution
IT Optimization and Service Management
Produce and Maintain Capacity Plan
The objective of this activity is to develop, maintain, test/model and revise
alternative approaches in satisfying various enterprise-shared resource
requirements.
•Inputs:
–forecast assumptions
–forecast projections
–subject matter expert recommendations
• Controls:
–financial constraints
–hardware constraints
–performance policies
–resource standards and definitions
–strategy and direction.
•Deliverables:
–agreed capacity plan
–alternative solutions
–optimized resource solution
31
IT Optimization and Service Management
Forecasted resource requirements (demand) can provide quantified IT resource
‘volumetric’ input (load) to testing or modeling studies that analyze the impact of
the projected IT resource load and exercise various solution alternatives to
satisfy the demand.
Establish Baseline:
Define Content and Scope
Select representative time Period
Determine Metrics to characterize
Determine time Durations
Develop forecast requirements (demand):
Define objectives of forecast
Determine forecasting horizon
Select appropriate set of forecasting techniques
Define growth scenarios
• Conservative, Most-likely, Aggressive
Quantify forecasted requirements (demand) into IT
resource requirements (load) over time
Conduct Testing / Modeling Studies:
Calibrate the baseline
Apply forecasted requirements (demand) against
baseline
Analyze impact of forecasted IT resource
volumetrics (load) over time
Exercise various solution alternatives
Document assumptions and risks
Recommend conservation actions
Capacity Plan:
Consolidate growth plans for all workloads
• existing workloads
• new applications, enhancements to applications
• changes to the IT environment / infrastructure
Recommend solutions
Document associated approaches, assumptions, risks
Track through plan vs. actual analysis
32
IT Optimization and Service Management
IT resource usage
Capacity planning is needed to help evaluate existing and new applications, as
well as changes in your business environment.
Each of the three major
sources of growth must
consider the impact of
business growth
expectations and planned
business events.
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
NEW APPLICATIONS
GROWTH IN EXISTING APPLICATIONS
BASELINE USAGE
t0
Time
t1
Capacity planning mission
The goal of the capacity planning process is to help ensure that sufficient costeffective capacity is available to meet existing service level commitments, as well as
business and application growth requirements.
33
IT Optimization and Service Management
Composite views of IT resource estimates are developed based on the
aggregation of the individual resource requirements.
 All of the requirements are summarized, or subtotaled, to
develop an aggregate or composite view of the overall,
enterprise-wide resource requirements or demand
 IT resource composite views can include:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Servers
Storage
Data Network
Voice Network
Middleware
Database
 A composite view of IT resource requirements can be
analyzed at various levels of breakout and detail:
–
–
–
–
34
Locations
Key applications/workloads
Business functions
Physical processors
IT Optimization and Service Management
Individual requirements are developed at a more detailed level that is
typically based on a reasonable set of key applications/workloads.
Workload grouping assists in determining what level of detail provides an
effective aggregation for a composite view that is reasonable and
appropriate for the Capacity Plan.
Workload grouping:
 Defining key applications/workloads
– Top resource load
 Group or Aggregate like application/workloads
– Similar resource usage characteristics
• By IT resource component: an application / workload could surface as ‘key’ in some
component areas and not in others
– Similar growth characteristics: one or more of these factors can justify
aggregation:
•
•
•
•
•
35
Similar seasonal trends
Similar growth rates (monthly, annually)
Similar historical trends
Similar business drivers (estimation or correlation)
Similar impact from business events
IT Optimization and Service Management
Validation of forecasts must be done on a regular basis. One common
approach is plan vs. actual analysis. If the actuals deviate significantly or
consistently from the plan then investigation into the cause and possible
adjustment to the forecast is necessary.
EXAMPLE ONLY
2084-305 CECA Average Monthly MIPS Used and Forecasted by LPAR
Shift xxx: startday - endday (starttime - endtime timezone)
2000
1800
1600
MIPS
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
A
ug
-0
9
9
-0
9
Ju
l
Ju
n0
ay
-0
9
M
-0
9
A
pr
-0
9
ar
M
b09
Fe
Ja
n09
D
ec
-0
8
O
ct
-0
8
N
ov
-0
8
Se
p08
A
ug
-0
8
-0
8
Ju
l
8
Ju
n0
ay
-0
8
M
-0
8
A
pr
-0
8
ar
M
b08
Fe
Ja
n08
D
ec
-0
7
O
ct
-0
7
N
ov
-0
7
0
Month
MVSP
DOFD
MVSZ
MVSI
Total installed (1983 MIPS)
36
MVSW
WSS1
MVSB
DOFZ
ACTUALS
DOFP
HRAP
PHYSICAL
80% - planning threshold (1586.4 MIPS)
IT Optimization and Service Management
Once the source of the deviation from plan has been determined then the
cause of the deviation must be investigated.
 What forecasting technique was used ?
– If business-driven, has the business driver
forecast changed ?
– If historical trend, has some change been
introduced that was not known ?
– Is there an unplanned business event or
project that has occurred and is potential
impacting the workload ?
 Is it possible to drill down further within the
workload to further isolate the source of the
deviation ?
– perhaps at the application level
 Are there any related problems that have been
reported, such as response time degradation,
etc. ?
 What is the degree of risk/impact from this
deviation ?
– Is a forecast adjustment necessary ?
 How do I adjust the forecast ?
– One time event only ?
– Seasonal adjustment ?
– Long term adjustment ?
 Why do I adjust the forecast ?
– What assumptions need to be modified ?
– Is a different forecasting technique more
appropriate ?
 What measurements do I have to quantify the
necessary adjustments ?
 What measurements were used to quantify the
baseline and the forecasts ?
 Was the baseline valid or does it have some
inherent problems or exceptions that need to
be resolved ?
 What were the assumptions ?
Without sufficient levels of data grouping, it can be very difficult to drill down to the
probable source of the deviation and therefore difficult to determine the cause of the
deviation of actual to plan.
37
IT Optimization and Service Management
The convergence of Capacity Management, Demand Management, and
Performance Engineering (PEMM) provides a powerful and truly full life
cycle methodology.
Demand Management
Patterns of Business
Activity and Demand
Policies
Performance Engineering Risk Assessment
Non-Functional Requirements
Performance Model
Capacity Management
Information System &
Capacity Plan
Performance Engineering & Management Method
(PEMM based)
Capacity Management Process
(ITIL® based)
Feasibility
38
Design
Development
Test
•
IBM’s Performance Engineering & Management Method (PEMM)
•
IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL®)
Deploy
Production
Optimize
IT Optimization and Service Management
Integrating work products into the existing phases or gates of the
SDLC, project management, and other key business and service
management processes helps to operationalize or institutionalize PE.
Phases & Work
Products
(Data and Tools)
PHASES
THEMES &
ACTIVITIES
PEOPLE
What the team needs to do
or to produce in each phase
of the project.
Organization
People in the project that
you need to work with to
achieve your objectives
Method / Process
(Themes / Activities)
Long term elements of system design,
development, and delivery that interact
with Performance Engineering
39
IT Optimization and Service Management
The role of the Performance Engineer or Performance Architect
requires multi-faceted skills and responsibilities.
 A person who carries out performance engineering duties and
leads a Performance Engineering project or team is referred to as
a Performance Engineer or Performance Architect.
 Performance Engineering is most successful when it is carried out
by a multi-disciplinary team representing the major business and
technical stakeholders in a project or solution:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
40
Requirements Analysts
Architects
Developers
Infrastructure and Application Engineers
Testers
Capacity Planners
Performance Analysts
IT Optimization and Service Management
41