Order Statistics • The order statistics of a set of random variables X1, X2,…, Xn are the same random variables arranged in increasing order. • Denote by X(1) = smallest of X1, X2,…, Xn X(2) = 2nd smallest of X1, X2,…, Xn X(n) = largest of X1, X2,…, Xn • Note, even if Xi’s are independent, X(i)’s can not be independent since X(1) ≤ X(2) ≤ … ≤ X(n) • Distribution of Xi’s and X(i)’s are NOT the same. week 10 1 Distribution of the Largest order statistic X(n) • Suppose X1, X2,…, Xn are i.i.d random variables with common distribution function FX(x) and common density function fX(x). • The CDF of the largest order statistic, X(n), is given by FX n x PX n x • The density function of X(n) is then f X n x d FX n x dx week 10 2 Example • Suppose X1, X2,…, Xn are i.i.d Uniform(0,1) random variables. Find the density function of X(n). week 10 3 Distribution of the Smallest order statistic X(1) • Suppose X1, X2,…, Xn are i.i.d random variables with common distribution function FX(x) and common density function fX(x). • The CDF of the smallest order statistic X(1) is given by FX 1 x PX 1 x 1 PX 1 x • The density function of X(1) is then f X 1 x d FX x dx 1 week 10 4 Example • Suppose X1, X2,…, Xn are i.i.d Uniform(0,1) random variables. Find the density function of X(1). week 10 5 Distribution of the kth order statistic X(k) • Suppose X1, X2,…, Xn are i.i.d random variables with common distribution function FX(x) and common density function fX(x). • The density function of X(k) is f X n x n! FX x k 1 1 FX x nk f X x k 1!n k ! week 10 6 Example • Suppose X1, X2,…, Xn are i.i.d Uniform(0,1) random variables. Find the density function of X(k). week 10 7 Some facts about Power Series • Consider the power series a t k 0 k k with non-negative coefficients ak. a t converges for any positive value of t, say for t = r, then it k • If k 0 converges for all t in the interval [-r, r] and thus defines a function of t on that interval. k • For any t in (-r, r), this function is differentiable at t and the series converges to the derivatives. ka t k 0 k 1 k • Example: For k = 0, 1, 2,… and -1< x < 1 we have that 1 x k 1 k m m x k m 0 (differentiating geometric series). week 10 8 Generating Functions • For a sequence of real numbers {aj} = a0, a1, a2 ,…, the generating function of {aj} is At a j t j j 0 if this converges for |t| < t0 for some t0 > 0. week 10 9 Probability Generating Functions • Suppose X is a random variable taking the values 0, 1, 2, … (or a subset of the non-negative integers). • Let pj = P(X = j) , j = 0, 1, 2, …. This is in fact a sequence p0, p1, p2, … • Definition: The probability generating function of X is X t p0 p1t p2t p j t j 2 • Since p j t j p j if |t| < 1 and for |t| < 1. j 0 p j 0 j 1 the pgf converges absolutely at least • In general, πX(1) = p0 + p1 + p2 +… = 1. • The pgf of X is expressible as an expectation: X t p j t j E t X j 0 week 10 10 Examples • X ~ Binomial(n, p), n j 0 j n X t p j q n j t j pt q n converges for all real t. • X ~ Geometric(p), X t pq j1t j j 1 converges for |qt| < 1 i.e. t pt 1 qt 1 1 q 1 p Note: in this case pj = pqj for j = 1, 2, … week 10 11 PGF for sums of independent random variables • If X, Y are independent and Z = X+Y then, Z t E t Z E t X Y E t X t Y E t X E t Y X t Y t • Example Let Y ~ Binomial(n, p). Then we can write Y = X1+X2+…+ Xn . Where Xi’s are i.i.d Bernoulli(p). The pgf of Xi is X t t 0 1 p t 1 p tp q. i The pgf of Y is then Y t E t X X 1 2 X n E t E t E t tp q . week 10 X1 X2 Xn n 12 Use of PGF to find probabilities • Theorem Let X be a discrete random variable, whose possible values are the nonnegative integers. Assume πX(t0) < ∞ for some t0 > 0. Then πX(0) = P(X = 0), ' X 0 P X 1, ' ' X 0 2P X 2, etc. In general, Xk 0 k! P X k , where Xk is the kth derivative of πX with respect to t. • Proof: week 10 13 Example • Suppose X ~ Poisson(λ). The pgf of X is given by e j j X t t j ! j 0 • Using this pgf we have that week 10 14 Finding Moments from PGFs • Theorem Let X be a discrete random variable, whose possible values are the nonnegative integers. If πX(t) < ∞ for |t| < t0 for some t0 > 1. Then ' X 1 E X , etc. In general, ' ' X 1 EX X 1, Xk 1 E X X 1 X 2 X K 1, Where Xk is the kth derivative of πX with respect to t. • Note: E(X(X-1)∙∙∙(X-k+1)) is called the kth factorial moment of X. • Proof: week 10 15 Example • Suppose X ~ Binomial(n, p). The pgf of X is πX(t) = (pt+q)n. Find the mean and the variance of X using its pgf. week 10 16 Uniqueness Theorem for PGF • Suppose X, Y have probability generating function πX and πY respectively. Then πX(t) = πY(t) if and only if P(X = k) = P(Y = k) for k = 0,1,2,… • Proof: Follow immediately from calculus theorem: If a function is expressible as a power series at x=a, then there is only one such series. A pgf is a power series about the origin which we know exists with radius of convergence of at least 1. week 10 17 Moment Generating Functions • The moment generating function of a random variable X is mX t E etX mX(t) exists if mX(t) < ∞ for |t| < t0 >0 • If X is discrete mX t etx p X x . x • If X is continuous mX t etx f X x dx. • Note: mX(t) = πX(et). week 10 18 Examples • X ~ Exponential(λ). The mgf of X is mX t E e tX 0 etxex dx • X ~ Uniform(0,1). The mgf of X is e dx mX t E e tX 1 tx 0 week 10 19 Generating Moments from MGFs • Theorem Let X be any random variable. If mX(t) < ∞ for |t| < t0 for some t0 > 0. Then mX(0) = 1 m' X 0 E X , m' ' X 0 E X 2 , etc. In general, m Xk 0 E X k , Where m Xk is the kth derivative of mX with respect to t. • Proof: week 10 20 Example • Suppose X ~ Exponential(λ). Find the mean and variance of X using its moment generating function. week 10 21 Example • Suppose X ~ N(0,1). Find the mean and variance of X using its moment generating function. week 10 22 Example • Suppose X ~ Binomial(n, p). Find the mean and variance of X using its moment generating function. week 10 23 Properties of Moment Generating Functions • mX(0) = 1. • If Y=a+bX, a, b R then the mgf of Y is given by mY t E etY E eatbtX eat E ebtX eat mX bt . • If X,Y independent and Z = X+Y then, mZ t E etZ E etX tY E etX etY E etX E etY mX t mY t week 10 24 Uniqueness Theorem • If a moment generating function mX(t) exists for t in an open interval containing 0, it uniquely determines the probability distribution. week 10 25 Example • Find the mgf of X ~ N(μ,σ2) using the mgf of the standard normal random variable. • Suppose, X 1 ~ N 1 , 12 , X 2 ~ N 2 , 22 independent. Find the distribution of X1+X2 using mgf approach. week 10 26