National Perspectives on
Disciplinary Health Trends
Christopher M. Keane
American Geological Institute
25-26 February 2005
Williamsburg, VA
Disciplinary Health

Facets of the discipline
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Departments
Primary industries
Government
Secondary Industries
Economic growth across sectors
Steady human resource pipeline
Public acknowledgement
University departments are lynchpin in the supply
chain
How are the geosciences doing?

How do we define doing “well”

Is our perspective domestic or global?

Probably are doing better than expected!

Departments are changing
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Not all change is successful
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Biggest question is “market rationalization”
Self-Selecting Department Categories
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Major research departments
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“Second-tier” state and private departments
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Apparent peak risk-group
4-Year schools finding way between education and research
Traditional B.S. granting departments
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Traditionally strong programs
Comprehensive with history of strong geoscience
Long tradition of successful programs
Focus on educating, not training
Community Colleges
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Appear not to be making as big as expected impact
Majority of recent closures and consolidations
What changes are
afoot?
Statistical Profile of
Academic Geoscience
US Geoscience Student Enrollment
Undergraduate and Graduate Levels, 1955-2003
40000
35000
Undergraduate
30000
Majors
25000
20000
15000
10000
Graduate
5000
0
1955
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Total Degrees in Geoscience
1973-2002
8000
7000
BS
MS
PhD
Degrees
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Year
Female Geoscience Enrollment and Degrees
1974-2002
45
40
Percent Female
Enrolled
35
30
Graduated
25
20
15
10
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Geoscience Theses & Dissertation Topics
1950s vs 1980s
Environmental/Hydro
Economic Geology
1950-59
1980-89
Geochemistry
Geophysics
Igneous/Metamorphic
Stratigraphy/Paleo
Sedimentary Geology
Structure/Tectonics
Other
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Number of Theses and Dissertations
7000
AGI 1991
Geoscience Faculty Specialties
1970-1997
Number of Faculty Reporting
3000
2500
2000
1500
Year
1970
1980
1990
1997
# of Depts
698
704
887
915
1000
500
0
AGI 1997
Departmental “Focus”
U.S. BS-Degree Granting
700
600
Departments
500
Solid Earth
400
Environmental
Physical Science
300
200
100
0
1980
1990
Year
2000
Departmental “Focus”
U.S. MS-Degree Granting
350
300
Departments
250
200
Solid-Earth
Environmental
150
Physical Science
100
50
0
1980
1990
Year
2000
Departmental “Focus”
U.S. Ph.D.-Degree Granting
250
Departments
200
Solid-Earth
150
Environmental
Physical Science
100
50
0
1980
1990
Year
2000
Departmental Closures

70 Departments have closed or merged
since 1999
 Large number of community college
programs have dropped geoscience
 Wholesale changing to environmental
programs predict demise?
 Political instability allows for “fiscal
management”
Degree-Granting Diversity
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
MS
MS
BS
MS
BS
BS
1980
1990
2000
Departments granting over 25% of all degrees
Departments granting the second quartile of all degrees
Departments granting the second half of all degrees
100 Departments
Diversity of Faculty Origins
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All-Time Diversity
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1980
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50% - 39 Departments
25% - 12 Departments
1990
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50% of Faculty from 40 Departments
25% of Faculty from 12 Departments
50% - 40 Departments
25% - 13 Departments
2000
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50% - 39 Departments
25% - 12 Departments
Graduate Schools of Faculty
First quartile of production

All-Time

2000
1.
California (Berkeley)
MIT
Columbia
Washington
Wisconsin
Stanford
Penn State
Illinois
Arizona
Harvard
California (Los Angeles)
Michigan
1.
Arizona
MIT
Texas
Columbia
Wisconsin
Georgia
Minnesota
Stanford
Delaware
California (Los Angeles)
Michigan
Florida
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Introductory Geoscience Enrollments
2004
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Totals from AGI Survey on US Enrollment in intro
geoscience
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114,295 in Physical Geology or equiv.
22,912 in Environmental Geology
3,631 in National Park Geology
Publishers cite ~225,000 intro geoscience books
per year
With 34% response rate, publisher’s numbers are
probably accurate
Consider this:


Over 1 million current college students have taken
geoscience (6% of the total)
Only 0.1% of college students are geoscience majors
today!
Where do students take intro geoscience?
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Community College
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Non-Ph.D. 4-Year Departments
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15% of all responding departments
Teach 12.5% of intro students
58% of all responding departments
Teach 61% of intro students
Ph.D Granting Departments
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26% of responding departments
Teach 26.5% of intro students
How does this
reflect “out there”
The statistics for the other
99.95% of the geoscience
economy
Occupations of Geoscience Degree Holders
1993
Medical
1%
Finance
1%
OTHER
15%
Legal
1%
Geosciences
35%
Other Sci & Eng
4%
Technology
5%
Sci/Eng Tech
6%
Agriculture
3%
Env/Civil Eng
3%
Insurance K12 Ed
3%
4%
Business
14%
Higher Ed
5%
NSF, 1993
Degree Fields for Working Geoscientists
1993
Business/Finance
Other Phys. Sci 1%
Law Bioscience
2%
0%
2%
Agriculture
3%
Engineering
8%
Mathematics
2%
Geography
2%
Geoscience
80%
NSF, 1993
US Geoscience Employment
AGI Demographic Survey 1986
Retired/Unemployed
10%
Environmental
7%
Other
5%
Academic
7%
Mining
9%
Petroleum
50%
Total Population 120,000
Government
12%
US Geoscience Employment
NSF National Survey of College Graduates 1993
Retired/Unemployed
23%
Government
12%
Environment
12%
Academic
11%
Mining
7%
Total Population 125,000
Petroleum
34%
US Geoscience Employment
AGI Demographic Survey 2000
Unemployed/Retired
6%
Other
6%
Petroleum
30%
Academia
20%
Mining
8%
Government
16%
Environmental
14%
The Geoscience Economy
160.00
Billions of Dollars
140.00
120.00
Oil/Gas
Environmental
Academic R&D
Coal
Mining
Fed R&D
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Year
Source: US BEA/NSF
GeoNP vs. GNP
140
10000
9000
GNP
8000
130
7000
120
6000
5000
110
100
GeoNP
4000
3000
2000
90
Billions of Dollars (GNP)
Billions of Dollars (Geo)
150
1000
80
0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Source: US BEA/NSF
The Geoscience Bachelor’s Degree

Over 50% of Geoscience BS recipients go
onto other fields
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Employment value of BS in the
Geosciences is far below other physical
sciences and engineering
Sources: AGI, 2002, AIP, 2003
Geoscience Master’s Degree

Degree of choice for employment
 Unique in the physical sciences
 Salary Range is $25K-$69K
 Mean salary is $38K
 0.5% failed to find employment upon
graduation
 82% of programs focus on Ph.D.
preparation, yet….
 Only 28% go on to Ph.D. program
Sources: AGI, 2003
Geoscience Ph.D. Degree

Excellent employment and job satisfaction

>97% find suitable employment
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54% going onto PostDocs
 Wide range of average salaries
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$35K for PostDoc
$42K for Faculty position
$49K for Government
$69K for Industry
Sources: AGI/AGU, 2003
Future Directions

Defining B.S. Degree as “liberal” science
degree

Better develop MS programs as
professionally preparatory

Provide opportunities at Ph.D. level for
non-traditional careers
What is the role of departments?

Train for careers in the geosciences

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Educate the broad public

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Core departments do this well
Professional opportunities are not unlimited
4-year programs do this well
Is this sufficient value to administrators?
Provide support services for university
community

Does existing in the shadows avoid targeting
or make one expendable